Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

07/25/2016
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/25/16

 

Welcome to Monday baseball! We have an 11 game main slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position.

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PITCHER

Jake ArrietaJake Arrieta FD 10600 DK 12400
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 35.12 DK - 22.79

Pitcher position is very interesting today as there is nobody that sticks out, but there are a handful of guys that make for good plays. Arrieta is the leader of that bunch for me as he comes in with the best talent and match up combination. While Arrieta has struggled a little bit as of late, his peripherals suggest that he is the same exact pitcher that is just running into a hint of bad luck. In 2016, Arrieta has sported a 3.33 xFIP that is backed up by a 24.6% hard contact rate and a 19.8% line drive rate. While the White Sox are not a horrible team on offense, they strikeout at a 22% clip against righties and have struggled at home this season. While there are some other options to consider, Arrieta comes in at the top for me. If you are looking to pay down a bit, let's take a look at Aaron Sanchez.

Aaron SanchezAaron Sanchez FD 9600 DK 10900
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @TOR
FD - 32.89 DK - 21.42

Same strategy, different day. A right handed pitcher is taking on the San Diego Padres. The Padres are still the worst team in the league against right handers and I do not expect that to change anytime soon. Sporting a 24.8% K rate and a .288 wOBA, we can be sure that they are great targets for right handed pitching. They will face off with Aaron Sanchez today, a young right handed fireballer that has been excellent against righties and pretty good against lefties on the season. He has sported a .263 wOBA against right handers that is supported by a 19.3% line drive rate and a 23.1% hard contact rate. Not only is Sanchez cheaper than Arrieta, he has just as much safety and upside. Feel free to use Sanchez in both cash games ad tournaments.

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CATCHER

Jonathan LucroyJonathan Lucroy FD 3400 DK 5000
Opponent - ARI (Shipley) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.65

Braden Shipley is making his first career start, which will take place in the extremely hitter friendly Miller Park. While we don't know too much about Shipley, he has not been terrific in the minors and will likely struggle, especially in his major league debut. Jonathan Lucroy is one of the better hitting catchers in the league and while he is better against lefties, he can hit right handers just fine. In 2016, Lucroy has held a .384 wOBA that is backed up by strong batted ball peripherals. Lucroy is my top option at the position across the boards.

Victor MartinezVictor Martinez FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - BOS (Pomeranz) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.05

If you want to get off of Lucroy onto a guy with similar upside, let's take a look at Victor Martinez. While Pomeranz is a very good pitcher, he is going to have some trouble in Fenway and I expect him to give up some homers in this one. I could definitely see one of those coming from V-Mart as he has hit lefties to a .356 wOBA over the past 3 seasons. While he is far from a cash game play, he deserves serious consideration in tournaments. While he is only available at catcher on FanDuel, he is still a good play at first base on DraftKings.

 

FIRST BASE

Billy ButlerBilly Butler FD 2500 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.77

The Oakland Athletics are coming in as our top offense of the day and they are going to be all over this article, with the first of many being Billy Butler. Butler has hit lefties extremely well over the past 5 seasons with a .347 wOBA that is supported by a 31.2% hard contact rate and a .297 BABIP. We will touch on Martin Perez later, but for now, just know that he is a left handed veteran that is on the back end of his career. Butler is way too cheap around the industry and makes for a great play across the board, especially if he is in the top half of the lineup.

Anthony RizzoAnthony Rizzo FD 4700 DK 5300
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.94 DK - 10.65

The Cubs are going to be our 2nd favorite offense on the day as they will be taking on a gas can in the right handed Miguel Gonzalez. Miguel Gonzalez has sported a .362 wOBA over the past 2 seasons with some putrid batted ball peripherals to back it up. Anthony Rizzo on the other hand, has demolished right handers on the season with a .438 wOBA and a tremendous 38.3% hard contact rate. Rizzo is right up there with Billy Butler as the top option at first base.

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SECOND BASE

Ben ZobristBen Zobrist FD 4200 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.23

Ben Zobrist is really the only guy I am looking at for cash games at 2nd base, as the position is very scarce on this slate. As I just mentioned, Miguel Gonzalez is a bad right handed pitcher that has struggled against lefties, especially with power and extra base hits. Ben Zobrist, however, has been great against righties with a .354 wOBA and a 35.8% hard contact rate. With this game being played in U.S. Cellular Field, Zobrist gets a huge upgrade in the power spot. The Cubs are in a great spot here and you should be looking to get exposure to then wherever you can.

Scooter GennettScooter Gennett FD 3500 DK 3500
Opponent - ARI (Shipley) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.15 DK - 9.05

As I just mentioned, Braden Shipley is new to the MLB scene and will likely struggle in his first few starts, at least. Scooter Gennett has destroyed right handers since the beginning of his major league career, with a .345 wOBA that is backed up by some very strong batted ball peripherals. Shipley gave up a ton of walks in the minor leagues and that is usually something that carries over very much to the major leagues. While Zobrist is the clear top option at second base, Gennett is the guy I will turn to if I pivot him.

 

SHORTSTOP

Marcus SemienMarcus Semien FD 3200 DK 4800
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.77

Here is our 2nd of 4 Athletics bats in Marcus Semien, the power swinging right handed shortstop. Semien has been superb against lefties on the season with 10 home runs in only 88 official plate appearances. While that is amazing, his .390 wOBA may even surpass that. The Oakland Athletics are getting a huge ballpark upgrade moving from the spacious Oakland Coliseum to the hitter haven Globe Life Park in Arlington. Martin Perez will be touched on later, but just keep in mind that he is a very bad left handed pitcher. Semien is far and away my top option at shortstop, and it is not too close at all.

Troy TulowitzkiTroy Tulowitzki FD 2800 DK 4300
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.4

While this is the first Toronto Blue Jays bat mentioned, they make for tremendous plays against the gas can righty that is Colin Rea. Rea has been atrocious against both righties and lefties with a .362 combined wOBA that is supported by a 34% hard contact rate and a 23.4% line drive rate. Troy Tulowitzki on the other hand, has hit righties well over the past 3 seasons with a .348 wOBA and a very high HR/FB rate. This game will be played in the Rogers Centre, which is one of the best parks in the league for right handed power. While I will be very hard pressed to move off of Semien, Tulowitzki is a good option if you decide to do so.

 

THIRD BASE

Danny ValenciaDanny Valencia FD 2700 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.7

Danny Valencia, the southpaw masher. He will be taking on just that today, in Martin Perez. Over the last 3 seasons, Perez has given up a .364 wOBA that is backed up by a 36.2% hard contact rate and a 23.6% line drive rate. Valencia on the other hand, has destroyed left handers this season with a .441 wOBA that is supported by a .253 ISO and a 41% hard contact rate. Valencia is my top option on the day and he is my top pick on the day for a home run. You need to get some Athletics in your lineup, and Danny Valencia is a great way to do just that. While he is very expensive on DraftKings, he is very cheap on FanDuel at just $2700.

 

OUTFIELD

Khris DavisKhris Davis FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.23

Khris Davis is the 4th and final Oakland Athletics bat and he is my second favorite of them all. What more is there to say about this match up? Martin Perez is a horrible left handed pitcher and the bullpen will not improve much after they are into the game. Khris Davis has the most power on the team and will be benefiting the most from the ballpark upgrade. Davis makes for a tremendous play in both cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel at only $3700.

Dexter FowlerDexter Fowler FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.94 DK - 8.79
Jason HeywardJason Heyward FD 3000 DK 3100
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.96

Jason Heyward is our 3rd and final Cubs bat and while he is not the most talented bat on the roster, he offers speed and power upside which is hard to find. Heyward has hit righties to a .340 clip over the past 3 seasons and has managed to swipe 51 bases in the process. Miguel Gonzalez has struggled with giving up home runs and stolen bases over the last couple seasons and Jason Heyward will look to take advantage of those struggles. While Heyward is not a cash game option, he is tremendous in tournaments. Dexter Fowler on the other hand, has been one of the better hitters in the league this year and is great in both cash games and tournaments, across the board.

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12 Visitor Comments

  1. Not 1 person from Coors? you totally forgot that game. 2 pitchers who stink what happened?

    • EDIT ok i see they left coors sorry

  2. not like that at all sorry. I will stick to my lineup

  3. Butler career vs Perez is horrid and his season his is even worse. Semien and Davis sure but Butler? You mean Healey?

    • No, BvP is not a legitimate stat to use and I 150% prefer Butler over Healy. We will see how it plays out tonight!

  4. Country breakfast GTFOH

    • LOL

  5. so these are not good picks? to whomever

  6. So this article you recommend Lucroy and Gennett against the rookie Shipley because, “we don’t know much about him and he hasn’t been terrific”. Your other pitcher article today says he is a “top prospect, has en elite matchup, and is a nice SP2”. You also list all of his statistics in that article, which in this article you don’t know “much about him”. So which one is it? Is he a great choice in an elite matchup or should we pile bats against him which is what you seem to be saying in this article? Appreciate some clarification. Thanks.

    • I also mentioned that he has some walk problems when recommending Gennett (just hit a home run) and could definitely leave one over the plate. What I meant about we don’t know much about him is that he changed his entire pitching approach this offseason after struggling last year in the minors. Therefore, we only have about 40 innings to base anything legitimate off of, which is too small of a sample size.

  7. Which Fanduel are you looking at? Billy Butler isn’t averaging no where close to 10 ppg. Try 5. Where’s Doug been?

  8. That’s really crazy about the Pitcher Shipley! SMH

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