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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/31/16
Welcome to Tuesday baseball! We have an interesting day here with a somewhat split slate. In the afternoon, we have 3 games and starting at 7 EST, we have 12 more. We will be focusing on the main slate, however, I will put a consider section below each position for the early slate. Make sure to check out our 3 other articles as they will touch on some more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns. Let's get into the top plays at each position!
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PITCHER
Jake Arrieta FD 12000 DK 13000
Opponent - LAD (Kazmir) Park - @CHC
FD - 40.95 DK - 23.47
While I think it is very clear that Clayton Kershaw is the league's top pitcher, Jake Arrieta is definitely the leading candidate for 2nd. Arrieta has been absolutely dominant over the past 2 seasons as evidenced by a .223 wOBA and 2.76 xFIP which is all backed up by a 2.75 SIERA. While the Dodgers have been a bit better recently, they are still ranked 22nd against righties with a .305 wOBA and 92 wRC+. Arrieta threw a no-hitter against the Dodgers last year and while we certainly can't expect that, I look for Arrieta to have a very solid outing tonight. I am comfortable with Arrieta in both cash games and tournaments, however he is very expensive and I think it is viable to look at some cheaper options like Matz or Fernandez.
Corey Kluber FD 9500 DK 10400
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @CLE
FD - 37.87 DK - 21.51
On the early slate, Kluber is far and away the top option and it is not close at all. Kluber has been pitching well recently with 4 of his last 5 starts being quality starts and has recorded 27 strikeouts in that time span. Kluber has sported a +24% strikeout rate since 2013 and his 3.42 SIERA has backed up his production. This Texas Rangers one is not one I love to target, however, they are taking a ballpark downgrade and have struck out at a 22% clip in 2015 against righties. I expect Kluber to have a quality start here and his expected production is much higher than anyone else on the early slate.
Consider - Jose Fernandez, Steven Matz
CATCHER
Russell Martin FD 2600 DK 3400
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.51 DK - 7.31
Moving on to catcher, it is not a very plentiful position, however, Russell Martin and Yadier Molina are the in the best spots. Starting off with Martin, he is taking on C.C. Sabathia, an aged left hander that has struggled against righties for a while now. In 2015, Sabathia gave up a .370 wOBA and a 4.31 xFIP to right handers. With his increasing age and decreasing velocity, we can expect his production to go down even more. Russell Martin on the other hand, hit lefties extremely well over the past 3 years with a .386 wOBA and a 34.2% hard contact rate. Martin is my favorite cash game play and I like him in tournaments as well.
Yadier Molina FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.07 DK - 7.97
Sure, Yadier Molina is no fun to roster. He lacks power and hits in the bottom of the Cardinals order. However, let's look at the positives. The Cardinals are facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate and Molina will have plenty of RBI and run scoring opportunities. While Molina doesn't have too much power upside, he has 11 doubles against right handers this season. Molina is a great cash game play tonight as he has a ton of safety in this match up.
Consider - Evan Gattis
FIRST BASE
Byung-ho Park FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.58
Byung-ho Park has entered the majors this year and has already proven his power upside with 9 home runs and a 41.2% hard contact rate. He enters into a match up here with Erik Surkamp, a left handed pitcher that has given up a .377 wOBA to righties over the course of his career. Surkamp is young and there may be some impending improvement, however, he has not shown any signs of that at this point. His 5.41 SIERA and 5.16 xFIP suggest those improvements will not come anytime soon. Byung-ho Park is a great play in all formats, on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Mark Reynolds FD 3800 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @COL
FD - 14.26 DK - 10.89
The Rockies and Reds meet up once again tonight after a 19 run game last night. While it is very difficult to predict that again, it is never out of the question in Coors Field. The Rockies are taking on Jon Moscot tonight, a right handed pitcher that has struggled over his short major league career. Dating back to 2015, Moscot has sported a 6.02 SIERA and a .346 wOBA. Mark Reynolds on the other hand, has been good against righties this season with a .367 wOBA and 112 wRC+. Reynolds is a great cash game and tournament play due to the opposition and ballpark.
Consider - Adam Lind
SECOND BASE
Brian Dozier FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.46 DK - 9.06
Dozier has been hitting extremely well over the last 5 games with a hit in each and 2 extra base hits. While that is not a good stat to use to predict the future, it is always nice to see a guy swinging the bat well. Dating back to 2014, Dozier has hit lefties well with a .347 wOBA and a 34.2% hard contact rate. As previously mentioned, Eric Surkamp is a lefty that has struggled immensely against both righties and lefties. Dozier is a quality play in both cash games and tournaments. This Twins team is in a great spot and Dozier is one of the best hitters on the team.
DJ LeMahieu FD 3400 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @COL
FD - 12.51 DK - 10.66
If this game was in anywhere besides Coors Field, LeMahieu would be out of play. However, that's not the case. This game is sitting at an 11 over/under, which puts everyone in play to a degree. Second base is not a deep position, which makes Lemahieu a much better play than if he was at a more plentiful position. LeMahieu has hit righties pretty well over the last 3 seasons with a .312 wOBA and has backed it up with a solid 30% hard contact rate. I am comfortable with Lemahieu in both tournaments and cash games if he is hitting above 7th in the lineup.
Consider - Robinson Cano
SHORTSTOP
Aledmys Diaz FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.65 DK - 8.54
Aledmys Diaz has entered into the majors this season and has demolished both lefties and righties. He will be facing off with Wily Peralta today, a right handed pitcher that has had serious issues against righties. Peralta has sported a .461 wOBA against righties and while he may not be that bad, his peripherals suggest he is going to legitimately struggle against righties. Diaz on the other hand, has sported a .400 wOBA and a 36.2% hard contact rate against righties. Diaz is a great play in both cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel where he is only $2900.
Consider - Carlos Correa
THIRD BASE
Josh Donaldson FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.95 DK - 10.62
You probably know us well enough by now to realize we aren't going to let a soft southpaw match up in the Rogers Centre go by without recommending Donaldson. That .250 batting average is no doubt disappointing in your season-long league and probably every DFS player in the universe has been burned by a Donaldson this season, but don't waver. He's still mashing lefties (.478 wOBA, 1.150 OPS). Granted the sample size is small, but it only serves as confirmation for what Donaldson has done throughout his career. Take advantage of the discounted prices and play him at will today. He is a fantastic play in both cash games and tournaments, and is close to a must play on FanDuel where he is only $3900.
Nolan Arenado FD 4400 DK 5300
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @COL
FD - 15.75 DK - 12.21
Arenado is in the same boat as both Mark Reynolds and DJ Lemahieu. However, he is a MUCH MUCH better player than either of those guys are. In 2015, Arenado sported a .388 wOBA against righties and backed it up with a 37.7% hard contact rate. As previously mentioned a few times, Moscot is a below average pitcher and will struggle big time against the Rockies in Coors Field. Make sure you get some exposure to this offense and Arenado is a great way to do so.
Consider - Matt Carpenter, Kyle Seager
OUTFIELD
Gerardo Parra FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @COL
FD - 12.87 DK - 10.69
What more is there to say? Parra has hit righties well over the last 2 seasons with a .368 wOBA and a 34.2% hard contact rate. As you can tell, we expect these Rockies to go berserk tonight and score a bunch of runs. To add onto Coors Field and the great match up, this Reds bullpen is atrocious. Make sure to get some exposure to this offense one way or another.
Matt Holliday FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.32 DK - 9.43
Jeremy Hazelbaker FD 2400 DK 4500
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.11 DK - 9.42
The Cardinals are another team that we love tonight and that is mostly due to the great match up against Wily Peralta and the superb ballpark that is Miller Park. Both Hazelbaker and Holliday have hit righties extremely well in 2016 with a +3.30 wOBA. Holliday hit a 466 foot home run yesterday and will look to recreate that performance tonight against the below average Wily Peralta. Both of these guys are great options in both cash games and tournaments.
Consider - Aaron Hicks, Hyun-soo Kim, Nelson Cruz, Seth Smith
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- Jake Arrieta: (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
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Where is the guy that thinks DFS is fixed because the top 2 lineups had Jason Castro? That was awesome! I hope he comes back when he is finished checking his phone for bugs.
Anyone ever scroll the leader boards and try and figure out how in the world ” Saahlisud “can guess right so many damn times? I’m only doing one lineup tonight for the 50k grand prize bc days like today the sharks just ruin it with hundreds of entries…but ganondorf, saahlisud, ehafner, oneistheloneliest guaranteed one of these names will be at the top….im only donating 5$ lol
This is one of the differences between doing DFS for a living and doing it as a hobby. The latter is fine, but the gents you mentioned above doing this as their 9-5 (or more) job. Part of that increased edge is multi-entry GPP strategies. They employ this to pick off underowned players along the margins. It’s a high variance approach in that many, many times these lineups will finish out of the money. But when their baseline players hit, along with the contrarian plays (i.e. Castro) then you of course will see them finishing high in the money.
To be clear. It’s luck in the idea that Castro was awesome yesterday, but their strategy isn’t luck based, or rigged or whatever. It’s a game theory piece that allows them to have more lineup variations to increase odds. They are using bankroll to play an edge.
That was ridiculous. Castro is an everyday catcher and has been hitting the ball really well lately. It was just a matter of time before it started producing results. Unfortunately it is those types of ill informed comments and perceptions that will be a problem for DFS.
Those players are putting in an enormous time of research, following the game closely and have a big bankroll using many many lineups
How do you feel about peavy tonight? Birthday magic for him or no?
I DK offered more single entry tourny options. The only one to my knowledge is the $1 one with only a couple thousand entries. If they could throw in some $3 or $5 single entry games, people would play them just to get out of the shark infested waters.
DK has single entry at all price points, you just have to reserve your spot the night before because they fill up quick. They also have 3 entry max tournaments that are mostly avoided by the big players. Just don’t expect a $50k grand prize, lol
Thanks Rick…will start looking earlier.
Weather will be tricky today
Exactly Doug and on FD if they like a stack they will throw in multiple player lineups without knowing if they will be in lineup after lock, thereby eliminating a majority of the field
No worries Anthony. FYI, on DK you can reserve the spot the night before without having to input a lineup. Just be aware that you have to have players in the lineup by lock to be able to adjust lineups after games start.
I listen to the Fantasy Sports Channel on XM Radio and even they admit that DFS is in a volatile bubble right now and they pretty much control their own destiny. It’s unlikely they’re not going to voluntarily limit entries more than they have because they’re making money on the ridiculous amount of entries that the whales submit, many of which have investors to boost their payrolls. Besides, we all know if entries were limited that there are ways around that. DFS has created it’s own flaws, and DK has pretty much put the industry in the limelight with the employee playing with insider knowledge and the now-infamous maxdulury incident in the NBA GPP. DK knew scripts were being used, even though it was in their policy at the time that they could not because they were making big money off of them. Maybe it IS time for some formal regulations to keep the industry going. Its better than the alterative that some states are already seeing. (Drop mic, get down from soapbox.)
yeah I agree there should be more single entry tourneys..let the guys with the bankroll to play 500 entries duke it out and let us little guys (who actually still work a 9-5) duke it out more…I love dfs..I do over 5 hours research daily and I’m a little worried these big name winners are drawing negative attention to the game
Doug…I agree with what you are saying on folks who want to work DFS for a living. Good for them if that is what they want to do. It is hard to believe however, that the above game theory applies to single-entry games and accounts for what happens regularly (especially the examples above).
Don’t get me wrong…this is gambling and luck (made or found) is part of the game. I think you all do a great job on this site and have no expectations that you are supposed to only give me the right picks every day (though it should be noted that it was this site that recommended Gattis yesterday). There is a reason why Vegas is full of bright shiny buildings and people who have lost everything. The difference here is that in Vegas, its you vs. the house. In DFS, it is you vs. other players (the house doesn’t care since it basically wins every time). Everyone wants an edge and unfortunately, FanDuel, DK, etc. allow that to happen. Perception drives reality and if DFS wants to live and continue it needs to find ways to break those beliefs or it will go the way of online poker.
I hear this. Re: strategy, it applies to single entry as well of course, but there you will have even more insane variance because one obviously can’t run a number of different iterations. The same theories apply, just boiled down to one entry rather than many.
Re: DFS and online poker being analogous. They are in the sense that the house makes money regardless of table outcome. Where I have an issue with folks blaming DK and FD for allowing certain practices is that people need not join the contests wherein these practices are prevalent. I get why they do (the prize pools plain and simple) but there are plenty of options on every site if you want to have an edge.
The difference between DFS and poker (and where the operators should probably do some work) is that in poker a pro couldn’t blanket the $1/$2 games say because it wasn’t worth their time to grind at that level. The incentive wasn’t there. In DFS pros can and there’s incentive. I do agree about putting some constraints on that practice, though I also understand why sites don’t do it.
Re: Allowing certain practices. Some practices were going on without the masses knowing it–ie. employees from one site playing another site with knowledge kept from the majority. Illegal? Probably not. Extremely shady and known it would give a black eye to DFS if found out? You betcha. Allowing scripts to be used when they took the initiative to ban them in their own small print–not a good “practice”. What else has/is going on that players don’t know about? I quit playing DK when they started asking for SSN’s JUST TO PLAY. That’s an overreach in an attempt to show the gov’t “Look at us, we’re on the up and up.”, when in reality it is the equivalent of the Quickey Mart clerk asking for your SSN before you buy a lottery ticket, a casino asking for your SSN before you enter, or a racetrack asking for it before you place a bet. How secure is DK’s database with all those SSN’s and what are they going to do about it if/when it’s hacked. So yeah, I don’t play sites where I don’t agree with their “practices”.
No I agree with this. I didn’t mean to be glib or dismissive of things going on behind the scenes that shouldn’t have been. That kind of stuff compromises the integrity of the contests and the sites will probably work from now until the end of DFS to overcome that piece.
Also, re: Gattis. We do our best to predict batting lineups ahead of time and can sometimes get caught in between with picks and what teams actually field. This was case with Gattis. Great play if in lineup. He wasn’t.
just curious as to why you guys rarely recommend Red Sox players? they’re the best hitting team in baseball, yet I don’t see them mentioned here very often
It’s almost always a price thing. The Red Sox are great yes. But they are also priced like they are great which is an issue. Price outstripping value much of the time.
I am really noticing an elevated pay line in DFS this year. Yesterday I scored 180 on FD in my 50/50s and Double Ups and did not cash! That is terribly frustrating. Is the use of bought lineups from pro players doing this? Is anyone else experiencing this?
Coors has a lot to do with this as well. Lines inflated because of robust scoring there. (Assuming you are talking about that early or afternoon slate of course.)
I do agree that cash lines do increase as the information gap decreases.
Hazel Baker is far too expensive and risky given his recent play.
Thanks Doug and team for the new features in optimizer. The saved data feature and the lineup spot is great. Saves me a lot of time .
Oh that’s great to hear! We are very excited and Blake’s been working round the clock behind the scenes to get our lineup tools even more robust.
Doug, tried using the optimizer over the last half hour but get the following error message: Lineup Lab Service Not Available.
I switched to Firefox and the optimizer is working for me now.
Doug how come the system doesn’t like the cleveland Indians today? Too pricey ? Their team total projects to be fairly high. I’m playing the early slate on dk
Likes them okay. Like Houston a bit more on park and overall total. Plus Houston a bit cheaper across board.
I am nervous about rolling out Arrieta with the weather scenario. What do you think the odds of a delay are? I am getting different forecast %’s on different sites.
Kevin Gausman or Mat Latos to go with Nola. GPP all the $ I have left Jesus take the wheel.
What’s the weather situation for the Rockies game? Looks like it could be pretty bad
That plus rain in Chicago has me almost off the entire slate honestly
Glad I stacked the Mariners in the early slate
Same!
Ditto. Why don’t I do this in a full slate? Dang.
Good luck…hear we go
So much for Harper being Nola’s only worry.