Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/28/16

 

Welcome to Thursday baseball! We have an 8 game main slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position.

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PITCHER

Jose Fernandez FD 11800 DK 13400
Opponent - STL (Wacha) Park - @MIA
FD - 42.22 DK - 27.75

The pitcher position is pretty loaded tonight, though there is nobody that really stands up above the other elite options. That being said, there is only one team with a team total under 3, and that is the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are a right-handed heavy that has struggled pretty mightily against right handers with high strikeout rates on the season. Jose Fernandez on the other hand, has demolished righties on the season as evident by the .216 wOBA against. Along with a great wOBA, he has sported a 28.7% hard contact rate and a 15.34 K/9. While there is a ton of top pitching options on the slate, Fernandez is on the top of the list for me.

Johnny Cueto FD 10700 DK 11900
Opponent - WSH (Roark) Park - @SF
FD - 35.73 DK - 23.78
In tournaments, Jose Fernandez is definitely the guy I am looking at the most. However, in cash games, Johnny Cueto is right up there. He has been very consistent this season with 16 of his 20 starts being that of quality. In 140 innings, he has sported a .263 wOBA to go along with 3.26 xFIP and a 26% hard contact rate. He will be taking on a Washington Nationals team struggling a bit against righties with a .314 wOBA and a 0.48 BB/K rate. The game will be taking place in AT&T Park, which is one of the absolute best for right handed pitchers. Cueto is just another guy in the high priced range to consider at pitcher, though he is a better play on FanDuel at $10700.

David Price FD 10100 DK 9300
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @LAA
FD - 34.96 DK - 23.13

As you can see, we definitely think you should be paying up at pitcher tonight. If you attempt to pay down, you will need some major luck and for a guy to go absolutely nuts as a few of these expensive guys are going to pay off very nicely. David Price is another guy to consider here as he will be taking on the weak Angels team in a very pitcher friendly ballpark. While Price has struggled a bit this year, his peripherals point to him being the same guy that he has over the past few seasons. The Angels have been bad on the year, though they do not strikeout at a huge clip. While I certainly prefer Fernandez and Cueto, David Price is definitely an option.

CATCHER

Welington Castillo FD 2500 DK 2800
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 8.23 DK - 6.37

Moving onto the catcher position, we are going to start off with Welington Castillo. Castillo and the Diamondbacks are in a great position in Miller Park, which is a great environment for right handed power. The D-Backs will be taking on Zach Davies, who has struggled mightily against right handed power on the season, with 7 home runs in 70 innings to go along with a 6 K/9 rate. Castillo has been great on the year and has picked it up lately with a few homers in the last 10 games.

Jonathan Lucroy FD 3700 DK 3800
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.42 DK - 8.14

Jonathan Lucroy is going to be our 2nd option here at catcher and he is my top option for cash games. The Brewers and Jonathan Lucroy will be taking on Robbie Ray, a southpaw that has been pretty horrible against righties on the season. In 80.1 innings, he has given up a .348 wOBA and a lofty 12 home runs, which equates to a 1.34 HR/9. Lucroy on the other hand, has sported a .342 wOBA over the past 3 seasons. With Miller park being a tremendous hitters park, I could definitely see him blasting a homer tonight.

Travis D'Arnaud FD 2100 DK 2900
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.73 DK - 6.75

If you are looking to pay way down, Travis D'Arnaud is really the only guy to consider. Sitting at $2100 on FanDuel and $2900 on DraftKings, he helps you pay up at other positions. Dating back to his debut in 2011, D'Arnaud has hit lefties to a .326 wOBA to go along with a 10.9% HR/FB rate. Tyler Anderson, however, has struggled against righties with a .346 wOBA over the past 2 seasons. Though I certainly wish this game was in Coors Field, D'Arnaud has proven his ability to hit homers in Citi Field. While he is not recommended for cash games, D'Arnaud is definitely a worthy play in tournaments.

Consider - Matt Wieters, Dioner Navarro

 

FIRST BASE

Chris Davis FD 4000 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.77 DK - 9.53

The Orioles offense is going to be heavily mentioned here and they are definitely our top offense on the night. The first of which is going to be Chris Davis, the free-swinging power bat. Davis is right up there with the most powerful bats in the game and has made that evident over the past few seasons. Davis has not held back this season either with a .343 wOBA that is supported by a 42.1% hard contact rate. Not to mention, those numbers are down a bit and his peripherals suggest some improvement. We will talk about Kyle Gibson, but for now just know that he is a weak right hander that struggles against both sides of the plate.

Chris Carter FD 3600 DK 3700
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.27 DK - 8.41

We just talked about Jonathan Lucroy and now we are going to take a look at the guy who will be hitting in the spot after him, Chris Carter. Carter has top 5 raw power type of stuff and while he is not a great "hitter", the ball goes a far way when he makes contact. He has a great chance of making a bunch of contact here against Robbie Ray, who has given up a .348 wOBA to right handers on the season. While he doesn't have the cash game safety of some, he has as much tournament upside as any.

Ryan Howard FD 2100 DK 3100
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.28 DK - 7.03

Yep, you read that right. Ryan Howard. The Ryan Howard that hit 57 home runs and won the MVP trophy in 2006. Unfortunately, he is no longer anywhere close to that. However, he is still a guy with a ton of power and he has quietly shown that this season. With the leagues 11th longest average flyball distance and a 43.5% hard contact rate, he obviously has the power. He will be taking on a pitcher in Matt Wisler that struggles against both sides of the play and will likely struggle against this offense that can nickel and dime you to death. While Howard won't be nickeling or dimeing, he might be smashing a home run or two.

Consider - David Ortiz, Brandon Belt, Byung-ho Park

 

SECOND BASE

Jonathan Schoop FD 3700 DK 4200
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.3 DK - 7.2

Here is the second of many Orioles bats and this is the guy who I love in tournaments as he should go way too low owned. The general public will expect him to be worse against righties, when that is in fact not the case. So far in 2016, Jonathan Schoop has hit righties to a .360 wOBA clip that is heavily backed up by a 20% line drive rate and a .327 BABIP. The Orioles are a team that can absolutely destroy a pitcher in this ballpark and this could easily be one of those days where the opposing pitcher doesn't make it out of the 2nd inning. While I am not predicting that, there is something to be said for it in tournaments. While Schoop is in play everywhere, I prefer him in cash games as he is a bit power reliant.

Jean Segura FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 8.51 DK - 7.52

Jean Segura is a very consistent hitter as evident by his 15 base hits in the last 10 games, with 2 of those being dingers. The early slate does not offer too much offense outside of this game and especially at second base. Therefore, Segura is going to be very highly owned. While that is not preferred, it is something you just have to do at times on short slates where there is nobody else in a positive situation. Segura gives you upside at the position with speed and power that nobody else possesses. While some may be on Neil Walker, he is a much worse hitter from the right side of the plate which is where he will be against the southpaw Tyler Anderson.

Dustin Pedroia FD 3700 DK 4200
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.77 DK - 7.71

Pedroia and the Red Sox are another team on our radar here as they are taking on the lifeless Jered Weaver. Weaver has failed to throw a fastball over 85 MPH in a few years and his ability has decreased right along with his velocity. In 63 innings against righties, Weaver has held a .375 wOBA that is securely held up by a 5.76 xFIP and a nearly 39% hard contact rate. Pedroia on the other hand, has been the same consistent bat as always and has a ton of upside in this explosive offense. While the ballpark is not optimal, the Red Sox offense is far from reliant on power to produce.

Consider - Brian Dozier, Jurickson Profar/Rougned Odor

 

SHORTSTOP

Xander Bogaerts FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.18 DK - 8.17

While Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia are the only 2 mentioned, the entire Red Sox offense is in play, especially on tournaments where they should be a bit lower owned than usual. Jered Weaver is awful and as mentioned, will struggle mightily against an explosive Red Sox team. Bogaerts is right in the middle of that offense as he hits 3rd and is sandwiched by Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz, which leads to him getting a ton of pitches to hit. Bogaerts has held a 346 wOBA against righties on the road this year and I expect that number to get lifted a bit in this match up against the ancient Jered Weaver.

Eduardo Nunez FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.99 DK - 9.58

The shortstop position is one I actually love on this slate and I think that is due to the fact that I don;t think my favorite options are going to be very highly owned. My second favorite option and my favorite in tournaments is Eduardo Nunez, the right handed leadoff hitter who has sported a .321 wOBA and a 9.6% HR/FB rate against righties. Ubaldo Jimenez, his opponent, has struggled against righties over the past 3 seasons with a .341 wOBA to go along with some putrid batted ball peripherals. The twins are a very sneaky stack and one to consider in both large field and small field tournaments.

Tim Anderson FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - CHC (Lackey) Park - @CHC
FD - 7.69 DK - 6.83

Timothy Anderson is another shortstop I love here against the Cubs as he has unprecedented power and speed upside. In only 40 games, Anderson has managed to hit 5 home runs and steal 3 bases, though he has much more potential than that with 49 stolen bases in AA last season. While John Lackey is not a guy I tend to target, he has had his fair share of troubles this year and I do not mind targeting base stealers against him. While I will likely stick with Bogaerts or Nunez in cash games, Anderson makes for a fabulous tournament option.

Consider - Brandon Crawford, Freddy Galvis

 

THIRD BASE

Manny Machado FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.24 DK - 9.61

I told you that we really like the Orioles offense and I was far from kidding. Machado enters as our 3rd bat from the lineup and he just might be the favorite or right up there with Chris Davis. The Orioles are taking on Kyle Gibson, a right handed gas can that has been mauled by righties in his career. In 2016, he has held a 4.30 xFIP that is supported by a 14.3% HR/FB rate and a 13.6% IFB rate against right handers. In short, he gives up a ton of home runs to righties. Machado on the other hand, has been magnificent against righties on the season with a .384 wOBA that is backed up by any peripheral you can think of. Machado is the top option in both cash games and tournaments, on both sites.

Jacob Lamb FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.3 DK - 8

Zach Davies is not a good pitcher, although some will point to his good wOBA and object that statement. However, you have to look a bit deeper than that. His batted ball stats and peripherals suggest he is going to have a steep decline very soon and that could certainly happen here against a Diamondbacks team that has a ton of upside. Lamb has been spectacular against righties this year with a .420 wOBA and a 45.4% hard contact rate. Those are some elite numbers and you should definitely look at Lamb like an elite batter against righties.

Maikel Franco FD 3300 DK 3300
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.3 DK - 7.96

Maikel Franco is the other power bat on the Orioles and he has already well surpassed Ryan Howard as a pure hitter. While he is definitely a tournament-only guy due to his boom or bash swing, he makes for a tremendous play at 3rd base. With a ton of the ownership being on Machado and Shaw, I expect Franco to come in around or less than 10%, which is fantastic. Wisler has been a gas can for his entire career and this season has been no different. In 2016, Wisler has held a 4.80 xFIP to go along with a 3.2% hard contact rate against righties. Franco should be avoided in cash games and heavily target in tournaments, especially on DraftKings at $3300.

Consider - Travis Shaw, Pedro Alvarez in tournaments only

 

OUTFIELD

Ryan Braun FD 3800 DK 5200
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.48 DK - 10.02

We are big fans of the Brewers offense in tournaments and that is evident by the 3 individuals mentioned in Lucroy, Carter and now Ryan Braun. Braun is the best bat on the team and has historically crushed left handers. In 83 at-bats this season, Braun has obliterated lefties with a .426 wOBA that is backed up by a 37.1% hard contact rate. Given the match up and ballpark, the Brewers could be in for a huge day. While Braun is very highly priced on DraftKings, his price is great on FanDuel at $3800.

Miguel Sano FD 3800 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.57

Miguel Sano has gotten a big price bump around the industry, though is upside is still too high for where his price sits. He will be taking on the before mentioned Ubaldo Jimenez, who is a very bad pitcher ta this point in his career. With a .341 wOBA against righties since 2014, Jimenez can be safely targeted by hitters from both sides of the plate. Miguel Sano bursted onto the scene last year and has mashed righties with a .359 wOBA since then. While the ballpark isn't elite, it ranked as the 12th best in the league last season for right handed power. Sano makes for a great play in both cash games and tournaments, though I prefer him in tourneys.

Yoenis Cespedes FD 3600 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.17

Cespedes goes under the radar for the most part, but has quietly had a terrific season. With 21 home runs, a 165 wRC+ and a 45% hard contact rate, we can safely say he is in the middle of his prime. He will take on a lefty in Tyler Anderson that as we mentioned, struggles against right handers. In 36 innings, Anderson has given up 4 home runs and a .322 wOBA to righties. While he will be very highly owned, he is worth on a slate that lacks upside in the outfield.

Mark Trumbo FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.03

We are going to end the article with the 4th and finals Orioles bat, Mark Trumbo. Trumbo has a ton of power which is quite obvious by his league leading 30 home runs on the season. While he struggles a bit against lefties, he absolutely demolishes righties. In 293 at-bats, Trumbo has sported a .396 wOBA and a 38.9% hard contact rate against right handers. Camden yards is one of the best hitter ballpark in the league and Trumbo has been terrific there with 16 of his 30 home runs being there. The Orioles are in play in all formats, though they are a bit expensive across the spectrum.

Consider - Mookie Betts, Giancarlo Stanton, Cody Asche, Nomar Mazara

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