Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Chris Durell

There are no day games on Friday and a healthy 15 games starting at 7:00 pm et. There is a nice selection of pitchers in the upper tier mixed with some terrific GPP value plays. Get ready for another series in Coors Field as the Dodgers comes to town with a Friday night game with an over/under of 11 as of Thursday night. Time to get your Coors stack on!

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Matt HarveyMatt Harvey FD 9800 DK 10300
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @ATL
FD - 40.43 DK - 22.34

It has been a rough start to the 2016 season for Harvey going 0-3 while giving up 11 earned runs in just 17.1 innings pitched. He has only struckout nine batters while walking seven but on a positive side has only given up one home run. He is running a BABIP around 50 points higher than his career average which is a good sign he will come around soon and be the Harvey we all know and love to roster. The slump to start the season has kept his price very affordable in a premier matchup vs. the Braves who have the leagues lowest team wOBA at .261 and come in with a wRC+ that is 40% lower than league average.

Aaron NolaAaron Nola FD 6900 DK 8300
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 28.59 DK - 14.88

If you are looking to stack Coors Field or possibly the Cubs tonight you are going to need a value pitcher with upside for GPP's. While Nola is winless in his first three starts he has picked up 23 strikeouts in 19 innings pitched. There is your upside. At first glance it appears a very risky play on the road in a hitters park but the Brewers just don't have the same powerful lineup they used to. They sit right in the middle in team wOBA at .311 and come in with a wRC+ that is 12% below league average. Take the K upside and hope the Phillies can get to Zach Davies early giving Nola a chance at the win.

Jeff SamardzijaJeff Samardzija FD 8400 DK 9300
Opponent - MIA (Cosart) Park - @SF
FD - 38.17 DK - 20.42

The projection system absolutely loves the Shark tonight in his first home game as a Giant. It has been shaky start to the year going 1-1 in three road starts but the good news is he hasn't given up more than three runs in start. The issue has been that he is giving up almost double the walks per 9 innings than he was last year which has gotten him into some long innings which have stretched out his pitch count early. If he can find his control Friday night he should have a terrific shot at a win and some added strikeouts in last season most pitcher friendly park.

DFSR 705x90


Stephen VogtStephen Vogt FD 2800 DK 3500
Opponent - TOR (Sanchez) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.65

Sitting right at the top of the PTS/$ projections once again. He hits 5th in the A's lineup and has been hitting very well lately with hits in four of his last six games. Three of those games were multi hit games and he has also added two home runs and three RBI. He has been making good contact as well with only four strikeouts in his last 28 at bats. Sanchez is a flame thrower but can struggle with command at times and if he puts runners on early, hitters like Vogt in the middle to bottom of the lineup can crush him.

Jason CastroJason Castro FD 2100 DK 3300
Opponent - BOS (Wright) Park - @HOU
FD - 6.52 DK - 5.12

If you want to completely punt the position tonight you can roll with Castro, especially on FanDuel at minimum price. He won't get a ton of at bats hitting ninth in the Astros lineup but does provide some extra base hit and power upside as he has hit double digit homers in three straight seasons.


Jose AbreuJose Abreu FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.81

The first of the right handed White Sox that are to come in this article.  The system is in love with picking on Martin Perez tonight who has only struck out nine batters in three starts while walking 11. He is prone to giving up home runs and has given up a .438 Slugging % to right handed hitters this season. Load up with a White Sox stack at home in a Top 10 hitters park early in 2016.

Anthony RizzoAnthony Rizzo FD 4200 DK 5200
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 15.1 DK - 11.72

The system is also heavy on the Cubs tonight and for good reason. After a 16 run outburst on Thursday the Cubs have now scored 97 runs while going 12-4 to start the season. Rizzo has been up and down to start the year with a sub .200 batting average but is riding a BABIP of .154 which is miles below his career number of .282. He hasn't been shy on the power early in the season with five dingers and 16 RBI already. The Cubs hitters get an elite matchup on Friday vs. Jon Moscot who gave up two home runs in his first start in St. Louis and isn't going to scare anyone with strikeouts.


Chase UtleyChase Utley FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 11.43 DK - 9.12

He has been an excellent cash game option this season for the Dodgers with only two games where he hasn't recorded a fantasy point. The power has faded late in his career but is still a good hitter and gets the leadoff role at the top of a powerful Dodgers lineup. You are going to want to get exposure to Coors Field tonight and the question becomes which team to stack. If you are wanting to pay up for a pitcher go with the Dodger side as they come in a bit a cheaper than the home team.

Ben ZobristBen Zobrist FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.51

He is coming off a huge night at the dish on Thursday going 3-5 with a home run and three runs batted in vs. theReds. He is switch hitter that hits better from the right side but should get a great opportunity on Friday vs. a weaker right handed pitcher in a great hitters park. He dropped to the 6th in the order last night but after his explosion might get another shot near the top. Either way he makes a great addition to your Cubs stack, especially on FanDuel below the $3k mark.

Brett LawrieBrett Lawrie FD 2600 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.01 DK - 7.97

Another FanDuel friendly play in the mid $2K range in a great matchup vs. a weak left handed pitcher. Lawrie has always been a left masher in his career and hit them to the tune of a .293 average last season with seven home runs. So far in 2016 he has four hits in nine at bats with an extra base hit. One of my favorite stacks on Friday will be the White Sox 3 through 6 hitters who have huge power upside.


Corey SeagerCorey Seager FD 4000 DK 4100
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.86

The system has him projected as the top scoring SS on Friday as the Dodgers travel to Coors Field. Again, it comes down to price for me in my Dodger picks. Seager is right around a $1,000 cheaper than Story(COL) on both sites and have very similar stats outside the first six games where Story exploded.  Jon Gray has strikeout upside but lacks control(3+ BB/9 at every level) and could get into trouble the lefty heavy top of the Dodgers order.

Addison RussellAddison Russell FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.85 DK - 8.6

The system clearly has a love for the Cubs tonight and Russell makes more of a contrarian choice if you want to differentiate your stack. He has struggled to start the year hitting just .222 but has all the tools to be a big time fantasy producer in the bottom part of a powerful lineup. He is a cheap punt option on both sites.


Evan LongoriaEvan Longoria FD 2900 DK 4600
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.61 DK - 9.95

If you're into BvP this pick is right up your alley. Personally, I like using BvP when the sample is big enough(over 15 at bats). Longoria has faced Sabathia 64 times in his career and picked up 24 hits(6 HR and 13 BB) for a .528 wOBA. That's enough where you have to start paying attention. I would say that Sabathia is also not the pitcher he used to be and is walking over four batters per nine innings. Longoria could get multiple opportunities to drive some runs in tonight.

Kris BryantKris Bryant FD 4100 DK 4900
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.92 DK - 11.62

He is the top projected scoring third basemen on Friday night and comes at great value on FanDuel as the 5th in price. After a breakout rookie season that saw him club 26 HR and add 99 RBI, he has only hit two HR so far but has seen his K% drop over 10% from last year. One of the reasons for the lack in average and power early in the year is his BABIP being close to 110 points lower than last season. Look for him to revert back closer to last years numbers very soon.


Todd FrazierTodd Frazier FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.46

Another White Sox power hitter at the top of the projections when looking at PTS/$ on Friday. Frazier is coming off a 2-4 game last night where he hit his fourth HR of the year and second in his last three games. Although he doesn't have a hit vs. a left in nine at bats this season he had positive splits last season and hit 14 of his 35 HR against lefties in half the at bats. He will get a great opportunity against Martin Perez on Friday.


Jorge SolerJorge Soler FD 2600 DK 4100
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.71 DK - 9.23
Jason HeywardJason Heyward FD 3300 DK 4300
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.25 DK - 11.26

By now you have a full lineup of Cubs and the sites are telling you to cancel and start over. Seriously though you can be very creative with your stacks to separate yourself. The Cubs can explode and have scored more runs(97) than any other team in the first three weeks of the season. Most people tend to stack 1-4 hitters but you can start to find some lower ownership by going 2-5 or 3-6 or even skipping over the projected highest owned hitter in the lineup. Both Soler and Heyward have power upside but have struggled with strikeouts early in the year. Don't worry about that tonight as Jon Moscot isn't going to scare major league hitters.

Joc PedersonJoc Pederson FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 12.85 DK - 9.99

He is actually usable on FanDuel this season as they have eliminated strikeouts as a negative stat. He struck out at a 29% clip last season but also hit 26 home runs. He hit 20 of those home runs in the first half before fading away in the second half. He has opened the 2016 season hitting .262 with two home runs but is striking out at close to a 40% clip. If you are stacking Dodgers in Coors Field, he will have a great shot a double dong on Friday.

Josh ReddickJosh Reddick FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - TOR (Sanchez) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.74

He has picked up right where he left off last season with the power stroke. He has already clubbed three homers early in the 2016 season with 10 RBI and six runs. There is a to of room for his low average of .220 to grow as he has been dealing with a BABIP of around .200 which is over 70 points lower than his career average. He gets a decent matchup on the road in Toronto vs. Sanchez who can strike guys out but struggles with control and can give up the long ball(14% career HR/FB rate).
So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.



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77 Visitor Comments

  1. My lineup tool still is showing yesterday?

  2. Anyone else having problems with the LineupLab tool? Mine will not spit out an optimal lineup for MLB and just continues to scroll – never loads. Using FireFox browser. Stopped working last night for me. NBA lineup tool works fine.

    • Jeff, yeah. The optimizer won’t load for me. It just keeps spinning. Since yesterday evening. Still not working this morning. Baseball and Basketball.

      • Todd, I sent you an email. We were able to clear up Jerry’s issue and I’m hoping the same solution works for you.

        • I have the same problem and have had it since yesterday as well. Just keeps spinning. What’s the fix ?

  3. $$$$BOOM$$$$ Crushed NBA and early slate!! Thanks guys!

      • Line up 1 and two in all games in NBA and Line up 1 in all early slate games. it put my bankroll at a nicer place, lets just say that.

  4. Cargo at 3700 on DK?? Do they know something we don’t?

    • Anthony – Cargo is cheap because he is going against Lefty and he of 0-5 against Kazmir.

  5. Thanks DFSR hit a good lick on early slate MLB yesterday.

  6. I’m still having issues with optimizer. Is it acting up again?

  7. Anybody have some good go-to sites for MLB weather reports other than K. Roth on RotoGrinders? Like I posted yesterday, weather will be weather but this guy has a video telling you how great he is with degrees and such and in no uncertain terms, says if he posts the game as red–do NOT play it. Again, weather will be weather but he’ll report a all-day torrential downpour and there ends up being not so much as even a delay. Guess it would be easier to take if it wasn’t for his bragging.

    • Wow u really have a problem with that guy. Google the city and weather. Enough said

  8. I go strait to weather.com and watch the radar in time for the iffy games.

  9. OK, thanks. I’ll start trying that. You’ve had pretty good luck with them then?

    • Download an IP address blocker to your computer. You can change it to say youre in a state that FD and DK are ok with. I know plenty of people that do this with success…But keep in mind if you do this it will only work on the computer that has the program installed. Youre welcome!!

  10. If I sign up for the dfsr pro and the dumbass attorney general in Alabama goes through with his plan to block daily fantasy on May 1st, would I still be charged even though I would be blocked from playing daily fantasy?

    • You would be charged after the free trial yes, but we could easily prorate for time used if this decision goes through.

    • Agree that they are a good resource. I like Kevin Roth as well though I know some folks on here haven’t loved the cut of his jib. And while I’m typically not pumped about touting a competing site, I think he does a good job of bringing a human element to the weather forecasting.

  11. dailybaseballdata.com is what I use for weather they start with the game time and go out nine hours showing temp, humidity, feels like, condition, plus windspeed and direction. also on the left hand side it shows the park and big arrow of windspeed and direction as well.

  12. Why no love for Aaron Sanchez? Seems to be a solid value play at SP tonight imo but optimizer has him as a def no go?

    • Few things working against him today imo. One: bad park as Toronto is a hitter’s pad. Two: Oakland doesn’t K much against righties. Three: Sanchez has a real issue getting lefty bats out and I suspect Oakland stacks their lineup with lefties up and down today.

  13. Anyone know when they start opening roof at Toronto becomes even more of hitters pad

  14. Any thoughts on a contrarian stock against Verlander, the shark and Wainwright tonight?

  15. I need contagion plays. I only have Longoria and stacking Mets instead of cubs. I dunno. This season is boring. Also tiger guy here. No Verlander. He will get shelled after 3rd. He wears try hard panties now

  16. Is today a hitters day? Tropeano why? He’s going against felix… and left handed cano, hes not even a strikeout pitcher,not making much sense to me,then again i guess i’m a noob

    • It’s simply a price thing on DK. That’s what system is saying at least. There are a bunch of advantageous hitting situations today and because the win isn’t as crucial on DK, the ML is less important. Tropeano, I suppose is a function of the hitters really having some upside.

  17. Tropeano has been a K per inning guy at every level so wouldn’t say he doesn’t have K potential

  18. Doug- Any love for Bos bats today? Seem to be a little underpriced on DK? McHugh gives up hits, and over last season and the start of season doesnt seem to be the pitcher that he flashed in 2014. MMP isnt the ideal field, but it is fairly short down the lines…

    Bogarts/Pedoria at 3700 each seems like a good way to get out of the middle infield for cheap with top of the order stack to boot.

    • Not a ton no. Fine to stack them in a tournament as underowned. But there are some better matchups I’m looking at. McHugh has some reverse-ish split stats which have those guys interesting, but for safety I’m looking elsewhere.

  19. So I’ve been using the free info on some tourneys and have cashed enough to keep me about even. This is more of a hobby than anything. I’m thinking about subscribing and want some honest opinions from users. Do I need the $30/month or is the $15/month sufficient? Any info is appreciated.

  20. Like Nola just wish his price at least 1k cheaper on DK to fit bats I want to use

  21. Like Nola, was considering Sanchez until I saw he has some of the worst splits against LHB going tonight and Oakland is rolling out 7 LHB’s

  22. Thoughts on Quintana tonight gentleman? I know it’s not the most ideal matchup but I feel like he’s got some strikeout upside plus potential for a win against Perez even if he’s not great

  23. What games if any should I avoid tonight because of weather?

  24. It’s really interesting whats happening. FD has an almost full-on Coors fade while DK is the opposite. Interesting in how the pricing subtleties work out that way

  25. My optimal has almost a full on Cubs stack for DK?

  26. Thanks Doug yea the ballpark scares me a bit however I like the strikeout upside and potential for the win….side note I peeked at the DK slate for tomorrow and the prices on the coors bats is insanely high get em cheap today while you can

      • Was hoping Raburn got better lineup spot and line down to 11 at Coors. Guess your not only one thinking that way Doug

        • Interesting. Jon Gray is a real prospect. I understand it’s Coors, but he and Kazmir aren’t terrible. I still like the Dodgers because pricing is soft. But the overall line looked way high to me.

          • Only speculation but have to think it’s sharp money because no way average Joe is betting under at Coors regardless of #

  27. Doug, is Cellular Field not a good pitchers park? I have a list from ESPN that list it as 25 worst hitters park, followed only by DET, SEA, NYM, LAA and SF. Need to know if I need to get a new list

  28. WOOOO, I was way off. Thanks for the list

  29. Joc hitting 8th. Any concern?

  30. Is anyone concerned about the weather in cincy? I have Cubs all over the place in my lineups… Thoughts?


    • It looks like the rain risk decreases over the course of evening. But I think still a concern

    • Similar pattern to last night in Cincinnati biggest concern would be rolling with Lester if there’s any type of delay

  31. Thoughts on this for cash lineups? I know the optimizer doesn’t approve but I seem to like it.

    P: Nola
    P: Sanchez
    C: Grandal
    1B: Gonzalez
    2B: Walker
    3B: Arenado
    SS: Bogarts
    OF: Trout
    OF: Betts
    OF: Cespedas

    • I wouldn’t play Sanchez in cash. Bad ballpark and he’s running up against all lefties. That’s a big problem for his profile

  32. Guy like Sanchez is still young though his profile isn’t set in stone as he’s still evolving as a pitcher he has filthy stuff and has looked great so far just like we know he’s bad vs lefties he knows too an has been working on his secondary pitches I wouldn’t sleep on him Oakland might be goin heavy on the lefty bats but these aren’t exactly killers we’re talking about

    • Sanchez like most young pitchers with his stuff is they’ll be cruising then all of a sudden he’s throwing pitches 2 feet from strike zone. Have seen him couple times talent is there just loses it when it seems he’s in control

  33. What are your takes on a Baltimore stack?

  34. Pay up for Harvey or down to shark is my ? On DK

  35. Thanks was going tropeano at SP2 just was trying to decide between those 2 and obviously 2 different hitters

  36. Funny thing is I told myself I’m playing Harvey no matter what after I played him last time at 8700 but was little disappointed when I saw his price this morning

  37. Any updates on weather for NYM and Harvey??

  38. Sticking with Harvey from what I’m seeing

  39. Agree just saw weather.com and showing 15% chance of rain in ATL, looks good to go

  40. Flip a coin if price doesn’t matter but would go with seager

  41. Woo thanks, had plenty cash left over but went with Seager and its already paying off

  42. Nice have seager in all my lineups as well

  43. Not sure if anyone rolling with king Felix but scratched for iwakuma so get him out of lineups if playing late or DK

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