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Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 88 – 5/29/16
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Let the good times roll! It’s Memorial Day weekend, we have a solid MMA card on Sunday, and get another chance to share our blazing-hot UFC picks (hopefully not a KOD) and cheat sheet here at DFSR. UFC Fight Night 88 is incredibly interesting in terms of fantasy with a pretty clear lack of guys (or gals) who scream first-round finish. There’s plenty to dig into, let’s get to it!
Note – I’ll be checking the comments section all wakened right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?
VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)
Vitor Miranda ($10,500)
Vegas Line: -200
Career Record: 12-4
UFC Record: 0-0
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Finishes: 9 KO / 2 Subs / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, 2nd Round KO – Marcelo Guimaraes
I know, there are way sexier names on this card, but Vitor Miranda offers what I think is the greatest chance of an early finish. Miranda has won three straight UFC fights, all by stoppage, and none of his previous seven wins (out of 8 fights) was left to the judges. “Lex Luthor” has the look of an up-and-coming star and KO’ing a guy with the name recognition of Chris Camozzi will put him on the radar of most MMA fans. Speaking of Miranda’s opponent, Camozzi has won 4-of-5, but none of those wins really stands out as impressive. Before that Camozzi had lost four straight and looked pretty bad. Among the higher priced fighters, Miranda is my choice to rack up some bonus points.
MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)
Thomas Almeida ($10,200)
Vegas Line: -165
Career Record: 20-0
UFC Record: 9-3
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Finishes: 16 KO / 3 Subs / 16 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round KO – Anthony Birchak
Almeida gets the slight edge over Renan Berao here for a couple of reasons. One, Almeida is in the main event so he theoretically has more opportunity to score points in a decision. The second is Berao is debuting at a new weight class on Sunday. Obviously, this is the biggest test of Almeida’s career against another undefeated fighter in Cody Garbrandt. I think Garbrandt has a crazy bright future but Almeida’s time is now. The 24-year old already has 20 professional fights and fantasy numbers to dream about - 95% finish rate and 80% first-round stoppages. I almost always pick the main event, so give me Almeida in all formats.
UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)
Erik Koch ($9,400)
Vegas Line: +145
Career Record: 14-4
UFC Record: 3-3
Record In Last 5: 2-3
Finishes: 4 KO / 7 Subs / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 2 KO
Last Time Out: L, 1st Round TKO – Daron Cruickshank
Yes, I like a guy who has won just one of his last four fights…I guess I should explain. First off is the elementary, Koch is fighting a late replacement in Shane Campbell. Campbell is the favorite but he hasn’t shown much finish potential (7 stoppages in in 16 career fights) and you never know about a guy’s cardio on short notice. Then Koch himself has 9 career first-round finishes, including four against UFC or WEC competition. When you look closer at Koch’s last three losses: Daron Cruickshank, Dustin Poirier, and Ricardo Lamas – you realize he has seen some beasts in the Octagon and Campbell just isn’t on that level. I don’t think you can beat the price for the potential return on Koch so he’s my upset pick for UFC Fight Night 88.
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UFC 198
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image sources
- UFC_74_Respect_Bout: By Lee Brimelow (cropped from DSC_0029) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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Oh man . These picks threw me for a loop . I’m mostly against you on these . Lemme just start with Vitor Miranda . I’m high on the guy I picked him the last two DFS events he was in , but I don’t feel like he wins this fight , and Camozzi is damn sure durable at least to the knockout . Miranda is more so just one dimensional striking while Camozzi has looked good as of late (Riggs doesn’t count lol) . Nonetheless if Miranda wins I see a decision rather than finish . I’m more inclined to possibly go Trujillo or Adam Milstead for the 10.5K or higher.
You went Thomas Almeida and while I love the guy I use him in UFC 2 all the time . I feel he loses to Garbrandt here . I’ll deff hedge this main event though . Thomas is very hittable and you that ain’t a good formula against Cody , though Almeida is very active and aggressive with his strikes . Cody can use the wrestling to stifle the offense I feel but I’m sure intrigued to see what will happen . Erik Koch hasn’t fought in a while and I feel he will have ring rust and Shane campbell is a dynamic counter striker with above average TDD . His standup credentials are well documented . I like Stephens a bit more for a GPP underdog or Camozzi. Overall I do not see plenty of finishes but this is an intriguing card . It looks like I’m banking on Milstead so far to get that 1st round KO but ehh we will see how it goes . I haven’t even put lineups together yet . Still researching . Good article though
Divine, thanks for your input! I went with Garbrandt from reading your post over Almeida! MUCH appreciation.
Hey Divine, I like Trujillo but at his price I think the value on Miranda is better. Camozzi hasn’t been that impressive to me, and yea Riggs definitely doesn’t count :). If Miranda doesn’t get the finish and is dragged into deep water it could be a problem. But like you said, there isn’t much finish potential on the card and Miranda, I think, offers a rare opportunity at that.
The main event is tight but again at just $10,200 I can’t pass on Almeida, interesting fight for sure. For the upset, I feel like everyone is sleeping on Koch. I know he’s been out but I don’t see Stephens finishing him and eventually Koch being at a high level should be the difference.
Razor thin card for sure though, thanks for reading!
What do you think about the Felder fight? I watched him a few times and I don’t see a guy that should be among the most expensive. Am I missing something with him?
I like Felder too, he has finished 8/13 fights but more importantly he’s a -300 favorite against Burkman. Burkman can be finished and has struggled lately. It’s not that Felder is OUTSTANDING but he has a good matchup.
I didn’t pick him. I took the guys you mentioned above and some other guys like Milstead that others liked.
Nice, you’re 2-0 (Koch and Milstead) with some finishes. If Miranda comes through, his owenership is pretty low, should be a good night for you. Good luck!
Dear God guys, did you see that?!!! I thought Garbrandt had a bright future….my mistake, this kid’s time is now. WOW!
Divine Prodigy, your insight was spot on for the late rounds, at least that is all I played in. Dailyfantasysportsrankings, please replace Shaun Ihasz with Divine Prodogy. Shaun it is time to retire from MMA analization, maybe find a job as a weatherman, the old time ones that had no radar or satellite imaging. What a choke job, Kevin Durant style.
One bad week and the boo birds are out. I had a contrarian play right and Almeida was chalk at 70-80%, it happens in DFS sometimes. But thanks for the support Jacob, means a lot 🙂
Shaun , you’re doing fine . Nice call on Koch ….guy looked like an animal . On this event I finished 15th in the $3 Haymaker. I’m coming for that 1st place and I’m sure I’ll get it . This next card may just be the one . I look forward to your UFC 199 article