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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

05/05/2016
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings- 5/5/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other stacking targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our updates articles but here we will look at other dudes to consider.

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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.

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Stack Targets

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Derek Holland (Rangers)
Park - Rogers Centre

Oh, Blue Jays. You are so disappointing. Trust me, I want to roster these guys just as much as anyone. Not at all. However, they are going to turn this slump around in a huge way and the people that wait it out are going to be rewarded. Derek Holland is a left handed pitcher who has struggled against righties over the course of his career. Since 2009, Holland has given up a .335 wOBA and 4.17 xFIP to righties. While those numbers are not horrible, he has been in a steady decline since entering the league. One thing I also like to look at is pitch arsenal. Holland throws a sinker the majority of the time against righties. While you may think groundball when you hear sinker, I think home run. Yes, the goal of throwing a sinker is to induce groundballs, however, if a mistake is made and the sinker is left up, a home run is very likely. For example, Holland induced only 4 groundballs last week in 17 plate appearances.

The Blue Jays will likely trout out a lineup of 7 or 8 righties with 5 or 6 of them having home run power. I do prefer home run hitters against the sinker as the pitch in itself is more boom or bust. Therefore, my 5 favorite Blue Jays are Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, Smoak and Tulowitzki. All 5 of these guys have a wOBA over .356, a wRC+ over 125 and a SLG over .564. These guys all have showed their ability to hit left handed pitching and we definitely can't use this year's small sample size. The Blue Jays are going to dominate left handed pitching by the end of the year and that could begin tonight against a bad lefty in the Rogers Centre.

Boston Red Sox vs. Erik Johnson (White Sox)
Park - U.S. Cellular Field

Erik Johnson is re-entering our lives after the injury sustained in the off-season. Johnson is a pitcher with severe splits as evidenced by the .281 wOBA to righties and .418 wOBA to lefties. In 41 innings, Johnson have given up 9 home runs and 20 earned runs to lefties. While Johnson once threw a 94 MPH fastball but has decreased to around 91, a huge difference. Johnson has never been an effective pitcher and to me that is because of his secondary pitches, or lack thereof. Johnson's secondary pitches consist of a changeup, slider and cutter. All 3 of these pitches have given up a +.337 wOBA to lefties and a 36% hard contact rate. Erik Johnson is going to struggle if he can't get his velocity up and his secondary pitches more effective. Let's take a look at my favorite batters from this Red Sox lineup.

The Red Sox have a few lefties in the lineup that dominate righties in David Ortiz, Travis Shaw, Brock Holt and Xander Bogaerts. These 4 guys all sported wOBA's over .355 over the last 2 years. While Fenway Park is a great hitters ballpark, U.S. Cellular is better, especially for lefties and line drive hitters. Ortiz, Shaw, Holt and Bogaerts are certainly my favorite targets in this lineup and if I had to choose 2 more, they would be Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez. Both of these guys have as much upside as anyone and will likely see a great match up out of the bullpen. They have hit righties just fine over their career with a wRC+over 120. The Red Sox are going to be a lower owned stack that has as much upside as anyone.

Houston Astros vs. Wade Miley (Mariners)
Park - Minute Maid Park

The Houston Astros went absolutely insane last night and ended the game with 16 runs, 14 hits and 3 home runs. While we may not be able to expect that, The Astros have as much upside as anyone in the league with the speed and power in the lineup. The Astros will be facing off with Wade Miley in a game with an 8.5 over/under in Minute Maid Park. Miley is a left handed pitcher that struggled against righties in 2015. Miley exhibited a .331 wOBA and 30% FB rate to righties in 2015. Miley gave up 11 of his 25 home runs to left field over the last 2 years. However, If he was playing in Minute Maid every game, he would have given up 23 home runs to left field, an atrocious number. Miley is a guy I love to target in hitter ballparks as his numbers are kept up by pitching in Seattle.

As mentioned, the Astros are a team with insane upside. The Astros are another team that destroys lefties with power and speed bats throughout the lineup. My favorite 5 Astros tonight are going to be Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, George Springer and Colby Rasmus. While Rasmus is not very good against lefties, h e is very dominant against righties. The reason that matters is because if the Astros get to Miley, a righty will come out of the bullpen early, which will result in Rasmus having 2 or 3 at-bats in a good match up. The Astros have huge boom or bust potential tonight and I am fully expecting the boom. As a side note, I do not mind any of the righties in cash games as well.

 

 

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3 Visitor Comments

  1. I love what you guys do here on this site but you’re in desperate need of an editor.

    • What exactly are you referring to in this article?

  2. I see way more spelling mistakes and double words on fd then here and they must be a billion dollar company by now

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