Weekly NFL Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Wildcard Round of Playoffs
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Wildcard Round of Playoffs
The grinding 17 weeks of the regular have come to an end but that doesn't mean the end of daily fantasy football. Luckily we still have three more weeks to pad our bankrolls for DFS PGA, NHL, NBA and soon NASCAR and MLB.
The tricky part about Wildcard weekend is that we only have four games to build our lineups around. This increases the ownership of the "obvious" plays making it harder to differentiate yourself in tournaments. I will once again turn to the Player Lab to break down the players and their matchups to help make the most successful tournament lineups. The difference this week is the absence or limitations of some of the filters due to the limited field of players. Let's take a look.
When looking at the quarterbacks this week I eliminated the "High Vegas O/U" filter. I did this as there are no games with a total that exceeds 46 points with three of the four games within a two-point projection. Instead, I turned to my two favorite filters throughout the season(High Team Pass Yards & TD %) which narrowed the field down to four options. The big thing that stood out to me from there was the extreme reliance on the pass that both the Giants and Packers showed this season. It has almost everything to do with both of those teams having little to no run game, especially in the red zone.
This week more than any other I look at historical stats more than Defense vs. Position as most of the horrible defenses will be at home watching this week and I am not talking about the teams on BYE. As you can probably tell I will be kicking off the stacks with the Packers so let us get started.
Heading right to Sunday night's game to kick off the picks this week with the hottest quarterback in football. Looking back all the way to Week 11 against the Redskins, which was their last loss, Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 2,018 yards(288.3 yards/game) but that hasn't been the most impressive part. He has also tossed 18 touchdown passes with zero interceptions leading the Packers all the way to the NFC North title. The pieced together running game with Christine Michael and TY Montgomery has forced Rodgers to put the team on his back or arm if you will. It helps he has one of the top wide receivers in the game in Jordy Nelson who led the league with 14 touchdown catches and finished sixth with 1,257 receiving yards. He will have a tough task this week as he will be shadowed for the majority of the game by Janoris Jenkins who ranks as one of the top corners in the game. While the blowup potential will be limited I still expect Nelson to get 8-12 targets and he is definitely more than capable of turning one loose. With playoff games being much more low-scoring I would avoid stacking both Packers wideouts but will have multiple Packers stacks with Rodgers and will also pair him with Devante Adams. In a way it's hedging in case Jordy is shut down by Jenkins but Adams has shown the ability to provide value even when Jordy is having a good week. Even with Randall Cobb playing a much bigger role earlier in the season, Adams finished just three yards short of 1,000 and scored a whopping 12 touchdowns as secondary option.
I am going to stay in the same game for the next stack. I see this game being the highest scoring game on the slate and outside of the Raiders and Texans has the tightest spread as well. A close, high-scoring game means lots of pass attempts from both sides and like I explained above, Rodgers and Eli are already relied upon a ton for their teams overall touchdown production. While Odell Beckham Jr. will most likely be one of the top three highest owned players on the slate, the Giants won't be the highest owned stack. That has to do with the inconsistency and sometimes awful quarterback play by Eli Manning. This week he will look to pickup only his fourth 20+ fantasy point performance of the season. He has a great matchup vs. the Packers who have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last four weeks of the season. With those kinds of numbers allowed to wide receivers, it brings both Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz into play. If Eli is to go off for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns, one or both of these players will be involved.
While this game has the second lowest total of the slate, there is a ton of reasons to love the Seahawks stack for tournaments. Looking at the Player Lab, Russell Wilson has the best matchup of all eight quarterbacks going up against the Lions who rank 30th in Defense vs. the Pass. Wilson has been inconsistent this season but has shown big upside with six games of 20 or more fantasy points and one game, most recently against the Cardinals, where he put up 350 yards and four touchdowns for 37 DK/33 FD points. Doug Baldwin will be the top option this week going up against a Lions team that has given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last four weeks. He has only received double-digit targets for times this season but seen a huge boost two weeks ago when Tyler Lockett went out. He saw 14 of his game high 19 targets that game after Lockett exited and ended up with 171 yards and a touchdown. Jimmy Graham only saw an average of 5.9 targets per week but had a nice bounce-back season with three 100+ yard games and six touchdowns coming just 73 yards short of a 1,000-yard season. The other factor that has me leaning towards the passing game is the inability of Thomas Rawls to gain any yards rushing entering the playoffs. He lucked out a touchdown last week but gained just 14 yards on eight carries and has now averaged under two yards per carry in three straight games. In a win or go home playoff scenario don't expect the Seahawks to be patient if Rawls gets off to a slow start. I am fully expecting 35+ attempts this week from Wilson and that is more than enough to provide elite tournament upside.
Before you go make lineups I thought you would enjoy these Top 5 athletic plays of the NFL season brought to you by the KC Chiefs Twitter account. Sooo... who is playing Dontari Poe at QB next week? Good luck everyone!
— z-Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 29, 2016
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- Russell_Wilson_vs_Jets,_November_11,_2012: By Larry Maurer [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons