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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/7/16
Welcome back for another full day of daily fantasy baseball with DFSR. Wednesday brings us another split slate with four early and 11 evening games. Let's take a look at some top plays from our optimizer for each position.
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PITCHER
Early Slate
Drew Smyly FD 8100 DK 7800
Opponent - BAL (Bundy) Park - @TB
FD - 31.66 DK - 20.86
The pitching in the early slate is limited with just four games leaving us two options. Pay up for Thor in a tough matchup in Cincinnati or go with the value in the Orioles/Rays game. The projections heavily favor both value options today from a PTS/$ perspective. The game is a pickem right now but I favor Smyly as the Orioles have struggled against left handed pitching this season ranking 27th in wOBA(.295), 29th in wRC+(75) and dead last in Isolated Power(.103). Despite his short term struggles Smyly has been cruising recently limiting opponents to two earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts. I wouldn't trust him for cash games but on a four games slate I stick to tournaments where he has plenty of upside in the $8K range on both sites.
Evening Slate
David Price FD 10800 DK 13100
Opponent - SD (Cosart) Park - @SD
FD - 38.71 DK - 25.34
The evening slate gives us a few more options on the mound with David Price leading the way. You have to pay a pretty penny on DraftKings but he is very fairly priced on FanDuel where you get the best value tonight. While his K rate has dropped by nearly three strikeout per nine from the first half he has a lower ERA(4.34 to 3.21) and has vastly improved his HR/FB rate(15.2% to 8.3%). He gets a huge park upgrade going into Petco and a favorable matchup vs. the Padres who do hit better against left handed pitching but strikeout at a high 25.1% rate. He is safe in all formats.
Carlos Carrasco FD 10800 DK 12300
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @CLE
FD - 38.48 DK - 25.28
Since getting beat up by the Twins at the start of August Carrasco has been in excellent form. In those six starts he has pitched to 2.93 ERA and much better 1.95 xFIP with an elite 12.60 K/9 rate while only walking four batters. While he has allowed three or more earned runs in four of those starts all the numbers, including the high .345 BABIP, indicate even more positive regression. The Indians are -165 home favorites against a Houston team that sits middle of the pack in wOBA against right handed pitching but strikeout out 3rd most in the league at a 23.9% rate.
CATCHER
Early Slate
Stephen Vogt FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - LAA (Meyer) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.87
Vogt shows up as a top play at catcher on both sites when looking at the PTS/$ values. He is a hitter you target against righties as he has strong splits with an average 79 points higher with .318 wOBA and 101 wRC+ on the season. He has started to swing a hot bat recently as well with hits in six of his last eight games. The matchup is in his favor against young Alex Meyers who has pitched to a 5.99 xFIP in limited action. On a small slate he is a safe option in any format.
Evening Slate
Buster Posey FD 4100 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 14.8 DK - 11.42
You definitely aren't paying up for the recent form with Posey as he hasn't hit a home run since July. You are paying up for the opportunity of getting one of the best hitting catchers in baseball in Coors Field. Despite the lack of power this season he has still kept his batting average at .287 while getting on base at a .366 clip and scoring 72 runs. Posey has neutral handedness splits when looking at average but carries more power and against lefties with a .371 wOBA, 137 wRC+ and .189 ISO.
FIRST BASE
Early Slate
Jose Abreu FD 3400 DK 5400
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.84 DK - 9.07
Abreu has been on an absolute tear since over the last 30 days slashing .375/.413/.661 with nine home runs, 27 RBI and an elite 185 wRC+. He is in a great spot tonight to stay hot in a matchup against Anibal Sanchez who has been awful all year but even worse on the road with a 7.11 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .309 against him. The price has caught up on DraftKings limiting him to a GPP play tonight but in the mid $3K range onFanDuel he is in play in all formats.
Evening Slate
Adam Lind FD 2700 DK 2600
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.22
If you are attempting to pay up for one or both of the top pitchers tonight you are going to need a few punt plays to make it work. Adam Lind makes a great choice on both sites at a mid $2K price tag. I wouldn't exactly call him safe for cash games as a very streaky hitter but provides big power upside against right handed pitching with 17 home runs and a .205 ISO on the season. The matchup wreaks of the long ball as Griffin has struggled to keep the ball in the park giving up a home run in 12 of his last 13 starts with five of them being of the multi home run variety.
Eric Hosmer FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.86 DK - 9.29
If you are looking for a little more stability on the main slate tonight ride with Eric Hosmer. The average has dipped as he is hitting just .234 over the past 14 days but he is getting on base at a .362 clip and has added four home runs, 14 RBI and nine runs scored. He has also showed strong splits vs. right handed pitching pitching this season with a batting average 43 points higher and wOBA that 54 points higher. He and the Royals get a terrific matchup against struggling Kyle Gibson who has surrendered four or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts.
SECOND BASE
Early Slate
Wilmer Flores FD 3100 DK 3500
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.61 DK - 6.72
The second base position is ultra thin today on the short four game slate. I will take the savings with Flores and ride his hot streak in Great American Small Park. He is hot right now with hits in three straight including two doubles and is slashing .301/.351/.517 since the start of August. He gets the park upgrade and has added value when he hits in the top four of the lineup.
Evening Slate
Daniel Murphy FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.19 DK - 9.6
Murphy continues to assault major league pitching pushing his season slashing line to .340/.383/.593 with 25 home runs, 98 RBI and 82 runs scored. If it wasn't for Kris Bryant, Murphy would be a shoe in for the National League MVP award. His price is affordable on both sites and he provides one of the highest floors of any player, regardless of position, making him an excellent play in any format.
Dee Gordon FD 2400 DK 4100
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.08 DK - 8.74
He has really struggled since returning from his suspension hitting just .246 but is vastly under priced on FanDuel making him an excellent punt play for tournaments tonight. He still holds a ton of value as he continues to hit leadoff for the Marlins on a regular basis and if he can reach base has tremendous speed upside as well. He can be avoided on DraftKings at $4,100.
SHORTSTOP
Early Slate
Tim Anderson FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.68 DK - 8.6
Tim Anderson has really started to come in to his own in his rookie season as he has brought his average up to .287 as he has recorded hits in five straight and 11 of his last 12 games. He has been bounced around the lineup but for the most part has settled into the two hole in the White Sox lineup ahead of run producers in Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier. He is fairly priced on DraftKings but is another mis priced option on FanDuel under $3K making him a near must play on the small four game slate.
Evening Slate
Addison Russell FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.95
Javier Baez FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.64
The Cubs are big -160 favorites tonight and projected to score somewhere around five runs. Both batters qualify at shortstop on FanDuel where you will have to make a choice between them but on DraftKings with multiple position eligibility for Baez(2B/3B) you can play them together as a part of a stack. Russell would be the safe option if you were choosing between them as he hits higher in the lineup and gets more RBI opportunities(88 on the season). Baez has actually hit for the better average between the two and has provided added value with his speed. The matchup is in the Cubs favor today as they face Matt Garza, who despite pitching well over his last two starts has been awful this season with a 4.64 xFIP and low 6.25 K/9 rate.
THIRD BASE
Early Slate
Jose Reyes FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.18 DK - 8.14
The early slate today is loaded with value plays making it very feasible to play the small slate comfortably and still pay up for pitching. Reyes is another one of these value plays that hits leadoff who can provide a ton of speed upside when he gets on the base paths. He also provides a nice floor for cash games with a low 16.9% K rate and .331 OBP.
Evening Slate
Kris Bryant FD 4100 DK 5000
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIL
FD - 13.86 DK - 10.65
The National League MVP race is pretty much decided in early September with Kris Bryant putting up video game like numbers. Coming into Wednesday's action he has set career highs in home runs(36), runs scored(112), average(.302), OBP(.398), Slugging %(.575) and wRC+(158) to name a few with most of those numbers leading or in the top 10 across all of Major League Baseball. He gets a park upgrade going to Miller Park and a great matchup vs. Matt Garza. He is one of the players you are going to want to pay up for on Wednesday night.
Adrian Beltre FD 3400 DK 5000
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.37 DK - 8.71
The Rangers bats, especially the lefties, are in a great spot tonight vs. a struggling pitcher. The Mariners Ariel Miranda has allowed three or more earned runs in four straight starts while striking out 13 and walking 11 batters while pitching to a 5.69 xFIP. Beltre feasts off left handed pitching with a .421 wOBA, 164 wRC+ and .286 ISO and has been on a hot streak lately. Over the past 14 days he is slashing .333/.440/.738 with five home runs, 12 RBI and 16 runs scored. While I prefer Bryant on DraftKings at the same price I can see the merit in going Beltre on FanDuel and using the $700 savings to help pay up for pitching.
OUTFIELD
Early Slate
Justin Upton FD 2900 DK 4300
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.11 DK - 7.92
Upton is currently enjoying his best stretch of the 2016 season over the past two weeks. He has recorded a hit in three straight and 12 of his last 15 games including three doubles, eight home runs and an elite 226 wRC+ and .407 OBP. The price has adjusted accordingly on DraftKings making him a GPP option only but on FanDuel where he is under $3K he can be considered in all formats on the small four game slate.
Evening Slate
Bryce Harper FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @WSH
FD - 15.34 DK - 11.83
It's been awhile since I have been blessed with the chance to mention DFSR's most mentioned daily fantasy plays. Harper has made it easy to write about and play on a daily basis lately as he comes into Wednesday slashing .312/.400/.538 with 20 RBI and 20 runs scored since the beginning of August. He still hasn't got the power back with just three home runs in that time which is a big reason he still comes at a value on both sites. Hise floor and the ceiling are as big as any player in the league making him an elite play in any format tonight.
Carlos Gonzalez FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - SF (Suarez) Park - @COL
FD - 15.12 DK - 11.62
To cap off the article we are going to leave you with a couple options in Coors Field, one on each team, who rankvery high in our projections today. First up is Cargo who is putting together another fantastic season for the Rockies hitting over .300 for the first time since 2013 while adding another 25+ home run season. The upside is pretty obvious with his home run power and he also comes with a nice safety net for cash games with a .371 wOBA on the season.
Hunter Pence FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 13.2 DK - 10.4
The second option outfield option at Coors Field today comes from the Giants. Hunter Pence comes at a slight discount from Cargo tonight and while isn't quite as safe makes an excellent tournament with huge upside against the southpaw as the Giants get a very favorable park shift. The splits are very neutral when looking at just average but dig a little deeper and see that Pence has a .384 wOBA, 145 wRC+ and elite .294 ISO against left handed pitching this season. Do what you can to get at least one of these bats(Cargo or Pence), if not both, in your lineup tonight in a potential barn burner.
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FREE EBOOK
SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.
“”Was gonna star Ruseell, but now Simmons instead 2300 Love Matt Kemp too today. Was gonna go Montero but going cheap for pitching spend up elsewhere
P Clay Buchholz
C Yasmani Grandal
1B Anthony Rizzo
2B Brian Dozier
3B Kyle Seager
SS Corey Seager
OF Nelson Cruz
OF Matt Kemp
OF Justin Upton””\
Yesterday
Should have started Montero instead of Grandal.
Rizzi hit 2 HR’s can’t believe he didn’t hit again stil hit 1 Kyle Seager also hit one 31 points for him. Also suggested Montero too he hit one deep as well.
You guys should be checking with me instead. LOL 🙂
Also had Carlos Gonzalez as a AVOID according to Roto 200 AVE against Samardzija, been pitching better.
Also was high on BAL against Odorizzi, look at their numbers first off…
Machado 276 AVE 3 HR’s 10 RB’s but I webt with Seager who I thought was better play.
Davis 269 AVE 3 HR’s 4 RBI I started Rizzo instead.
Adam Jones 377 AVE 2 HR 4 RBI
You guys should def look at my lineup instead. I don’t undserstand how you guys can chjarge for subscription most night you guys completely miss on most picks tonight exhibit A, B,. & C. I started having success the last 2 weeks when I stop looking at these sites.
C
Montero
Posey
1B
Rizzi
Jose Abreu 529 AVE 2 HR
Freeman 406 AVE 4 HR’s 12 RB’s seems to have Strasburg number
2B
Cano
Zobrist
3B
Freeze 576 AVE 1 HR 6 RBI
Jung Ho Kang 429 AVE 1 Solo HR
SS
Alcides Escobar
Alex Gordon
Odubel Herrera
Hunter Pence
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
My big AVOID Kris Brytant 100 AVE don’t put him in your lineup
What pitchers do you plan to use today?
What is AVE? Where do you find these stats?
Avoid Lind too 157 AVE against A.J. Griffin
My lineup 9/7
P David Price
C Miguel Montero
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Ben Zobrist
3B Jung Ho Kang
SS Alcides Escobar
OF Alex Gordon
OF Odubel Herrera
OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Do yo play draftkings AP? And if u do who are the best teams to use in stacks and what hitters have the best match for home run upside?
I only use Fanduel. I don’t stack as much now unless very bad pitcher like Shields. Also the players in my lineup all have great numbers against their opposing pitchers. Every one has hit a HR against the pitcher their facing, except for Exscobar. Freeman has 4 HR’s against SS. Everyone else has 1 HR. I always look at hitters vs pitchers in every game I NEVER skip over team match up, but for some reason I skipped over Brewers vs Hammels. If I would have took 1 extra sec that;s all it takes I would have seen Lester ERA last 3 starts 7.77 & Braun had 400 AVE 4 against Hammell. If I would have had Braun & Montero in my lineup I would have placed 3rd. Yesterday was easyt to predict these batters.
Rizzo had 5 HR’s 600 AVE obviously a must start he hit 2 HR’s = 40 POINTS 15% OWNED
Braun 4 HR’s 407 AVE MUST START = 38 POINTS 2,9 Owned (Gotta be kidding me)
Kyle Seager 4 HR’s 400 AVE MUST START 31 POINTS 4.6 OWNED WOW
Machado 3 HR’s 276 AVE MUST START 38 PTS 4.2 OWNED
Dozier 4 HR’s 353 AVE he was the hottest hitter coming in MUST START 18,7 PTS
Davis 3 HR’s 269 AVE Not sure how many points he ended up with but I know he hit a HR than left the game.
Looking at those numbers how the hell could you guys not start these bats.
As far as today with the HR prediction Freeman has 4 against SS. But no one else has more than 1 HR against their opposing pitcher.
Yesterday was the easiest slate to predict EVER with all the damn success they have had against those pitchers. Today not so easy IMO def way more challenging not as predictable. It sucks that I finally figured this DFS baseball out with less than a month to go. If I added Braun & Montero I would have won $3000. Braun was soooooooooo obvious to 2.9 Owned why did I skip over the damn Brewer vs Hammell.
i like your HR and ave against opposing remarks, but you have no idea about ownership until slate starts so how can you really speak to what is obvious or not? guys like rizzo sure you can guess 20% or more, but braun 3% versus 13% im not sure how you could predict.
Thanks AP u sure know your stuff!!! One more question where do I get the batter vs pitcher numbers your giving me? & good luck on today!!!
Also back to yesterday again…
I missed on Lucroy he was at the bottom didn’t scroll down all the way he was 500 AVE 1 HR would have considered him as well. Grandal had zero hit against Miller. Note to myself not playing anyone facing a pitcher for the first time or if they don’t a hit against that pitcher. Still learning more & more lesson learned today
Scroll down all the way to the bottom and don’t skip any DAMN match up. Rizzo was at the bottom of the list and Lucroy was at the very bottom too I missed him though.
B vs. P stats are a useful tool SOMETIMES. They are, by no means something to strictly base your line up on. The guys at this site say they mean little or nothing which is also wrong. When using B vs. P, keep in mind that they do not show park factor, streak factor, nor are any of those stats available for juicy match-ups involving bad rookie pitchers like the Blue Jays have today (which expectedly went ignored on this site).
Google MLB.com probable pitching and click on “Last 5 years vs. ARI hitters” Pretty Cool!
Not starting Seager batting 188 vs A.J. Griffin, Kris Bryant my big AVOID batter an even 100 vs Garza. I Love Freeman & Montero SS ERA last 3 games 13. Freddie just seems to have his number. Just started using this a few days ago.
hey AP ….do you have direct contact info so i can get intouch on a regular basis?…………………………………….23
One of my worst line ups was when I started Max. There wasn’t enough left over for the rest of my linbeup. I like going value or the pitchers arounbd 9K
AP what site are you using to get your stats please
@Archer I think I was referring to average. On the road and trying to find the spot where AVE is
@AP We at DFSR do not believe BvP is a predictive stat. Small sample size over a larger time period. I don’t automatically fade hitters with bad BvP.
i use FanGraphs for my go to site for baseball stats. Also Baseball Reference and then a mix of ESPN, MLB.com and some others
BVP is useful sometimes and other times, well, not..for instance, last week Dozier was facing someone (can’t remember who) and was something like 1 for 32 vs. him. A LOT of people faded him based on BVP alone. He hit a home run, had 3 hits and a stolen base. Those that played him based on his performance since the AS break and the fact that the pitcher was a LH did well, those that did the BVP did not. I like it, I look at it, but it is by no means a bible you should utilize every night. Check Matt Carpenter’s BVP vs. Wily Peralta…then look at how he did last week vs him. It’s not predictive, but can be a useful guide.
Why would you post your line for everyone to see?
Thanks AP
I wonder how many people are going to run that lineup tonight??
I find it hard to believe anyone’s advice after they make the following statement, “It sucks that I finally figured this DFS baseball out with less than a month to go.” Math wins eventually.
Hey guys if your looking for some BvP stats you can try dailybaseballdata.com
Fair warning i have made lineups based on BvP not always a good idea
I only use BVP if there is a decent history between the players. My line is 20 at bats or more with low strike out rates in BVP match ups. I also use BVP in reverse. For instance, If a STAR player is hitting 1 for 20 with 0 , 2 strike outs at the most, against that day’s starter, I will put that player in line ups because with the low strike out rate against that starter tells me he is seeing the ball. He is just having bad luck. He is due for a couple of those balls he keeps hitting to drop in. Also compare over all hard % history against the league for both hitter and pitcher.
AP Montero not playing tonight who you got for Catcher
I;m far from a genius just average DFS’er don’t have an inside \. Just had a little luck the last couple days
Hey ap i tracked your picks lmfao. Quit wasting peoples time . how old are you? You lonely hack.
Lmao at AP’s picks. Straight hot trash. It’s a wonder why you come to this site to brag about winning the biggest prize you’ve ever gotten in dfs. Gtfo troll. Thanks dsfr for that Lind and Crawford pick. Won first place in gpp for first time in baseball. 26 pts higher than second!