Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/15/16
Welcome to Thursday baseball! We have an 8 game main slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!
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Pitcher is absolutely horrible tonight. Between the lack of games and the scarcity in those games, it has to be one of the worst slates of the year for pitcher. That being said, there is definitely a few guys that you can consider in cash games and tournaments, and the first of which is Johnny Cueto. Cueto is by far the best pitcher on this slate, and it isn't remotely close. Cueto is stellar against both righties and lefties with a .286 wOBA, which is in the top 5% of starting pitchers. The Giants and Cueto will be taking on the St. Louis Cardinals, who is a pretty average team against righties. While the Cards can hit righties pretty good, they can strike out a lot and tend to go cold very frequently. While I am not in love with this match up, I am willing to put my trust into the most talented guy on the slate, which happen to be Johnny Cueto. He is my top overall option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he is in play on both sites.
Like I said, the pitcher position is really bad. After Cueto, everyone else is just a tournament flier with a lot of upside and a lot more risk. Archie Bradley is definitely one of those guys. With a high K rate, he has the upside to go out and K 10 batters in any start. On the contrary, he gives up a lot of hard contact and gives up a ton of BB when off, which brings his floor to the table. To be clear, do not use Archie Bradley in your cash games. He is very cheap on both sites an in tournaments, there is no reason no to do it. The ballpark is bad, but Bradley is used to it and should be able to manage against a Dodgers team that doesn't have too much power. The Dodgers don;t worry me too much as they K a lot and only occasionally show off the power stroke.
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I am going to give you fair warning. You are about to see A LOT of Chicago Cubs. If you have a vendetta against the Cubs, stop reading now. The first guy we are going to look at is Willson Contreras. Contreras has entered into the majors and has had immediate success against both lefties and righties. Against righties in particular, Contreras has sported a .342 wOBA that is completely supported by his peripherals. I will touch on Nelson in a bit, but just know that he is a right hander that struggles mightily on the road, and gives up a ton of home runs. Contreras makes for a great play in all formats across the board, though he is $1100 more on DraftKings, so make sure to take that into consideration. As a note, make sure he is in the lineup as Montero/Ross will start on occasion. If Contreras is out, I am a fan of either guy who steps up and plays catcher.
Stephen Vogt FD 3000 DK 3300
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 9.16 DK - 7.11
Stephen Vogt is probably the catcher that I have rostered the most this year. No, he isn't a great hitter, but he sits in the middle of a pretty good lineup and is very affordable. Vogt does hit righties pretty well as evident by his ,321 wOBA over the past 2 seasons. Volquez on the other hand, has been pretty bad this year and has given up a 4.21 xFIP to left handers. While the ballpark will basically make sure that Vogt doesn't hit a home run, we don;t need that at $3K. We need a base hit or two and an RBI. I am willing to take that chance in cash games, but will likely throw a more powerful guy like Contreras into my tournament lineups.
Anthony Rizzo FD 3600 DK 5600
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.4 DK - 10.24
Rizzo had an absolutely ridiculous game yesterday and ended up with 2 home runs and almost 45 FanDuel points. While I am not counting on anything near that again, I am expecting a good quality game. Rizzo is a tremendous guy to roster as every single at-bat is a good one and you will never see him go up there and just give up after 2 strikes. He is productive nearly every night and will likely find a way to get some fantasy points tonight. Whether it's a homer, a double or a few RBI's, I am confident that it will happen. I am a huge fan of Rizzo is both cash games and tournaments, though I like him a lot more on FD because of his insane price on DraftKings. That being said, there is something to be said for playing him on DraftKings. The high price will move people on to other guys, which will leave Rizzo way too low owned.
Edwin Encarnacion FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - LAA (Wright) Park - @LAA
FD - 13.45 DK - 10.07
Edwin Encarnacion has been flying under the radar a bit lately, but we all know who he is. Encarnacion is one of the most powerful guys in the league and will be taking on Daniel Wright, a right handed youngster that has struggled mightily against right handers. In his major league career, Wright has given up a .466 wOBA that is backed up by a high hard contact rate and a very low K/9. While this ballpark wont help Encarnacion out, he has the raw power to hit a homer anywhere, let alone Angels Stadium. While Rizzo is by far my favorite option at 1st, Encarnacion is not too far out, especially for tournaments.
Logan Forsythe FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BAL
FD - 8.42 DK - 6.72
Logan Forsythe is going to lead us off at 2nd base, and will be taking on Yovani Gallardo, who is one of the worst pitchers on the slate. The Tampa Bay Rays are moving into Baltimore and will therefore have the park boost going from Tropicana Field to Camden Yards. That is a huge deal for guys like Forsythe as he has power, but not the type of power to consistently produce in a park like Tropicana. Gallardo has struggled against righties dating back to 2014, with a .354 wOBA that is supported by any peripheral and batted ball rate you can think of. While Forsythe is better against lefties, he is very good against righties, I am a big fan of Forsythe in both cash games and tournaments, though I prefer him in tournaments as I would rather play the upcoming guy in cash games, and he is cheaper on both sites.
Ben Zobrist FD 2900 DK 4500
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.2 DK - 7.91
Wait, are you surprised? We have a short slate on our hands and the Cubs are our favorite offense of the slate. They are the most talented and take on a guy that struggled mightily on the road. Jimmy Nelson is a right handed average pitcher, but has had a few big weak spots. In 2016, Nelson has given up a .344 wOBA to both lefties and righties, which is absolutely pitiful for a starting pitcher. On the road, he has given up a .367 wOBA that is supported by a ton of different peripherals and batted ball rates. Zobrist, like Rizzo, i s a guy you can count on to go have a tough at-bat in any situation, and will almost always find a way to get involved in one way or another. Like the rest of the Cubs, he is cheap on FanDuel and way overpriced on DK, so use that info to decide where you will play him.
Corey Seager FD 4100 DK 5400
Opponent - ARI (Bradley) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.58
Yes, I am recommending both Corey Seager and Archie Bradley. Corey Seager is another young guy that has been absolutely dominant on the season. He is walking away with the rookie of the year trophy and will look to close the year off on a good foot. He will be taking on Archie Bradley tonight, who has definitely had his fair share of troubles against left handers. Seager on the other hand, has sported nearly a .400 wOBA against righties and there is no doubt whether or not is it legitimate. He is also playing in Chase Field, which is the 2nd best park in the league for home runs, and is a humongous upgrade from the spacious Dodgers Stadium. While he is expensive, he will be low owned and has as much upside as anyone not named Rizzo or Bryant.
Orlando Arcia FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - CHC (Montgomery) Park - @CHC
FD - 4.93 DK - 4.22
Mike Montgomery is not that good. He is going to give up some runs and they have to come from somewhere. I expect that somewhere to be Orlando Arcia. Arcia has shown his power and hitting prowess since entering the majors about a moth and a half ago. Montgomery, a left, has struggled against right handers and I expect more of the same tonight. Wrigley is a park that is heavily influenced by wind speed and direction, so make sure you pay attention to both of those key factors. While I obviously prefer Seager across the board, Arcia is very cheap and offers salary relief if you need it. While cheap on both sites, I prefer him on FanDuel as there are some better priced guys over on DK.
Kris Bryant FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.37 DK - 10.27
Kris Bryant is basically a placeholder in the 3rd base spot for the picks article each day. Bryant virtually has the NL MVP trophy locked up, but definitely has to keep producing to be sure he gets it. Bryant, while very young, is still one of the best hitters in the league and actually hits righties better than he does left handers. Bryant is actually pretty affordable on both sites, and I will likely have him in 100% of my lineups. I am going to call the homer here and this is one that I am pretty confident in. The Cubs are a team that you will want exposure to and Kris Bryant is a great way to do so at an affordable price.
Manny Machado FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.82 DK - 9.28
Manny Machado, like Kris Bryant, is one of the best players in the league, and is under 26. While Machado doesn't have the hitting prowess of a guy like Bryant, he is very consistent and can score fantasy points in so many different ways. Whether he hits a home run, steals a base or a hits a couple doubles, Machado will usually find a way to coup some points. Blake Snell, who is a young prospect, has struggled against righties with a . 337 wOBA that is backed up by a strong set of peripherals and batted ball rates, While I will likely have 100% exposure to Kris Bryant, Machado is the only other guy I would consider playing outside of him. Camden Yards is one of the best parks in the league for tight handed power and I look forward to Machado taking advantage of that. It ranked 3rd over the last 2 seasons for right handed power, and Machado certainlt contributed to that number with his numbers since his rookie year.
Michael Saunders FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - LAA (Wright) Park - @LAA
FD - 11.56 DK - 8.89
Michael Saunders is going to start us off here in the outfield. I surely could of thrown Jose Bautista here as well, but I am sure you know who that is and will figure out that he is a good player. Saunders is a little less known, but is a very good hitters, especially against righties. While I mentioned how bad Wright was against righties, he is just as bad against left handers. He has sported nearly a .400 wOBA against left handers and I don;t think that will change until he gets some more MLB experience under his belt. While home runs are nice, Saunders in not reliant on his power swing and can score points in so many different ways. I am a fan of him on both sites, though I prefer him on FD due to his price and style of play.
We are going to look at a few more Orioles here and like I mentioned, they are another of our favorite offenses on the slate along with the Cubs and Blue Jays. Both Trumbo and Adam Jones have sported +.370 wOBA's against lefties dating back to 2014, and I don;t see why that would change anytime soon. Both guys are in there prime and winging the bat better than ever. Blake Snell, like mentioned, has been decent against righties, but has struggled with the long ball. If I hadn't already used my homer pick of the night on Bryant, I would use it here on Mark Trumbo. While both guys are extremely low priced on FanDuel, they are a bit expensive on DraftKings. On DK, I will likely limit my exposure to tournaments. However, on FanDuel, I am willing to play both of them in both cash games and tournaments.
Mike Trout FD 4200 DK 5000
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @LAA
FD - 12.69 DK - 10.06
Mike Trout is really good at baseball. Just to let you know. He is a guy you can literally play against any pitcher, as he will always have a good chance to produce. That being said, he is not taking on any pitcher, he is taking on J.A. Happ. J.A Happ is not very good at baseball. He is a guy that I have picked on for a long time and have been very successful doing so. Trout is on a different level and will have the advantage over Happ in any count/situation that may come up. Happ tends to pitch lower in the zone, which is typically good, but Trout absolutely rakes the bottom of the zone and if he gets a low fastball tonight, you can kiss it goodbye. While he is extremely expensive on both DK and FD, he will be way too low owned and makes for a great play across the board. While I do prefer the 2 guys listed above, it is not by much.
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