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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/22/16
Welcome to another Hump Day edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. Today we have a split slate with seven games in the afternoon and eight in the evening. Both slates have some nice pitching options at the top and mid tier making it an easy choice to pack as much daily fantasy baseball into our Wednesday as possible. Let's dig in!
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PITCHER
Early Slate
Noah Syndergaard FD 10900 DK 13000
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @NYM
FD - 41.65 DK - 23.39
Wednesday afternoon gives us two excellent options at the top of the salary in Syndergaard and Arrieta. Both are at home but Thor edges out the reigning Cy Young winner for a few reasons. First of all, he gets a better matchup as the Royals who rank 15th in team wOBA while the Cardinals(facing Arrieta) rank 2nd. They are priced the same on DraftKings but Syndergaard comes with a $1,200 discount on FanDuel. He is an elite pitcher with a 11.22 K/9 rate and 53% ground ball rate which has helped produce a very low 1.91 ERA. He is safe in all formats.
Evening Slate
Cole Hamels FD 9900 DK 10400
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @TEX
FD - 37.83 DK - 19.83
Hamels leads the way on the night slate in a home matchup vs. the Reds who hold the second worst record in the National League and have an ugly -107 run differential. The Reds sit middle of the pack vs. right handed pitching but are striking out 22.7% of the time. Hamels has won two straight starts, pushing his record to 7-1 on the season with 2.88 ERA. His issues this season have been the high walk rate(3.47 BB/9) and the long ball(20.5% HR/FB rate). If he can command the strike zone and limit the fly balls he will have a great shot to pick up win #8 on Wednesday night.
Michael Fulmer FD 8000 DK 9700
Opponent - SEA (Iwakuma) Park - @DET
FD - 30.26 DK - 15.12
If you are looking to save a few dollars on the late slate to load up some bats Fulmer makes a great choice in GPP's, especially on FanDuel at $8,000. It has been a fantastic start to his career with the Tigers as he has gone 7-2 in 10 starts with an impressive 2.43 ERA and 8.65 K/9 rate. He has three good pitches with a 95 mph fastball, 87 mph slider and 85 mph changeup. As he matures in the major leagues he should find some better command of the strike zone(3.49 BB/9) which will only give him even more upside to go deep into games. He will be tough to trust in cash as the Mariners present a tough matchup ranked 5th in team wOBA vs. right handed pitching.
CATCHER
Early Slate
Russell Martin FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @TOR
FD - 11 DK - 8.42
After an absolutely brutal start to the season, Martin has turned it around in June hitting .279 with an impressive 150 wRC+. He has also brought his K rate down to 22% for the month after a 30%+ rate to open the first two months. He has hit lefties a little better for his career and gets a ton of opportunities as he was moved up to the five hole in the Jays order. After losing game one to the D Backs last night look for the Jays bats to wake up on Wednesday afternoon. Martin is a safe option in any format today.
Evening Slate
Victor Martinez FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - SEA (Iwakuma) Park - @DET
FD - 10.44 DK - 8.04
Martinez should be back in the lineup on Wednesday evening after receiving a maintenance day off on Tuesday. After a bit of a disappointing year in 2015 he has rebounded this season and is slashing .326/.375/.531 with a terrific 142 wRC+. He is a switch hitter that hits well from both sides of the plate(.320 avg vs. RH and .344 avg vs. LH) but most of the power comes from the left side of the plate where he has hit eight of his 12 home runs and recorded 29 of his 38 runs batted in. He is listed as a catcher on FanDuel and a first basemen on DraftKings.
FIRST BASE
Early Slate
Anthony Rizzo FD 4100 DK 5400
Opponent - STL (Wacha) Park - @CHC
FD - 14.11 DK - 10.85
The early slate is loaded with power hitting first basemen making it a must to pay up on Wednesday. The projection system is favoring Rizzo over other elite options in Encarnacion and Goldschmidt on FanDuel with the three very close in PTS/$ projection on DraftKings. While I don't think you can go wrong with either of them, Rizzo may come with the most upside facing Michael Wacha who has struggled to a 0-6 record and 5.40 ERA since the start of May. He struggles with control(3.33 BB/9) and is giving up 37% hard hit contact to left handed batters.
Evening Slate
Hanley Ramirez FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.54 DK - 9.08
Ramirez makes a terrific value play at first base on Wednesday evening. He is the 13th ranked in salary on DraftKings and 11th on FanDuel. While I wouldn't trust him in cash games as he has struggled in June with an average below the Mendosa Line but he will allow you to load up at other positions while still giving you big upside. It isn't the greatest matchup vs. Quintana but Ramirez has crushed left handed pitching for a .438 wOBA and 175 wRC+. Quintana has given up all five of his home runs against this season to right handed hitters. Take a shot with Han Ram.
SECOND BASE
Early Slate
Starlin Castro FD 3000 DK 2400
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.23 DK - 7.34
If you are going to be fitting in a top pitcher and power hitter this afternoon, you are going to need a punt play or two. The price is a little high for me on FanDuel but Castro is an excellent value with a 3+ PTS/$ projection on DraftKings today. He has hit all over the order from third to ninth but has been steadily sitting in the five and six hole. He will face Jon Gray who has been up and down this season showing signs of dominance at times(high 9.92 K/9 rate) but also has shown the ability to blow up as well giving up at least one home run in each of his last five starts. This pick isn't about what Castro can provide but more about what he can give you access to in other slot sin your lineup.
Evening Slate
Brian Dozier FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.27 DK - 8.87
Dozier is on fire right now and has pushed his hit streak to four games after a third straight multi hit game last night. He is now hitting over .324 in June with a 165 wRC+. He is a very strong right handed hitter when facing left handed pitching as he is hitting with a .410 wOBA(115 points higher than against RH) and 160 wRC+ vs. southpaws. He will face Adam Morgan of the Phillies who has been dreadful lately with a 7.33 ERA since May 27th while giving up 10 home runs in those five starts for a 25% HR/FB rate. This is a great spot to fit the Twins right handed power into a stack whether you are playing cash games or tournaments.
SHORTSTOP
Early Slate
Addison Russell FD 2900 DK 3200
Opponent - STL (Wacha) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.63 DK - 7.59
Like I mentioned with Castro at second base, to get a top pitcher and power hitter in your lineup today you are going to need some punt value. He hits 7th in the Cubs lineup which isn't ideal but the price is right and he is actually a much better hitter vs. right handed pitching with a .319 wOBA vs. a .255 wOBA against southpaws. He is coming off a three hit night and has two home runs in the last week.
Evening Slate
Xander Bogaerts FD 3700 DK 5300
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.72 DK - 9.4
The Red Sox lead the league in runs scored with a whopping 391 which is close to 30 clear of the next best team. The matchup isn't the best against Quintana but if you are going to target one bat make it Bogaerts who is becoming one of the top shortstop in the league. He has improved across the board after a breakout 2015 season. He is hitting .347 overall which will most likely normalize as he has a high .392 BABIP. The big jump this year has been in the power category. He has already hit seven home runs this season after recording just seven all of last season. You especially want to play Bogaerts when facing a lefty as he has a .457 wOBA and 189 wRC+ vs. southpaws with only four strikeouts in 40 plate appearances.
THIRD BASE
Early Slate
Josh Donaldson FD 4500 DK 5500
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.48 DK - 11.05
The 2015 American League MVP is picking up where he left off in the power department with 17 home runs and a 152 wRC+ so far this season. He is actually hitting the ball harder than last season with a 41% hard hit contact rate(up close to 5% from last season) and continues to rake against left handed pitching. He gets a nice matchup vs. Robbie Ray who has been up and down this season and has struggled against teams with right handed heavy lineups as he is giving up a .371 wOBA and nine of his 10 home runs against to righties. The Jays are a team who can crush southpaws and Donaldson is an elite option worth paying for today.
Evening Slate
Pedro Alvarez FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - SD (Johnson) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.73
Alvarez is a high upside when he faces right handed pitching as he is hitting with an average close to 130 points higher with a righty on the mound. Alvarez and the Orioles will get an elite matchup vs. the weakest arm on the mound Wednesday. Erik Johnson came over in the James Shields trade and has been just as bad as he was with the White Sox. In two starts with the Padres he has given up 10 earned runs(5 HR) in 10.2 innings pitched while only striking out five and walking four batters. Fire up "El Toro" tonight.
OUTFIELD
Early Slate
Peter O'Brien FD 2500 DK 2900
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TOR
FD - 6.09 DK - 4.65
It has been an impressive start to the season for young Peter O'Brien as he has recorded four home runs in his first 10 games. He is nowhere near safe in cash games with a 43% K/9 rate and 0% walk rate but get him in some GPP lineups with that power upside. He has also been much better against left handed pitching with a .273 average while he is hitting just .053 average against right handed pitching. He is a punt play that comes with upside in a favorable matchup that allows you to spend up at pitcher and other power positions.
Consider: Jason Heyward and Mike Trout (FD)
Evening Slate
Shin-Soo Choo FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.98 DK - 10.11
Nomar Mazara FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.02 DK - 7.77
The Rangers let us down last night in a great spot at price points that seemed a little low. I am going back to the well on Wednesday as they will face another struggling pitcher in Dan Straily. He is coming off a start where he gave up seven hits and six earned runs to the Braves and has a 4.88 ERA in his last five starts dating back to May 27th. The biggest issue has been the control(3.45 BB/9 rate) combined with a very low GB rate of 29%. Straily relies on a 89 mph fastball over 50% of the time and if he isn't locating it can get touched up in a hurry. The Rangers outfielders have seen another price drop and combine that with burning 40-50% of people last night and you have a potential low owned OF combo with upside tonight.
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image sources
- Noah Syndergaard: By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA (Noah Syndergaard) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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Last night the dude that won the DK MLB $165K MOONSHOT, took first and second place, for $20,000 , with an obscure, NO owned, Philly, Minny stacks lineup. Vegas didn’t post an O/U: 24 runs. Else I woulda been all over that. Vegas let me down again. I want to know where the dude got his inside information. I did have Tommy Joseph in a few lineups though.
Right. This is the exact strategy for top end GPP finishes. Stacking obscure/ contrarian teams for maximum separation. It’s game theory and difficult to accomplish but it’s not an accident per se.
I played Philly quite a bit and still ended up with squat. Even got my w’ s with Bettis. Didn’t think I should do opposite with every stack they suggested or play a hurt Posey and have vary end up not playing. Grrrr….
Sometimes I get so frustrated over the bs baseball! Worst night in fantasy for a long time!
@fat The “sharks” play multiple lineups and they choose stacks in games that they feel will be low owned as picking guys as low owned as possible is the secret to winning and production of course. .
Great call on alveraz last night guys! Tournaments not so good for me. Jumped on some high winner take all and ended up saving my night! Thanks again!
Yeah Alvarez was the key. Kicking myself because I limited BAL exposure based on the weather. It cost
Blindly attacking Reds pitching = blindly playing Coors. Sure, if you play them every time you’ll hit sometimes but it’s more fun going against the grain and the pay is good.
Seems like a bit of an overstatement in that it isn’t blindly playing these guys. The Rangers have projected out ridiculously high in both our system and in Vegas for a reason. The Reds pitching is weaker, the ballpark is great and the the Texas prices are trending lower. Makes total sense really.
Hey Doug, please check your email reference subscription. Thanks.
Pitcher really looks ugly tonight.. What about Trevor Bauer? Says are bottom 5 in runs, top 5 in K’s and Bauer has 5 straight quality starts
Rays** stupid autocorrect
I had joseph,Herrera and rupp to make salary space in half my lineups to fit hernandez and some elite bats I thought I needed..baseball is funny..well not really..the elite bats did nothing but the Phillips bats I plugged in for cap space did well..my pitching choices on both sites killed me.BTW I know Herrera didn’t kill it but 2 stolen bases and a decent night
Kluber and Alvarez were great, I expected a lot more from my other players ie Murphy and Choo
correction..I played franco,Herrera and joseph
Great call on Choo last night…..
Ha. He was an overwhelming chalk play for a reason so I’m not too worried about the process there. Will happily roster him again today.
I was talking about this on the podcast today, but it’s so funny about baseball. In his first AB Choo missed a double by about two inches (maybe less) down the RF line. Went on the K and is a perfect example of why variance in MLB DFS is so high.
But again, Choo at these prices in advantageous matchups hitting leadoff is a clear play. No regrets there
Doug, ignore the haters. Once they play baseball awhile they will realize that it’s so damn volatile that you can NEVER count on anything. These guys in here looking for the easy fix aren’t going to find it. I started getting kind of serious in baseball last year and it took til August to become profitable. Thank you Jesse Chavez.
Anyway, thanks for all the FREE work you do. Keep it up!
Ha it’s all good. I don’t sweat it when I know the process is correct. I just try to make the distinction there between bad process and bad results. The latter is tough of course, but doesn’t dissuade me from the former.
No Cespedes in optimizer
Got to trust the process and the crystal ball.
Lol at some people. If you don’t want help don’t look at this site. Last night the big bats stunk but that’s baseball some days. Just look to bounce back and know bankroll management.
Vito, Agree 100%
I came out a good bit ahead yesterday because of Alvarez who I probably would not have picked without this site. Thanks!
Everyone complaining, this is a FREE site!! Makes no sense to complain about FREE help. Sometimes it hits, sometimes it doesn’t. They did give us Alvarez and Cespedes yesterday among others! Fernandez was great but bullpen blew the win. Kluber killed. If you’re upsetwith FREE advice then PAY for the optimizer!! Been killing cash games ALL DAY, EVERY DAY for like 2 weeks straight!!! Thank you DFSR!! I now have about $1000 carefree to lose at the casino next week now!!
Let me try this again how do i get the optimizer?
Thanks to the optimizer, I turned $1 into a $33 ticket into $50 last night. Thanks DFSR team.
Optimizer put up 128.6 DK pts last night. Nothing wrong with that. Keep up the good work.
Yalll sell T-shirts or hats?
James, I’m pretty sure if you click the big red banner “start free trial now” in this article above it will get you started.
You can try it free for 3 days and do nothing. Or, go ahead and sign up.
I’ve been also killing it with these articles and podcasts. I’m cashing in at least a third of my cash games and have also had some top 50 finishes in gpps in the last 2 1/2 weeks since I’ve started. I’ve went to only playing 1 gpp and a ton of cash games and I’m loving it. Keep up the awesome work guys!
Patrick, same here!!! A few GPPs per day and a ton of 50/50s. I am hitting at about an 80% on my 50/50s!!! Optimizer is making me money left and right, slate after slate, day after day!!
That’s awesome bro! I was hitting that high on 50/50’s but I had a few rough days in a row. That’s dfb for you.
Ok so is,it saying that ubaldo Jimenez is the best pick for pitcher and aj Ellis for catcher is that the optimizer lineup for draftkings it shows a list of players for their positions is the top 1 the pick for the night thanks
James. To be clear, Ubaldo is there because of his price and that’s about it. With the lack of clear cut pitching options on the later slate of games, Ubaldo at $4700 with the money line in his favor shows up. But know that he’s like the 7th SP on that slate in terms of raw points. It’s just that his price tag is so low.
James, I’m not certain what you are seeing or looking at but both of those guys are way down the list of best plays for tonight. Maybe if you sort by “PTS” in the list. That is the site’s projected points for a particular player that day. I’m not sure if the trial has the calculate button. I simply pick what games to include, hit calculate, and the optimizer spits out the best projected team for that slate.
fulmer or urias? both seem to be on a short leash, and it seems urias has a higher ceiling
Yes, Ubaldo was the SP2 for the all day optimal DK lineup. I wasn’t comfortable with that so I excluded him and the optimizer gave me Adam Conley instead for SP2. So far, so good.
@Cody Sparks
Are you going with the optimal lineup including all the games for your 50/50’s or are you making adjustments? (e.g. excluding games, players, etc)
I will rarely exclude games or players but have done so on occasion. Usually take top lineup and get in around ten 50/50s. It backfires on occasion. Like these early games. Basically EVERY pitcher besides Sabathia was better than Syndergaard today!!! That hurts when you have him on every team.
luckily the 50/50’s I entered for the all day slate didn’t fill to capacity in time so the contests were cancelled (only play the 100 person contests). Probably saved me a few bucks as that lineup doesn’t look to be performing so far. I do have the optimal lineup entered into some 50/50’s for the evening slate. Vast majority of nights I will win them all or lose them all using the optimal lineup. Seems to cash around 60% of the time.
Ok thank guys
Choo choo or Kim? Please?
Joshua, I play mostly in the 20 person 50/50. Same payout. Have to beat less people to cash. Usually lower point totals get in the money that wouldn’t be in the money in a 100 person league
Thanks for the feedback Cody…I would like to mimic your success.
I’ started playing optimizer’ first lineup in double ups on FD. Failed to cash this morning. Try again tonight.
Joshua, my all day games are still looking good depending on tonight’s games. It’s the 1pm slate that stung so far today! Ouch!
The one day I brag and brag on the optimizer (and get the balls to get in a $25 50/50, is the day it appears to be one of those awful days in DFS!! Hoping this is a reverse jimx for the rest of the day! Lol
And now MIN in a delay!! Any chance they postpone???? Goodness I hope not!!!
@Cody…so youre saying that youre finding success by entering a low number of enteries in 50/50? That the scoring is lower among the people entering those games
Texas bats….please show up.
Kirk, bad day on the optimizer today. It happens. Don’t lose faith. I’ve gone from $50 to over $800 these last 2 weeks.
Michael, yes. I play in the 20 person 50/50s. In my experience you would usually need 15 or more points to cash in the 100 person leagues. If the cash line is sitting at 125 it seems to be around 135 in the 100 person league. Also luck of the draw. I’ve finished 1st in some 50/50s that didn’t even cash in others on the same slate.
Example in 7pm games. Cash line sitting at 85 in one league. 108 in another. All depends on the league you happen to get into.
Really really really need that MIN game to play tonight. Weather is supposed to be clearing.
What happened to Fulmer
Doug, just want to notify all the followers of this site… The podcast mentioned rostering Desmond. I’m sure at that time not knowing he wouldn’t start. He did, however, pinch hit and went yard! These guys are crazy good folks!! Off day today in many aspects but definitely great overall!!
So sick of these bullpens!!! If Texas blows the win for Hamels I’m going to think this is as rigged as the NBA!! Every night a pitcher pitches a great game only to have the bullpen give up 5 runs in the 8th and 9th!!! Ugh!!!!
Choo Choo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!