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With only one game in the afternoon we will be concentrating on the main slate which gives us 14 games on Friday night. It is a great night to pay up for your starting pitcher as Sale, Kershaw, Bumgarner and Greinke are all on the bump.
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PITCHER
Chris Sale FD 12000 DK 12200
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @TB
FD - 41.29 DK - 23.17
It has been a tale of different starts to the season for the Rays and White Sox. The Rays have struggled, starting 3-6, and sit in the basement of the tough AL East while the White Sox have started red hot winning seven of their first nine games. Sale's first two start were almost identical as he went seven innings allowing three earned runs in each game. He struck out eight vs. Oakland and six vs. Cleveland and now gets to face a Rays team that is struggling vs. lefties so far this year ranking 24th in wOBA(.274) vs. southpaws.
Zack Greinke FD 10400 DK 10000
Opponent - SD (Shields) Park - @SD
FD - 36.93 DK - 20.52
After a nightmare start to the season with his new team Greinke gets to pitch in Petco tonight and has a terrific opportunity to get that first win out of the way. It was encouraging to see him record eight strikeouts in his last start which right around his career mark of 8.11 K/9. While he doesn't have the strikeout upside as Sale or Kershaw, he gets to pitch in one of the best pitchers parks in the majors and comes at a nice discount which is perfect for cash games. If recency bias plays a part he could also be a low owned GPP option on Friday night.
Jake Odorizzi FD 7900 DK 8300
Opponent - CHW (Sale) Park - @TB
FD - 32.28 DK - 16.91
While he is going up against our top rated pitcher on the day I feel both are viable options for cash games. Odorizzi comes at a nice mid tier price and allows you to be a bit contrarian with so many elite options on Friday. He isn't going to get many wins as the Rays are one of the lowest scoring teams in the majors to start the year but he does provide a ton of strikeout upside with a K rate of 8.5 for his career.
CATCHER
Wilson Ramos FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.69 DK - 7.76
There isn't a lot to love about the catcher position tonight, especially at the top of the salary. Whenever this is the case I love going cheap at catcher. Ramos has been an excellent source of cheap value so far this season with hits in five of his first seven games and picked up his first home run yesterday to help the Nats sweep the Braves and push their win streak to five games. Ramos has been hitting 7th in the order which is alright when paying down for catcher, especially with the talent ahead of him.
Matt Wieters FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.24 DK - 8.12
He has been striking out at over a 30% clip so far this year(no longer an issue on FanDuel) with an average in my mid .200's but has been making teams pay when he makes contact. He has picked up six RBI and has picked up a hit in five of his first seven games. He is a switch hitting catcher who is better hitting from the right side. Wieters and the right handed hitting Orioles get a great matchup on Friday as they face lefty Martin Perez who isn't going to strike anybody out(only 3 K's in first two starts). Wieters has faced Perez six times in his career which is a small sample size but it's positive to see he has picked up three hits in those at bats.
FIRST BASE
Prince Fielder FD 3300 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Worley) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.58 DK - 10.69
While he hasn't had a multi hit game yet this year he has drove in 10 runs and and added a dinger. The numbers indicate he should be able to turn things around soon in the average department as he is currently hitting below a .240 BABIP while he has been over .300 for his career. He gets a terrific matchup on Friday vs. Vance Worley who doesn't hold much upside. With all the elite pitching on the slate tonight this could very well be one of the highest scoring games. Get as much exposure as possible.
Lucas Duda FD 2500 DK 4800
Opponent - CLE (Anderson) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.7
While I prefer Fielder at the same price on DraftKings, Duda is just too cheap on FanDuel for a power hitter in the cleanup spot of the Mets order. He followed up a breakout season in 2014 where he hit 30 home runs with another impressive season in 2015 picking up 27 home runes. If the Mets can stay healthy(I am looking at you David Wright) Duda is sure to get a more than enough opportunity to meet or pass his career highs in HR's and RBI.
SECOND BASE
Dee Gordon FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - ATL (Perez) Park - @MIA
FD - 12.02 DK - 10.03
The Marlins start a three series on Friday with the Braves who have yet to win a game in nine tries and have allowed 55 runs to their opponents. As the season progress's you are going to see a lot hitting picks coming against Braves pitching. Gordon is a .300+ hitter at the top of the Marlins batting order and has huge steal and run upside with talented hitters behind him. Of his 11 hits so far in 2016 he has two and doubles and two triples with five runs and two stolen bases. He makes a terrific cash game play as he can get you fantasy points in a ton of different ways. Stack him with the 2/3/4 hitters for some big GPP upside on Friday.
Rougned Odor FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Worley) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.36 DK - 9.11
If you are looking to save at 2B tonight head down the list and roll with Odor tonight. I don't like that he hits 7th in the lineup which will limit him to GP only for me but he comes with some nice extra base upside. While he started the year cold with only one hit on his first four games, he is starting to catch fire with hits in five of his last seven games. Of the eight hits he has on the season, four have been doubles and one a home run.
SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa FD 4600 DK 5000
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.95 DK - 11.07
In his second season in the big leagues he has quickly joined the conversation as the best shortstop in the game. He provides fantasy value in almost every category. He gets great contact and is very patient for a young hitter with an average K% and BB%. In 2015 he showed signs of elite power with 22 home runes and has already picked up three in the early 20-16 season. He hits in a prime spot in the Astros order right behind George Springer and Jose Altuve and the Astros get a terrific matchup vs. Mike Pelfrey on Friday night. Load up on the top of their order.
Asdrubal Cabrera FD 2600 DK 4000
Opponent - CLE (Anderson) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.15 DK - 7.29
This is the least sexy pick of the night but he makes a great cash game punt play on FanDuel tonight in the mid $2K range. He hits seventh in the lineup for the Mets which lowers his value a ton, especially on DraftKings where he is quite pricey. He has shown a bit of consistency so far in 2016 with hits in six of his first eight games and does have some power upside as he has clubbed at least 14 home runes in four straight seasons.
THIRD BASE
Anthony Rendon FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.64 DK - 9.21
Another player who has a very attractive price on FanDuel. He hits second in the Nationals lineup with Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy hitting behind him. That is enough to sell me on him right there. He has gotten off to a slow start with only eight hits and no RBI and has managed to score only five runs. His OBP is around 30 points below his career average which can be related to his low 7% walk rate. If he be a bit more patient and get on base a few more times a game the upside is through the roof on FanDuel below $3K.
Adrian Beltre FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Worley) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.63
Again I am picking on the Vance Worley as he just isn't going to strike very many guys out with a career 6.94 K/9 ratio. It is a great matchup for Beltre who doesn't strike out often and has .321 vs. right handed pitching in 2016. The Rangers took game 1 of this series 6-3 last night while Beltre went 1-3 with a walk and a run scored. Stack the heart of the Rangers lineup which will provide huge power upside on Friday.
OUTFIELD
Mitch Moreland FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Worley) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.68 DK - 9.23
Nomar Mazara FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - BAL (Worley) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.73 DK - 9.39
Mazara's been hitting second for the Rangers which as you know from reading us, is kind of a big deal. That kind of plate appearance expectation makes just the kind of difference we are looking for when talking about when it's a dude like this. Oh it helps he's a top prospect and has raked through the minors. The Ballpark in Arlington helps in that it buoys power all around and the Rangers are a clear stack today and Mazara getting these kind of looks makes him a top value play.
Moreland meanwhile has raked righties over the course of the last year with an .876 OPS last season His .372 wOBA only reinforces the idea that this is just the kind of matchup we want to pull from a cleanup hitter on the cheaper end of things (especially on FD). With all the expensive pitching on the day, these are two easy guys to fill lineups.
George Springer FD 3500 DK 5000
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @HOU
FD - 14.31 DK - 11.21
Carlos Gomez FD 2800 DK 4500
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @HOU
FD - 12 DK - 9.53
Mike Pelfrey can't strike anyone out. I hate starting things off like that because the dude sure works hard at pitching. But when we are talking about DFS we need to find the guys who can't miss bats. And that's Big Pelf. Last season he struck out less than five batters per nine (about as low as you'll see) and that leaves a lot of room for contact. Now bro does induce the groundball so it isn't like things are flying out of the ballpark, but he isn't so heavy an arm that we need to avoid him. In fact, these Astros are looking strong today because they can make contact and get to Pelfreyearly. I'm all over these prices in this park.
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image sources
- Chris Sale: By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Chris Sale") [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
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Doug a lot of people are complaing about the baseball scores I am not trying to be one I just want to know how to use tool . Basketball is easy and you are really interactive over there. Here though it’s sort of a different beast. I for one am playing baseball due to you killing it on basketball : so could you give some of us a tip or two because I got killed this week at baseball .
Same here, maybe I’m not using the tool correctly.
I too am getting my rear end handed to me playing baseball…..what’s the deal? Could the universe of players be that much more skilled? any advice?
I got killed also by a couple of players all week. I watched all of the games throughout the night and figured the mistake on most goer eggs. For example the Rogers game last week has SO many oppratunities for system picks to hit with multi bases on. But, for what ever reason they missed. Same tonight with the Colorado Giants game. The plays were set up but not cleaned up as expected. My opinion is that it is early in the season and these guys are dialing in. Human error, weather and last min scratches will always be there. I like the optimizer for the most part and I like the features such as locking/unlocking certain players. Today I had a great feeling n Valesquez and locked him in and built all my line ups around him. Even tho he wasn’t the optimal line up pitcher he had a great upside and chance for winning pitcher. You have utilize those features and most always will get the best plays.
I’m digging volquez tonight with St Louis hitters
hi everyone. Doug has posted several times on the fact that baseball is a different beast. There is so much variance involved, and is much different than hoops. Losing players usually win more early on in the season because they fall in love with players. I have been doing kinda bad also but I realize that it will all work out in the long run once the season gets going. These same players will still use the same guys even when their salaries rise, because losing players fall in love with certain players. Our goal is to try be winning players. That’s why were here right?? Hang in there. It’s a long season. It will get better if you work at it.
To add a bit on what I just said, because it’s been a long day and I didn’t make total sense lol. Losing players will still use hitters that their salaries rise to a point where they should be unplayable, so what this does is it affects the rest of their lineup because they have to fill their team with guys that will not perform well. Just hang in there.
I’ve been doing ok with baseball but have not been using the optimizer. I asked the other day but don’t think I got an answer?? on when new stats should be humming in the current season. So I have just been doing things on my own. LOVE the optimizer for basketball but it seems with baseball ( at least on FanDuel) there’s a learning curve with the new scoring system. The optimizer is spitting out scores in the low 100s and that’s just not going to be close for me ( I only do GPP). Scores have been up and over 200fp every night. I think the optimizer just needs time to gobble up more data. That’s just a part of DFS early in the season because a lot of the projections are based on crunched numbers from previous seasons. So there’s just a data learning curve as the data catches up with the actual results.
Perfect example is a guy like Trevor Story. Optimizer early in the season was saying like 2-3fp and here lately over the 7fp range ( think he’s like 8fp tomorrow). But the guy is averaging 20+fp a game. He probably won’t sustain that but there’s a happy medium in there somewhere. Same for the pitching. You see a lot of studs projected in the 30s and then when you look at the scores you see guys 50s, 60 and even 70fp.
I NO WAY giving up on the optimizer. Just think from my perspective it’s still playing catch-up on FanDuel breaking down data.
optimizers always give low ball expectations of what the average expected performance should be. An optimizer does not try to predict a players monster game. You will never see an optimizer give you an MLB expected score over 200, in my experience. I never saw an NBA optimizer give a prediction over 300. The optimizer is a base expected score that is most useful for predicting floor in cash games. There are no monster 400 score prediction optimizers.
I am having the same problems, even though I’m hitting even so far, and I think it is because of this: The major difference I see in basketball and baseball is that in basketball, a guy like LeBron could have a bad day and still get 30+ fpts. With me so far? On the other hand, a day to day monster like Bryce Harper could have a bad day and go 0-4 and give you a goose egg. So yes, while we all wish it could be that easy, in baseball you really do need more luck than in most other sports. That being said, the DFSR crew tries to give us games and pitchers to target, so don’t be too hard on them as its not their fault.
For the hell of it, I just made a Kershaw/Sale lineup on DK…amazing how easy it was.
Same here on getting handled real rough on baseball. Did pretty good last year. I think the scoring rules changed the game up alot. I keep playing. You can’t win if you don’t pkay. Going to Mega Slam tonight
It seems individual matchups are huge in baseball. Due the player projections include that specific history, or more general Lefty/Righty type splits. I heard some ridiculous number yesterday on Harper vs Terhan, if I had known that, probably would have played him yesterday.
Sorry….”Do”
I’m the opposite of you guys. I suck so hard at basketball to the point I copy Doug’s lineups and throw them in and pray for the best.
Baseball is my cash cow winning on the plus side of 250 bucks a week. Like I have told all my friends I help out with lineups that are new to baseball play to win and go positive. They normally expect to enter a $2 30,000 player tournament and expect to get top 10. The easiest way i can get them away from doing this is explaining if you entered a two 10 dollar 50/50 every night of baseball and won it every night you would win $3800 by the end of the season. That is nothing to scoff at.
Starting out the season I stay away from large tournaments unless my bankroll is fat and even then I will throw 1 or 2 lineups at tournament.
Tournaments in my eyes when starting out the season and you want wins go for single entry tournaments or tournaments that are under 5000 entries.
As for the beginning of seasons it is normally the same old story of some nobody players on amazing hot streaks and some on some horrible cold streaks every year. Learn to stack a team and not pay attention to how much money you have left over. The dollar amount a player is worth does not mean how good or bad he is. If you have 3000 left over to spend but a full lineup you like and the stats say it should work then don’t spend the extra 3000.
I’m a weather nut I live and breathe the weather when considering my lineups.
Fanduel changed it’s point system making it better for newbies so to say to not feel the negative effects of a power guy with a high K%. Which in turn is making more players knock you down.
Pitcher is key now of days. Without the winning pitcher on the night now it’s almost impossible to place if another pitcher separated away the competition.
I will always follow the stats and such for my lineups. But afterwards I will always throw in 1 lineup using my gut and ignoring the stats. The funny part is those few times I have done that have been my largest wins on Fanduel. Trust your gut.
Play small the first month of baseball and build a bankroll until things settle in some.
Most of this is common sense but hope it helps.
Andrew,
Thanks for the advice.
How many 50/50s do you do a night? How different are each cash game lineups from each other?
For now I’m doing two tourney tickets and follow both of those up with 50/50 ‘s…..$8 a day, and if I lose so what! If I win….yay!
I believe someone said in a post on here somewhere to wait and start really playing baseball after the first 3-4 weeks…I’m with Thomas on this one, this site and their optimizer got it right last year and theres no reason to believe that they wont do it again this year. My advice, scale the betting back and do $10 or less a day until this bad boy starts hitting. BUT BE PATIENTS GUYS AND GALS, Doug is fine tuning it daily..he wants us to win as bad as we want to win
Another aggravation for me is Fanduel. About to pick back up DK for MLB. Scratching Charlie like that and not being able to swap him is ridiculous. I usually crush FD but that has got to be the most frustrating non-feature.
Optimizer seems to love Chen against the braves tonight. Glad somebody loves him ?
Not anymore! Risky play….
I’ve updated the projections this AM. Chen no longer in top lineups. Thank goodness.
Thoughts on Joe Ross for tonight. I know the game is in Philly but as a tourney option???
Quick question, what does the color bar below the games on the optimizer tool mean?
Nathan, it means the severity of the weather.
Thank you. I thought that was the case but Miami has a retractable roof.
Chen still coming up on optimizer for DK. Call me crazy, but I think he’s in a great matchup tonight. ATL is dreadful and the one scary bat they have is Freeman whose a LHB. Will throw Chen in a few GPP lineups
Makes sense about Chen for GPP lineups. Much more safer options as a secondary pitcher in DK imo though!
*in cash games for safer options*
It’s interesting with Chen. He had very solid peripherals last season, is a big time moneyline favorite and is against a Braves team awful against lefties last year and to start this season. I really think he’s a good arm today to pair with a bigger money pitcher.
Doug when I look at the rotogrinders starting lineups, I notice often that the wind directions are complete opposite of yours in the optimizer tool section. This is very frustrating for a busy guy like me. I trust u guys immensely, but that Roth guy is a top weather dude apparently. Can u please comment on
This. A few days ago yours said that the wind was blowing in big time, so I swapped a guy out, and it was complete opposite. It didn’t change direction either lol? For all of u thinking that may be the issue.
Ryan, I agree that Kevin Roth is a great resource. Can you be specific about a game you see today that has a differing weather/wind projection than you see elsewhere? I ran through a couple of other sources and it appears our wind directions and weather meters line up with other places.
Also, can you be specific about the game in the past that had the opposite forecast? If there are issues we always want to fix them, but I’m just seeing any to troubleshoot.
I cant get in the optimizer today? Is there an issue?
Fully functional. Email me at doug@dailyfantasysportsrankings.com if you need assistance.
I’m doing one 25$ gpp. Should I try Chen or stick with grienke?
I can’t remember Doug, but they matchup perfectly today. Thx for the quick response sir.
Could you roll out Ross and Volquez tonight in cash games so that you can afford a lot of the great bats tonight?
You can, but you’d be fading a lot of much better arms.
Doug, in FD cash what catcher do you like best out of Ramos/Vogt/Castro? Still leaning towards Ramos per your article?