Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/4/16

 

Welcome to Tuesday baseball! We have a 7 game game main slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!

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PITCHER

Drew Smyly FD 8900 DK 7600
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @TB
FD - 32.77 DK - 21.56

The pitcher position is not better in the early slate which is leading me tot eh the guy that is facing the team with the lowest run expectancy. That team is the Kansas City Royals and the opposing pitcher is Drew Smyly. While Smyly has certainly came back down to earth this year, he still has some very good peripherals with a 9-10 K/9 and a 27.2% hard contact rate. While the Royals are known as a team that mashes all pitching, they are nowhere near that on the season as they have added guys like Paulo Orlando and Cheslor Cuthbert to their previously dynamic lineup. The Royals are a team to take advantage of and we will be doing that with Drew Smyly on the early slate.

Drew Pomeranz FD 9600 DK 9400
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 33.95 DK - 22.47

The pitcher position is very odd tonight as there is absolutely no guy that stands out over the field. That being said, Drew Pomeranz is going to be at the to of my list. He will be taking on a Seattle Mariners team that has sported a .316 wOBA to go along with a 22% K rate. Pomeranz on the other hand, has been terrific against both lefties and righties with respective wOBA's of .275 and .265. Pomeranz is also receiving a huge bump as well as they are moving from the hitter friendly Fenway Park to the pitcher friendly Safeco Field. While there is certainly some risk in Pomeranz, every single option on the list comes with a bunch of risk. Pomeranz is the top option across the board in all formats, on both sites.

J.A. Happ FD 9100 DK 11600
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @HOU
FD - 30.48 DK - 20.23

I told you it was ugly. Secondly, we are going to look at J.A. Happ. While the Houston Astros are certainly a team with a ton of home run upside, they have been horrible against left handers. In 1145 plate appearances, the Astros have sported a .312 wOBA to go along with a 23.5% hard contact rate and a 0.40 BB/K. Happ on the other hand, has dominated righties with a .293 wOBA and a 3.95 xFIP. To go along with those great baseline stats, his 31% hard contact rate and a 11.2% HR/FB rate suggest that his baseline stats are very accurate. While the ballpark is not terrific, Happ has been just fine in pitcher parks this season.

CATCHER

Victor Martinez FD 3100 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @DET
FD - 10.93 DK - 8.37
James McCann FD 2100 DK 2600
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @DET
FD - 7.07 DK - 5.61

The early slate offers up some interesting options at catcher with a few upside guys and a few safe guys like Yadier Molina and Buster. We are going to look at Victor Martinez, who combines both safety and upside. Sitting at just $3100 on FanDuel and $3400 on DraftKings, there is no reason to not consider V-Mart. Over the past 4 seasons, Martinez has sported a .364 wOBA against lefties that is backed up by his very strong peripherals and batted ball rates. If you are on DraftKings and are unable to play Martinez at the catcher position, McCann is a terrific pivot at just $2600. You can consider Martinez at first base if you want to get someone way lower owned on DK.

Stephen Vogt FD 3300 DK 2800
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.07 DK - 7.04

Starting us off at the catcher position, we are going to look at Stephen Vogt. The Catcher position is another tough spot here as nobody looks to be in a spectacular spot. Vogt is a right handed smasher and has proved that over the past 2 seasons with a .349 wOBA and a 34% hard contact rate. The Oakland Athletics and Vogt will be taking on Ricky Nolasco, a right handed veteran that has given up a .322 wOBA, 6 home runs and a 24.2% hard contact rate. While he may not have a ton of upside, Vogt is going to be my favorite play in cash games.

Evan Gattis FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.17 DK - 6.93

I know I just mentioned J.A. Happ, but this is baseball and you have to consider Gattis for GPP's. Against lefties, Gattis has sported a .345 wOBA to go along with a 30% HR/BR rate and a 116 wRC+. While Happ is obviously not the guy I want to target, he has given up some home runs to right handed power hitters on the season. Let me be clear, Gattis is a tournament option and I will have absolutely no exposure to him in cash games. That being said, Gattis is just way to cheap on FanDuel at $2700. Therefore, i could see the merit in playing him in cash games.

 

FIRST BASE

Mike Napoli FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - MIN (Santiago) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.31

Mike Napoli is a notorious left handed killer and will be facing off with a southpaw today that gives up a ton of power to right handers. Over the past 5 seasons, Napoli has hit lefties to the tune of a .361 wOBA that is backed up by a 138 wRC+ and a 35.7% hard contact rate. Napoli and the Indians will be facing off with Hector Santiago, a lefty who has had his fair share of troubles against right handers. Through 92 innings in 2016, Santiago has given up a rediculous 17 home runs and a .323 wOBA to right handers. While Napoli is more of a tournament play, I will have some cash game exposure as nobody else really jumps out. I am also going to be considering Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera in cash games and tournaments.

Adrian Gonzalez FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 12.76 DK - 9.7

The first base position is a fun one tonight as there are a few options to consider in both cash games and tournaments. Adrian Gonzalez is going to be our top option here as he is facing off with Tyler Chatwood in the hitter haven Coors Field. While Chatwood is not a terrible pitcher, he has struggled against lefties in Coors Field, as most do. Gonzalez, while slightly disappointing this season, has been rather good against righties with a .341 wOBA and a 116 wRC+. While Gonzalez is very expensive on DraftKings, he is much too cheap on FanDuel at only $3700.

John Jaso FD 3100 DK 2700
Opponent - ATL (Jenkins) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.76 DK - 9.16

If you are looking for a very safe cash game option, John Jaso is your guy. Jaso is one of the most consistent bats in the league against righties with a .342 wOBA to go along with a 32.6% hard contact rate and a 125 wRC+. The Pirates will be facing off with one of the worst pitchers in the league, Tyrell Jenkins. Against lefties, Jenkins has given up a putrid .372 wOBA that is supported by all of his baseline and peripheral stats. If you are looking for some safety and a lack os upside, Jaso is a great way to save some salary, especially on DraftKings at just $2700. Like I said, Jaso is more of a cash game play as he really lacks the home run power that the other first basemen have.

 

SECOND BASE

Brian Dozier FD 3800 DK 5100
Opponent - CLE (Clevinger) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.19 DK - 7.23

Second base is very bad on the early slate, which is leading me to the power guy that is going to be leading off for a very good offense. AKA Brian Dozier. Dozier and the Twins will be facing off with Michael Clevinger, a right handed youngster that has been horrible against righties for a few years in the minors and majors. With an unsustainable .444 wOBA, righties are obviously going to be able to take advantage of him until he gets accustomed to the major league pitching lifestyle. While Dozier is tough to play in cash games, there is nobody else I prefer, therefore, I don't really mind it. Dozier has as much power as anyone else at 2nd base as evident by his home run total and hard contact rate of 36% .

Jose Altuve FD 4000 DK 4800
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.17 DK - 9.68

Like I said, the pitcher position is very horrible. That is exactly why we are looking at 2 Houston Astros bats against our second favorite arm. Altuve has absolutely dominated left handed pitching over the last 3 seasons with a .364 wOBA and a 38.2% hard contact rate. Happ on the other hand, while very good, has given up some home runs and stolen bases to right handers. With the Crawford boxes in left field, I could certainly see Altuve slapping that into the short porch seats. While he is very expensive on both sites, I expect him to be very low owned which makes him a great tournament option.

Dustin Pedroia FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.48

The Red Sox are another offense that we are going to take a long hard look at here as they will be facing off with an inexperienced left hander in Ariel Miranda. Miranda, while decent in the minors, is going to struggle against righties without a a good changeup. While power is extremely limited in this ballpark, Pedroia obviously doesn't need to hit a home run to pay off his salary. With a .341 wOBA against lefties dating back to 2011, Pedroia is one of the most consistent bats in the game. While his price is way too high on DraftKings, I will definitely have a lot of cash game exposure on FanDuel.

 

SHORTSTOP

Jhonny Peralta FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.9

While this is the first Cardinals bat I have mentioned, they are in a terrific spot here against the left handed Brandon Finnegan. Vegas obviously agrees here as they have the highest run total (4.91) of anyone on the early slate. Peralta in particular, has hit lefties very well over the last few seasons with a .339 wOBA, 34% hard contact rate and a 23% line drive rate. We will touch on Brandon Finnegan later, but for now, just know that he is a horrible pitcher that is backed up by an even worse bullpen. While some may point to the bullpen numbers after the ASB, that is absolutely garbage. The pitchers are the same exact guys and there is no chance that I am buying that 10 different guys just got better over the course of a 3 day break.

Xander Bogaerts FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 11 DK - 8.83

Looking at another Red Sox bat here, we have Xander Bogaerts to start off the shortstop position. While Bogaerts has definitely over-performed to start the year, he has cemented himself at the top of the shortstop list in terms of both hitting and fielding. Like I just mentioned, Ariel Miranda has struggled mightily against righties in the minors and that is more than likely going to translate in the majors, until he fixes his pitching arsenal. Bogaerts on the other hand, has been terrific against left handers in 2016. In 84 at-bats, Bogaerts has sported a .379 wOBA and a 32% hard contact rate. The Red Sox are an offense you will want exposure to and Bogaerts is a great way to do just that.

Marcus Semien FD 3200 DK 3100
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA
FD - 8.46 DK - 6.73

Marcus Semien is going to be our Oakland Athletics bat here against the ever-aging Ricky Nolasco. Semien has been one of the most powerful shortstops in the league and has been just fine against righties. With 12 home runs and a .327 wOBA, Semien obviously has the upside. Nolasco on the other hand, has been worse against righties with a .352 wOBA and a 32.7% hard contact rate. While the ballpark is far from elite, Semien obviously has the power to hit it out anywhere as his home park is the Oakland Coliseum.

 

THIRD BASE

Jedd Gyorko FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 7.34 DK - 5.6

First of all, this is contingent on Gyorko being in the top 5 of the lineup, which I expect him to be. However, if he is in the bottom third of the lineup, I would rather go with a Nick Castellanos or Maikel Franco. However, Gyorko makes for a near must play if he is hitting 2nd against such a bad lefty and bullpen. Gyorko has been a notorious southpaw masher over the course of his career and that is evident by the .341 wOBA over the last few seasons. The Cardinals will be facing off with Brandon Finnegan, a left hander that has given up a .347 wOBA and 21 home runs to righties in just 89 innings. WOW, that is atrocious. With this game being play in hitter friendly Great American Ballpark, I expect the Cardinals to send a few out and Gyorko could easily be one of those guys.

Jung-ho Kang FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Jenkins) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.56

The Pirates are one of my favorite offenses on the day as they will be taking on an atrocious pitcher in Tyrell Jenkins. Jenkins has been bad over the course of his entire career and has actually been worse against righties over the past few seasons (minors and majors). In 17 innings this year, he has given up a putrid .390 wOBA. Kang on the other hand, has actually been better against righties over the course of his career and will look to take advantage of the reverse splits pitcher here. While I am not going to use my home runs prediction here, I would not at all be surprised if Kang gets a hold of one.

Alex Rodriguez FD 2700 DK 3100
Opponent - NYM (Colon) Park - @NYY
FD - 10 DK - 7.7

While it is very rare that I roster A-Rod anymore, this is the perfect match up to do it. The main problem Rodriguez has other than his age is the fact that he has trouble catching up to fastballs and pitches on the outside corner of the plate. Bartolo Colon doesn't posses the ability to do either and A-Rod should have no problem catching up with the sub 90 MPH flat fastball. While Rodriguez has undoubtedly been horrible, he has still exhibited the power and I can see him doing that one again tonight. As a note, make sure to confirm that he is in the lineup as he has not seen as much playing as normal lately.

 

OUTFIELD

Stephen Piscotty FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.88 DK - 8.52
Matt Holliday FD 3700 DK 4100
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.27

We are going to look at 2 outfield duos in the outfield for the early slate, with the first of them being Stephen Piscotty and Matt Holliday. While Piscotty is the guy I would choose if they were mutually exclusive, they aren't as you can easily play both. You could also add Thomas ham here if he is hitting leadoff, which it looks like he might. Both Hollidy and Piscotty have hit lefties to +.355 wOBA over the course of their respective careers. Like I mentioned, Brandon Finnegan is a very bad pitcher and is one that we need to take a ton of advantage with, and have a good opportunity to do so with this right handed heavy Cardinals team.

Miguel Sano FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - CLE (Clevinger) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.09 DK - 8.36
Max Kepler FD 3700 DK 5300
Opponent - CLE (Clevinger) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.02 DK - 7.18

Here we are going to look at our second duo in that of Miguel Sano and Max Kepler. While Kepler is having a tremendous season, let;s be a little realistic. Miguel Sano is still the better hitter and has a lot more power than Kepler currently has. That being said, both of these guys have a town of power against right handed pitching. Over the past season and a half, both of these guys have hit righties to a +.360 wOBA that is backed up in both of their cases. I Would recommend playing Sano if I had to pick 1 as his ownership will be way lower and he is a better hitter, it is as simple as that. As I mentioned, Clevinger is a youngster that has some learning to do. We will see if either of these guys can give him a lesson. Home run prediction - Miguel Sano.

Mike Trout FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @LAA
FD - 14.58 DK - 11.41

Mike Trout is coming in as my favorite hitter on the board for a multitude of reason. The first of which, and the most important, is the fact that he is going to go way overlooked with the game in Coors Field. When I can get a guy of Trout's caliber at less than 20%, I am going to do it almost every time in tournaments and cash games. Secondly, he is facing off with Jesse Hahn. While Hahn is not necessarily a bad pitcher, he doesn't fit the mold here as he tends to live in the bottom half of the strike zone, which is where Mike Trout absolutely demolishes baseballs. I am going to use my home runs prediction here as I expect Trout to send one of those low fastballs a very long long way.

Josh Reddick FD 3900 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 13.21 DK - 10.31

Josh Reddick immediately entered the Dodgers lineup and hit 4th, which is what I am expecting will happen against tonight. Tyler Chatwood, while a rather talented pitcher, is not good at all against righties at Coors Field, as most pitchers aren't. Reddick, however, has been a great hitter against righties over the last 3 years as evident by a .361 wOBA and a 34.1% hard contact rate. While the price is definitely a little pressing, I think he is worth it in this match up, especially on FanDuel at only $3900.

Starling Marte FD 3800 DK 5300
Opponent - ATL (Jenkins) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.55 DK - 9.09

Starling Marte is one of my favorite hitters on the day and I expect him to absolutely dominate Tyrell Jenkins tonight. Like I mentioned a few times, Jenkins is absolutely atrocious against both righties and lefties and will struggle mightily here against a Pirates team that can cause pitchers fits. While McCutchen has been extremely bad on the young season, he is still a very good hitter and I don't think anyone is going to really dispute that. If you are looking for an extremely talented hitter that is going to be way to low owned, Starling Marte is the guy to look at.

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