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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/23/2016
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/23/16

Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

Blowing out in Coors!

As I write this, the wind in Coors is howling out to right at around 30 MPH. Make sure you keep an eye on this as there are also some isolated showers surrounding the area. I will update here if anything breaks. As of now, I am attacking this game as if there were no weather concerns.

DFSR 705x90

Tournament Stacks

Note - The Rockies and Dodgers are great stacks in Coors Field. You don't need me to tell you that! Here are some stacks that should be a little bit lower owned.

Chicago Cubs

Are the Cubs ever not a great tournament stack? They will be taking on Dan Straily and the Reds tonight in the Great American "Smallpark". I expect the Cubs to get to Straily early and often and score some runs. To add on, the Reds have manned the worst bullpen thus far and are basically just trying to see what sticks at this point. While that may work against a team like the Brewers or Padres, there is no chance that works against the Cubs. My favorite 6 man stack for the Cubs is Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. If you want to be super contrarian, go with some Addison Russell and fade Rizzo for a 1st baseman with just as much upside.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are going to be facing off with the one and only Colby Lewis. Lewis is due for some regressions and that could certainly come here against the speedy and powerful White Sox. My 6 favorite Sox are Eaton, Abreu, Frazier, Cabrera, Lawrie and Saladino. While Colby Lewis has not been horrible against either righties or lefties, his peripherals suggest otherwise. With an xFIP over 4.00, Lewis is ready to implode this year. This ballpark is only going to help with the wind blowing out as I write this. Make sure all these guys are in the lineup and plug them in.

 

Sneaky Pitcher

Jake PeavyJake Peavy FD 6200 DK 7400
Opponent - MIA (Fernandez) Park - @SF
FD - 31.28 DK - 15.76

While Peavy isn't the sexy option he was a few years ago, he still has a little bit left in the tank. The Marlins are a team that can be taken advantage of if you can get past Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon. In 2015, Peavy showed his ability by keeping his xFIP below 3.8 against both sides of the plate. While I won't advise Peavy in tournaments due to lack of upside, I could get behind Peavy in cash games if you are looking to pay up for some bats in good spots.

 

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Note - Not going to mention any Dodgers or Rockies here. They are all in a very good spot in Coors Field. Here are some guys that will go a bit under owned.

Maikel FrancoMaikel Franco FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.93 DK - 10.29

Franco and Chase Anderson are both players with reverse splits. Anderson gave up a.325 wOBA and 11 home runs to righties last year while Franco displayed a .393 wOBA against righties. Franco will be going from an average park to a great one in Miller Park that will only help him get one out today. I look for Franco to get a hold of one and let it fly today.

Jose AbreuJose Abreu FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.79 DK - 10.87

I could of put a number of different White Sox here, but let's go with the power bat. Abreu is another player with some severe reverse splits. In 2015, Abreu hit righties to the tune of a .384 wOBA. His peripherals suggest he will only improve as his hard hit rate was a bit higher. Colby Lewis on the other hand, has already seen some regression with 5 home runs given up this year in under 20 innings. Look for the White Sox to pile on here.

One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!

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27 Visitor Comments

  1. If anyone has any questions, comment below and I will get right to you! Let’s have a good Saturday!

  2. I didn’t see Wacha in the optimizer. Is he still pitching for the Cards tonight?

  3. Safe to fade Astros/Sox in early slate? I stacked White Sox and went Harper. The only thing I am back and forth on is Correa or Semien?

    • I don’t think it is necessarily “safe” but that doesn’t really matter in tournaments. I would go with Correa if you think your lineup is contrarian enough.

  4. I don’t like that we can’t play Snell on DK. That would have been a good arm to run out there.

    • I agree. It is definitely a bummer.

  5. The pitching on this early slate has me really concerned. I would definitely hedge some if possible if playing on DK. Our system has Roark as that second SP. I don’t mind it considering all other options are bad. But I’m running a couple of different scenarios.

  6. Yea definitely sucks kinda hope snell bombs today so his price and ownership is down when we can play him dudes gonna be a stud

  7. I’m taking Tanaka and Rodon for the early slate. I’m going back and forth on hitters but I’m thinking WAS/CWS stack.

  8. Like some Washington righties today was thinking Ramos an Zimmerman to go with Bryce is looking pretty good

  9. Anyone else like Miggy to take kluber yard today? He hits him really well in his career which I don’t usually put a ton of stock into but in this case it’s one of the greatest hitters ever in Miggy (career .321 hitter) so has me on the fence

    • One issue I have with BVP (among the many issues I have with it) is that it ignores general team success (or lack thereof) in overweighting a certain player. For instance, Kinsler is awful for his career against Kluber. This effects Miggy as it increases the likelihood out increased outs and less plate appearances for the latter.

      Unfortunately, the Tigers middle of the order have owned Kluber so this example isn’t perfect (still too small a sample size imho), but just because a certain batter “owns” a pitcher doesn’t spell an increased chance of success in the aggregate.

      • This is an oversimplification of course. Over the long term the Tigers have a much less likely chance of success against Kluber than most other pitchers in baseball just from the simple fact that Kluber is significantly better than most arms. Just trying to point out one of the myriad of issues in basing assumptions on this stat.

  10. Couple of other thoughts for early slate. I’m running a few more GPPs than usual and stacking A’s/ White Sox leaving money on the table.

  11. I feel guilty as Im not really doing anything that the optimizer says to do for the early slate. Im sorry lol

  12. I should have listened to optimizer and rolled with Roark over Sanchez.

  13. There was no mention of KC lefties , they are in good spot and face shaky pitcher, i think stacking them will give you some upside because everyone is focused on COORS guys.

    • KC might be good target tomorrow with Wright going and how much pen gets taxed tonight

  14. I have to say however you came up with Roark is genius, when nothing really about the guy showed this was a possibility. I unfortunately went with the “public” and took the white sox early. Getting creamed…

  15. Wilson starting Worley moved to pen looks like a bullpen game for O’s as Wilson only threw 44 pitches in last relief appearance

  16. Kike Hernandez listed as 2b/OF on DK you have him listed as 1b

  17. Hernandez pricing wrong as well 4k on DK you have him at 3600

  18. Starting tomorrow, I am going to start stacking vs my first impression of who should be a good pitcher for the day. I will also start the pitcher vs my first impression of a good stack. We will see if that works.

  19. I should of stacked against lackey then, overall i did well in 50/50’s made back the $10 i lost yesterday. Still down about $4 over the last week, but i am learning and getting better hopefully.. each day, not to mention I am now paying attention to baseball again and learning who’s a scrub and who’s not

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