Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/06/2016
Doug Norrie
Via Keith Allison

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/6/16 - Early Slate

Baseball isn't f@#$ing around in this early season. They are bringing it all day, everyday and it's got us on our toes for sure. Full day slates since Monday has meant we basically haven't slept. That's cool. I mean our families are resentful but who cares about them? It's baseball season.

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PITCHER

Patrick CorbinPatrick Corbin FD 7200 DK 7600
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @ARI
FD - 35.03 DK - 19.2
James and I used to be a total nerd baseball league together. It was statistically simulated games, no prize money in a league that had been around since our friend's dads put it together in the early 80's. We spent way, way, way too much time on it. But one of our crowned jewel pickups was Corbin in 2012 or 2013. I can't remember. Then he got injured. This is why we do DFS now. Corbin came back from injury last season and put up some fine numbers on excellent peripherals. I don't love the ballpark, but he's so cheap against a Rockies team that isn't exactly full of mashers. He's the biggest money line favorite on the early slate and even for Chase the expected total isn't too high.
For our system I can already tell he's going to be in every lineup. We went out on a limb a couple times with this guy last year and he paid. Let's roll it back.

Jose FernandezJose Fernandez FD 11200 DK 11700
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @MIA
FD - 38.07 DK - 21.32
There's always the looming issue of an innings cap on Fernandez and I worry a little bit how that effects his game-to-game projection. Last season the Marlins would pull him early from time to time even if he was cruising along. But he's easily the best arm going on the early slate of games. If you are a little squeamish on the Corbin pick, I get it. Bad ballpark and cheap guy after all. If that's the case, going with the best arm and most expected raw points isn't the worst option.

 

DFSR 705x90

CATCHER

Early Slate

Buster PoseyBuster Posey FD 4000 DK 4600
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @MIL
FD - 8.89 DK - 7.07
Typically known for his work against lefties, Posey's coming off a season that saw him be perfectly acceptable against the righties as well. He OPS'ed in the mid .800s and though Taylor Jungmann has some K stuff, dude walks a ton of guys as well. If you are rocking Corbin on the early slate then you can fit just about any other bat you want. Posey will be in all of my lineups at catcher. It's an easy call for me here.

Consider Russell Martin if Posey doesn't play

 

FIRST BASE

Early Slate

Brandon BeltBrandon Belt FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.01 DK - 7.1
It's going to be pretty easy and advantageous to stack the Giants once again in this afternoon slate. They are going in a fantastic hitter's park that was only behind Coors and Great American Ballpark last year in terms of playing up the long ball. Belt as a middle of the order guy against Jungmann looks solid on FanDuel though I think he's a little pricey on DraftKings considering his profile.

Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD 4700 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.07 DK - 9.76
I know he's expensive, but like I said with Posey, as long as you are running with Corbin you can do a lot with salary today. Goldschmidt hasn't fully climbed into his superstar price tier yet because of the soft early season pricing so you are still buying relatively low on his other-worldly skillset. He went yard last night and there's more where that came from. When it comes to raw points, there aren't many other guys with his kind of upside.

 

SECOND BASE

Robinson CanoRobinson Cano FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.85
Oh yeah, it's pick on Colby Lewis time. Lewis is just the wrong type of pitcher for Arlington, a flyball guy in a park that isn't forgiving to that kind of pitcher. Lewis has been brutal the last couple of seasons, especially against lefties and has sported an xFIP creeping into the high 4's. I'm stacking Mariners and Giants almost exclusively on this slate and will have Cano in all lineups.

Consider Logan Forsythe but only if you like hate Cano for personal reasons

 

SHORTSTOP

Ketel MarteKetel Marte FD 2500 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.07 DK - 8.24
Remember when I said Colby Lewis was bad against lefties? Rest assured, he's also weak against righties as well. He's definitely the main arm we want to target on this slate and getting as many Mariners up at the top of the lineup is the way to go. Marte's been hitting in the two hole and that should continue today. I'm not trying to cop out by writing up only one guy per position on this slate, but with Marte, Cano and Seager below it really isn't close as far as our system is concerned.

Consider Jean Segura who's made us some money from the leadoff slot

 

THIRD BASE

Kyle SeagerKyle Seager FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.76 DK - 10.08
Ditto all the things from above with regards to Lewis. Seager comes with the added bonus of hitting righties better for his career even though there was a bit of a drop off in '15. It doesn't have me overly concerned and he just goes right along with the M's stack.

Evan LongoriaEvan Longoria FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TB
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.47
Longoria is in the mix for two reasons. One, on FanDuel you can only start 4 guys on the same team and you'll be fighting to get those Seattle dudes in. Two, he's amazing against lefties for his career and is coming off another spectacular season in that split where he OPS'd close to 1.000. He's just a shade cheaper than Seager as well which could help filling out the rest of the lineup.

 

OUTFIELD

Norichika AokiNorichika Aoki FD 2500 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.82 DK - 7.95
It's difficult to overstate just how valuable it is to leadoff when we are focusing on DFS value. That added plate appearance expectation you get in a single game just by being slotted first is something you are going to get sick of us talking about. So get used to it. Aoki is coming super cheap in a game projected as the highest on the board against the worst pitcher. This one's easy.

David PeraltaDavid Peralta FD 3400 DK 3700
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.36 DK - 8.34
Socrates BritoSocrates Brito FD 2200 DK 3200
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @ARI
FD - 6.94 DK - 5.71
I had expected Peralta to get the start in the two hole yesterday against Bettis, but the D-Backs went with Brito there instead. Brito is primarily a speed guy with just a little bit of pop. Our system really likes him hitting two in front of Goldie and Peralta and he is coming as an excellent punt play right now. I suspect it won't last if he's hitting here in the order.

Strongly consider Delino Deshields

Peralta meanwhile is a dude who slays righty pitching. He had a .936 OPS and .397 wOBA last season against righties and as long as he's hitting around the middle of the order (which he will be) then we are getting him at an extreme discount. These two are going in a great hitter's park and are two of the bargains on this slate.

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17 Visitor Comments

  1. Hey guys any thoughts on Fan Duels new scoring system? I likes how outs would be a negative now it’s just 0. Was it to make scores look better? Now I feel players can take a chance on a power hitter with no repercussions.

    • *liked

    • I don’t know why but I sure like seeing those high numbers!

  2. Looks good, lets have another great MLB day. Optimal squeezed out all contest last night.

  3. Vito I actually love the new scoring system, only reason I continued playing. You also have to consider that taking a chance on power has the same reward as solid contact and RBI/steal/R potential. Get all the “guaranteed” counting stats and higher floor for contact hitters when they slump for a day or two.

  4. Allen good point. Opening day I was seeing the projected numbers and thought damn until I looked into the new rules on FD. Good luck to all. I made a little on opening day and lost about a quarter of the winnings yesterday. Looking to bounce back today.

  5. Really, FD didn’t change much of anything except multiplied everything by 3 and removed the penalty for outs, right? DFS players dig higher numbers just like chicks dig the long ball, I guess.

  6. Posey isn’t on the optimizer and he’s playing

  7. Why did Posey disappear from the system? He’s in the lineup….and was in your optimal until about 20 minutes ago….now no SF catchers…?

  8. Fixed. Got bad data from our injury feed. Working on why. He’s fixed. now.

  9. Is weather affecting the sf stacks?

  10. Martin is hitting leadoff over aoki in Seattle today

  11. The optimizer seems really buggy today…..all over the place minute to minute….just saw Goldy go from less than 1 PROJ PT back to over 12….what’s going on? Can we trust it?

    • The numbers in there now are good. Working on backtesting why everyone reverted for a minute.

  12. Weather for the sf game!!! Miller park has a roof!! Am I missing something?

    • It’s a default based on zip code. We are working on just taking it out for domes.

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