Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/26/16

 

Welcome to Tuesday baseball! We have a full 15 game main slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position.

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PITCHER

Marcus Stroman FD 7400 DK 8400
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @TOR
FD - 35.13 DK - 22.78

Oh boy, pitcher is absolutely horrible today. There is not a single guy that I am in love with today, which is why this is more of a tournament slate for me. That being said, there are definitely a few options worth considering in tournaments. The first of which being Marcus Stroman. Stroman has a very nice pedigree as he came up as a top prospect and has definitely disappointed at times. However, he has really turned it around this season with some major improvements against both lefties and righties. So far in 2016, Stroman has sported a combined .322 wOBA that is backed up by a 29% hard contact rate and a 20% line drive rate. Stroman will be taking on the San Diego Padres, whom as we know, are the worst team in the league against righties with a 26% strikeout rate and a .286 wOBA. Stroman is my top overall guy and if you are keen on playing cash games, this is the way to go.

Bud Norris FD 6600 DK 6300
Opponent - TB (Archer) Park - @LAD
FD - 33.94 DK - 22.5

Like I said, pitcher is absolutely atrocious today, which is why Bud Norris is the 2nd guy we are recommending. He has turned it around in a huge fashion since returning to the starting role. In 72 innings, Norris has sported a .327 wOBA that is backed up by very strong batted ball peripherals. That being said, there is definitely some expected regression due to a low BABIP. Norris and the Dodgers will be taking on the Tampa Bay Rays team, a right handed heavy lineup that strikes out at a 24.2% strikeout rate. While he is not someone to target in cash games, Norris makes for a great play in tournaments.

CATCHER

Willson Contreras FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.68

The catcher position is a pretty interesting one tonight due to the sole fact that the top offenses on the slate do not have a catcher in the middle of their order, i.e the Red Sox. That being said, the Cubs are as close to that as we are going to see. Willson Contreras has been hitting in the middle of the lineup and I do not see that changing anytime soon as he is still hitting extremely well. Against righties, Contreras has sported a .374 wOBA to go along with an outstanding .224 ISO. Shields on the other hand, has hit a wall this year and has been atrocious against everyone. Contreras is going to be on the top of my list here, though it is pretty cluttered with a few guys.

Jonathan Lucroy FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.34

Lucroy is breathing right down the neck of Contreras as my top guy at catcher, due to him taking on an average lefty in a tremendous ballpark for righty power. Patrick Corbin is not a guy I love to pick on, though he has had his fair share of troubles against righties over the past few seasons. In 90 innings, Corbin has given up a .355 wOBA that is backed up by a crazy 38.4% hard contact rate. While Lucroy has been better against righties this year, his career numbers tell us that those numbers against southpaws will even out very soon. While I prefer him in tournaments, Lucroy can be considered in all formats.

 

FIRST BASE

David Ortiz FD 4900 DK 5700
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 16.6 DK - 12.49

The Boston Red Sox are going to be all over this article as they will be taking on the one and only Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey is arguably the worst starting pitcher in the majors and I don't expect him to be around for too much longer. Thus far in 2016, Pelfrey has exhibited a putrid 5.15 xFIP that is well supported by a 33% hard contact rate and a 24% line drive rate. Neither of which will bode well in Fenway Park, and David Ortiz will look to take advantage. Ortiz has destroyed righties on the year with a nearly .500 wOBA and has exhibited a ton of power, even at the ripe age of 40. Ortiz makes for a terrific play across the board, on all sites.

Chris Davis FD 3900 DK 3600
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.42 DK - 10.76

First of all, I want to make it clear that it is going to be very tough for me to get off of David Ortiz in any format, on any site. However, there is always something to be said for pivoting at first base, as it has a ton of power. If I had to choose 1 guy to pivot to, it would be Chris Davis. Davis has insane power against righties as evident by his home run totals and rediculous hard contact rates over the last few years. Chad Bettis. however, has been putrid against left handers over the last 2 years with a .356 wOBA. While some of those numbers are in Coors Field, Camden yards is not a huge bump down from that. Davis makes for a tremendous play in tournaments, especially if he is low owned due to the Ortiz love.

 

SECOND BASE

Dustin Pedroia FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.58

Here we are going to look at another Boston Red Sox bat in the ever so consistent Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia has been terrific against right handers over the last 4 seasons with a .349 wOBA that is backed up by a very nice 23% line drive rate, which plays well in Fenway due to the Green Monster. Against righties, Pelfrey is not much better as he has sported a .363 wOBA to go along with some putrid batted ball peripherals. Pedroia makes for a great play in both cash games and tournaments.

Jose Altuve FD 3900 DK 5400
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.22 DK - 10.58

C.C. Sabathia has definitely changed some things around in his approach and is a better pitcher than he was last year. However, his peripherals still suggest some serious regression as his fastball has been irrationally effective. Altuve is a tremendous fastball pitcher and an even better bat against southpaws. Thus far in 2016, Altuve has hit lefties to the tune of a .453 wOBA that is certainly backed up by a 39% hard contact rate and an insane 31% line drive rate. Altuve is my favorite 2nd baseman in cash, though Pedroia is right there and I prefer him if you have other exposure to Boston.

 

SHORTSTOP

Carlos Correa FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.44 DK - 9.18

Like I just mentioned when speaking on Altuve, Sabathia is going to run into a wall soon when the impending regression hits him hard. Correa is another guy that mashes lefty and could come to benefit from Sabathia and his troubles against right handers. Dating back to 2015, Correa has hit lefties to a .343 wOBA that is backed up by a 35.8% hard contact rate. While the Yankees Stadium is not horrible for right handed power, Minute Maid Park is terrific as the Crawford Boxes provide a very short porch in left field. Correa is my favorite option at shortstop, thoug he he and Bogaerts are very close.

Xander Bogaerts FD 3400 DK 5000
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.52 DK - 10.05

Yep, here is another Boston bat and you can surely expect some more. That is what happens when a top 3 offense takes on Mike Pelfrey, a bottom 3 pitcher. While Bogaerts is surely better against lefties, he is no slouch against right handers. In 324 at-bats, he has sported a .364 wOBA with a 9.9% HR/FB rate. Some may point to his high BABIP and suggest regression, which is true. However, he hits a ton of line drives which inherently improve your BABIP. While I prefer Correa as a 1 off, Bogaerts definitely gets the nod if you have exposure to other Boston bats, which you should.

 

THIRD BASE

Manny Machado FD 3900 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.82 DK - 10.85

Manny Machado is back to 3rd base with J.J. Hardy back in the lineup, and while that is not great for us, it gives him a lower ownership on a daily basis. Today he will be facing the Colorado Rockies and Chad Bettis, who we have already touched on previously. While Bettis is worse against lefties, he is no Nolan Ryan against right handers either as evident by his .359 wOBA on the season. While this ballpark is no Coors Field, Machado obviously has no problem hitting home runs in Camden Yards as 12 of his 20 home runs have been at home. Machado is far and away my favorite option at 3rd base in both cash games and tournaments.

Travis Shaw FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.86 DK - 9.23

4 Red Sox bats down, 2 to go. If I had to option to play 7 bats from a single team, I just might choose to do it today. The Red Sox have arguably the most explosive offense in the league, especially when they are in the hitter haven that is Fenway Park. Travis Shaw specifically, has hit righties extremely well on the season with a .355 wOBA and 9 of his 12 home runs coming off of righties. While we have said enough about Pelfrey, the bullpen is almost as bad with a 4.07 xFIP as a whole. Also of note, if Pelfrey struggles, the bad bullpen arms will come in and those guys are not on the same level as Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Wilson.

 

OUTFIELD

Mookie Betts FD 4200 DK 5600
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.95 DK - 12.4
Jackie Bradley FD 3000 DK 0
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.94 DK - 10.19

There is not much more to say. Whatever you do, make sure you get some exposure to this offense as they are in as good of a spot as a team in the majors can be, outside of Coors Field against Mike Pelfrey. Both Betts and Bradley have hit righties magnificently this season with both of them a holding a wOBA upwards of +.360. If I had to choose one, I would obviously go with Betts, though the pricing reflects that. While I am sure you have heard it enough, the Red Sox are a team that you are going to want exposure to in both cash games and tournaments. If you made me choose 4, I would go with Ortiz, Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley Jr., in that order.

Miguel Sano FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL (Harrell) Park - @MIN
FD - 13.1 DK - 9.87

While this is the first time the Twins have been mentioned, they make for great plays, especially in tournaments. Lucas Harrell is going to have a short lived MLB stint for a few weeks and we should be looking to target him for as long as we can. Miguel Sano has been a righty killer since entering the majors as evident by his .363 wOBA that is backed up by a crazy 40.9% hard contact rate. While i certainly prefer the Red Sox in cash, Sano is on the top of my tournament list in the outfield.

George Springer FD 3500 DK 5200
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.74

We are going to touch on the Astros bats just one more time here with the huge upside guy in George Springer. While Springer hits righties well, he demolishes southpaws. In 99 at-bats this season, Springer has hit 7 home runs and has held a .413 wOBA against lefties. Like I mentioned a few times, Sabathia is going to run into a brick wall very soon and I would not be surprised to the big Astros bats start that trend. While Springer is inherently a GPP type of player, I like him in both cash games and tournaments tonight.

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