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Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC on Fox 20 - 7/23/16
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We're back at it on Saturday night for a free card on Fox as Valentina Shevchenko takes on former bantamweight champion Holly Holm in the main event. This is an interesting DFS card as there isn't a ton of finish potential, which means bonus points for stoppages will be at a premium. I'll be keying in on the the two heavyweight bouts as they should be even more important than usual to build a successful lineup - especially in GPP.
Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?
VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)
Francis Ngannou ($11,500)
Vegas Line: -650
Finish Prop: -274
Career Record: 7-1
UFC Record: 2-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.41
Finishes: 4 KO / 3 Subs / 3 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, 2nd Round TKO - Curtis Blaydes
On a night when finding stoppages will be tough, Francis Ngannou offers what should be some much needed safety - even at a hefty price of $11,500. I'll have heavy exposure to Ngannou as he has stormed into the UFC with back-to-back knockout victories on top of being the heaviest favorite on the card at -650 to win and -274 to stop his opponent, Bojan Mihajlovic. Mihajlovic is making his UFC debut and is taking a huge step-up in competition to touch gloves with Ngannou on the main card. You should almost always target heavyweights and the line on Ngannou just screams "ROSTER ME". The end should come quickly in this one, don't go get a snack or you could miss the shot that lands you 100+ points.
Prediction: Ngannou - 1st Round KO
MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)
Dmitry Smoliakov ($10,100)
Vegas Line: -160
Finish Prop: -121
Career Record: 8-0
UFC Record: 0-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute: - (UFC Debut)
Finishes: 4 KO / 4 Subs / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round Submission (Kimura) - Sergey Grebnec
Even if you'd prefer Dmitry Smoliakov's opponent Luis Henrque in the opening fight of UFC on Fox 20, you should absolutely have someone from this bout on your roster. Henrque came out swinging in an entertaining fight against Ngannou in his outing but was eventually knocked out in the second round. Smoliakov hasn't just won leading up to his UFC debut, he's destroying people. Eight wins, eight first round victories, including sub-30 second wins in his last two fights. I actually think Henrque's pressure and willingness to bang early will force the action and help Smoliakov avoid the dreaded UFC jitters. From what I've seen of Smoliakov, and the bettors agree at a -121 finish prop, he's just too talented and finishes fights too fast to be ignored.
Prediction: Smoliakov - 2nd Round TKO
UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)
Jason Knight ($8,800)
Vegas Line: +180
Finish Prop: +400
Career Record: 13-2
UFC Record: 0-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 1.87
Finishes: 2 KO / 9 Subs / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision - Tatsuya Kawajiri
What I like about Jason Knight on this card is he only costs $8,800 in a fight that I think is much closer than that. Knight had a tough draw in Tatsuya Kawajiri for his UFC debut but Saturday he takes on a guy much closer to his level in Jim Alers. Knight already has 15 pro bouts under his belt at just 24 years of age but has been a little too dependent on submissions for more liking but the same is true of Alers. Alers his coming off of a fight with Cole Miller which was stopped due to an accidental eye poke and before that he was TKO'd by Chas Skelly. As far as underdogs go, Knight is a relatively safe play to score some points having never been finished and he certainly knows how to defend the submission. The value at $8,800 is definitely something to consider as Knight has every chance to win this fight and makes up most of the salary it will cost you to roster Ngannou.
Prediction: Knight - Unanimous Decision
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UFC 200
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image sources
- UFC_74_Respect_Bout: By Lee Brimelow (cropped from DSC_0029) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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UPDATE: George Sullivan has self-reported himself to USADA for possible violation – pulled from his fight. Cheat sheet has been updated.
Seems like everyone loves all three of these guys. I’m really intrigued by the main event. Holly is so much bigger and has so much more reach. I don’t know how someone is putting that much money on VS.
Don’t sleep on Shevchenko, especially from a fantasy perspective. The Main Event is likely to go to a decision and her Muay Thai is world class – I think she has a good floor especially at $8600
I had a little of each. Had night, which was nice, but a ton of Smol. Going to to have to have some trouble, I think.
I ended up a little ahead for the night, Smol was the killer but Shevchenko saved me in a lot of places.