Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
AAA 400 Drive for Autism

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AAA 400 Drive for Autism

Dover International Speedway - Dover, Delaware
Track - 1 Mile Oval Short Track
24° Banking in the Corners

 

Just when you thought we were finally done talking about lug nuts, the subject is once again on front page news. After winning his third race of the 2016 season, Kyle Busch's crew chief was fined $20,000 and suspended one race. The #18 team front tire changer was also suspended for one race and both members of the crew were placed on probation until December 31, 2016. It came just one week after NASCAR implemented a new ruled stating all five lug nuts had to be on the car at the end of the race. The #18 tried bending the rules slightly by having all five lug nuts on but only four tightened. NASCAR has now made it perfectly clear that all five lug nuts must be tight in post race inspection. Maybe this will be the last we here about the lug nut issue. I sure hope so!

This week NASCAR's top series heads to Dover International Speedway for the AAA 400 Drive for Autism on Sunday afternoon. Dover is a 1 mile oval short track with steep 24° banking in the corners. It is often compared to Bristol as both have steep banking on concrete tracks. Drivers get to race here twice during each season with one race here in May and the other as part of the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoffs.

For fantasy this week it will be very important to find the driver who is going to lead a ton of lap. In the past five years(10 races) there has been seven races where one driver has dominated over half of the laps led and in the other three races two drivers dominated the laps led. Pay close attention to not only practice times but also the 10 lap averages which will be a great indicator of who can maintain speed on long green flag runs.

I will again be selling a cheatsheet every week of the NASCAR season. It will include drivers salaries for DraftKings and FantasyFeud, current form(last 5 races), track history(last 5 years), and I update the cheatsheet throughout the weekend following practice and qualifying. With the purchase of the cheatsheet you also get a few sample lineups. These lineups will almost always change following qualifying and practice so be sure to check lineup page before lineups lock on Sunday.

I have added weighted rankings for Track History, Current Form, Season Loop Data and Practice/Qualifying. This will help better identify the best values each week and can be full customized by the user. Just download the View Only version from the lineups page and create copy which will then allow you to change any weights or sort any column you wish.

*New Update* This week I have added another tab called Salary Trends. It is a list of all drivers and their week by week salaries on DraftKings.

If you have any questions about the cheatsheet throw me an email(jagerbombs99@gmail.com) or hit me up on Twitter(@jager_bombs9).

 

Upper Tier Targets ($9,000+)

 

Jimmie Johnson 
DraftKings - $10,700
Fantasy Feud - $265,000
Practice #1 - 21st
Qualified - 21st
Practice 2 - 12th
Final Practice - 13th

It is hard to argue with the success that Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team have had here at Dover. Jimmie has 10 career wins here and a career 9.07 average finish which is amazing considering he has raced here 28 times. In the last five years(10 races) Jimmie has four wins, seven Top 5's, eight Top 10's and a 8.0 average finish andhas also led the more laps(1,377) than any other driver in that time. The #48 team has already picked up two wins and is locked into the Chase but Jimmie will be looking to turnthings around after a disappointing last month with three finishes outside of 20th place. No better place to get back on track(pun intended) than the Monster Mile.

 

Kevin Harvick
DraftKings - $10,400
Fantasy Feud - $240,000
Practice #1 - 1st
Qualified - 1st
Practice 2 - 10th
Final Practice - 2nd

 

I have decided to skip over the two Joe Gibbs Racing cars in the $10K range this week. Busch will be without his crew chief and Kenseth has been struggling to this point. Both make GPP plays for sure but I am going to lean on Kevin Harvick this week. He leads NASCAR in Loop Data rating so far in 2016 as he has picked up a win and finished inside the Top 10 in all but two races. In the past five years here at Dover he has a win, three Top 5's, seven Top 10's and a 8.2 average finish. It's safe to say he knows how to get around this track. He came close to picking up his second win of the season last week but couldn't get past Kyle Busch. Expect him to be up front for most of the day and contend for another win this weekend.

 

Martin Truex Jr. 
DraftKings - $9,700
Fantasy Feud - $215,000
Practice #1 - 7th
Qualified - 7th
Practice 2 - 7th
Final Practice - 7th

If the #78 team didn't have bad luck they wouldn't have any at all. They were the dominant car last Saturday night at Kansas(led 172 laps) until a loose wheel forced them to take an unscheduled pit stop and lose the lead for good. Truex Jr. has been fast all year and has the third best average running position(8th) so far in 2016. While he hasn't picked up a Top 10 in the last 10 races here, he does have a 13.4 average finish and is trending in the right direction. If he can shake the bad luck he will be back in victory lane very soon.

 

Also Consider - Kurt Busch

Middle Tier Targets ($6,500-$9,000)

 

Brad Keselowski
DraftKings - $8,900
Fantasy Feud - $195,000
Practice #1 - 14th
Qualified - 14th
Practice 2 - 13th
Final Practice - 14th

He followed up his win at Talladega with another Top 10 finish last weekend at Kansas. He is locked in to the Chase but is definitely not short motivation to to pick up as many trophies as possible this season. In the last five years(10 races) at Dover, Brad has picked up a win, four Top 5's and a average finish of 12.0 due to a few wrecks along the way. He has the upside to win every week in the Sprint Cup series and comes in at a terrific value under $9K as the 10th most expensive option on DraftKings.

 

 

Kyle Larson 
DraftKings - $7,900
Fantasy Feud - $155,000
Practice #1 - 23rd
Qualified - 23rd
Practice 2 - 6th
Final Practice - 12th

It has not been the start of the season that Kyle Larson or the #42 team was looking for after an impressive rookie campaign. After a promising start with a 7th place finish at the Daytona 500 they have only picked up one other Top 10(3rd at Bristol) and sit back in 21st in the Sprint Cup standings. He will be in a great spot this weekend to improve his position in the standings as he returns to Dover where he has fared quite well. He raced here four times and picked up a Top 5 and finished each of the last three races here inside the Top 10. He is a very talented driver who is much better than his results have shown. I will be using him in all formats this week and think he could possibly be under owned in GPP due to his current form.

 

Also Consider - Chase Elliott

 

 

Low End Targets ($6,500 and Below)

 

Clint Bowyer
DraftKings - $6,400
Fantasy Feud - $85,000
Practice #1 - 32nd
Qualified - 32nd
Practice 2 - 21st
Final Practice - 30th

It is a transition season for Clint Bowyer as he joined with HScott Motorsports for the 2016 season before taking over for Tony Stewart in the #14 next season. To say it has been frustrating start would be an under statement. Clint only recorded one Top 20 finish(18th at Fontana) in his first seven races. Things have started to turn around as he not only has three Top 20's in the last four races but also two Top 10's(Talladega and Bristol). Things are trending in the right direction and he is at season low $6,400 salary. In the last 10 races here at Dover he has two Top 5's, nine Top 10's, and a 8.0 average finish. I wouldn't trust in cash games but will have a ton of exposure in GPP's this week.

Also Consider - Danica Patrick

 

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10

 

 

 

 

#NASCAR’s weekend schedule for Dover https://t.co/tyCfxJyVov pic.twitter.com/yFzIvxl31P

— Zesty Nascar News (@zesty_nascar) May 12, 2016

 

 

If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.

 

Good Luck everyone!

 

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the AAA 400 Drive for Autism? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings and FantasyFeud Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.