Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/11/16

Late season NBA hurts. Late scratches of great fantasy plays are the norm, so we're performing without a net in a lot of ways. That said, we've still got just enough certainty left that it's not a complete crapshoot. The East is locked up, so there's no real telling what Chicago will do tonight. The West is still open, with Houston, Dallas, and Utah still playing for something. After that... it's anybody's guess. Let's go through it the old fashioned way - position by position - and see what we can figure out.

Full disclaimer - do NOT play slates like these unless you can follow news right up to lineup locks, and this is a time of year where late-swap options really help (thanks, DraftKings). And, as always, good teams with nothing to play for are much riskier than teams long eliminated or teams still fighting for something. You have been warned.

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POINT GUARD

Ramon Sessions - FD 4200 DK 4600
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.07 DK Proj. Pts - 25.85
Washington has thrown up the white flag, and this has meant wonderful things for Ramon Sessions' daily fantasy basketball value. He's scored 39+ fantasy points in 2 of his last three games, which, if you're new to DFS, is pretty damned awesome on these price points. He's dominating the ball (as evidenced by his double digit assists in those 2 big games), and completing running the offense. Brooklyn is about as good a match-up as he could hope for as well. Not only have they sucked against point guards all season, but they're playing without anything resembling NBA players as well, so a blowout is less likely than it normally would be. I'll be playing Sessions everywhere.

Darren Collison - FD 6300 DK 6100
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 27.34 DK Proj. Pts - 28.81
With the big caveat that Rondo will need to sit again. But after sitting him in the last game at the Sleep Train Arena, I'm not sure why he'd go out there for this one. If he's absent again, Collison could be in for something close to what he did against OKC - a full 27/5/8 line that is actually representative of what he can do in a Cousins and Rondo-less game. Monitor this one, of course, but my hunch is that we don't see Rondo in this one either, and that we'll get 37+ minutes of Collison against one of the league's fastest teams and worst defenses.

Tyler Ennis - FD 4100 DK 3900
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.28 DK Proj. Pts - 23.21
Shane Larkin - FD 4600 DK 4400
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 22.18 DK Proj. Pts - 23.34
The speculative super-cheap guys. God, I kinda hate this time of year. But I simply can't walk away. These two are both big tourney plays for me, but have some things going for them. Both have terrific match-ups, mid-high thirty minute upside, and have put up 30+ fantasy points games recently. And they've both had some brutal ones as well. Larkin feels safer? I guess? But man, I can't see playing either for 50/50s.
 

A high upside, huge risk guy: Russell Westbrook. This does NOT feel like the spot to spend up for safety, especially since you won't know his status definitively in advance of lineup lock in all likelihood. But he could seriously destroy the Lakers.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 10600 DK 10900
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 56.17 DK Proj. Pts - 59.3
Yawn. The sites refuse to price him appropriately, so he'll be a universal start again tonight. As one of the few teams with something to play for, the Rockets will trot him out for 42+ minutes yet again to ensure they don't miss the playoffs on account of not having their best player out there. Harden put up an absurd 40/4/13/4 against the Lakers, and while the T-Wolves are certainly tougher against opposing shooting guards, passing on Harden is cash game suicide tonight.

Rodney Hood - FD 5500 DK 5200
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.75 DK Proj. Pts - 30.1
Hood didn't drop science on the Nuggets the way I expected him to, but then, he didn't wind up getting his full run of minutes since the game was out of hand. It's the very definition of a must win, and the Mavericks' back court is some combination of exhausted (Matthews) and depleted (everybody else). The safest non-Harden shooting guard on the slate, for me.

A sea of speculation: A lot of guys I could list here. Both Kobe and Jordan Clarkson have great upside for the Lakers if the Thunder don't go full bore. Khris Middleton is coming off basically his best game of the season, and his price hasn't moved at all. But if I'm going safe, I'm playing the guys above, who have something on the line.

Keep an eye on: The situation in Washington. If Beal and Wall both sit, it could mean another heavy dose of Marcus Thornton. Buckets put up 28 fantasy points in 31 minutes against the Hornets, and has a much better match-up here with the hapless Nets.

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SMALL FORWARD

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 9700 DK 10200
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 46.74 DK Proj. Pts - 47.85
It's late season NBA - which means we're recommending nearly the same guys every night. Sorry about that. But even if you look past the terrific run Giannis on - rebounding and assisting the position like no one else - the match-up itself here is just great. No Oladipo means the Magic are going to try and chase Giannis with Evan Fournier (lol) or Mario Hezonja (lolololol). This is going to be a complete trainwreck. I'm going to have a lot of fun watching two lottery teams duke it out on a Monday! One of the perks of DFSing for a living!

Rudy Gay - FD 7100 DK 7200
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 36.65 DK Proj. Pts - 38.12
Gay's usage goes from 22% with Cousins out there to 27% without him, and it's climbed even more as the rest of the Kings have folded around him as well. Gay's been the Kings offense and defense in their last two games, pairing his normally strong scoring and rebounding (for the position) with an incredible 4 blocks and 9 steals in his last 2. Some of that almost has to be unsustainable, but we're looking at vintage "this is my team" Gay right now, and I just love him against one of the league's most generous small forward defenses.

Trevor Ariza - FD 5800 DK 5900
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 27.97 DK Proj. Pts - 31.19
Gordon Hayward - FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 33.16 DK Proj. Pts - 35.09
The beacons of safety for tonight, yet again. I wrote these guys up as a pair last night and they went ahead and put up 5x+ points per dollar (Ariza) and 6.5x points per dollar (Hayward) in a couple of nice match-ups. Both the T-Wolves and the Mavs have been league average against small forwards this season, but I'll give the nod to Ariza here since he'll be up against a team with nothing to play for, and the Mavs will be trying their best. Still, I don't think you can go wrong with either for your double-up purposes.

POWER FORWARD

The hardest position by a mile today, since the teams with something to play for have so many question marks at the four. The Rockets don't have a PF, the Mavs have a tired and suddenly ineffective Dirk (with a tough match-up), and Derrick Favors is questionable after being a late scratch last game. Puke. Let's see what we can dig up.

Jabari Parker - FD 6500 DK 6200
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 30.54 DK Proj. Pts - 31.51
He was bad last game, and some of that can be attributed to Khris Middleton going berserk, but a lot can be attributed to some early foul trouble that shaved 20% of his normal minutes away. With Aaron Gordon likely missing this game as well, Jabari Parker will be looking at some combination of Ersan Ilyasova, Jason Smith, and possibly Andrew Nicholson. Which is to say, not a single dude that can cover him for even a possession. On a night where you're guaranteed some uncertainty at the position, I'm building around Jabari unless some delicious punts (like Trey Lyles) bubble up.

Alex Len - FD 5700 DK 5400
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 28.44 DK Proj. Pts - 28.94
Markieff Morris - FD 5800 DK 5700
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 28.69 DK Proj. Pts - 29.75
Mirza Teletovic - FD 5600 DK 5600
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.41 DK Proj. Pts - 30.62
Team speculation. Mirza has been the steadiest of the three, but he's a freaking sub. Len has huge upside, but foul trouble has bothered him basically every day. Everything was trending in the right direction for Markieff, but then he randomly played just 19 minutes against the Hornets. And yet, he should have a great deal to do for the Wiz if their two biggest usage guys are out. I'm at a loss, but I'll tell you this - one of these guys is going to have a monster game today. Up to you to figure out who!

Keep a close eye on the Derrick Favors situation. If he sits, Trey Lyles becomes a phenomenal play on near minimum prices in a game where a lot will be asked of him. He played 32 minutes against the Nuggets and scored 31.2 fantasy points, and was good in a starting role earlier this season as well. I'd play him in double-ups if Favors is out again.

CENTER

Rudy Gobert - FD 5700 DK 5200
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 30.71 DK Proj. Pts - 31.3
Gobert was called on for his highest minutes total since early February against the Nuggets, and put up 45 fantasy points on a very Gobert-ish line of 16/14 with 6 blocks. The Mavs are a significantly tougher match-up if you go by season-long metrics, but they're only getting 17-22 minutes a game out of Zaza right now, and their other big men are a lot less intimidating. He'll be the best rebounder in this game by a mile (especially if Favors sits), and his dirt cheap prices (on DK in particular) make him a great play in any format.

Dwight Howard - FD 6400 DK 6000
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 32.49 DK Proj. Pts - 33.1
Karl-Anthony Towns - FD 8800 DK 8900
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 41.64 DK Proj. Pts - 42.38
We gave you Dwight as a play against the Lakers, and he put up a very solid 36 fantasy points on 33 minutes. With the Rockets still kicking, he'll be called upon for at least similar minutes here against the man he's listed aside right here. His price reflects a season of up and down minutes, so I think it's safe to call him a value play with some upside if things break just right. Towns, meanwhile, is playing huge minutes for the Timberwolves right now, and if you find yourself in a position to spend up at center he's our highest raw points guy at the position today.

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