Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/19/16
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We have a pretty short slate here, so we can't be too picky about who our top options are at each position. Kemba and the Hornets are coming off of a back to back, so that does dampen things a little bit. So far this season, the Pelicans have given up the 7th most fantasy points to point guards at 45 per game. While Holiday coming back may change that, he wasn't great on defense last season anyway. Kemba has been a much different player this year, so I would throw out any preconceived notions you may have from watching him in the past. Both of these teams are on a back to back, so neither team has a fatigue advantage. Walker is my favorite option at the position, and I like him in cash games as well as touraments.
We are dealing with a lot of teams on back to backs tonight, so it may just be something we are forced to ignore. The season is young and these guys should be able to sport big minutes for now. Smart did get bruised up last night, so keep an eye on his status as the day progresses. The Pistons have given up the 13th most raw points to point guards, along with the 3rd most rebounds. Both of these guys can rack up the peripherals, which only increases there ceiling. I am fine with both of these guys across the board, though I would prefer Smart in cash games and Thomas in GPP's.
Elfrid Payton FD - $5800 DK - $5500
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.76 DK - 30.94
Elfrid Payton is a guy who is very difficult to peg correctly. He can go from a 3 point fantasy game to a 57 point game and right back to another 3, with no blink of an eye. For that reason, he is a tournament play and I will not be touching him in cash games. The Mavericks are an extremely slow team right now, but that could change if the Magic push the ball on the weak set of guards. Seth Curry is a horrible defender, and I expect Payton to get to the interior at will. I think he has a pretty good chance of a near triple-double type of game here. Due to his inconsistency, his price tag is depressed and his ownership levels will be low as well. This is a perfect spot for tournaments.
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If you watched any part of that Grizzlies vs. Mavs game last night, I want to personally apologize. That was one of the most boring games of basketball I have ever witnessed and for that to take part in the NBA, is astonishing to me. The Mavs scored 12 points or less in 2 quarters, which is amazing in itself. With all of that being said, the Magic should force the ball a little bit more and I expect these guys to get a few more peripherals and shots up tonight. While the Magic have been kind of slow, Payton is just getting back to full strength and he has always been a point guard that looks to push the ball up the court. Matthews will face off with Evan Fournier, who has a complete disregard for defense. Curry will be facing off with Elfrid Payton, which is a slightly below average match up. Mathews and Curry should have no problem getting some open shots up at the 3 point line, which is where most of there upside comes from.
We have another combo here with Josh Richardson and Dion Waiters. Even with Dragic back, we saw both of these guys pick up over 32 minutes. The Heat like both of these guys a lot and look at them like big pieces of the future. The Wizards are playing extremely fast this year, and the Heat will have no problem heaving up some shots on the perimeter. Richardson and Waiters may eat into each other a little bit, so I would pick one in tournmanets. If I was forced to go with 1, it would be Richardson for the price and his tendency to pick up more peripherals.
Harrison Barnes FD - $6100 DK - $6900
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 30.14 DK - 31.92
Harrison barnes was a guy we all hated while on the Warriors. He missed what seemed like every shot, got in the way, and took up a bunch of useful minutes. He then left in free agency and signed a gigantic contract with the Mavs. Since, he has played like a star. Admiteddly, I din't see him playing like this, but I believe it. The upside has always been there and it is showing this season. With Williams and Barea out, Barnes will be forced to play 35 minutes and remains a great play in both cash games and tournaments. Like mentioned, the Magic are a faster team than the Mavs and a PACE increase is a huge deal.
Marcus Morris FD - $5100 DK - $5000
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 28.43 DK - 30.44
The small forward spot is pretty weak tonight, and we have to look for safety in our cash games. Marcus Morris will be on the court for around 32 minutes, and will put up around 10 shots. He is going to do that on a nightly basis and I am comfortable with him across the board. You are not missing ut on any other stud, so this a spot where you can save and spend elsewhere. The Celtics play at a fast pace, so Morris has a better chance of filling up the stat sheet. He is a great play in all formats.
Otto Porter FD - $6300 DK - $6600
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 30.04 DK - 31.83
Otto Porter has been really good this year. He is not a top option on the offense, but finds a way to get the ball and score. He will then follow it up with a block or steal and be off in transition with Wall for another easy 4 fantasy points. With Whiteside on the Heat, the Wizards are going to need help on the boards and I could see them stretching out Porter to the 3 while running a big lineup. While his price has risen, he has been great this year and deserves consideration across the board. His upside may be limited by the slow pace of the Heat, so I would look elsewhere if you are talking large field.
Anthony Davis FD - $11400 DK - $10800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 46.85 DK - 48.88
Anthony Davis went absolutely crazy last night, and we all knew it was possible. This guy is a freak of nature and is one of the most unpredictable guys in the league. Because of that, you have to consider him in tournmanets here. Who are we to say he won't just come right back and go crazy against against an undersized Hornets interior. Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller have no chance, as long as AD is giving full effort. I am not sure if he will be in my cash games, but I will have a ton of him in tounaments. His upside is there and I expect the ownership to be way down once again.
Tobias Harris FD - $6100 DK - $6000
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 29.76 DK - 31.83
Tobias Harris is always a pretty solid option. He gets a bunch of minutes, a bunch of shots and is trusted by the coach. Due to the blowout last night, Harris only played 20 minutes, which leads me to expect big minutes out of him tonight. The Celtics are the 6th worst rebounding team in the league, so Harris and Drummond should be able to rack up plenty. Harris has been over 30 minutes in all but 2 games this year, but I think you can lock in 35 tonight. Amir Johnson will be the opposition, and I don't think he has a chance. Harris can stretch the ball and Johnson will have trouble coming out to the perimeter. I could really see Harris having a field day here.
Markieff Morris FD - $5700 DK - $6000
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.67 DK - 28.86
Markieff Morris, like Harris, is a pretty consistent option. He is actually a pretty similar player. THey both like the mid range jump shot, are plus defenders, and have limited plus-post moves. They are both very reliable for peripherals and will rack up constant boards against bad opponents. While Whiteside gbbles up plenty, there are some rebounds left over and nobody else to grab them. because of this, we saw big rebounding games out of Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol recently. Morris is more of a tournament play for me tonight, but I think he is fine in cash as well.
Hassan Whiteside FD - $9000 DK - $9000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 45.91 DK - 48.31
Hassan Whiteside is pretty amazing. If he didn't get into foul trouble last game, he may of gotten to 75 fantasy points. In a little more than a half of basketball, Whiteside recorded 12 points and 17 rebounds to go along with 7 blocks and 2 steals. The Wizards drive the lane a lot and Whiteside should have plenty of block opportunities. He is a virtual lock for 15 rebounds and I woudln't put 25 past him. He is my favorite guy at the position in both cash games and tournaments. While Gortat is a known good defender, he has nowhere near the length to stay with Whiteside.
Both of these guys are going to have trouble with each other. On one hand, Kelly Olynyk is going to have no chance with Andre Drummond. Drummond is going to bully him down low and body him up in the paint. What I expect to happen is Drummond takes Amir Johnson, and that will force Tobias Harris on Kelly Olynyk. This makes sense for both sides, but there are still some advantages there. Olynyk should be able to find some open shots on the perimeter, and Drummond will be the only guy around the rim with both power forwards on the periemeter. This is a great spot for Drummond to get a 20/20. Good luck tonight!