Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/10/16

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Point Guards

Tim Frazier FD - $4900 DK - $5700
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.56 DK - 29.66
Jameer Nelson FD - $4800 DK - $5300
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 26.54 DK - 29.16
Shelvin Mack FD - $4000 DK - $4900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 22.41 DK - 24.58
These are the "if" guys and they are only viable if their teammates aren't able to run. We will need to wait on news about Jrue Holiday, Emmanuel Mudiay and George respectively but if any guy misses then either these three stand to benefit in a major way. Frazier should see minutes in the low 30's without Jrue and he's adept at running the offense. It's a little suspect that he only saw 29 against the Sixers with Moore and Holiday out, but they don't have have great ball-handlers after him on the bench.

Meanwhile Jameer ran 36 minutes against the Wiz and the Nuggets would need him to handle all of the playmaking for Denver were Mudiay to sit again. I'm more inclined to play him than Frazier if things break right and he's a bit cheaper to boot. The minutes appear more secure if he's the primary PG in the offense.

And finally, we have Mack who played 37 minutes against Golden State and went 19/5/2. He was helped greatly in usage with Gordon Hayward sitting as well. The Jazz were, miraculously, able to hang somewhat with the Warriors the other night thanks to Mack actually scoring. I'm not worried about Dante Exum butting up against his minutes if Hill is out either. But again, we will need to wait on news for all three of these guys.

Kemba Walker FD - $8000 DK - $7500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 39.39 DK - 41.68
He's more of a DraftKings value than FanDuel but I don't mind playing him over there tonight in a plus matchup against the Cavs. He was a chalk DK play last night in cash an underperformed his price thanks in large part to the blowout they dealt the Magic. That will have folks off Kemba tonight even though he gets to face up against Kyrie, a dude not known for defensive prowess. If you think Charlotte can hang (no line as of this writing) then this could be a high usage game for Kemba who has 20+ look upside in the right matchup.

Shooting Guards

Will Barton FD - $5600 DK - $6700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 27.47 DK - 29.41
I'd like him much more if Mudiay sat tonight, but either way I think Barton makes for a high floor play considering he's one of the few guys Mike Malone appears willing to play actual, big boy minutes. He's 36, 39, 43 in the last three and his versatility on both sides of the ball make it easier to keep him on the court for long stretches. The Magic are a slower, defensively-minded team (for the most part) but Barton's minutes are just too locked in to fade him here. That he was an overwhelming chalk play last game and somewhat underperformed makes it even better. Folks will be off him to their own detriment. His rebounding at the two is what keeps him in the elite class because it helps offset any shooting concerns for cash games.

Evan Fournier FD - $5300 DK - $5300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 26.56 DK - 28.65
Seeing as how the Magic were blown out in their last two, projecting Fournier's (or the rest of the team's for that matter) minutes is a tricky situation. Frank Vogel's taken right over for Scott Skiles and is playing fast and loose with his rotations. That makes for a DFS minefield for really everyone on the team. Fournier though is the one guy I think has a solid, mid 30's projected run if the game stays close. Vegas has it within range with Orlando -1 heading in. Denver's been the worst in the league at defending the opposing two and they allow a ton of scoring to the position. Fournier should have plenty of looks here and let's hope he can stay on the court with the fickle Mr. Vogel.

A quick note on the Beard: James Harden isn't a great value but he does have a weaker matchup with Dallas. Few other players have his kind of floor and on early runs, he's showing up in some spots. I'm just a little worried about the pace of this game.

Strongly consider Langston Galloway if the Pelicans' backcourt is without Holiday and Moore again. There's also some upside on J.J. Redick if you think the Pelicans can stay in the game with the Clippers.

Small Forwards

LeBron James FD - $9800 DK - $9400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 46.44 DK - 49.78
This pick is especially good on DraftKings, but should you have the salary to spend I don’t exactly hate playing the King on Fanduel either. At this point in the season I’m not too worried about the back to back. James ran the court for 45 minutes versus Toronto the day after running 34 against the Clippers last week. As of this writing, he is on pace to pay about 5X points per dollar against the Heat and the Hornets are a bottom ten team defensively. On a night with a lot of question marks the floor is high with LeBron.

Joe Johnson FD - $3600 DK - $4900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 21.39 DK - 23.06
This play is clearly predicated on Gordon Hayward missing another game due to that sprained finger, but if he does indeed sit out again Joe Johnson pushes into must play territory. The Jazz play at a notoriously slow pace and the Kings are slightly above average defending against opposing small forwards, but price meets opportunity in a match made in DFS heaven. Thursday night against the Warriors Johnson paid nearly 5X points per dollar and Rudy Gay is no Kevin Durant. We will have to watch this one closely and hope word comes down early enough on Hayward, but should everything fall in to place don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Harrison Barnes FD - $6400 DK - $6200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 35.01 DK - 36.65
Let’s just sweep Thursday nights game against the Kings under the rug and look at the bigger picture here. Yes HB gave up a season high 6 turnovers in 32 minutes of run but in the 5 games prior to that he was putting in 37-41 minutes per game averaging 21.6 points per game with a total of 4 turnovers in that span. Barnes has taken control of this team with Dirk out and looks to have a good showing against a fast paced Rockets squad. He put up a huge second half line yesterday that carried him to a 25/8/2 line and I think we can expect something similar if the Mavs can stay in the game.

 

 

Power Forwards

Blake Griffin FD - $9000 DK - $8500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 46.17 DK – 48
More of a tournament play as there is the risk of blowout here, Griffin and the Clippers host a Pelicans team on Saturday night still reeling from a humiliating loss at the hands of the Sixers. While Griffin will be contending with Anthony Davis, coming in to the game with an obvious chip on his shoulder, the Pelicans are absolutely atrocious against opposing power forwards this year giving up the third most fantasy points to the position. Blake himself had a less than stellar outing against the Warriors, but he had been averaging almost 42 fanduel points per game since November 18th. If you think this one stays close then Blake is the clear choice at power forward.

Jabari Parker FD - $6400 DK - $6400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.11 DK - 35.67
If Parker stays on his current pace he is in line for the best season of his young career. In 21 games this season he’s averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and minutes, and is turning that into fantasy production gold. Just last night he paid 6.5 points per dollar against the Hawks and tonight gets to showcase against a Wizards team near the bottom defensively against opposing power forwards. While Parker makes good things happen once hes got the ball in his hands, his defensive game leaves something to be desired. With that I love his safety for cash games, but think there’s upside to be found elsewhere for tournaments.

Josh McRoberts FD - $3900 DK - $4000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 23.35 DK - 24.99
The list of injured Heat players runs so very deep, and Josh McRoberts has benefitted greatly. On November 28th against Boston he saw a mere seven minutes of run scoring almost as many fantasy points. Fast forward a couple of weeks and is THE option at power forward with his minutes creeping up game by game to a season high 30 against the Hawks. While he failed to produce during that game, the price is right for a guy who is not only coach Spoelstras only choice but an excellent choice for our purposes as well.

 

Centers

Mason Plumlee FD - $6100 DK - $5300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 32.9 DK - 34.33
Do you trust he plays in the low 30's tonight? If you do then he's the cash game play. Even at more than $6K on FD I think I'm willing to pull the trigger here. The Pacers are garbage against opposing centers, allowing about 5% more scoring and 6% more rebounding than league average to the position. Plmulee passes the position as well as anyone in the game, has been seeing upwards up 10 shots per game in the short term and contributes a ton of defensive stats. I'm fine with paying a bit of a premium considering we can sweat the minutes some.

Hassan Whiteside FD - $8800 DK - $8600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 45.72 DK - 47.61
Yeah, I know, you don't want to play him. He's coming off two total stains of games where he looked disinterested, unenthusiastic and probably a lot a bit of tired. I get it on that end. But I like him for a bounce back game here against a Bulls' team who is below average in just about every metric against opposing centers. Of course we have the blowout concerns with Miami again because they are so shorthanded at this point. They've been decimated by injuries are basically playing with 8-9 players. But Whiteside has crazy upside in the right kind of game if they can hang and I love taking a stab on him in tournaments tonight. Cash games is going to be a bit of a push considering some of the other options.

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