Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/10/2017
Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/10/17

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Point Guard

John WallJohn Wall FD - $9500 DK - $9900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.04 DK - 49.02
If you want to pay up at point guard tonight you don't necessarily have to break the bank to do so. John Wall is the most expensive true PG on both sites and comes in at a sub 10k price tag. For the price you get a player that is putting up career highs in points and steals per game with 23.3 and 2.3 respectively. His overall production dipped a little his last time out against the Bucks, but the Bulls are a bottom 10 defense against the position so he should bounce back to form nicely giving us a solid 5X points per dollar perfect for our cash game considerations.

Dennis SchroderDennis Schroder FD - $6900 DK - $6700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.37 DK - 37.06
Rule number one of NBA daily fantasy is to target the team that plays a fast pace and is horrible against the position. And tonight Dennis Schroder hits the jackpot with the Brooklyn Nets. Schroder depends primarily on his scoring for his fantasy production as his periphs don't necessarily always amount to much, but his last few contests have seen an increase in his production scoring over 20 points in 2 straight. I'll say it again, the Nets are just plain bad, if Schroder wants to continue increasing his scoring percentages tonight he will have no problem doing just that.

Marcus SmartMarcus Smart FD - $5200 DK - $5800
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 26.65 DK - 28.78
Avery Bradley sat out on Saturday night and Marcus Smart moved right in to his spot without missing a step. He went 7 of 10 from the field with 5 three pointers to give him 22 points on the night. Add in 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals and a block and you've got all the makings of a great value play. Toronto presents a stronger opponent than the Pelicans but, even if Smart can put up just half the production from Saturday he's well worth it.

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Shooting Guard

James HardenJames Harden FD - $11700 DK - $12100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 58.15 DK - 62.31
Harden came in like a lamb against Toronto the other night, but once he got going he unleashed the lion. When all was said and done he had his 10th triple double of the season, with a 40/10/11 line, but more impressive than that, he recorded his 16th straight game with a double double. Tonight the Rockets host the Hornets who are giving up 5% more rebounds and 6% more assists than league average to opposing 2s so a second straight triple double is not out of the question. I like Harden in all formats, even at this price you can't deny the upside.

Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo FD - $10100 DK - $9700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 51.22 DK - 53.54
Alphabet missed the last game on Sunday against the Wizards due to illness but is fully expected to go tonight when the Bucks take on the Spurs. The Greek Freak has been very consistent this season, scoring over 40 fantasy points in all but 1 of his last 20 games played, and scoring over 50 in 10 of those. These two teams play in the bottom half of the league in pace, and that coupled with the Spurs being about average defensively against the position has me liking Harden better in tournaments for his upside, but if you need a little salary relief in your cash games, ABC is a choice as easy as 123.

Jeremy LambJeremy Lamb FD - $4000 DK - $5100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.91 DK - 29.43
Nicolas Batum is dealing with a hyperextended knee and is listed as doubtful for tonights game against the Rockets. If he does in fact miss another game, Jeremy Lamb moves into must play territory. In his start the other night against the Spurs, Lamb went for 29 minutes and put up 13 points and 3 assists to go with 8 rebounds and a block to the tune of 7X points per dollar. While Harden will be focused on his offensive game, he doesn't provide a lot of defensive fight against opposing guards, and Lamb could be in line for his own double double. Keep an eye out in case anything changes, but as long as Lamb gets the start he's a great play and stacking him and Harden could balance out your SG budget.

Small Forward

Kawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard FD - $8300 DK - $7900
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 41.93 DK - 44.1
Small Forward isn't that desirable tonight, the higher priced guys have less than appealing matchups and potential blowouts, if you are looking to spend up I'd look no higher than Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi's a perfect fantasy player contributing to all facets of the game, so even if the shot isnt falling he can make up for it in assists, boards and throw in a block and steal for good measure. Recently the shot has been hit or miss as he's been making more attempts from beyond the arc and the free throws are way down from where they started out this season, but tonight could go his way as the Bucks really have no one to contain him. Consider Leonard for your cash games while staying open to the idea of some tournament exposure.

Jae CrowderJae Crowder FD - $5000 DK - $5200
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 26.12 DK - 27.98
Jae Crowder had a fairly solid month of December, but has not been ringing in the new year the way we would have hoped, after ghosting against the Sixers on Friday he followed up with 8 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists against the Pelicans the next night. He's got to bounce back to form soon right? Well tonight he faces off with the Raptors and while they're about league average against opposing threes, that has them kinder to the position than those 2 teams he faced over the weekend. As I said, SF is tough, but I think Crowder is definitely worth a shot given the price and opportunity.

Michael Kidd-GilchristMichael Kidd-Gilchrist FD - $4800 DK - $5000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 23.11 DK - 24.03
That brings us to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who, well, hasn't been terrible in his last few games. Since New Years Eve he has averaged 23.86 fantasy points which is good for 5x at his current price. He managed a double double against The Thunder and has come close in the two games since. The minutes seem to be locked in right around the 30 mark and if he can continue getting that run at these prices while maintaining the production then he has to be in the cash game conversation.

Strongly consider Doug McDermott with D Wade and Butler out tonight

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Power Forward

Paul MillsapPaul Millsap FD - $8100 DK - $7800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38.83 DK - 41.02
I told you, The Nets are just a bad team, and they play at a ridiculous pace. So tonight the theme is Hawks, Hawks, and more Hawks. Now, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the fact that it seems Atlanta is looking to trade Millsap, so keep your eyes on that situation. If he is in the starting lineup tonight in a Hawks uniform then he is one of the best plays of the night. The Nets give up 6% more points and 5 % more rebounds than league average to opposing PFs, and a ridiculous 22% more steals and 38% more blocks. If he's still a Hawk it could be a big night for Millsap who has been very reliable since the start of the new year.

Derrick FavorsDerrick Favors FD - $4500 DK - $5000
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 20.94 DK - 21.94
Derrick Favors has been a roller coaster ride to compete with anything you'll find at Six Flags this season. He saw his minutes buzzed a bit in the second game of the back to back against Memphis. He should be fully rested tonight as the Jazz play host to the wold champs. This game has an early line of only 3 points, so there's no blowout concern, and the Cavs play a league average pace so Favors could get in on a few more looks. I'm not feeling much upside in this one, but for cash games, Derrick Favors should be a safe pick.

Julius RandleJulius Randle FD - $7200 DK - $7400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 38.77 DK - 40.78
Randle's price just hasn't caught up to his performance in recent weeks, and until the sites adjust, he will be in the conversation every time the Lakers play. The minutes got buzzed in a blowout win over the Heat but that game aside he has seen a consistent run of 34-37 in the last 5 outings. His game is coming full circle as his defensive game continues to improve as well. The Trailblazers give up 14% more points and assists than league average at the position making Randle a great play in all formats.

Nikola Mirotic is very interesting with D. Wade and Butler out.

Center

Dwight HowardDwight Howard FD - $7600 DK - $7500
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 39.5 DK - 41.52
We lead off our centers with, well....how about that, another Hawk, going against the Nets. Howard goes overlooked sometimes at the 5, with the Boogies and Processes of the world, but he's been flying under the radar paying nearly 4.5x at this price since returning from a back injury in December. If Paul Millsap does in fact get dealt, then Howard becomes that much more of a value as he sees a 5% increase in usage when Millsap's off the court this season. Either way Dwight's a great option for your cash games, and if there's no Millsap then that makes him an attractive tournament play as well.

Marcin GortatMarcin Gortat FD - $6400 DK - $5900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.53 DK - 33.1
Marcin has started the new year off with a bang! Since December 30th he has averaged 32.3 fantasy points per game paying over 5X points per dollar at this salary. He disappeared against the Bucks on Sunday, but prior to that had 5 straight double doubles. The Bulls are a top 5 team defensively against opposing 5s, but as long as the minutes are there, then Marcin should have plenty of opportunity to hit value at this price.

Al HorfordAl Horford FD - $7400 DK - $6700
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 35.94 DK - 37.52
We'll close out the centers with Al Horford. Horfords offensive game has been up and down this season, but the thing about him is he contributes in so many aspects of the game, that even if the shot isn't falling he can still have a positive impact on your lineups. The Raptors are a top 10 defensive team against opposing 5's but their weakeness lies in the fact that they give up 15% more blocks than league average against the position. So, even if Horford shot isn't falling, he'll make sure the Raptors aren't getting close to the net on the other end as well. If his shot is falling, then look for him to crush his value. I like Horford in all formats, but lean more to cash than tournaments.

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. If you had to choose between Millsap or Howard in tournament play who would you go with? I was leaning towards Millsap since Booker will probably be out. Thank you

    • At utility on drsftkings? I’d probably go with milsap but both are good plays. Trevor Booker playing, or not playing wouldn’t be a factor in that decision for me.

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