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    Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    09/19/2016
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FantasyAces  - TOUR Championship

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    Want to see how more analysis and information on building lineups for The TOUR Championship? Chris has his targets and cheatsheet for only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces. Just scroll to the bottom of the picks. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

    TOUR Championship

    East Lake Golf Club - Atlanta, GA

    Par 70 - 7,307 Yards

    The 2016 PGA Tour season will come to a close this weekend following the TOUR Championship from East Lake Golf Club. After three tournaments and five weeks of playoffs it all comes down to 30 golfers vying for the $10,000,000 prize and FedEx Cup Championship. The Top 5 golfers(Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Jason Day, Paul Casey) will control their own destinies and take home the FedEx Cup with a win. All 30 golfers have a shot to win with about a million possible scenarios. If you want to check them out and dig deeper check them out HERE.

    With just 30 golfers in the field this week I will be and I recommend to lower your exposure to this DFS event. There will be a ton of overlapping lineups with a lot of cash being split. The good news is the off season for golf is very short with the 2016/17 regular season kicking off two weeks after the Ryder Cup at the Safeway Open. If you are playing multiple lineups this week a great way to separate yourself in the larger field tournies is too leave some salary on the table. I normally do about 20 lineups in my GPP's I enter and this week will do just five with a core four or five golfers and a few fill ins. I will be once again simplifying my model which has worked great in the closing stretch of the season. I will be weighting Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Approach the most with Par 4 & 5 Scoring and BoB% right there as well.

    If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with MLB talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's). I will also be joining Doug on the Wednesday Podcast to discuss the tournament each week. I am always available on Twitter as well(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

     

     

    High End Targets ($9,000+)

    Dustin Johnson
    Vegas Odds - 5/1
    Draftkings - $11,700
    FantasyAces - $

    Sticking with my original pick to win it all. He doesn't rank #1 in my model this week dies ot the missed cut at the PGA Championship but he is peaking once again during the playoffs. He is coming off a win at the BMW Championship, T8 at the Deutsche Bank and T18 at the Barclays. He ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Approach while sitting 1st in Par 4 Scoring and 4th in Par 5 Scoring and leads the Tour in BoB%. His putting is also looking spot on as he lead the tourny in Strokes Gained: Putting last week and ranks 30th overall this season. I will have DJ in at least four of my five lineups this week.

     

     

    Adam Scott
    Vegas Odds - 11/1
    Draftkings - $10,100
    FantasyAces - $

    Without picking up a win in the playoffs, Adam Scott could very well be one of the hottest players coming into the Tour Championship. He has finished each of the first three events with a 4th place finish and if not for his below average putting could have at least a win or two. He won the Tour Championship here at East Lake back in 2006 before the FedEx Cup playoffs came along and has finished Top 10 in four of his nine appearances. Looking at the stats he ranks 11th in SG: OTT, 1st in SG: APP, 1st in Proximity, 10th and 13th in Par 4 & 5 Scoring and 10th in BoB% on the season. If you want to go more balanced this week starting your lineup with Scott is a great way to go.

     

     

    Jordan Spieth
    Vegas Odds - 9/1
    Draftkings - $10,600
    FantasyAces - $

    While Spieth hasn't matched his five win season from a year ago he still has two victories this season and sits in a decent spot to once again take home the FedEx Cup. He doesn't control his own destiny but needs a win and Johnson and Reed to finish third or worse. Not out of the question at all. He is the defending champion here where he was the only player to shoot all four rounds under par and won by four strokes over Danny Lee, Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson. He ranks 2nd in my stats model behind DJ highlighted by a rank of 2nd in SG: Putting, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 4th in BoB% and 5th in Scrambling. Spieth would love nothing more than to come out and win back to back FedEx Cup titles while shutting up the haters.

     

    Also Consider - Paul Casey

     

     

    Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

    Matt Kuchar
    Vegas Odds - 28/1
    Draftkings - $8,200
    FantasyAces - $

    Kuchar is an excellent value in the low $8K range this week. This will be his 7th straight Tour Championship and he comes back with two previous Top 10 finishes including a T10 last year. While he hasn't shown us winning upside in a couple years now he is one of the most consistent players on Tour and looks to be a lock for a Top 10 this week which is great as we are going to need the winner and one or two Top 5 's and the rest of our lineup in the Top 10.....at least. Looking at Kuchar statistically he is an excellent putter(21st in SG:P), elite on Par 4's(ranked 5th) and also makes a ton of birdies as he ranks 14th in BoB% for the season.

     

    J.B. Holmes
    Vegas Odds - 34/1
    Draftkings - $7,400
    FantasyAces - $

    Holmes is my GPP play of the week for the TOUR Championship. He is very inconsistent due to his very poor driving accuracy(ranked 180th) but bombs it(ranked 2nd in Driv Dist) of the tee and can make a ton of birdies and rack up DraftKings points in a hurry(ranked 7th in BoB%). He was going through a bad stretch leading up to the playoffs missing three straight cuts but is trending in the right direction in the post season with a T41 at the Barclays, T33 at teh Deutsche Bank and T4 at the BMW Championship. Look for Holmes to finish inside the Top 10 in DraftKings points this week.

     

    Also Consider - Brandt Snedeker

     

    Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

    Jason Dufner
    Vegas Odds -
    Draftkings - $
    FantasyAces - $

    The bottom tier is very small this week but there is two rookies still battling it out for the Rookie of the Year honors. Both Grillo and Si Woo Kim have wins in 2016 with Kim leading with four Top 10's to Grillo's two but has played nine more events. I lean Grillo this week and for the award as he has made 88% of his cuts this year to Kim's 67%. Another area that stands out to me is the long iron game where Grillo ranks 32nd from both 175-200 and 200+ yards while Kim ranks 79th and 134th. Grillo also holds the edge in BoB% ranked 33rd. He has shown us all season that he belongs and can perform on a stage with the best players in the world. Watch for him to do it one more week and close out the season strong.

     

    Also Consider - Kevin Na

     

    TOUR Championship Update Thread

     


     


    Want to see how more analysis and information on building lineups for The TOUR Championship? Chris has his targets and cheatsheet for only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces. Fill out the form below or Purchase Through PayPal.

    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.

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