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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/18/16 Opening Round
Game 1 of each series is in the books! A few blowouts, a few upsets, and a lot of what we expected. Let's break down game two for the four series going today. In case it isn't obvious, a lot of these picks will remind you of Saturday's picks - but there will be some changes! Keep your pens moving - this will be on the test.
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Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors
Analysis
The Pacers "upset" Toronto in game one, but frankly, it looked pretty sustainable to me. They got a little lucky from three (going 11-21), but were pretty cold from two, and even dealt with a little Ian Mahinmi foul trouble. Now it doesn't matter a ton for our fantasy purposes who will win the series, but on a day that features two other series that did contain blowouts, it's worth noting that this is the game most likely to see starters hit their projected minutes totals.
It's also worth noting that this is easily the slowest game on the slate. It has the lowest over/under on this small three game slate by far, and as Doug wrote when he previewed the series last Friday - these are two defensively minded teams. Indiana comes in as the third best team in defensive efficiency this season. Meanwhile Toronto was 11th and played at the second slowest pace in the league this year.
Top Plays
Paul George - FD 9000 DK 8700
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 42.29 DK Proj. Pts - 44.89
As we predicted, PG13 played his biggest minutes in ages in game 1, and did so admirably. With Demarre Carroll clearly not physically ready to chase him around, Toronto was left with a mismatched crew of guys either too small or too slow to cover him. George stuffed the sheet, going for 33/4/6/4/2, and it sure looks like he'll terrorize the Raps all series.
Kyle Lowry - FD 8200 DK 7400
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 41.97 DK Proj. Pts - 44.42
The nice thing about a close game one is that the teams tipped their hand as far as what their plans are for player minutes. And with Lowry, it's clear that Toronto isn't going to die with him on the bench. He played 41 minutes in game 1, and while he was pretty awful from a fantasy perspective, there's reason for optimism. Indiana plays good defense, but you can't count on him for 3-13 shooting and 6 turnovers in each game this series. This is a great way to grab him on the relative cheap (on DK in particular) when everyone and their mother will be doing other things at PG today. I wouldn't trust him for double-ups in case there's more to this bad game than variance, but don't be shocked if he puts up a monster.
Jonas Valanciunas - FD 6100 DK 5500
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 31.87 DK Proj. Pts - 32.42
I hate to brag, but, that's mostly because bragging isn't socially acceptable. In this case, I guess, I'm just bragging about an algorithm that happened to pick Valancunias as the top center play of the day in game 1. He only played 21 minutes, which sucked, but he went 12/19 in those 21 minutes, which most certainly did not suck. The Pacers couldn't rebound with him, and some unlucky foul trouble stopped this from being an historic rebounding night. He'll be more of a chalk play here, but we're still buyers of course.
Patrick Patterson - FD 3800 DK 3200
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 17.71 DK Proj. Pts - 19.52
Power forward is weird, and Patterson is cheap. He put up an easy 5x points per dollar in game 1, and it looks for all the world like he'll keep playing 28-30 minutes on a basically minimum salary. Great guy to eye-ball if you are desperate to save up today.
Also considered: DeMar DeRozan, for safety purposes. After Harden laid an egg in round one, I'm feeling pretty gun-shy there. DeRozan shot 19 times, and while he was bad, he will get his at some point.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Analysis
Game 1 was one of the great embarrassments of all time, and I could very easily write "we didn't learn anything we didn't already know in game 1), except for the part where Steph left the game early with a tweaked ankle. This is the great "what-if" of this slate. If Curry sits, Shaun Livingston becomes an insta-play, as does Draymond Green and Klay Thompson (thanks to the extra usage). If he plays, everything is totally up in the air. I'll say that, generally, Steph's injury makes everyone else in this game more attractive - the Houston guys because the game should be closer, and his teammates because he should turn some of the load over to them.
Top Plays
Draymond Green - FD 8900 DK 8900
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 39.02 DK Proj. Pts - 41.47
I like him coming and going in this one - if Steph sits, the Warriors will basically run the offense through Draymond, and he'll be a must play for me in every format. If Steph does play (which our projections are assuming he will), the Warriors will still be showing a lot of Draymond to guard Steph's ankle. Remember, Green put up a 10/11/16 against the Rockets on New Year's Eve, so a huge game is absolutely in play for him any time these two teams get together.
James Harden - FD 10300 DK 10500
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 49.37 DK Proj. Pts - 52.2
Will I go back to the proverbial well here, after Harden was a complete pile of garbage in game 1? I'm not sure if I have much of an other choice, given that this is a three game slate. Harden WILL play 40+ minutes if the game is even remotely close, and he did put up two nice games against the Warriors earlier this season (including a 37 point outburst). He also might just be completely dead on his feet after a ridiculous run of minutes late in the season. Either way, I'm reluctantly a buyer - though I can definitely picture pairing KD and Russ and going a little cheaper at SG today.
Trevor Ariza - FD 6200 DK 5700
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 30.05 DK Proj. Pts - 33.45
Corey Brewer - FD 3500 DK 2700
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 20.12 DK Proj. Pts - 21.28
Brewer was the only Rocket to pay value in game 1, drawing a relatively surprising start and playing 28 minutes. He's still a bargain basement guy, and I'd guess game 1 was his floor if he's going to play this many minutes. As for Ariza, he paid 4.5x points per dollar in spite of playing 5 fewer minutes than we projected him for, and he'll need to be a part of any small ball lineups the Rockets try to counter with today. If you're looking for safety from this game, these are the two guys I'd feel best about (even if the game does get out of hand once again).
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Analysis
Another series that I simply don't know what to do with. With Barea out and Deron Williams questionable, it looks like we might only get to enjoy this one for four games. Interestingly, though, this has actually just opened up more value for us. It's simple - the Mavericks will have ~65 minutes and lots of shots and dribbles to redistribute, and the prices as yet haven't corrected for them.
Top Plays
Russell Westbrook - FD 10500 DK 10700
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 53.77 DK Proj. Pts - 55.73
Kevin Durant - FD 10300 DK 10100
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 50 DK Proj. Pts - 52.88
Neither Westbrook nor Durant paid their daily fantasy basketball value in game 1, and yet they will be in all of my lineups today. Why? Well, a few reasons. I don't fully trust either of the other big money options (Curry, Harden), and I mind taking guys on the good end of the blowout a lot less than taking guys on the bad end. Which is to say - if the Thunder blow the Mavericks out, here, it'll very likely be because these two soul-crush them. In any case, I'd venture that the Thunder aren't nearly as big a favorite to win this one in three quarters as Golden State is, and for that reason, I'm rolling with their stars.
Raymond Felton - FD 4700 DK 4000
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 28.11 DK Proj. Pts - 30.03
And this is where things get interesting. Are we fully digesting the fact that Raymond Felton could play 38-40 minutes as the starting point guard here? Felton has been very effective in the role when pressed this season, and the Mavs will almost certainly be running Felton's version of a slash and kick all game long. If Matthews and Nowitzki are hitting their shots, Felton could be in for a monster game here - even on a 20% higher price. I'll play him everywhere if Deron Williams sits, and in most places regardless.
Dirk Nowitzki - FD 7200 DK 6200
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.53 DK Proj. Pts - 35.4
Wesley Matthews - FD 5000 DK 4400
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 26.96 DK Proj. Pts - 30.6
I'm not wildly enthusiastic about either after an obviously uninspiring game 1, but there IS opportunity opening up here, and I should really write about it. Dirk was actually pretty effective in the 25 minutes he spent on the court in game 1, going 7/15 and putting up 18 points. He ran bad in terms of rebounding (securing only 4), and minutes (since the Mavs got toasted), and a closer game should make him a much higher floor play. As for Matthews, he did shoot 10 times in just 29 minutes, and he should play closer to 40 in this one. Mock me if you will, but I think he's got a very solid floor with some upside here.
The cheaper, very strong considerations: Devin Harris and Enes Kanter. Kanter was was phenomenal off the bench in game one, putting up 31 fantasy points in just 24 minutes against Dallas' relatively weak front court. I suspect he'll be the chalk cash game play at center for most people today.
Harris is more of a speculative upside play, and it's based on Deron Williams sitting. If Williams does sit, though, Harris could play 30 minutes and spend 10 of those running the point. That's a lot of run for a minimum priced player, and I won't be shocked if he's in winning big tournament lineups today.
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Jeff Green.. Plumlee… not cool… Not cool… They should be punished… Lol
Yes they should lol ??
haaaa you shoulda seen what Dennis Schroeder gave me the other day….I was spitting fire I was so mad
Idk why optimizer likes m plumlee. He was outmatched all night. U guys gotta tweak some things. 6 good picks and 2 awful= headache and brain tumor.
Ha, 6 good picks and 2 awful would suggest there isn’t much to tweak. The guys who underperformed were a direct result of playing significantly less minutes than their rotations suggested.
You’re right Doug. Just so frustrating having a good team with guys in the last game and plumlee puts up 8 fps when 25 would win me a pile of cash. I have Monday’s off and I was drunk. You guys still rule.. Don’t dfsr and drink ?
Hahaha, it’s cool. We play the same lineups so trust us, we are always in the same boat as everyone here in terms of frustration when things don’t line up. We closely examined Plumlee in particular and the Blazers had run him healthy minutes in high leverage games down the stretch.
The optimizer liked Plumlee for a number of reasons.
The most important was value. He was averaging 33.5 DK pts a game in April and his price was slow to adjust. He was getting around 7x salary. On a night where you wanted to pay up salaries at other positions, he gave you some nice salary relief.
You win some you lose some. I said it once, will say it again, the optimizer is not a magic bullet people.
Mason plumlee cost money.. Don’t recommend a white boy with no skills. I had zeller too.. At least he tried before he put on sunscreen
Chances are you didn’t lose a tourney or cash game on Plumlee. If you rostered Plumlee it means you paid up elsewhere. If that was Harden…yeah…join the long line of people he let down.
Jk.. You guys put a good baseline out
jeff green was the guy… 3 fouls no Points at the half… lol finished with 3fdp… not one rebound… one assist… i watched the game… hes not really apart of the offense anymore like he was before Blake… It’s like they told Rivers and Crawford to take over the 2nd unit… when he did get a chance with the ball he was inefficient… Always helps watching the games to see where the offense runs… If this game was closer we would have hit in double ups on fanduel even with guys doing awful. the blow out didn’t help at all thats for sure.
If you played Jeff Green. Your really gonna have a hard time tonight
Yeah definitely when the 2nd unit is in the game the offense seems to boil down to “get the ball to Crawford” and then on the periphery is Rivers chucking shots. Not a lot out there for anyone else besides maybe Aldrich grabbing bricks. I can’t see myself rostering Green anymore in the absence of injuries regardless of what the optimizer says. Still, all that and I was only a few pts away from cashing my double up. It seems like often the optimizer gives a blueprint with a landmine in it, so I’m trying to get better at spotting and avoiding the landmine since the rest of the picks are usually money.
Danny Green burns me everytime I play him!!!
Lost a lot of money last night with the top lineups.
The optimizer has not been good to me lately….lol.
A reminder that a big part of our system is based on projected minutes. We had to make certain assumptions going into the playoffs about how teams would run rotations. It’s not the regular season. For most teams we were real close, others went a different direction. Plumlee, Jeff Green and Danny Green were almost direct reflections of minutes coming in well under the projections. D Green because of blowout. Plumlee because of foul trouble and some defensive issues. Jeff Green because of fouls and just generally playing like crap.
Playoff basketball is a different animal. And honestly, for some teams we still don’t have a great sense of what they’re going to do because blowouts were a big part of this opening weekend. It’s a juggling act. Our big money guys all hit, but the margins got killed because of the minutes.
Seems like a lot of these guys just don’t understand variance good thing they’re at least getting great projections
projections are fine lol….are we really complaining that the playoffs are unpredictable?
Optimal looks good just never taking brewer so will do some tweaking to that, thinking that Wesley Matthews is going to have a big game tonight
Any ideas on GS tonight? And is Harden gonna be another dud?
any suggestions on fanduel. i like the matthews-harris combination but feel like harden needs to be in the lineup.
Thoughts on Patterson or Brewer?
Brewer is not in the starting lineup tonight. They are starting Montejunas (sp?) at the 4.
Turner or Barnes for my utility? Who do you guys think has the better game?
Don’t even think about curry not playing or his usage going down to “protect his ankle.” Nothing is wrong with him. They’re just trying to pour drama in the series.
They scare the rest of the league though if they don’t play him and still smash the rockettes
I’ve had some pretty good luck the first two nights stacking ATL and the Cavs. Just happy to get off the snide w/ the MLB action, that’s a tough nut to crack. Think I need to lay back and learn some more before I keep throwing money at it.
Tonight, Cory Joseph or Devin Harris?
Optimizer doesn’t own a gut feeling guys. It’s more an example of spending value. You gotta make the call with at least the last 3 positions filled.
They need to just advance GSW and OKC to the next round and let Dallas and Houston play for the second best team in Texas trophy. We’re forced to sit through 3 more games of bad match-ups. Dallas is going to get smoked again tonight and seems to be already waiving the white flag with JJ out and DWill doubtful. Backup city.
Imagine losing out on 50/50 by .25 pts. Unreal. Cashed in my tourney lineups, but I played Duncan over Plumlee, but Plumlee in cash (grrr). Made all the difference in the world. After sitting in the clubhouse after the first 2 games with James, Irving, Wade and Joe Johnson (not a great game, but hit 5x value), thought I was sitting pretty. I still like that Plumlee pick he has 40 pts upside and with the way Jordan misses free throws should have been an easy 10+ rebound game, dumb foul trouble trying to stop Griffin’s dunks. We he gets above the room, you just let him go.
I feel that. Took a swing at one of the DraftKings $$$ entries that paid top 1798.. finished 1799… 🙁 Austin Rivers assist with like 30 seconds left took me out of easy money…
My luck in the first round has been pretty sad. Only had one LU over 300 points on FD and that was a 50/50. I have failed to reach 200 several times so I hope tonight is different. The worst thing is having as many studs as possible, them not hitting value then several scrubs who don’t post any points at all.
Yes I know what you mean but still overall the optimizer has been a real help for me. I can’t wait until football season. Anyone know how well the optimizer works for the NFL ?
The system def was the helm of my picks last night. Dang was a good swap but green and Plumlee ouch. That’s basketball.
*Deng!
Dont really like the first option tonight.
I’ve recently switched from big tourneys to playing in either 20 or 100 person leagues. Anyone else play those & is there a different strategy in playing that way. I think I’ve had more success playing smaller rather than huge tourneys where I’ve got no chance to win big. Thanks
im convinced the top spots in big tourneys are rigged. you click on a winners name say in the top three and they have NO history, thats their only win. like…yeah ok i smell bullshit. fanduel \ dk would be out of business giving out that kind of money every night. its going right into a bots pocket is my firm belief. im sure the odd time an average joe does take down a gpp there is shock at the fanduel office. thats why im happy to basically break even, there is a better chance of winning powerball than winning a gpp for the average player
Ive always believed that. If you pick the perfect lineup up you’ll be tired with another person (A bot) so you’ll never get the big prize. Yet I still play cause Im stupid lol
100% in the same boat of belief william hill. the fact that winners of these big tourneys have no previous history proves to me its pretty much a scam, and to stick to the low prize stuff if you want to feel successful at all in dfs
I’m with you Tom, I smell a rat, on many occasions I have also checked the winner’s history, only to find nothing or very marginal activity.
The only tourney I have ever won was on Yahoo, and it was a small (1400+) hockey tourney, but coming out on top was a hoot, and multiple entry to boot. I hit it 3 times but my take was only 320.00. I’ll take it, but I have never even sniffed that kind of payout on FD.
You sir are crazy you won’t win if you have a conspiracy theory. Big tourney’s have thousands of entries. Just simple common sense says you only have 1 in thousands chance of winning if you constantly play the *best plays” of the night you’re taking someone who is extremely highly ownef and you’ll never have enough uniquenedd from the popular to bring down a big tournament. Sign the guy who one a big tourney.
@Tom McCloughry…you have an interesting point. I never checked into that or thought about it, but I cannot recall ever seeing the same names twice or more. In other words there is no familiarity. My gosh I would hate to find out that the site’s house computer generates a perfect lineup or manipulates data to defraud players. That would be a major problem.
don’t tell me it’s rigged…………………….I might get pissed off and go and do something……………….oh, right, I won’t do a damn thing except keep playing LOL
in all honesty I do believe it is a scam…………and I hope they rot if it actually is
i always say, the feds dont sniff around if something isnt suspected. as soon as they started looking at regulating dfs, thats when i won more than at any other time in two years. my theory? because they had to stop using bots while being audited. now that its cooled off, i guess i have to be happy with my 50-100 every night lol. and im not a sore loser, i actually win a ton of my matchups. im just going on the theory that you basically arent allowed to win the top prizes. if youre playing fanduel tonight in tourneys, check the top names after its over. you either will not be able to select that person, or they will have one or two wins to their name. id bet my bankroll
Yup……I can’t even access the history of last nights winners, I just checked.
Def something is up. If these Daily sights are screwing with people, then I smell a class action lawsuit down the road.
I DID notice a third place finish in a baseball tournament and a 1st place finish on major gpp basketball in the same day a few days ago. The lineups were pretty much straight off optimizer. It was by the same person. A few days later I saw the same name in another winning group. I had a first place finish in baseball last august but for only 800
Actually I can’t access anyone’s history like used too
I can’t stand Popobitch. Had LMA, DUNCAN, and PARKER last night. Was doing pretty good. Guess it makes sense to rest the core when dishing out an A**whoopin’ like that, but durnit I just wish it wasn’t on my dime.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor
I’d guess that, in the event of a huge tourney where the odds of winning are 1 out of 10,000+ (dunno about FD, i play DK, but big tourney’s there often top 17,000 entries), those that win usually don’t win again. Simple explanation. Nothing is “rigged.” The odds are just really, really low.
Now let’s see Lowry shoot over 35% and win us some money!
Montejunas is starting for brewer
Don’t love this 🙁 Montejunas and Green seemed to be about one call away from both getting ejected in game one. Montejunas starting means they’ll be matched up again. Something to keep an eye on.
This just makes the whole situation dicey. Liked it much more when I thought Brewer would start and play almost blowout dependent.
I don’t think it’s rigged. I won a slam the first week I played FanDuel baseball and know a few others who have won early on as well. GPP is shoot the moon and you have a TON of people who play like $5 a night on boom or bust lineups. Even the “pros” who run a ton of lineups you’ll notice most nights just out of the big money but hit multiple entries in the good payout area because they remove some of the risk in boom or bust play. It’s just the law of averages. Guys put in a few bucks and pick some wacky lineups and odds are a few of them will hit.
While I still don’t think it’s “rigged” I also tend to think some of those random winners are some of the pros running stuff under another account ( wife/girlfriend etc)..
Too many people track stuff live for some bot to rig things.
Two weeks ago I was in 1st and second place all night on a FD 5K. With 3 minutes left to go in the final game I was still in 1st, and thinking I would go on to post the win, went to bed. When I checked the line ups the next morning I had dropped to 9th. That didn’t seem kopacetic to me, but I suppose it was somehow possible.
That’s easy to check though. Just pull up the lineup and look who the guys in slots 1-8 had and I’d bet someone they all had scored late in the game. It happens. Xavier Munford scored 7fp in 60 seconds of garbage time with a minute left last night in the MEM/SA game.
Man, I don’t know how you could sleep before that thing was over, I know I wouldn’t be able to. If it was just a few more minutes you should have hung around and see how it fleshed out.
Anyway, 9th place is still pretty damned good, maybe one day I’ll break the top 10 myself.
Brewer showing up in optimals but not expected to start tonight.
Are you still seeing this? I bumped him down some time ago
what do you think of westbrook, since dallas is banged up at the pg?
I love Westbrook regardless of Dallas situation. Only worried about the blowout
I placed in 3rd out of 172000+ back in Nov in a 1pm only tourney for nfl. Couple other minor wins but just the one big payout. Been playing dfs for years now. Probably broke even after that win. Lol.
I’m thinking Felton plays big minutes and has a great night with the horrendous dal pg situation.
Wow! 3rd out of 172k is unfargingbelievable! That must have felt great!
What was your take, if you don’t mind me asking? BTW, I’m def rolling the dice on Felton tonight myself, got Harris in there too. I figure since I’m losing with all of my “deep” research, I might as well try a Hail Mary tonight. Also going to start Monte tonight since he’s starting……what the hell?
yeah it was pretty unbelieveable. take was $9k. the best part is I’m canadian so after the dollar conversion was close to $12k.
Any thoughts on Carroll tonight? Kinda want to take a shot & play him.
Worried about the minutes.
So any word on curry tonight
I’d be shocked if he sat.
Thanks Doug me too. Worth sticking him in a gpp you think? Or is my big spending better utilized elsewhere
Also, just a reminder that our minutes projections are based on Deron Williams not playing today.
No updated Curry news blows. If he sits it changes everything for both teams. If he plays the ripple effect changes things for both teams as well. Couple that with what is sure to be a giant beatdown by OKC and it’s just tough sledding.
Agreed. These playoffs are tough right now especially considering the first couple of days didn’t shed a ton of light on certain situations. In some cases things only got murkier. We’ve made assumptions in our projections which we think are correct, but again this is a short slate we could have two blowouts.
ok……….I need real help……I accidently entered a $25 head-to-head contest………..on FD you cannot cancel out on those contests. I am a simple man of modest means………I need to win that one……..thoughts on this lineup…..
felton
lowry
harden
derozan
Anderson
brewer
ibaka
green
howard
Looks good. If you want more money to switch up Anderson or brewer plug in Kanter in C. Should free up around 1800 for ya. Maybe get rid of brewer/Anderson for barnes or ariza if you have enough.
thanks for the input Corey…………im going to run with it………..sink or swim eh
Yep. Good luck.
Brewer isnt starting so that hurts his value
montejunas gets very few minutes………. you think brewer will get enough minutes against a second unit to make up for him not starting……………….or no?
Nowitzki and kanter or ibaka and valunc?
Anyone know what the deal with Beasley is? he was rolling mid 20+ minutes and almost double digit points every night and then all of the sudden they pulled the plug on him. Even in the blowout the other night he only saw 6 minutes in the game. Does he have some sort of minutes/playoff bonus they are trying to avoid? He dominated second units for almost a month and then poof out of the rotation.
The problem with the Rockets is we simply just don’t know. They’ve messed with rotations and styles to the point that they don’t even seem to know, organizationally, what they want to do. Beasley is a good example of this. The Brewer/ Moto flipflop is another. I wouldn’t be shocked if Beasley played 25 minutes or got a DNP. The Rockets are serious underdogs and overmatched in just about every facet of the series. They don’t know what they want to do and therefore we have trouble prognosticating this kind of indecision.
Thomas…………it’s called poor coaching……..you can expect it from Houston………..alot
That and Beasley absolutely can’t guard Draymond. But yes I agree on the lack of coaching since he got his minutes buzzed at the end of the season also.
Coaching for sure. GSW went small and Houston coach countered with Montejunas and Howard on the floor at the same time.. bizarre. Still though not sure what his contract is?? seems like when you suddenly see a running back or wide receiver “magically” not get touches late in the season to avoid bonuses. Not going to play him but was just curious why the massive dropoff he had after a pretty solid run that got them into the playoffs.
I think curry will sit. I think pat bev going to punk livingston. All the klay n dray
Welp Carroll is officially starting now
I don’t think this changes much for anyone except a slight bump for him. He can’t go minutes near 30 I don’t think.
Powell with the second unit has a better chance to put up fantasy points then he did with first unit… no?
You guys should play draftkings, it’s a much better format, and I’m sure people win big gpps there. I’ve won my share…
Wow! I had ALOT of Brewer in my lineups tonight. Not sure if I should keep him in now. The price is so good.
Here is my 2 cents…..I finished 3rd in the $1 and one last week. Had Trey Lyles hit either of the Jazz’s last 2 shots, OR rebounded either of those shots, I would have won.
Whoa…long work day and now have 14 minutes to lock in a lineup. Optimizer spitting out Matthews and Harris at SG? Anyone else feel good about that?
If you think Deron is fully out, then yes. He’s doubtful but we are projecting he sits.
I once turned $1 into $750 coming in third in a gpp last season on fanduel. This was before the optimizer but I did use picks from this very site. More recently with the optimizer turned $3 into 200 coming in second on DK. I’d love to come in first once, but honestly in a gpp I’m content if I can finish in the top 5 percent and take home some serious cash on my investment. Recently I’ve adopted the rule of single entry, or at most 3-5 entries per person so at least I know I’ve got as much a chance as everyone else, I can’t deal with those 250 entry max where every 3-5 places you see another gannondorf entry while my single entry is struggling to compete.
I EXPECT ALL MY PLAYERS TO HIT 5x VALUE TONIGHT…………………..OR THEY ARE FIRED!!!!!!!!!
I like this!
Exactly!!
wow…people really trust the Mavs players…dont like dirk tonight
Monta Ellis…
Unbelievable. D-Will doubtful all day. 6:59 expected to play. I pushed out an update as soon as I saw news.
F-me! I have Harris in 3 of 4 lineups.
don’t worry………….he will get hurt within a few minutes
Im on the Ellis train tonight
Deron expected to play. Glad I didn’t throw Harris into any lineups
Wow 47% George ownership. I don’t think he will surpass 40 fantasy to even come close to hitting value now that Carroll is running with him
this just in Williams is questionable Monday at OKC. He’s leading towards playing.
I got Williams in and curry in one lineup here’s my chance lol
Don’t panic if Deron does start which doesn’t make much of a difference he sucks when injured, just change Devin and Russ for Livingston and durant. Problem solved!
Good to see playoff NBA has same frenetic news cycle at regular season. Really crazy/ awful
Wow Steph 4% owned in the big fanduel $2 tourney. Could be a money maker for me because people are naive enough to think he actually won’t play.
Whoops. I guess I was too naive to roster him…;)…Steph OUT
Livingston, Felton, Durabnt, Mont., Mahini, Westbrook, Barnes, Harden. Lol. Go big or go home. Gives me some flexibility as more news comes out. I think Curry sits tonite. I really like Lowry tonite to put up monster game
For me fading Curry wasn’t about my thinking he won’t play, it was about my not necessarily believing that with a sore ankle he’ll outscore Westbrook. Maybe he will, I don’t know.
Haha Valanciunas over 20 pts already and he’s only ~22% owned in my double-ups. Come through optimizer!
it’s early yet, but somebody please remind derozan that it’s more important that he have a great fantasy line than it is that the raptors win tonight….thank you
Figures every time I played pgeorge this year he gave no value. 2 early fouls. And how the heck is dwill playing now?
Late update says Thompson and Dirk over Harden and Mont. Is Mont out or not starting now?
Looking like a no Val no cash type of night. On pace for 60 plus?!
I can’t believe this d will business smh
just watch val disappear in half number 2
To Curry……or not to Curry……
I would like to hit one more before they shut us down in Texas. My claim to fame is $1600 DK ($1000) +($600) same tourney.
Curry is out per roto 2 % chance he plays so that means out
Wes Mathews is trash , typical case of a guy getting paid then not doing shit
If the rockets steal one on the road is there a chance ?? I for one hate the Warriors
Thanks Nicholas!
Wow ok I’m actually happy he’s not playing because I planned a lineup specifically for it just in case with klay, draymond, Barnes, and some rockets because it could be closer.
Wes Mathews sucks every time I play him… My own fault for doing so again… Smh
That sounds like a good lineup
And Nicholas… Even if curry sits there’s no chance for the rockets this series, still not a great chance they win this game if curry sits, just my opinion and I’m not a warriors or rockets fan.
what the hell happened to derozan????that is one overpriced dude……..GEEEEEEEZ
Don’t know if it’s the pressure or competition or both but dude just can’t shoot in the playoffs. Career 45% FG guy who drops down to 38% in the playoffs… He needs to be priced around 6K
Curry out per rotowire
hows Matthews doing tonight?
Forgot how to play basketball
I learned my lesson with that scrub long ago
Doug, no update post during the playoffs?? Haven’t seen one and I loved that article all season!
Well I gambled that Curry wouldn’t play. So I’ve got Livingston, Mont, Barnes and Harden. To go with Livingston I could go Green, Thompson Ariza…..thoughts?
Really Durant? Really? I’m more mad at him than I am at Matthews.
Well if you bet Mavs ML and the under you made your playoffs.
Same old OKC. They just don’t want to be elite. Thought they had a cake-walk and didn’t even show up and turned out to be a dogfight and then they iso’balled most of the 4th. Just terrible. You make it too easy on other teams when you have a guy like Waiters out there that NO ONE needs to even bother guarding. At least flip Adams for Kanter for offense defense.
And for crying out loud. When will these dudes ever learn you CAN”T grab the ball with that little time on the clock. Adams tips that and they win.
It’s more a front office issue than a team issue. These guys are not good. They have no real supporting players and are incredibly exposed when Durant has this kind of shooting night. Feel bad for KD and Russell. You’ve heard it 1K times from Haralabos, Simmons, etc. but the OKC team beyond those two guys is just so dreadful and can’t make up for when teams force them into iso
Some of that for sure. But you hear so many basketball people say if they had a “real” coach with the same roster they’d be just as good as GSW. Pop wouldn’t put up with this stuff. A lazy dude like Waiters would be kicked to the curb. Kanter would be forced to play defense or be traded. OKC just thinks they can outscore everyone and the players get a pass on basic bball fundamentals.
It’s a front office thing but it’s how the front office allows the bball culture to stay what it is. They couldn’t make a deal at the deadline because no one wanted to go play there.
You can pop in tape from the playoffs since bball began and you’ll never find a team that hoisted the trophy that just let two guys freelance all night long. Team game.
I agree on some points here. For instance, there’s some consensus that Payne should be playing over Waiters right now. Maybe that’s what a real coach would do. Waiters shouldn’t even be on the team really.
KD and Russ are forced into ISOs late because because Donovan hasn’t developed any kind of offense except a “you go now I’ll go” type thing. I think we agree on the basic principles of the OKC flaws. We are just taking slightly different paths.
Watching the replay just embarrassing. Dion Waiters never even bothers going to the other end of the court. Nine guys sprint down after the missed free throw and he gets up and dusts himself off and just stands there. He did the same thing a few plays before where he didn’t even bother chasing back on defense. How that dude ever sees the floor is a mystery.
Total mystery. He’s the exact wrong kind of guy to play with that unit. It’s really something that he keeps getting minutes. He’s worthless in that unit. Has no complimentary skill to the big two.
anybody remember the good old days when Ibaka was a beast in the paint……………now he is very average……..just likes to shoot threes……inexcusable
I was always taught to beat your opponent with your feet, not your hands………….these nba guys are out there playing grab ass, pushing, shoving, hooking, slapping……………..a damn unprofessional disgrace if you ask me……they would have a helluva time getting anything done if they had to play pure basketball
derozan is gonna cost me a lot of cash tonight………..burn me once…..your fault……burn me twice……….my fault………burn me three times…I’m a dumbass…….but you’re still FIRED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Draymond nearly matches Dirk’s fantasy pts in the 1st quarter alone. Wouldn’t be surprised if he goes for a triple-double; his role really expands with Curry out.
What if OKC still had Harden like they should?! Kanter is the 3rd highest paid player on the team. What a joke!! I’m a big OKC fan and cannot understand how the front office lives with this and hires a mediocre coach. KD will bounce back and at least we get to play them an extra game in fantasy! OKC plays, you deploy KD and Russ!!
howard looks like he’d rather be anywhere on earth besides playing basketball in this game…………..so weak
boy cory brewer was an erroneous choice…….yikes
Wow 70 people are in 1st place with the exact same lineup. I wonder where they got there optimal lineup from. It had to be something like this site because all of the lineups are identical. Come on DFSR guys give us one too like they got
Spoke too fast now it’s only 10 identical lineups in first place on fanduel
horrible night……………………..lost ass………………………had to FIRE
derozan
brewer
good the hell night………see you tomorrow
Never pick up a houston player in playoffs. Awful. No defense and u will always loose a tournament. And d waiters is the worst basketball player I have ever seen probably since when the 76ers used to start Eric snow along side Allen Iverson. Wtf Eric snow. Lmao. Hot garbage. And now u got likes like d waiters who the d stands for d league. Should be stoned. Harden should request to go bk to okc cause he Sucks on houston and durant and russ could use his services
Doug u guys do an amazing job with the optimizer. Mad props. It’s not ur fault people like Cory brewer put up 1 fantasy point. Awful. OKC is terrible. 2 on 5 basketball. Why do they bother suiting up there other guys. Just do what Memphis did. Grab a bunch of d league 10 day contract guys and bring them in to play with russ and durant.