Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/12/16


Welcome to Monday baseball! We have a 15 game full main slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!

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Carlos CarrascoCarlos Carrasco FD 10700 DK 12200
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 34.39 DK - 22.62

Carlos Carrasco is going to start us off here at pitcher, and he is always in consideration when he takes the mound. While he is usually just a strict tournament play, he makes for a tremendous play in both cash games and tournaments. He takes on a Chicago White Sox team that has sported a putrid .308 wOBA that is backed up by all of the possible peripherals and batted ball rates. Carrasco on the other hand, has been terrific against both left handers and right handers. Against righties, he has exhibited a .278 wOBA that is backed up by a 9.42 K/9 and a crazy 17.4% line drive rate. While the White Sox definitely have a few big power bats, they strikeout a ton and can run cold on frequent occasion. The game will be played in U.S. Cellular Field, which is definitely a hitters park. That being said, Carrasco can be one of the most dominating pitchers in the league and it won't matter what ballpark he is in.

Jeff SamardzijaJeff Samardzija FD 8100 DK 10600
Opponent - SD (Clemens) Park - @SF
FD - 35.69 DK - 23.95

We are going to take a look at Jeff Samardzija next, who will be taking on the San Diego Padres, who have been one of the worst teams in the league against right handers. In nearly 4000 at-bats, the Padres have sported a putrid .290 wOBA that is backed up by very bad peripherals and batted ball rates. Samardzija, however, has been extremely good against right handers with a .304 wOBA over the past 4 seasons. The game will take place in AT&T Park, which is one of the absolute best pitcher ballparks in the league. While he is a bit expensive on DraftKings, Shark is very cheap on FanDuel and makes for a tremendous play in all formats.

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Welington CastilloWelington Castillo FD 2900 DK 3800
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.59

Welington Castillo is going to start us off here at catcher, and he is very fairly priced around the industry. Castillo and the Diamondbacks will be taking on Tyler Anderson, a young southpaw that has struggled a bit against righties. While he has a decent wOBA, his 34.2% hard contact rate allowed and 23.6% line drive rate suggest that we will see some negative regression very soon. Castillo has been very good against lefties for about 3 seasons now and this year has been no different with a .342 wOBA against left handers. While Castillo is generally a tournament guy, I like him a lot in both cash games and tournaments. At only $2900 on FanDuel, it is going to be extremely difficult to not just plug him in.

Evan GattisEvan Gattis FD 2600 DK 4300
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.76

If you want to pivot to a guy that is a pure tournament option, take a look at Evan Gattis. Gattis and the Astros will be taking on Martin Perez, who is one of our favorite pitchers to pick on. Perez has given up a .353 wOBA to righties over the past couple seasons and there is no reason to think he will improve anytime soon. Gattis, while far from a pure hitter, has a ton of power and can always have the ever-elusive 2 homer game. While he is very expensive on DraftKings, he is only $2600 on FanDuel which puts him in play across the board in all formats, though I prefer Castillo in cash games. The catcher position is a rough one tonight and while a few guys will hit homers, a lot of them will bust.


Joey VottoJoey Votto FD 4000 DK 5100
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.54

This game between the Reds and Brewers is going to be interesting as neither of the pitchers are good, but neither are the offenses. One of them has to budge and I think it is the offenses. With the game being played in the Great American Ballpark, it will not take too much to get one out. Votto is going to be out top guy at the position and I expect him to have a very good game here. Votto has been one of the best hitters in the league against righties for about 6 years now and this season has been no different. Wily Peralta on the other hand, is absolutely atrocious against left handers. So far in 2016, Peralta has sported a .395 wOBA alongside a 36.4% hard contact rate. There is not too much to dislike here with Votto, and he is an easy pick for me in cash games and a few tournaments.

Hanley RamirezHanley Ramirez FD 3400 DK 5500
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.1 DK - 10.28

The Red Sox had a huge game yesterday after scoring 11 runs and hitting a bunch of homers, with 1 of those coming from HanRam's bat. Hanley has been very up and down this season, but has mashed left handers over the larger sample size. While Wade Miley hasn't been horrible this season, he has struggled against righties and the green monster should give him a fit. Since 2-13, Ramirez and Miley have combined for a .334 wOBA to go along with a 23.9% line drive rate. Fenway Park is only going to help matters here as the green monster is not too far from the plate. While Ramirez is very expensive on DraftKings, he is only $3400 on FanDuel, which makes him a tremendous play in both cash games and tournaments, especially if you are paying up for Carrasco.

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Dee GordonDee Gordon FD 2100 DK 4400
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.72 DK - 8.38

Dee Gordon and the Marlins are in a pretty nice spot here against Mike Foltynewicz, a right handed youngster that has been up and down all season, but has been consistently bad against left handers, While Dee Gordon hasn;t been the same guy since returning, he has been utilizing his speed more lately and that is what we are looking for. Gordon has sported d  .342 wOBA against righties over the last few years and he is only getting better at this point in his career. Foltynewicz on the other hand, has given up a .362 wOBA to lefties over the past 2 seasons. Though Turner Field is a pitcher ballpark, it doesn't really matter as a home run is the last thing we are looking for out of Dee Gordon.

Scooter GennettScooter Gennett FD 2900 DK 2900
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CIN


Scooter Gennett is one of my favorite low price pivots of the night, and I will likely have a ton of exposure in both cash games and tournaments. While Anthony DeSclafani is a decent pitcher, he struggles against lefties and especially struggles against lefties in the Great American Ballpark. Gennett has been very good against righties over the past few years as evident by the .342 wOBA he has possessed against them. Anthony "Disco" DeSclafani on the other hand, has given up a combined .322 wOBA against left handers in Great American Ballpark. At only $2900 on both sites, I will be getting exposure to him on both sites and all formats. While Dee Gordon will still be my highest owned guy, it is going to be very close with the Scooter.


Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 3600 DK 5100
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.85 DK - 10.31

We are going to take a look at another Red Sox guy here with Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts was one of the best hitters in the league for the first half of the season and while he has cooled down considerably, he is still one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball. Against lefties in particular, Bogaerts has sported a .372 wOBA in 2016 and his peripherals actually suggest that those numbers are accurate. Wade Miley is a guy I like to target with righties as he has a ton of issues with the long ball. The Red Sox are the perfect team to give him trouble as they have a ton of righties with both power and speed. If you are able to fit Bogaerts, I would recommend doing it. That being said, we are going to take a look at Carlos Correa next and he is in a pretttty good spot.

Carlos CorreaCarlos Correa FD 3700 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.71 DK - 9.4

The Astros are one of our top offenses of the night, and that is mostly due to the match up with Martin Perez. Like I mentioned, Perez is absolutely horrible against right handers. While he can sometime get away with it, Minute Maid Park has no sympathy and will only help out the hitters here. The Crawford boxes could be in for a show tonight, and I could see Correa contributing. Correa has demolished left handers since entering the majors with a .376 wOBA that is backed up by elite peripherals and batted ball rates. While he is very close with Bogaerts on my list, I think I prefer him in tournaments. If you play another Astros, that would push me on to Correa as well due to the positive correlation between them. Correa is nicely priced on both sites, though I think I like him more on DK as it seems like everyone is super expensive over there.


Kris BryantKris Bryant FD 4000 DK 4900
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @STL
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.72

Third base is pretty horrible tonight, even though we have a full 15 game slate on our hands. Therefore, I am going to go with the best hitter at the position against a below average pitcher. While some may not see Mike Leake as a below average pitcher, I surely do. He has given up a 1.42 HR/9 to righties, which is what I look for when rostering Kris Bryant. Bryant has been exceptional against right handed pitching this year with an almost .400 wOBA to go along with a +40% hard contact rate. Bryant is one of the best hitters in the league and it is never a bad idea to have him on your lineup. At only $4K on FanDuel, it will be tough to keep him out when there are no guys that I am afraid to fade.

Alex BregmanAlex Bregman FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.67

Yep, right back to the Astros. While Alex Bregman certainly started very slow, he has shown his worth in the past couple weeks and will likely only grow from here on out. The sample size is very small, but from what we know, he can hit lefties. He has held a .327 wOBA against southpaws, but his peripherals suggest that he is getting a bit unlucky, so I would say it sits around .345 or so. To beat a dead horse, Martin Perez is pitiful and we should look to take advantage of him with right handers every time he takes the mound, especially in an extreme hitter park. While Bryant is still my favorite overall play at 3rd, I prefer Bregman if you are stacking the Astros or playing someone that is next ho him in the batting order.


Carlos GonzalezCarlos Gonzalez FD 4000 DK 4800
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.99 DK - 9.98
David DahlDavid Dahl FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.61 DK - 9.66

We are going to start off here with a duo in Carlos Gonzalez and David Dahl. While these are the first Rockies bat(s) mentioned, they make for a tremendous tournament stack in tournaments against Shelby Miller. Though this may be a surprise to some, Shelby Miller is one of the worst pitcher son this slate. He has given up a nearly .380 wOBA to lefties over the past 2 seasons and has been sent down to the minors numerous times for his struggles with lefties. Both CarGo and Dahl have sported +.360 wOBA's against right handers on the season. The game will take place in Chase Field, which is the 2nd best ballpark in the league for left handed power. While I certainly prefer Gonzalez, the price reflects that. With pricing in consideration, I still prefer CarGo, but absolutely love the combo in the outfield.

Mookie BettsMookie Betts FD 4100 DK 5000
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.27 DK - 11.83

Yep, we really like the Red Sox. Mookie Betts is one of my favorite hitters in the league to roster as he rarely kills you and almost always walks away with some kind of production. He will likely do more of the same here against Wade Miley, who as I mentioned, struggles against right handed batters. Betts has demolished left handers since 2015 with a .364 wOBA that is backed up by numerous peripherals and batted ball stats. Though he is pretty expensive across the boars, I think he goes a bit under owned tonight and you should be able to take advantage of that across the board. The Astros and Red Sox are our 2 favorite offenses, with the edge going to the Astros.

George SpringerGeorge Springer FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.6 DK - 9.96

I promise, this is the last Houston Astros bat. Springer is a little too cheap for me here and I am going to have a ton of exposure. At only $3800 on FanDuel, it is going to be difficult for me to keep him out of any lineups. Springer has a very rare speed/power combo and usually shows that off against left handers. Since 2015, Springer has sported a .364 wOBA against lefties and there is no sign of him slowing down or being lucky. While he is a bit too expensive for my taste on DK, he is right below all of the elite guys on FD, which puts him firmly in play for both cash games and tournaments. The Astros are a team that you will want exposure to and Springer is a great way to do that.

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image sources

  • Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59): By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

7 Visitor Comments

  1. foltynewic pitch good his last few games haven’t he. 4-0 or correct me please but you’re right he do have weakness vs lefties. hopefully he keep playing good I think I’m rolling with him tonight.

  2. desclani is not pitching is he I thought it was Sampson for cin….correct me if wrong please

  3. I know it’s toward the end of baseball season but Please add a slates filter to the MLB lineup tool like you have done on the NFL tool. It helps so much when lineup lock is 2 minutes away and the page refreshes and you have to go in and select each game you want. Slates Filter!!!

    • Great post, Derek. I’ve been thinking the same all season.

  4. My issue with the analysis here is that >90% of the players highlighted are high priced. Those players are almost always guaranteed some production, as the reason they are priced the way they are on the sites is because they are the ones expected to produce.

    This article would be much more worthy of being linked if you guys focused on players that are under a certain $$ threshold that the average user does not realize has an advantageous matchup.

  5. They do not have that ability Lester or they would. Do your own research, I promise it will pay off immediately if you do it right.

  6. Seems pretty easy. Just run daily projections against the season per game projection and see where the outliers are. At the least there should be a few names under, say $4K on draftkings, that stand out as having an advantageous matchup based on handedness, park factors, wOBA, splits, etc.

    My point is writing a paragraph about how a guy has a good matchup is pointless if that matchup is reflected in the player cost.

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