Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/5/16


Welcome to Tuesday baseball! We have a 14 game main slate with 1 early game that is not included. There are some pitchers in good spots as well as some offenses in great situations. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get right into the top plays at each position!

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Madison BumgarnerMadison Bumgarner FD 11400 DK 10700
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @SF
FD - 42.51 DK - 27.89

Starting us off at the pitcher position, we are going to take a look at Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner and the Giants will be taking on a Rockies team that struggles mightily on the road, especially against lefties. Dating back to opening day, the Rockies have hit lefties to the tune of a .299 wOBA that is backed up by high strikeout rates and low walk rates. With those stats including Coors Field, you should be able to tell just how bad this is going to be in AT&T Park, Bumgarner on the other hand, has been exceptional against both righties and lefties this season as evident by his .247 combined wOBA that is backed up by a 27.5% hard contact rate and 18% line drive rate. Bumgarner is going to be the top option in both cash games and tournaments.

Kenta MaedaKenta Maeda FD 8600 DK 8800
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @LAD
FD - 34.41 DK - 21.65

If you are looking to pay down a bit in cash games for some consistency, look no further than Kenta Maeda. Maeda has scored over 40 FanDuel points in 5 of his last 6 starts and there is no reason to expect any different here. While the Orioles are certainly a very powerful offense, they also strikeout a ton and are very suppressed in pitcher friendly Dodgers Stadium. Maeda has sported a .279 wOBA at home this year that is backed up by good batted ball peripherals and a SIERA under 3.50. Maeda does lack upside, however, as he has yet to surpass 55 FanDuel points. Maeda is one of the best cash game plays on the board.

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Welington CastilloWelington Castillo FD 2700 DK 4400
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.38 DK - 7.99

Welington Castillo and the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to be in another good spot tonight against the San Diego Padres and Christian Friedrich. Friedrich is a left handed soft tosser who has struggled against righties, although his stats are a bit inflated by Petco Park. Castillo on the other hand, has been a lefty masher over the past few years with a .362 wOBA that is supported by every peripheral you can think of. With this game being played in one of the absolute best hitter parks, Castillo makes for a great play in all formats.

Russell MartinRussell Martin FD 2400 DK 3200
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.53 DK - 8.06

While Castillo is going to be the guy I look to in almost every lineup, it may be good to pivot in a tournament or two. Russell Martin and the Blue Jays have been swinging the bat well of late and will look to keep it going tonight against Chris Young. While young limited the Cardinals last time out, he got extremely lucky with some warning track flyballs and some line drive outs. The Blue Jays will likely put some in the Rogers Centre seats and at least 1 of those could come off of the bat of Martin or Thole. Yes, I know Thole catches for Dickey most of the time. He is in play as well, though he definitely lacks the upside. Take a good look at Castillo.



Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD 4100 DK 5000
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.64 DK - 10.63

Paul Goldschmidt is in the same boat as Castillo here, but he is just on a completely different level. Dating back to 2014, Goldschmidt has hit lefties insanely well with a .418 wOBA that is backed by a ludicrous 41% hard contact rate and a 26% line drive rate. As I mentioned, Friedrich is a bad left hander and he has had trouble locating his fastball this season. If he misses up or in to Goldy, you can say goodbye to that baseball. Though first base has a ton of great options, Goldschmidt is far and away my top option in all formats. Make sure you get some exposure to this Diamondbacks offense.

Adrian GonzalezAdrian Gonzalez FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.3 DK - 7.83

A-Gon has definitely had a rough year, though his peripherals suggest he will turn it around very soon. He and the Dodgers will be facing off with a very average pitcher today, Chris Tillman. While Tillman isn't bad, he isn't good either. Dating back to 2015, he has given up a .336 wOBA to lefties and his peripherals suggest he has been getting lucky as of late. The Dodgers lefties are all in play and Gonzalez leads that charge. While he is more of a cash game play for me, I couldn't blame you if you wanted to get some exposure in a tournament or two.

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Daniel MurphyDaniel Murphy FD 3600 DK 0
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.28 DK - 9.02

Daniel Murphy has been arguably the best hitter in baseball this season as evident by his 14 homers, 22 doubles and .347 batting average. While I am sure Harper has something to say about that, it has certainly been close. They will take on a lackluster right hander today in Zach Davies. Davies has been bad against lefties in 2016 with a .358 wOBA that is backed up by a 4.70 xFIP and a 33% hard contact rate. While I am not a big fan of a Nationals stack, I love the idea of a 1 off or a combo of Murphy and Harper. We will get to him in a bit, be patient.

Jean SeguraJean Segura FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.39 DK - 8.17

Here is our 3rd and final Diamondbacks bat of the article, Jean Segura. Segura has hit lefties extremely well this season with a .350 wOBA and a very high 25% line drive rate. While there is not too much more to say about Friedrich, just know that he is going to struggle moving from a pitcher friendly ballpark to one of the best in the league for pitchers. Segura is an excellent play in all formats if you are able to afford him. That being said, I would definitely prefer Murphy between the two, unless you are running out a D-Backs stack.



Troy TulowitzkiTroy Tulowitzki FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.01 DK - 7.62

Tulowitzki has returned from the DL on fire with 4 home runs in his last 10 games. He will take on the previously mentioned Chris Young, a right handed "veteran" that struggled getting anyone out, let alone a power righty in a hitters ballpark. While Tulowitzki is a much better hitter against lefties, he is better than average against righties as evident by the .362 wOBA he has possessed over the previous 2 seasons. Tulo makes for a strong play in all formats, on both sites.



Danny ValenciaDanny Valencia FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.51 DK - 8.88

You can expect Valencia to be mentioned here anytime the Athletics are taking on an average or below average lest handed pitcher. That is exactly what is happening tonight as the Athletics are taking on Tommy Milone. Milone is a southpaw that has struggled mightily against right handers this season as evidenced by his .386 wOBA allowed that is backed up by very bad batted ball peripherals. Valencia on the other hand, has destroyed lefties this season with a .451 wOBA and while that may not be sustainable, he is undoubtedly dominant against southpaws.

Brett WallaceBrett Wallace FD 2200 DK 3000
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.76 DK - 7.54

If you are looking to pay down and get some power upside, you can take a look at Brett Wallace. If he is in the lineup, Wallace makes for a great tournament play. With a high ISO and wOBA against righties, there is a decent chance he could go yard in Chase Field. Zack Godley is a very average right hander as evident by his .342 wOBA against lefties that is securely backed up by peripherals. While I would steer clear in cash games, Wallace makes for a very interesting tournament play. Make sure he is in the lineup before employing him.



Bryce HarperBryce Harper FD 3800 DK 0
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @WSH
FD - 14.89 DK - 11.45

I promised we would get to Harper, and here we are. As I mentioned when touching on Murphy, Davies has been pitiful against lefties and has struggled immensely with the long ball. While this stadium isn't necessarily conducive to home runs, Harper has no problem hitting home runs in any ballpark. With a .396 career wOBA against righties, it is rather obvious that Harper is as elite as they come against right handers. He is going to be my top option in all formats, on both sites. Harper is the beating heart to this offense and is someone you will want exposure to.

Yoenis CespedesYoenis Cespedes FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.85

Cespedes is just too easy of a play today. Wei-Yin Chen is known for his home run issues, especially against righties. In 2015, Chen gave up the absolute most home runs in the league and is on pace to do it again as he has already given up 15 home runs to righties in only 77 innings. Cespedes is the prefect guy to do damage against Chen as he has insane power against lefties and hits soft tossers well. While this isn't the greatest ballpark for home runs, we all know Cespedes can hit the ball out anywhere.

Michael SaundersMichael Saunders FD 3500 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.35

Here is our 3rd and final Blue Jays bat, Michael Saunders. Saunders has been one of the best hitters in the majors this year with 15 home runs, 23 doubles and 2 triples. I can't say I saw that coming in the slightest. He will take on Chris Young today, who is going to have a very small chance of getting him out. Since opening day, Young has given up a ridiculous .527 wOBA to lefties that is somehow supported by a 55% hard contact rate. You are going to want exposure to this offense and Saunders is a great way to do that.

So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.



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11 Visitor Comments

  1. Puig is a perfect example of these loathed cold batters you and Austyn talked about. Put him in all line ups and hit brought out his broomstick.

  2. thanks again for all the advice here..I’m about broke and struggling bad lately.hopefully something will give

  3. Surprised there is no Rangers batters here since they own David Price. Think a Texas stack will be in order…:)

    • For a cash game-centered article, it would be nuts to roster Rangers’ bats against a top tier arm like Price, small sample BVP numbers aside.

  4. The Email link was off today. It took me to yesterday’s picks. DFSR is still awesome! Them Birds in Baltimore are going to chase Maeda out of the game before the 5th inning! They’re just itching to explode!

  5. Yesterday, someone was feeling a little curt, and replied ” what do people expect from a free article “.
    You tell us, although I appreciate your work, because your guesses are usually better than ours, what we expect is for the advice to pan out so that we all can get what we all want. Which is for us to buy a product that will actually help us win more, and for you to get paid. These picks are getting old and tired. As we see now, you should have included Donaldson.

  6. Come on give the DFSR guys some slack! They included 3 Toronto players and pretty much said they would be productive. Which they was. Donaldson had a good night. Ok but he is over priced, you can get the same value for less. But it sounds like you already know all that? These free picks have came thru for me many times even tho they are “educated” guesses.

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