Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 7/1/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some plays not covered in today's main picks article. Enjoy!

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Pitching Targets

We talked about Garcia and Eovaldi in the main picks article - so here are a few extra guys to consider.

Michael Fulmer FD 8400 DK 10900
Opponent - TB (Smyly) Park - @TB
FD - 32.22 DK - 21.47
We talked about Fulmer somewhat extensively on today's podcast (when I wrongly called him a rule 5 pick and forgot he was a part of the Cespedes trade - woops), and the more I look at this thing, the more I feel like he might wind up as the chalk FanDuel play of the day. I'll maintain that his DK price is absurd, but on FanDuel he's more than reasonable. Fulmer has posted nearly a K per inning this season, and while the ERA is way more the result of running hot than his true talent level, the guy can actually pitch.

And then there's the match-up. The Rays have struck out at the 2nd highest rate in the majors against right handed pitchers this season, and have posted the 6th worst wOBA against them. Fulmer's held back a little bit by a tough opposing pitcher in Smyly, but given the dearth of options today, he looks like a very strong one.

Sonny Gray FD 8300 DK 6300
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @OAK
FD - 28.97 DK - 19.48
If Fulmer is the FD play of the day that we didn't mention in the other article, Gray is his DraftKings brother of a different mother. And I mean, it's a significantly different mother, here. The elephant in the room is the Pirates - they're frankly not a good match-up for right handers, posting the 8th highest wOBA and striking out at a below average rate against them this season.
Gray, meanwhile, has finally had to pay back to good-luck Gods, as the considerable ground-balls he generates have been finding more gaps than gloves this season.

Still, there's a lot to like about Gray here. First of all, the A's are heavy favorites (-153) thanks to the Pirates' willingness to continue to pitch Jeff Locke. Next, he's just so damn cheap on DraftKings. If it weren't for Eovaldi being in such a great position (and being better than Gray this season), Gray would be in every lineup our lineup optimizer generates. It's also tough to play both Gray and Eovaldi since then you sort of can't even spend the rest of your money. I suspect Eovaldi will be a huge start here, so Gray represents similar upside and the ability to get a little separation as well.

A smattering of guys with huge issues
Once we get away from the Fulmer/Garcia/Eovaldi/Gray group, we start to have some pretty big problems today. Obviously guys like DeGrom, Cueto, or Hammel could have big days today. But they've all got serious warts as well. Cueto's price (on DK in particular) is just absurd considering the terrible park and bad match-up with Arizona. DeGrom and Hammel are facing each other - putting each in a worse spot for a win than usual - and DeGrom is facing one of the league's best offenses. Hammel has a better match-up with the banged up Mets, but he's facing DeGrom, and his low ERA and high win total have inflated his price higher than his 70:27 K:BB ratio in 87 innings this season. I'm going cheap today - and suggest you do, too.

Note - Make sure to comment below if you have any questions on on the pitcher's or if you want to just discuss pitching as a whole on the day, thanks for the read!

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