Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/30/16


Welcome to Saturday baseball! We have a a full 15 game all day slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position.

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Jake ArrietaJake Arrieta FD 10800 DK 11800
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @CHC
FD - 39.04 DK - 25.45

The pitcher position is a very interesting one tonight as there is nobody that sticks out, but there are plenty of guys that are in quality positions. Arrieta is going to be on the top of that list as he has the most talent that is in a good match up. While the Seattle Mariners do have some big left handed bats, they also strikeout at a 20% rate and have sported a .448 SLG. Arrieta on the other hand, has been dominant on the season with a sub .250 wOBA that is backed up by a 26% hard contact rate. This game takes place in Wrigley Field, which is a very neutral ballpark, and is heavily influenced by the wind speed and direction. Arrieta is definitely a little bit risky, but he is the safest on the board and offers a ton of upside.

Julio TeheranJulio Teheran FD 8300 DK 9500
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @ATL
FD - 35.23 DK - 23.91

Julio Teheran is another guy with a ton of upside as he can strikeout 10 batters in any given start. Teheran and the Braves will be taking on the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that has sported a .297 wOBA and a 18% line drive rate against right handers. Julio Teheran, however, has been fantastic against both righties and lefties with a combined wOBA of .263. To go along with a great wOBA, he has exhibited a 2.85 xFIP and a 10% HR/FB rate. Teheran is a guy who should be priced around $10000 on both sites, although he is much cheaper than that. While it is very difficult to expect a win, I think the Braves will be able to score some runs on Hellickson. While I prefer Arrieta in cash games, Teheran just might be my preference in tournaments.

Jameson TaillonJameson Taillon FD 7400 DK 8200
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @MIL
FD - 29.45 DK - 19.37

We are now going to look down the pricing spectrum a bit at the top Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon. Taillon has already shown just how good he is with some very quality starts in only 40 innings. In only 40 innings, he has struck out 31 batters and have only walked 5. He will be taking on the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that has been absolutely pitiful against right handers. The Brewers strikeout a TON against righties with a 26.2% strikeout rate to go along with a .308 wOBA. Taillon definitely has a ton of risk, though he has just as much upside at that low price.

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Buster PoseyBuster Posey FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - WSH (Lopez) Park - @SF
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.89

Starting us off at the catcher position, we are going to take a look at Buster Posey. Posey is going to take on a left hander and when that is the case, you have to take a long hard look at him as catcher has a lot less upside than the other positions. Against lefties over the past 3 seasons, Posey has demolished them with a .372 wOBA that is backed up by strong peripherals and batted ball rates. Reynaldo Lopez has struggled against righties over the past 2 years with a .347 wOBA to go along with rough peripherals. Posey is far and away my top options in both cash games and tournaments, and he is way too cheap.

Russell MartinRussell Martin FD 2800 DK 3000
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.07

The Toronto Blue Jays are in a great spot tonight as they will be taking on Yovani Gallardo and the weak Orioles bullpen. The Blue Jays hit 3 home runs in the first inning yesterday and then slowed down a considerable amount in the following 8 innings. They will look to get back to the home run swing and Russell Martin has a good shot of getting in on the action. Gallardo has struggled against righties over the past 5 seasons as evident by his .342 wOBA and 4.62 xFIP. Martin may not be as safe as Posey, but he has just as much upside.

Willson ContrerasWillson Contreras FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.59

The Cubs are another team that is in a spectacular position as they will be taking on a below average left hander in Wade Miley. Contreras has bursted into the major leagues with 5 home runs in only 36 games. Against lefties, Contreras has exhibited a .346 wOBA that is supported by a 12.5% HR/FB rate and a 33.6% hard contact rate. Depending on the wind direction and speed, Contreras may be a better option than Buster Posey and Russell Martin.



Miguel CabreraMiguel Cabrera FD 3400 DK 5200
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @DET
FD - 12.94 DK - 9.85

Miguel Cabrera is still the best hitter on planet earth. Do not let the hype of these young guys get in the way of that If you could have one guy in the league at the plate with the bases loaded and 0 outs, it is Miguel Cabrera. He will be taking on Mike Fiers tonight, a right handed fireballer that profiles as the exact definition of average. Average is not something you want to be know as when you are trying to get Miggy out, as he is far from average. He has sported a +.400 wOBA against righties for many years now and this year will be no different. Cabrera has the most safety on the slate and brings as much upside to the table as anyone else can.

Jose AbreuJose Abreu FD 2600 DK 3900
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.74 DK - 9

Jose Abreu is going to be my top option at first if you decide to pivot off of Miguel Cabrera. The White Sox as a whole are in a great spot here against Tommy Milone and Abreu is the beating heart of that lineup. While the power has taken a dip, his peripherals suggest it will come back and when it does, it will come in bunches. This match up could certainly be the one that puts him in the right direction. While he is far riskier than Miguel Cabrera, he has as much upside as anyone on this slate. As a note, Target Field is a positive park for right handed power.

Kendrys MoralesKendrys Morales FD 3400 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.43 DK - 7.94

The Kansas City Royals are in a very interesting spot here as they are in a great match up, but are a team that is pretty difficult to predict results from. Their entire lineup is filled with guys that make a ton of contact and just do their best to get a single. The one guy who is not like that is Kendrys Morales. Morales is swinging for the fences every single time he steps into the batters box and today will be no exception. We targeted the Oakland Athletics last week with Perez and I will be going back to the well here with the Royals. While I certainly prefer Cabrera and Abreu, Morales should be lesser owned than both.

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Ben ZobristBen Zobrist FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.59

Here is our second Cubs bat and he is going to be our top option at second base, a position that lacks both safety and upside. The Cubs will be taking on Wade Miley, a southpaw that has had his fair share of troubles against opposing right handers. So far through 80 innings in 2016, Miley has given up a .363 wOBA and 15 home runs to righties. Zobrist on the other hand, is a switch hitter that prefers to hit from the right side of the plate. The Cubs are a team to get exposure to and Zobrist makes for a very good way to do just that.

Chase UtleyChase Utley FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - ARI (Shipley) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.42 DK - 8.18

The Dodgers are another one of our favorite offenses on this slate as they are taking on a young right hander in Braden Shipley. Shipley struggled last time out against the brewers and while i took some heat for recommending Brewers, it paid off as 4 of them hit home runs. The Dodgers are next in line here for Shipley and I expect him to struggle for a few more starts before he gets acclimated to the big leagues. Utley is obviously not the same guy he was 10 years ago, but he still has the supreme consistency against right handers. If you are looking for a super safe cash game play on the cheap side, Chase Utley is the guy.

Rougned OdorRougned Odor FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.31 DK - 9.15
Jurickson ProfarJurickson Profar FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.02 DK - 9.73

Is it just me or does it seem like one of these 2 guys has a great day almost every game. We are going to take another look at them tonight as they will be facing off with Ian Kennedy, a very bad pitcher that has run into a string of good luck. With a 5.26 xFIP against lefties, you can be sure that Kennedy is going to see some more regression against the Rangers in this one. Both Profar and Odor have sported wOBA's over .350 on the season and will look to continue that trend for a few more months. IF I had to choose one, I would say whoever is in the higher lineup spot, though Profar is much cheaper across the industry.



Corey SeagerCorey Seager FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - ARI (Shipley) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.97

The shortstop position is a pretty interesting one tonight as there are a bunch of options that are worthy of serious consideration. The first of which is Corey Seager, who will be taking on the pre-mentioned right hander Braden Shipley. Seager has been absolutely terrific against right handers on the season as evident by his .396 wOBA and 36.6% hard contact rate. While the ballpark is not phenomenal, Seager has proven his ability to hit here as he has sported a .418 wOBA in Dodgers Stadium righties.

Francisco LindorFrancisco Lindor FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - OAK (Overton) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.25 DK - 9.34

Lindor is going to be the second shortstop we take a look at here as the Indians are in a great spot to put up some runs. The Indians are another team that is a bit difficult to peg fro production as the entire lineup can do damage, whether it be with a home runs or a dink single. Lindor, however, is in the heart of the lineup and is in a terrific spot against the lefty in Dillon Overton. Overton has been pitiful against righties with a .465 wOBA and 4 home runs in only 11 innings. While he may not be THAT bad, he is definitely someone we can target across the board.

Tim AndersonTim Anderson FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.56 DK - 8.5

Tim Anderson has been a highly touted prospect for some time now and has finally showed his value at the major league level. He has shown some raw power to go along with his speed that earned him his 58 stolen bases in 2015. He will be facing off with Tommy Milone, a right handed soft tosser that has given up a .350 wOBA to right handers in 2016 and a .331 in 2015. While I don't think the power is this raw for Anderson, he will also steal more bases very soon, which pretty much evens everything out. The White Sox make for a very nice GPP stack and Anderson as a 1 off is great play in all formats.



Kris BryantKris Bryant FD 4100 DK 5100
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.92

Here is our 3rd, final and also favorite Chicago Cub, Kris Bryant. Bryant is one of the best bats in the league and has proven the excessive hype to be true. However, he is more than impressive against lefties specifically. Since the beginning off this season, Bryant has hit lefties to a .430 wOBA clip that is supported by a 41.6% hard contact rate and a 23% line drive rate. As mentioned, Wade Miley is a bad pitcher and has struggled with the long ball against righties. I am going to go ahead and predict a Kris Bryant home run here. Let's hope!

Justin TurnerJustin Turner FD 3500 DK 5300
Opponent - ARI (Shipley) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.38 DK - 8.86

Justin Turner has been on absolute FIRE over the past 30 days. With a .434 wOBA in the month of July, Turner has turned the season around and has become the viable 3 hitter that he was all of last year. While most righties prefer to hit lefties, Turner is the opposite and has some pretty severe reverse splits. In 262 at-bats, Turner has hit righties to a .386 wOBA that is backed up by a strong hard contact rate and surrounding peripherals. I have a feeling that the Dodgers are going to go very low owned and I think that is a huge mistake by the general public.

Jung-ho KangJung-ho Kang FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.05 DK - 8.66

Jung-ho Kang is a guy that goes way under the radar and still performs at a very high level. Against righties in particular, Kang has sported a .348 wOBA against righties to go along with a .365 wOBA in 2015. The Pirates will be taking on Chase Anderson, a right handed gas can that has given up a .429 wOBA to right handers thus far in 2016. While I already used my home run prediction on Kris Bryant, I am going to double down here and go with Kang. The game will be played in Milwaukee at Miller Park, the league's 5th best park for right handed power.



Nomar MazaraNomar Mazara FD 2100 DK 3700
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.65 DK - 9.08

We are going to go back to the Rangers here with Nomar Mazara, who is back to his true ability to hit. He went through a brief cold streak and was moved down to the 8 spot for a few games. Those days are long gone and the Rangers will need his production against righties from here on out as Prince Fielder will miss the remainder of the season. So far in 2016, Mazara has sported a .348 wOBA against right handers that is backed up by a 34.7% hard contact rate. This game will take place in Globe Life Park, which is one of the top 10 hitter ballparks in the league. Ian Kennedy, as I mentioned, is a bad pitcher and will not have the ballpark factor in his favor like he usually does with Kauffman Stadium.

Jose BautistaJose Bautista FD 4500 DK 0
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.42 DK - 10.88
Michael SaundersMichael Saunders FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.33

We are going to go back to the Blue Jays here in the outfield with Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders. Both of these guys have been phenomenal against righties over the past 162 games with +.360 wOBA's that are backed up by very strong peripherals and batted ball rates. As I mentioned when talking about Russell Martin, Gallardo is no longer a good pitcher and is on a steep downfall. The Blue Jays are great plays in both cash games and tournaments, and are too cheap around the industry.

Miguel SanoMiguel Sano FD 3800 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.62 DK - 9.51
Robbie GrossmanRobbie Grossman FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.24 DK - 8.18

As you can tell, there are a ton of teams in play tonight and you can go a whole bunch of different ways in tournaments. The twins are another one of those teams as they will be taking on Miguel Gonzalez, a right handed soft tosser that has given up a .342 wOBA to righties and a .361 wOBA to left handers. While the game would be better in U.S. Cellular, Target Field is definitely a hitter ballpark. Both Grossman and Sano have sported a +.350 wOBA against righties over the past 2 seasons and I don't see any peripherals to suggest any decline. Though I prefer the Blue Jays and Mazara, Grossman and Sano come in right behind them on the list.

So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.



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12 Visitor Comments

  1. Targeting a few of these guys myself. No idea why Mazara is so cheap on FD but it makes it near impossible not to play him. Pitching is tough again and I do like Teheran as well but it seems like he’s always injured are coming off an injury. Verlander on FD makes sense if you think the tigers can get to fiers early and give him a few runs to play with. Houston K’s alot and when they get away from the Crawford boxes at home they do not worry me as much, except Altuve ofcourse who is just an animal and can hit anyone , anywhere.

  2. The prices on the Rangers in general have been crazy of late. Profar and Mazara have been way to cheap for guys that hit at the top of the line up, let alone good players.

    I’m a Braves fan and Teheran stuck out for me tonight. For whatever reason, he’s better at home and should be able to get some Ks. I’m playing him.

  3. Austyn, buddy, you need some MILK…Lopez is a righty not a lefty; hence, posey is not that great of a pick….

  4. posey can smash any pitcher lefty righty don’t matter and he has pence and nunez added to roster. So buster is a great pick.

  5. Love the name Mr. MilkMan!!!
    As for The early 4 game slate on DK
    Is anyone feeling that using a lineup
    for that slate may cash in on the all day
    GPP…better yet take an easier $3 – $10 50/50??

    • Disregard my question!!
      I thought the Buckos was a 6:10 p.m

  6. I’m starting to warm up to playing Teheran tonight I’d just hate to roll him out and he throws a couple pitches feels a tweak in his lat and comes out. He should be fine but I’ve been burned by stuff like this before and it always makes me think twice.

  7. I have a decent amount of Tigers and Dodgers tonight…So just so everyone knows, they’ll probably both get shutout.

    As for Teheran, I think with so few great options, it’s a good idea to take a risk. He could get blown up, or he could also toss a gem. With the injury, I’m thinking not too many people are on him.

  8. Is Doug ever going to write these articles again? I’m not even reading this any more! Dude leans toward the same games & same picks every day!

  9. Comment section is heating up the last few days. Like I said he’s basically just giving vanilla basic picks without really digging to deep. What else can you expect from a free site? He probably has his own plays going and doesn’t want to give away his whole lineup lol. He also puts these out way to early if you ask me. Without knowing lineups or taking weather into consideration. I can already tell you tomorrow he will recommend astro hitters vs pellfrey. Kluber vs Oakland. Liriano vs Milwaukee. Jason Kipnis and he seems to like white sox hitters this week. Watch lol. But they are solid general picks you just can’t expect anything mind blowing.

  10. Actually he won’t recommend Kipnis I take that back. Here is my predictions who he will pick

    Sp- Kluber, Liriano, Martinez
    C Gattis, Posey
    1b Goldschmidt, Votto
    2b Altuve , Odor/Profar
    3b Alex bregman, Kris Bryant
    ss Correra, Trea turner
    OF Springer, Harper, Bruce

    Lets see how many I get right lol

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