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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/25/16 Conference Championship
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Here's what Justin wrote about this matchup the other day.
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Analysis
Who in the heck saw this one coming? After getting absolutely embarrassed in Games 1 & 2 in Cleveland, Toronto has responded in such a way that convinces me that Cleveland could actually be in some trouble in this series. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were absolutely sensational in Game 3, combining for an unthinkable 28-43 from the field in route to 67 points between the pair. Now is that likely to continue on the road in Game 5? Probably not as both of these guys have struggled some on the road this postseason, but still the confidence boost is something to keep in mind. Bismack Biyombo had another great game, and with Valanciunas looking like he's ready to play, the Raptors have all of the momentum rolling into Game 5 at the Q.
Now for Cleveland, Game 4 revealed that they should have some real concerns moving into Game 5. The biggest concern is that the poor 3-point shooting continued as they went 13-41 as a team, and it appears that Toronto is no longer resembling the team that played tissue paper strength defense on the interior in Games 1 & 2. Kyrie Irving bounced back to have a nice game but Kevin Love struggled again, and didn't even play in the 4th quarter (partly due to an ankle injury so we're told). Outside of Lebron, Kyrie, and oddly enough, Channing Frye, the entire Cavs team struggled to produce any real consistent offense. With all the talk of the team's struggles, I fully expect them to play better at home in Game 5, and take a 3-2 series lead when it's all said and done.
Top Plays
Cleveland
LeBron James - FD 9800 DK 10800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 53.41 DK Proj. Pts - 55.54
To be honest with you, this already has the feeling of one of those signature superstar games in which one player is so utterly dominant that he almost single-handedly carries his team to a victory. Lebron shot an incredible 69% from the floor in Game 4, but only took 16 shots throughout the game. I know that he prefers to get his teammates involved, and he still probably will, but given the magnitude of the situation I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Lebron get closer to 22-25 shots in this one. Look for James to put up some massive numbers in this one.
Kyrie Irving - FD 7100 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.54 DK Proj. Pts - 40.66
After really struggling in Game 3, it was a good sign for the Cavs that Irving found his shot in Game 4. Not only that, but he was doing a better job of distributing as well, given that he had 6 assists (as opposed to just 1 in Game 3). With Kevin Love and others struggling, Kyrie becomes an even more important part of this offense moving forward into Game 5. Outside of Lebron, he's the only guy on the Cavs who can consistently get his own shot, and the way the Raptors are playing defense Cleveland is going to need a big game from Kyrie. Expect the Kyrie we saw in Games 1 & 2 to show up for Game 5.
Channing Frye - FD 4000 DK 3200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 13.5 DK Proj. Pts - 14.92
The biggest beneficiary from the struggles of Love has got to be Frye, who has quietly put together back to back solid games in this series. He's shot the 3-ball extremely well in this series (11-19), and while he's not the best defender in the world, he's not much of a drop-off from Love. Given the way the Cavs played Game 4 down the stretch, if Love shows that he's struggling early on in Game 5 (assuming his ankle is fine, which is something else to keep an eye on today), Frye could see some bigger minutes off the bench in this one.
Toronto
DeMar DeRozan - FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 38.52 DK Proj. Pts - 39.57
Kyle Lowry - FD 8600 DK 8500
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 40.32 DK Proj. Pts - 42.8
While I don't expect either of these guys to perform quite as well as they have been playing at home, it's hard to ignore the amount of confidence both Lowry and DeRozan are carrying into Game 5. DeRozan has been great scoring the basketball throughout this series, and Lowry now appears to be rounding into All-star form. If Valanciunas were to return, it could create some more space on the outside for these guys to operate because Cleveland would actually have to worry about a scoring presence on the interior. Lowry feels like the safer play given that he's less reliant on scoring, but given the other PG's on the slate I'd be more likely to lean DeRozan if I had to pick between the two.
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder
Analysis
Oh my, oh my. This is nuts. It just feels nuts. I'm almost at a loss at how this series has unfolded and that Golden State is going to need to run the table now is crazy. It isn't luck that OKC is on the brink of the Finals. They've played out of their minds. And it's a testament to what a team can do when they have two of the top seven players in the league running. If Durant and Westbrook are going to pitch perfect games then there aren't many teams who can hang. Combine this with Curry shooting 5-22 from three over the last two games and you have a Thunder 3-1 series lead.
The series shifts back to Golden State now and you have to think they'll pull out all the stops in order to just stay afloat. The Warriors are still dangerous, the best team in the league (though that mantle might pass soon) and they have an insane home court advantage. But we are now a game away from OKC moving to the finals and waiting to see what happens in the Eastern Conference. I can't believe I'm writing that.
Top Plays
Russell Westbrook - FD 10000 DK 11200
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
Kevin Durant - FD 9900 DK 10300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.18
It goes without saying now and we are running out of words to put their roles in perspective. KD and Russ are the engine by which OKC runs and they are playing insane minutes even in games like the last one which were put away with time to spare. As long as it's close in game five look for the Thunder to try their damndest to end the thing. If that means running these two minutes in the mid 40's then so be it. Combined they put up 51 shots in game four. That kind of usage is just nuts and doesn't look to go away anytime soon.
Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 6300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.31 DK Proj. Pts - 27.81
Didn't play crazy minutes last game thanks to some fouls and the fact OKC didn't really need him down the stretch. Don't let that sway you off Adams. He should see plenty of court time in this one as the Thunder know his presence on the court is what's solidified much of their success in this series.
Consider Andre Roberson if the minutes hold true from game four, but don't expect anything close to the scoring he put up.
Stephen Curry - FD 9900 DK 10700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 52.41 DK Proj. Pts - 56.83
He's really struggled from the field in the last two games and it's been an issue for GSW. If he's going to shoot 25% from three then they are basically dead. But those feel like outlier performances. This is still Steph and you have to think he gets on track (right?). I'm not subscribing to the gambler's fallacy of "he's due" or anything like that. But historically dude's just the best three point shooter alive and on a one-off game scenario I have him getting back on track.
Klay Thompson - FD 7200 DK 7800
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 37.31 DK Proj. Pts - 41.42
Three blowout games in a row have wreaked havoc with Klay's minutes. His rotations are set up so that if the game isn't close coming down the stretch he won't get back in the game. That's been an issue all season for Thompson mostly because the Warriors were boat-racing teams. This game projects (we hope) to stay close and I see the minutes getting back up to around 40.
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image sources
- Kyrie_Irving_2015: By Erik Drost from United States (Kyrie Irving) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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I’m still amazed there are people who make a lineup and don’t put Westbrook in it. What more proof do you need?? Oh, well. Keep on ignoring him, and I’ll keep on winning.
You got any lineups for dk bro? I been losing please help thanks
What GPP Fanduel lineups are we running with today?
I’m going with the big 3…mark my words Kevin Love will have a monster game.
I decided to try a mix that ended up with about $7000 left for power forward. I’ve avoided him since getting crappy starts from him the first 2 games. But, at $6700, I’m giving it a go.
PG R. Westbrook
PG K. Irving
SG A. Roberson
SG K. Thompson
SF A. Iguodala
SF L. James
PF S. Ibaka
PF K. Love
C S. Adams
no lie, I already have the exact same lineup
Kanter killed me last night. Why wasn’t he playing more, I have no idea. All I needed him to do was do what he did in Game 3. Not even close. It may cost me a chance to even place unless Frye, Kryie, and James play out of their minds to suffice the 2.4 fantasy points that Kanter put up.
It’s not that people want to ignore Russ, it’s the fact that people believe that the Stephen Curry in Game 4 of the Portland series will come back and match Russ point for point. But I just don’t see that happening. Lillard is nice, but he is no Westbrook. Oklahoma will end it in Oakland on Thursday.
I know it’s a bold statement but I’ve been saying it all year…Westbrook is better than Curry. Does anybody agree? Curry does one thing better-shoot. Russ does EVERYTHING else on the court better.
Triple double Westy! When was the last time Curry had one?
@Max
Yes. He is. He’s a better athlete with a better all around skill set. So, in summary, he’s a better basketball player. He’s the most exciting player I’ve seen in years. Curry (recent games notwithstanding) is the best shooter I’ve ever seen. But as this series has shown, there is a sustainability problem as it regards relying on the outside shot. Russell’s biggest problem is playing out of control – when he does – and decision making. The turnovers. Oof, the turnovers. But he’s remarkable. Stunning. My father-in-law played pro and he agrees. Which is obviously validating.
And let’s not forget something else… Billy Donovan just might be a really, really good coach. I very much suspect he is.
I love Steph Curry. He’s a magician and he earns me $$$, but yes, since January, when I first began to watch NBA basketball for the first time in 30 years, I’ve opined that ‘That kid on OKC is an amimal.’ He’ll beat you any way he has to or wants. (This before I saw him reach a triple double or something before half in a game… I assume he had to leave early). Steph is the best pure shooter ever, but he can’t win a game alone like I think RW could. He’s got all-around mad skills and more energy, athleticism and determination than anyone else in the league.
I scored 371.2 last night in a 5800 person FD tourney. Tied for 1st with 2 others. I’m not boasting at all, I just want to put out some feedback. To the people on this board who constantly say go contrarian, Thank you! It came together last night thanks to instincts and good advice. I only ran 2 line ups it was a 5 max tourney. The picks that put me over the top, a very low owned Lowry and Thompson. These are all stars who everyone was off after a few bad performances. If course I had Westy and wow Roberson!!! He paid over 14x. My point, listen to the great advice on this board but think against the grain. Good luck all!
It’s good to hear that this can work if you keep trying. I’ve been having success in 50/50s with “smart” lineups, and then only getting small payoffs in tournaments. I need to go back to playing a lineup I like, and then a weird one where the stars might just align (like they did for you). Congratulations!
Thanks Rob. I used to run 20-50 tourney only line ups. But that was a rookie mistake. I’ve scaled that back to 5-10 with half being single entry. I also back that up with double ups, etc. it’s working much better. My tourney success has risen with much less bankroll at risk. Good luck!
Why isn’t Westbrook in the optimizer?
Hey Rebubula,
What was the winning lineup last night? What do you think about today’s lineup?
You Rock!!
Ya mostly luck lol! Thanks. This was winning…..
Lowry
Westbrook
Thompson
Roberson
James
Durant
Patterson
Frye
Ezeli
I’m looking for under the radar again. I think lots of people could be on Curry and I can’t blame them he could explode. But he’s a shooter, Westbrook does everything. And perhaps the Cavs get back to some 3 point shooting at home tonight?
This, thiese … Are Fanduel Lineups? I tried DK’s and FD back furing NFL and my $25 on FD was gone in three hours whereas that $25 kept me betting on DK’s for 3 months, so I don’t like it but nor do I really know the difference. What I can say without hesitation is that there is no way in hell that any DK’s Lineup (I don’t think has but 8 player slots, making this appear even weirder), but you cannot afford to Have an All*Star team Lineup, No. You want Westbrook and Durant, Yes. Doable, but you aren’t getting but maybe a Lowry or Thompson (not Both) and a bunch of DNP’s, let alone a Lebron on there at all, No wonder I hated it. How does anyone make money when everyone can just pick who they want and then everyone ties.? Seems like a sham, but whatever works for folks. (That LU above for current slate on DK’s would cost $62,300, or more than 25% over budget. You have to fill all 8 slots with someone at $2000 Mins, (and you do not want to, all players even the ‘Punts’ above cost far more than that). I’m just confused as to how anyone could hope to win with seemingly the ability to pick whomever you wanted when there are only 4 teams left? Someone help me out here?
Thanks for the info my friend!!
Is there a reason that Russ is not listed in the “positions” section of the line up optimized?
In matter of fact, none of the OKC players are listed, what gives?!
Max, I agree that Westbrook is twice the player Curry is!!! For all the folks out there that love Curry, please raise your sons to play just like him!!
1. NEVER follow your shot.
2. Right after you shoot, turn and run back down court while talking trash to the other team like there’s no way you’ve ever missed a shot.
3. Show off by unnecessarily dribbling between your legs and behind your back even when no one is really near you. (When he starts his little dribble display just stand right in front of him. He dribbles to get the defender to move, not to actually make a move on the defender. Adams played this perfectly on a fee switches last night).
4. Constantly hold your head down, looking at the ground when things aren’t going your way.
Curry is playing injured! You can’t even compare Westbrook to Curry. Put Westbrook on the Warriors, no way they will be where the Warriors are at with Curry, now way!!!
Excuses excuses!!! You’re right though. They wouldn’t be where they are at with Curry. They’d be winning with Westbrook!!!
Curry can shoot. That’s it. Period. The dribbling is unnecessary and show off. And his defense is comparable to James Harden… No existent! Go Thunder!!!!
I’m stuck between either Lowry – derozen – love. I have one spot left for a big player.
I’ve been coming here for about a month now to see if what I was thinking was actually legit or if I was way off base.. I not only have gotten better at setting my NBA line ups, I’ve become more consistent in scoring and using different strategies learned here from coming here everyday an listening to you guys.. I signed up for the monthly package and decided to buy this product because you guys have made me better player.. I’m a little more polished and I no longer make the same rookie mistakes because I know I can come here listen to you guys and at least break even.. I know you guys want to make this forum private but for the new players like me who really could use good advise this is invaluable.. Thank you for the great advise and please keep the forum open so many more people like me can come and pay for the great advise..
Lowry vs DeRozen is a toss up.. Lowry has more upside and the better match up but DeRozen a is more consistent scorer. Both suk when it comes to playing on the road but I believe they both have adjusted to the way Cleveland plays and they both need to have good games in order for Toronto to win. With that said, I would go with Lowry because he offers more upside. I believe DeRozen is a little over priced.
Is optimizer going to be fixed before tipoff?
I’ll go derozen he’s a safer bet
Any suggestions for tonights games?
I think both games will be 1 sided. I would look into some 2nd string punt options
ok.. THANKS FOR THE ADVICE
Luis Scola anyone?looks like he might b starting
Patterson is your best bet if your looking at Scola.
Didn’t Scola have about 15 FPts last night vs. Patterson’s 2? I didn’t expect to see that either, but Scola didn’t take any minutes from P.P., if anything that other bench PF did.
Any thoughts on tonight’s game? OKC win the series or GSW win at home? Not sure how to base my lineups
I think GS pulls it out tonight. Hopefully they do or no no more NBA DFS for another 5 months!
@Rebubula: That’s not as wacky a lineup as I expected! Ezeli is the only one I haven’t played at least once during the conference finals. But, I can see that playing him freed you up to play other, more expensive players (I’ve been happy riding Adams since game 1, but that $1700 difference limits me somewhat).
Ezeli did just enough to put me in first. Think I built that line up from the top down so he was probably the only C I could afford!
I play Kanter in tourney also. Generally if he goes off he will put you over the top but risky, I feel like you have to punt center in these slates as no one seems safe. Even Adams seems risky with his multiple injuries.
I’m going crazy, Ezeli or Speights? With Bogut probably getting into foul trouble again and Draymond just being the odd man out. Ezeli or Speights as the punt. Thoughts?
If you look at their stats for the series, you can’t help but notice Speights as a stand out for about $700 less than Ezeli.
You know what to do!
@Tom Holihan
Yeh, I thought Scola was going to get another dud, but 2 minutes into the game, I said, ‘Damn!’ remembering my comment. Patterson did 1 fps (now he is the dud). Can’t trust these guys one bit.
Just to give myself a reality check, see my lineup below:
Curry
Irving: 38.1
Derozan: 26.1
Roberson
Iggy
Lebron: 46.2
Patterson: 1
Love: 34.4
Adams
As you can see, this lineup is DONE!
well you’re first mistake was taking Curry over Russ, but I guess risk is the name of the game
However, if Curry gets his mojo back, Roberson goes for value, Westbrook don’t light up the board, and Iggy keeps Durant in check, I might get my entry fee back….
IF, IF, IF, IF, IF ….
@Tom Holihan: I had the opposite experience during the NFL season: I was wiped out on DK early, but I did really well on FD. I lost on the NBA at first, betting too much while trying to figure out the intricacies vs the NFL, but now I’m at a point where I’m slowly making money. It’s not a scam any more than a casino in Las Vegas is a scam: they offer the game, and you try a combination of luck and skill to beat the game. The reason I like this better than a casino is that, when I fail, it’s my own fault, rather than the luck of the draw.
@dfssleeper: yep…I have mostly the same guys, with the same turd laid by Patterson killing me.
I knew Patterson was going to suk in Cleveland but OMG one point?
@Max
It was an attempt to differentiate my lineup. I am thinking GS will get back on track with game 5. Well, they really don’t have a choice. When Curry is on fire, he is a fps goldmine.
Also, I should of faded Lebron(hard to do) on this slate and took Durant hoping he does his usual.
Derozan was contrarian over Klay. Everybody else should hit value. Not a GPP lineup to win it all but trying to be in the top 100.
Disclaimer: I am a 1st year DFS player and learning the hard way how to play (~$600 short). I am open your thoughts and opinions.
I think the winning lineup will have Speights or Ezeli.(I have not forgotten bout Tristan Thompson) I even thought bout Dion Waiters, but with Roberson amazing performance, highly doubt he will get enough minutes.
Note: Whenever Lebron does ‘okay’ and Love is doing great, Tristan has opportunities. Any other time, he is in the shadows.
Any draftkings lineup advice? What about Draymond tonight?
wtf did Morrrow come from
I read that Kerr was talking to Bogut before the game about cutting down on his fouls, so I took a flyer on him. Wow, did that work! I only wish I had picked him in more lineups.
Hey Rob I’ve stuck with him and boy did it pay off last night! Finish strong tonight!
Is your Bogut line up looking good into tonight?
I need Shumpert to pay and I’ll maybe win a FD tourney tonight. But I’m not feeling to confident lol.
@Rebubula: I wish I were that smart…at $3500, Bogut wouldn’t have hurt even before last night. But, after giving Shumpert a try earlier, it looks like Lue is going to go with 46 minutes of LeBron James tonight.
Like I said yesterday no centers are paying big so why not punt there. It came down to Shump vs Ross. My thinking, any others in my position will take Ross at home so I went contrarian.
I won my entry fee with Patterson giving me a turd. HOORAY!
Anybody feeling Jonas Valanciunas over Biz?
I’m using him in one tourney LU. Figure they have nothing to loose so if he’s looking good he may get some decent minutes. I’m guessing under 10% ownership.
@dfssleeper: Nice one…if I didn’t also have Channing Frye (who didn’t play much for no apparent reason), I also might have made my money back.
When it was either-or with the big guy or Biz during the season, I was happy to play one of them. Now, they’re both in play, so I don’t think either will reach their value.
Freakin Bogut caused me the grand prize in Fan Duel lol, who would of seen that coming? The more I play, the more I think that fantasy sports is a scam, they probably have bots that create every possible winning line up.
@All_Day_LJ: I used to think that Fan Duel and Draft Kings would fill out games the way you describe, but I don’t think that anymore. I’ve tried to be clever by joining games that have 8 out of 100 slots filled with 30 minutes to go, and the game typically gets canceled (and I get my money refunded). I’ve had other games that play out with less than their maximum: the last two 50:50 games had 207 and 191 slots out of the 227 maximum filled. After the scandal with the Draft Kings employee who won a fortune on Fan Duel, I think they’re extra careful to be above board. Just like the casinos, I think they make a ton of money legitimately, so they don’t have to cheat.
Any fanduel lineups tonight not sure should i pick scola or frye