Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/14/16

 

Welcome to Saturday baseball! Make sure to check out our 3 other articles as they will touch on tournament stacks, some more pitching options and any weather news that is of note. Let's get into the top options at each position.

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PITCHER

Early Slate

Corey Kluber FD 10100 DK 11400
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @CLE
FD - 42.97 DK - 24.33

First of all, let's touch on Jake Arrieta real quick. If salary wasn't a thing, Arrieta would likely be my top pitcher on the slate, however, salary is a big deal. Corey Kluber comes in at about $2000 dollars cheaper around the industry and projects very close to Arrieta's number. Kluber had an absolute horrible game last time out against the Astros but has showed his upside with some huge games over the last month. The Minnesota Twins are a team that has struggled as a whole against righties with a 23% strikeout rate in that split and in the bottom third in team wOBA. The ballpark helps here and I really like the slight discount you are getting on Kluber. His 3.19 xFIP is a full run lower than the ERA thanks in large part to a 61% LOB% (10% or so lower than his career number).  Kluber is my top pitcher on the slate in both cash games and tournaments.

Consider - Jake Arrieta

Late Slate

Aaron Nola FD 8400 DK 9500
Opponent - CIN (Adleman) Park - @PHI
FD - 35.39 DK - 19.38

This late slate is a lot less appealing at the pitcher position which puts us on Aaron Nola as our top pitcher. Nola has pitched extremely well to start the year with 5 or more strikeouts and less than 2 walks in each game. The Cincinnati Reds have been horrible on the road this year as evidenced by their league's 3rd worst .275 wOBA. I expect that trend to continue throughout the season as they do not have very many talented bats in the lineup. Nola has held both righties and lefties to a combined .270 wOBA and a 26.5% hard contact rate. This game is being played in Citizens Bank Park which only helps Nola's case. I prefer Nola in tournaments as he does have a lot of blow up potential, however, he has just as much upside.

Hisashi Iwakuma FD 8000 DK 7700
Opponent - LAA (Chacin) Park - @SEA
FD - 31.54 DK - 16.41

Iwakuma was regarded as one of the better pitchers in the league only 2 years ago. While he is certainly far from that, he got very unlucky last year and will certainly improve on his numbers entering this season. Iwakuma has improved his arsenal coming into the year with an added 3 MPH on his fastball and some more movement on his slider and changeup. This will likely lead to a higher strikeout rate to both lefties and righties and a lower walk rate as well. The Angels are a team that really struggles against right handed pitchers as evidenced by the leagues 4th worst .284 wOBA. Surprisingly, I am comfortable with Iwakuma in both tournaments and cash games due to the lack of pitching options on this late slate.

Consider - Stephen Strasburg, Tim Adleman

CATCHER

Early Slate

Wilson Ramos FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @WSH
FD - 2.22 DK - 1.73

Ramos has been crushing the ball to start this season with a .410 wOBA and a .563 slugging percentage against both righties and lefties. Ramos has consistently been a quality hitter over the course of his career and it looks like he will continue that into this season. Nicolino has a lot of potential and while I expect him to have a good career, he is still getting acquainted to the majors and is someone we can target for the time being. Nicolino has given up a .320 wOBA and 8 home runs to righties in only 74 innings. I am comfortable with Ramos in all formats as he is not reliant on power to hit value.

Consider - Stephen Vogt, David Ross

Late Slate

Victor Martinez FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.43

Victor Martinez is a guy you almost have to just plug and play on this late slate. He is a guy who hits extremely well from both sides of the plate and will hitting lefty today. Over the previous 3 seasons, Martinez has hit righties to a .390 wOBA and a 37.6% hard contact rate. Wright has been pitiful against lefties to start his career with a .417 wOBA and has given up 7 home runs in only 34 innings of work. The Tigers are likely going to have a big game tonight and Martinez will be right in the middle of it all.

Consider - Welington Castillo

 

FIRST BASE

Early Slate

Ryan Zimmerman FD 3000 DK 5300
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.4

Zimmerman is going to be our second Washington Nationals bat here and considering we are only at 1st base, that may tell you our opinion on the Nationals offense as a whole. Zimmerman has finally returned his normal form with 2 home runs in a game 3 nights ago. Zimmerman has hit lefties extremely well over the course of his career with a .387 wOBA and a 36.5% hard contact rate. Zimmerman has also hit better at home with a .415 wOBA compared to a .326 wOBA on the road. As mentioned, Nicolino has struggled against righties and there is no sign of him improving anytime soon. This Nationals lineup is going to get to Nicolino here and Zimmerman will be in the middle of it all.

Consider - Anthony Rizzo

Late Slate

Lucas Duda FD 3800 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @COL
FD - 16.02 DK - 12.04

Duda is going to be very highly owned tonight and I will be right on board with the crowd. This game in Coors Field is going to accumulate a ton of runs and we should definitely be looking to get exposure to both the Mets and Rockies side of the ball. Eddie Butler has been horrible against lefties over the past 3 seasons with a .451 wOBA and a 36.4% hard contact rate. Lucas Duda has been excellent against righties over the course of his career with a .364 wOBA and .523 slugging percentage. This game is currently sitting at an over/under of 11 and may go up as the day progresses. Make sure you get exposure to this Mets team and Duda is a great way to do so.

Brett Wallace FD 2600 DK 3400
Opponent - MIL (Cashner) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.54

If you want to get a guy with a ton of power at a bargain bin price, Brett Wallace is your guy. Wallace is moving from Petco Park, the league's worst hitters park, to Miller park, a top 5 hitters park in the league. Wily Peralta has struggled against keeping the ball in play against lefties. Over the past 3 seasons, Peralta has given up a HR/9 rate of 1.00+ and his peripherals suggest it may actually go up if anything at all. Wallace on the other hand, has hit righties well with a .331 wOBA and a 32.1% hard contact rate. Wallace is going to be very low owned across the industry tonight and gives you a very good chance of getting a cheap home run.

Consider - Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion

 

SECOND BASE

Early Slate

Jason Kipnis FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.4 DK - 9.27

Jason Kipnis and the Indians are taking on a weak right handed pitcher in Ervin Santana today in Cleveland. Ervin Santana has struggled mightily over the past couple years with a combined wOBA of .388 and a hard contact rate of 39.4% to lefties. Kipnis has been swinging the bat well over the past 10 games with 15 hits over the last 10 games. I expect Kipnis to continue that trend tonight against Santana and will be in a ton of RBI opportunities.

Consider - Ben Zobrist, Derek Dietrich

Late Slate

Neil Walker FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @COL
FD - 14.65 DK - 11.3

Here is the second of many Mets players in this write-up and I won't go too far into why they are such great plays once again. Eddie Butler is a pitcher we all need to target here as he has never shown any signs of improvement against lefties or righties. Neil Walker is a very good hitter against righties as evidenced by his 2015 wOBA of .340. Let's hope Neil Walker is low owned!

Cesar Hernandez FD 2100 DK 2900
Opponent - CIN (Adleman) Park - @PHI
FD - 8.74 DK - 7.45

While Adleman is a decent play in tournaments, Cesar Hernandez is also in play in all formats. While it may not seem like it, Cesar Hernandez has been one of the better hitters on this Phillies team. Adleman has struggled against lefties and has also struggled at holding runners on base. Hernandez stole 19 bases last season in only 127 games which gives him a ton of upside in this match up. Hernandez has sported a .327 wOBA over the last 2 years and his high hard contact rate suggest he will improve with age.

Consider - Jean Segura

 

SHORTSTOP

Early Slate

Jimmy Rollins FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - NYY (Nova) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.88 DK - 8.93

Jimmy Rollins hit a home run last night and has 4 hits in the last 2 games. Rollins has shown just how good he still is and I expect him to have at least a few more good seasons. Ivan Nova has struggled mightily against lefties over the past 3 seasons as evidenced by his .387 wOBA and a 39.9% hard contact rate. This match up sets extremely well for Rollins as the short porch in right field is very easy to hit hit a home run to. The White Sox will score a bunch of runs in this one and Rollins will be hitting in the heart of the lineup.

Consider - Brad Miller

Late Slate

Jonathan Villar FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.65 DK - 10.42

Jonathan Villar is a player I love to roster as he brings a ton of upside to a position with a lack of production. Villar has hit righties well so far this season as evidenced by his .316 wOBA and 34.4% hard contact rate.While Andrew Cashner is considered an overall good pitcher, the numbers don't back it up. In 2015, Cashner gave up a .383 wOBA and a 35.8% hard contact rate against lefties. This is a great ballpark for hitters as it ranked 8th last season for left handed power.

Consider - Trevor Story, Asdrubal Cabrera

 

THIRD BASE

Early Slate

Kris Bryant FD 4400 DK 4800
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.64

Kris Bryant and the Cubs are in a great spot here against Jeff Locke in Wrigley Field. The wind is currently blowing out and if that holds, you can bump up all of these Cubs hitters. Jeff Locke struggled against righties mightily with a .400 wOBA and very high hard contact rate of 37.5% hard contact rate. Kris Bryant has been one of the better hitting 3rd baseman over the past year or so as evidenced by his .385 wOBA and 38.5% hard contact rate. I look for the Cubs to have a great game today and Kris Bryant is the top right handed hitter in the lineup.

Consider - Anthony Rendon

Late Slate

David Wright FD 3600 DK 5400
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @COL
FD - 13.33 DK - 10.48

Maikel Franco FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Adleman) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.25

Consider - Nolan Arenado, Kyle Seager

 

OUTFIELD

Early Slate

Dexter Fowler FD 4000 DK 5100
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.82
Jorge Soler FD 2100 DK 3700
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.94 DK - 7.69

As mentioned, the Cubs are in a great spot here against the Pirates and the struggling Jeff Locke. Locke has given up a putrid .400 wOBA against righties and his peripherals suggest he may actually get worse. Locke has given up a 38.9% hard contact rate, a 5.23 BB rate and a very low 0.83 K/9. Both Soler and Fowler are seeing the ball well and are in great spots here against Locke. Fowler has exhibited a .400 wOBA against lefties thus far and Soler on the other hand has exhibited a .321 wOBA over the last couple years. This ballpark is a huge bump for PNC Park and if the wind is blowing out, these guys are top plays of the day.

Aaron Hicks FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.14 DK - 8.15

Aaron Hicks has been in the meat of the lineup against lefties recently and rightfully so. Hicks has hit lefties to a .338 wOBA and a 38.2% hard contact clip over the past 4 years. While Quintana is not a guy I like to necessarily target, he has struggled against right over the last couple years. In 2015, Quintana gave up a .320 wOBA and 27% FB rate to righties. This ballpark sets up very well for Hicks as he can spread the ball around the field very well. I expect the Yankees to get to Quintana today and Hicks will likely be hitting 2nd. I do prefer Hicks in tournaments as he is a bit power reliant.

Consider - Jayson Werth, Melky Cabrera

Late Slate

Curtis Granderson FD 3700 DK 5400
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @COL
FD - 15.99 DK - 12.46
Michael Conforto FD 4000 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @COL
FD - 16.11 DK - 12.46

Here is another great outfield combo and of course it is coming from Coors Field. As mentioned, Eddie Butler is very bad against lefties and I don't think I need to say it anymore. Both Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto have demolished righties over the course of their career with a +.341 wOBA and +33.7% hard contact rate. This game is going to be extremely high scoring and these guys are a main part of the Mets offense.

Carlos Gonzalez FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - NYM (Verrett) Park - @COL
FD - 14.87 DK - 11.41

Is this a surprise? Another Coors Field play? The DFS field has been off of Coors Field and it is going to produce a 25 run game very soon. The Coors Field ownership has been sitting way lower than it should and I really hope they are below 25% once again. Carlos Gonzalez has been in a rut lately and will soon break out. This could certainly be the day it happens against Logan Verrett. CarGo is my pick for home run of the night.

Consider - Adam Jones, Steven Moya

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