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Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 10 11/13/16
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Aaron Rodgers FD 9000 DK 7600
Proj Points FD - 21.8 DK - 22.46
He continues to do Aaron Rodgers-y things week in and week out and has another plus matchup for Week 10. Tennessee ranks 27th in the league in passing defense DVOA and have been torched by guys like Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck in two of the last three weeks. Rodgers is coming off another fantastic fantasy week even though he did see a slight dip in his efficiency and completion percentage. But he made up for it in the passing touchdowns and scrambling for 43 yards. It’s that latter piece which puts him in consideration week in and week out. Combine 3-4 points on the ground with heavy passing volume thanks to the Green Bay style of offense and you have a high floor/ high ceiling QB. Will again be tough to get away from him in cash game especially considering the Packers don’t have much of a ground game to fall back on.
Joe Flacco FD 7500 DK 6200
Proj Points FD - 18.9 DK - 19.77
Don’t want to give you just the expensive guys and call it a day. That feels a bit gross. So I submit one Mr. Joe Flacco. He’s far from a safe quarterback and the completion percentage tends to be all over the place. But he’s got a choice matchup against the Browns who rank dead last in the league in DVOA against the pass and have torched all season long through the air. It’s a great time to buy Flacco on the cheaper side (especially on DK). In Week 2 Flacco threw for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns against these Browns in his second best fantasy performance of the season. It makes sense considering Cleveland’s struggles on the defensive side of things.
Tom Brady FD 8300 DK 7400
Proj Points FD - 19.67 DK - 20.47
I am not sure I've ever recommended a quarterback against the Seahawks before, but I think there's actually a lot to like here. First of all, this isn't the same Seahawks defense that we're used to, at least when it comes to defending the past. They've been perfectly average in terms of yards per attempt allowed (7.0), and have played a very favorable schedule when it comes to the passers they've faced. They're still a below average match-up for sure, but we're getting Tom Terrific at a discount to his normal prices (and to Aaron Rodgers), which is most of what makes him work here. For his part, Brady has been electric since returning from suspension, scoring 27 or more FanDuel fantasy points in three of his four starts this year. Vegas sees what we're seeing as well - the Pats have the 2nd highest implied total of the week at 28.25. Brady seems like a reasonable gamble in any format quite frankly.
David Johnson FD 9400 DK 8400
Proj Points FD - 23.85 DK - 25.92
Last week the New Orleans running back tandem of Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower piled on agains the 49ers and combined for over 240 yards on the ground thanks to 38 carries. The Saints were happy to just feed the ground game because San Fran had no real plans on stopping them. Sure a big run by Ingram inflates those numbers some but this is a 49er squad ranking out as one of the worst in the league against the run this season. David Johnson as a big favorite going in stands to be the clear chalk play at running back this week. Sure he’s expensive and is only a week removed from a 10 carry performance against the Panthers. But the Cardinals fell well behind early in that game and were forced to play catch up. That doesn’t stand to be the case this week. Johnson’s use out of the backfield on the ground and in the pass game is at elite levels and though he’s expensive this seems like a case of very high floor. I’m willing to pay up because of the matchup and potential game script.
Jay Ajayi FD 7800 DK 7000
Proj Points FD - 17.68 DK - 18.04
As we discussed on our Week 9 NFL Recap Podcast, Ajayi has entered the realm of safe volume running backs. It came somewhat out of nowhere a few weeks ago, but Miami is all in on him dominating the touches out of the backfield and he was able to produce a 24/111/1 line against a stout Jets run defense last week and also saw three receptions in the passing game. San Diego’s been significantly worse against the run this season, ranking 20th in the DVOA and you can expect to see Ajayi’s number called a bunch this week. Sure the price has ticked up because of the week-over-week production but it hasn’t truly reached it’s true number yet. Don’t let the salary climb effect your thinking here. He’s still a cash game play because of how Miami is using him exclusively in the run game.
Le'Veon Bell FD 8100 DK 7700
Proj Points FD - 21.49 DK - 24.55
This is in line with the Brady pick. Bell is now priced at a steep discount to where he normally is priced when things are clicking, largely thanks to concerns about Big Ben's health. While Roethlisberger's bum knee can't be called a good thing for anyone on the Steelers, it should be far from a disaster for Bell's production. He didn't get his usually number of carries thanks to a terrible game script against a tough Ravens defense, but he still saw 9 targets and 23 touches total. That's not the high 20s/low 30s we were hoping for, but it's certainly not awful. Dallas plays a slow pace, yes, but they've allowed the 12th highest yards per carry of any team in the NFL this season. There's some chance that the Steelers try to out-control Dallas' control offense, and Bell should play a huge role there. I suspect this will be his lowest price of the season going forward.
Antonio Brown FD 8600 DK 8900
Proj Points FD - 18.55 DK - 22.51
It was looking a bitch dicey at the end of the first half last week when Brown had only one catch on one target. Actually, dicey is the wrong word for it. I was downright terrified. But he pulled it together in the second half with the Steelers in catchup mode and finished with a more AB-like line of 7/85/1. It wasn't lighting the world on fire, but it was all done basically in one half of football (if you find solace in that sort of thing). With Big Ben getting healthier Brown is still an elite, upper tier WR1 who's seen his price dip after a couple of weeks with Ben on the shelf. Bot a fantastic matchup against a good Dallas D but the price is too cheap here.
Stefon Diggs FD 6700 DK 6200
Proj Points FD - 17.49 DK - 21.02
It’s tough to do less with 13 catches in one game but that’s what happened with Diggs last week. He hauled in 13 balls for a mere 80 yards. His game plan was run 6 yards, catch the ball and get tackled. But for PPR that kind of production is money and he more than paid value on DraftKings. With a moderate shift in overall game plan for the Vikings in Bradford throwing the ball more (40 attempts or more in two of the last three weeks) Diggs as the WR1 possession/ move the chains receiver does provide a solid floor. He wasn’t targeted in the red zone which may limit his ceiling but he’s the clear volume receiver in Minny right now. He’ll likely get Josh Norman this week (though the Skins have been somewhat hesitant to shadow that way). Diggs is still a solid price on both sites.
Tyrell Williams FD 5900 DK 5700
Proj Points FD - 13.47 DK - 15.68
Two of his last three weeks have been excellent on these prices. Against the Falcons he went 7/140 and last week against the Titans it was a 6/65/1 game. The hiccup in between against Denver (one catch for four yards) appears to have been more injury-related as he missed a bunch of snaps early in the game. I'm almost willing to wipe that one away considering he came back strong last week. Philip Rivers will spread the ball around and works out plus matchups in the pass game. That can lead to secondary receivers hitting value and guys like Williams missing. But that's somewhat built into the price here. I like the FD price a lot even in the half point PPR.
Lance Kendricks FD 4500 DK 3000
Proj Points FD - 11.93 DK - 15
Kendricks gets top billing at the tight end position thanks to his combination of ridiculously low price and reasonably high floor. He's garnered a 14% or higher target percentage in each of the last 3 weeks, including a season high of 22% last week. He's now received 29 targets over the last 3 weeks, a rate that would land him in the top 10 in the NFL for any position if prorated over the course of an entire season. It's impossible to know for sure when trying to project the performance of relative unknown quantities like Kendricks, but it sure looks like he's something near match-up proof on the minimum salary right now.
Jordan Reed FD 7000 DK 6200
Proj Points FD - 15.47 DK - 19.33
Jordan Reed exploded back into his role as Washington's premier pass catcher against the Bengals. He played every snap, drew 13 targets, and converted those into 9 catches, 99 yards, and a touchdown. Simply elite production and opportunity, and frankly looks sustainable going forward. Before missing time with his concussion, Reed was touching double digit targets regularly, and being featured as the Redskins' primary end-zone target. Minnesota is no easy match-up for sure, but they've shown recently that they won't wind up being a reincarnation of the '85 Bears either. I'm not sure you can call Reed safer than Kendricks, but with WR1 upside at $7,200 and $6,200 he's absolutely worth a look for big tournaments on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS
The Arizona Cardinals vs. the San Francisco 49ers
So much to love about this one. The 49ers have by far the lowest implied total of the week at 17.5, and for good reason. First of all, they generally suck. Second of all - the Cardinals' defense has underratedly allowed the fewest yards per game and the 4th fewest total points per game this season. They're a top 10 defense for sacks, a top 5 defense for picks, and they're facing a quarterback that has a proven track record of making big mistakes. The Cards seem like a great cash game play with serious tournament upside as well.
The Baltimore Ravens vs. the Cleveland Browns
Another solid option at a similar price range. Baltimore's a little expensive at $5,100 on FanDuel, but Vegas sees the Browns as narrowly outscoring the 49ers in the race for the lowest overall total of the week. The Ravens were firing on all cylinders against the Steelers last week, and will get a huge break against a Cleveland team that's scored the 4th fewest points per game of any team this season. They're a little less erratic with Kessler at the helm, but mostly because they just don't trust him to do very much. I don't think the Ravens have huge upside here mostly due the Browns general lack of risk taking, but they certainly seem solid here.
Some upside plays: The Texans vs. the the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Vikings vs. the Redskins.
Again, you can grab a free trial of our NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users crush it this daily fantasy NFL season.
You can grab a go test it out yourself.
- CHIEFS-PACKERS: (AP Foto/Mike Roemer)