fbpx

Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

07/07/2016
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/7/16

 

Welcome to Thursday baseball!!! We have an 11 game slate with difficult pitching options and a few offenses in spectacular spots. Make sure to check out our other articles as well as they will touch on some tournament stacks, pitching options and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!

Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with MLB Optimal Lineups, Projections and Player Cards. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL as well! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!

 

PITCHER

Adam WainwrightAdam Wainwright FD 8700 DK 7000
Opponent - PIT (Glasnow) Park - @STL
FD - 33.3 DK - 21.99

If you are looking to play the early slate, Wainwright almost has to be your guy, especially in cash games. Although the match up isn't great and this isn't the Waino we all know and love, it is still a much better situation than anyone else on the early slate. While it is true that Wainwright has struggled, he has still obtained over 30 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 10 starts. This Pirates team has struggled a bit against righties in 2016 with a .320 wOBA that is inflated by a high BABIP and an even higher HR/FB rate. With the Cardinals at -152 right now, you can look for the Cards to win this game pretty easily. Wainwright is the top option on the early slate and it is not close. In tournaments, find a way to be different with your bats.

Jason HammelJason Hammel FD 8500 DK 7400
Opponent - ATL (Harrell) Park - @CHC
FD - 36.86 DK - 23.16

This may be the single-handed worst pitching slate of the year and it is going to be pretty miserable taking confidence in a guy tonight. That being said, I think Hammel is going to be the guy I end up leaning on. While this match up doesn't provide a ton of upside, we don't really need it tonight. We just need a guy that is going to go out and have a quality start and grab a win. Hammel looks to be in a good spot to do that as the cubs are heavily favored. Hammel has been great against righties this year and has struggled a bit against lefties. Therefore, if he can get around Freddie Freeman, he will likely be in for a tremendous start. While I can say he is my favorite I will definitely add "proceed with caution" in cash games tonight. If you are looking for some tournament specific option, take a look at the pitcher article.

DFSR 705x90

CATCHER

Willson ContrerasWillson Contreras FD 2800 DK 4300
Opponent - ATL (Harrell) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.85 DK - 8.56

The Cubs are going to be the top offense outside of the Phillies and Rockies, and rightfully so as those guys will be playing in Coors Field. That being said, the Cubs are in a tremendous spot here against Lucas Harrell. While Harrell had a good start against the Marlins, his peripherals were the same. The same peripherals that have given up a .341 wOBA to both righties and lefties over the course of his career. Contreras had immediately joined the majors and proven himself with 5 home runs and 4 doubles in only 60 at-bats. Contreras is going to be our top option at catcher, with Hundley following very close behind.

Nick HundleyNick Hundley FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @COL
FD - 10.26 DK - 8.14

Along with the Cubs and Phillies, the Rockies are the other top offense, and they might just be the top of them all. The Rockies are facing off with Adam Morgan, a left handed pitcher that is absolutely atrocious against both lefties and righties dating back to his debut. Against righties, he has given up a .384 wOBA in 2016 that is backed up by an insane 39.6% hard contact rate and a 16.7% hard contact rate. When you take those numbers into Coors Field, good luck Adam. Hundley makes for a great play in all formats, and is a lot cheaper than he should be on both sites.

 

FIRST BASE

Anthony RizzoAnthony Rizzo FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - ATL (Harrell) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.97 DK - 10.74

As I just mentioned when talking about Contreras, the Cubs are in an excellent spot to produce here against Lucas Harrell and the bad Braves bullpen. Rizzo has been one of the best hitters in baseball against right handers this year with a .436 wOBA that is backed up by a 38% hard contact rate and a 43.7% pull rate. Harrell is going to have some real trouble with this offense and Rizzo should be right in the middle of it all. Rizzo is going to be my top option in all formats, on both sites.

Ryan HowardRyan Howard FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.21

Trust me, I am not excited about rostering Ryan However. That being said, we definitely have to put him into consideration when he is in Coors Field. While he is nowhere near the player he used to be, he is still a guy that can hit righties for power as evident by the 10 home runs this year against righties. In Coors Field, he would probably have about 20 and all he will need to do is get a popup and it will land in the seats, especially if it stays humid like it is now in Denver. While I can't say I am enthused, I will be rostering a lot of Ryan Howard.

dfsr lineup tool banner

 

SECOND BASE

Jason KipnisJason Kipnis FD 2900 DK 4900
Opponent - NYY (Nova) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.71

Jason Kipnis is one of my favorite second baseman to roster, especially against righties where he has held a .353 wOBA and a 37.2% hard contact rate. He will be facing off with a right hander tonight in Ivan Nova. Nova, has been very average this season as a whole, but has had some troubles against lefties. In 30.1 innings, Nova has given up a .357 wOBA with a supporting xFIP of 4.53. Kipnis gives you a combo of speed and power at a position that lacks both.

Rougned OdorRougned Odor FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.58 DK - 9.36

Speaking of power and speed, Rougned Odor certainly has it. With 7 stolen bases and 16 home runs, there is always potential for a jack and a bag when he steps up to the plate. The Rangers will be taking on Tyler Duffey, a right handed soft tosser that has given up a 35.3% hard contact rate and a 4.27 SIERA on the road. While Odor is not as good of a play as Kipnis, he definitely offers upside at a position that lacks it. To be clear, Odor will be a contrarian tournament play as Kipnis will be an anchor in my cash games.

 

SHORTSTOP

Trevor StoryTrevor Story FD 3200 DK 5100
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @COL
FD - 13.15 DK - 10.65

Story is finally back into the Rockies lineup and is still way too cheap, especially on FanDuel. Story is the front runner for rookie of the year with 19 home runs and a total of 41 extra base hits. While Story has been hitting lower in the lineup, he still certainly has the upside to hit a home run. The baseball doesn't care what lineup spot the bat is in that is hitting it. Story is going to be my far and away top option in both cash games and tournaments.

Javier BaezJavier Baez FD 2600 DK 4400
Opponent - ATL (Harrell) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.92 DK - 7.99

Here is our 3rd of 4 Cubbies bats and this is one you can target if you are looking to get some cheaper (FanDuel) exposure to the offense. While we have thoroughly touched on Harrell, we can definitely take a look at Baez against righties. Dating back to his debut in 2014, Baez has hit to the tune of a .319 wOBA that is backed up by very good batted ball peripherals and a high batted ball velocity. While he isn't on the same level as the 3 other guys, he definitely has home runs and stolen base upside.

 

THIRD BASE

Nolan ArenadoNolan Arenado FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @COL
FD - 16.08 DK - 12.41

Arenado is the top option on this slate and I am going to do whatever I can to get him into nearly every single lineup of mine. Arenado has mashed left handers this seasons with a .403 wOBA and a .477 wOBA against lefties at home. WOWOWOW. While we have already touched on Adam Morgan, I am just going to reiterate how bad he is. In 2016, he has been one of the absolute worst pitchers in the league and there is no chance he makes it 5 innings in this game. Arenado is going to hit a home run tonight and as I said, I am going to try my best to get him in every single lineup, across all sites.

Kris BryantKris Bryant FD 3700 DK 5600
Opponent - ATL (Harrell) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.59 DK - 10.52

Here is our last Cubs bat and he is going to be right on the same level as a guy like Anthony Rizzo. As a Cubs fan, Bryant has been pretty special to watch. Against righties, however, he has been special. Thus far in 2016, Bryant has held a .388 wOBA against righties that is backed up by a 40% hard contact rate and a 22.7% HR/FB rate. With Bryant taking on a guy that throws a ton of change ups and fastballs, I think its fair to say he is going to get some great pitches to hit, especially if there are some ducks on the pond.

 

OUTFIELD

Nelson CruzNelson Cruz FD 3100 DK 4700
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 11.33 DK - 8.56

Nelson Cruz against a lefty, sign me up. While Danny Duffy isn't horrible, he has had some troubles against righties. Dating back to 2014, Duffy has given up a .342 wOBA that is backed up by his peripherals and batted ball stats. Cruz on the other hand, has held a wOBA over .400 in 3 of his last 4 seasons against left handers. While this ballpark is far from ideal, Cruz obviously has the power to get it out of any MLB ballpark. Feel free to roster Cruz in both tournaments and cash games, especially on FanDuel where he is a rediculous $3100.

Ryan RaburnRyan Raburn FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @COL
FD - 13.49 DK - 10.35

Raburn is going to be our 4th and final Rockies bat, and he is a guy who hits left handers much better than he does righties. Dating back to 2013, Raburn has hit lefties to the tune of a .362 wOBA that is backed up by a 34.2% hard contact rate and very strong batted ball peripherals. While the pinch hitting chance does scare me a bit, I think it is well worth the risk, especially on FD and DK where he is very cheap, compared to other Rockies bats.

Odubel HerreraOdubel Herrera FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 10.09 DK - 8.52
Cody AscheCody Asche FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 10.05 DK - 8.02

While I will have exposure to both of these guys, I think Odubel is more of a cash game play for me, though I will have exposure to both in cash. Both Odubel and Asche have a +.350 wOBA against righties and will look to take advantage of Chad Bettis tonight. Bettis has been bad at home this season with a .362 wOBA against lefties. While the prices surely make it tough, you need to make sure you have a lot of exposure to Coors Field in your cash games and tournaments. Feel free to deploy these guys in either.

So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!

GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY MLB!

And Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!

image sources

  • Nolan Arenado: By Keith Allison (Flickr: Nolan Arenado) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Post a Reply

FREE EBOOK

SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!
DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.

DOWNLOAD YOUR EBOOK NOW

Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

Your eBooks are on their way!