Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/16/17

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day! We can celebrate one of the great civil rights heroes of all time by playing one of the best games of all time - daily fantasy basketball! Today features absurdly constructed and seemingly random DraftKings slates, and a couple of slates on FanDuel. I won't be giving you plays to fill out your rosters for all slates - you'll need to grab a free three day trial of the lineup optimizer to do that - but here are a couple of guys I'm looking to build around today.

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Point Guard

 
Elfrid Payton FD - $6000 DK - $6200
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 32.27 DK - 34.14
With Fournier already ruled out for Monday, leaving the Elf on the shelf is looking like a worse and worse idea. What's that? You bet your sweet ass I opened this article with a terrible pun. The Magic have seemingly out of nowhere committed to more solid rotations, which leads to a weird daily fantasy situation where you can consider a lot of their guys almost regardless of match-up. Payton has played 35 and 39 minutes in his last two games, and averaged 45 fantasy points in that short stretch. It's a small sample size of course, but given that he put up his best game of the season in the worst possible match-up in Utah has to be very reassuring. He's got no such match-up issues with the Nuggets today - they've allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. He looks like a terrific play in all formats until the Magic lose their minds again.

Kemba Walker FD - $7900 DK - $7900
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 41.34 DK - 43.98
A couple of uninspiring performances recently have caused Walker's price to drift downward, but this just looks like a buying opportunity to me. He'd been steadily paying 5x points per dollar on these prices, and the dip in performance can be attributed to A) a game against the Spurs and B) a 7/23 shooting performance against the 76ers. Well, tonight he's not playing the Spurs, and it seems a little shortsighted to think he'll keep shooting at less than 30% from the field. Boston hasn't been a terrific match-up for opposing point guards this season, but our projection system is just seeing Walker's discounted price and identifying him as a nice high floor option. I don't think the upside is huge here, but certainly wouldn't mind locking Walker into my cash games tonight.

Austin Rivers FD - $4400 DK - $4900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 23.1 DK - 24.6
Rivers is still on punt prices, but he's playing starter's minutes. It's just a price and opportunity mismatch, and Rivers will be a reasonable play on these prices in all but the worst match-ups. The Thunder certainly don't qualify as a bad match-up. They've played the 8th fastest PACE in the league this year, and consequently allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Rivers doesn't always dribble the ball up the court of course, but he doesn't need to have the ball in his hands constantly to pay these prices. He also has the benefit of playing primarily against OKC's putrid second team. The floor is excellent here, even if the ceiling isn't through the roof.

Also considered: George Hill in a blisteringly fast match-up with Phoenix, but the results simply haven't been there recently - so he might be more of a big tournament play. I also wouldn't be surprised if John Wall made it into cash game spots tonight.

Shooting Guard

Jodie Meeks FD - $3800 DK - $4000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 28.19 DK - 30.2
Like Payton, Meeks has all at once benefited from an absurd uptick in minutes per game while also having his price remain relatively static. Now the minutes haven't been there in back to back cases the way Payton's have, but the 38 minutes and 25 fantasy points in a tough match-up with Utah are a dream on these prices. Now you obviously won't be playing Meeks if he's out of the starting lineup or if Fournier returns, but in a league-best match-up with Denver it's really hard to imagine not rolling with him if he gets the nod once again.

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $10300 DK - $10500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 49.98 DK - 52.35
There's a lot of value on today's slate, and that means we can probably pay up in a couple of spots. At a relatively shallow day at shooting guard, Giannis looks like a really solid option in that department. The 76ers aren't the no-brainer match-up that they were in the past on account of them drifting toward a league average pace, but with Giannis we need to look past simple defense vs. position statistics. When we really think about who is going to trail Giannis here, we're probably left with Robert Covington - a willing defender who might simply have size issues with Milwaukee's over-sized combo guard/small forward/whatever the heck this guy is. I don't think we're in line for Antetokounmpo's best game of the season necessarily, but he still ranks among my top big money options today.

Klay Thompson FD - $6500 DK - $6500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32.84 DK - 35.99
I was surprised to see so few Golden State guys in the optimal lineups for today, considering this is one of the rare instances that we can actually pencil them in for the high end of their minutes. So what's different about Klay? The fact that he's a shooting guard. The Cavs are by far the weakest against opposing two guards, allowing the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing SGs this season. Korver's uptick in minutes aren't helping them in that department, and Golden State's ability to find exactly the right guy to take their shots should have Thompson doing some serious work here. The normal minutes risk for the Warriors' players shouldn't apply here, and Thompson looks like a great cash game play and a reasonable big tournament option.

Consider JJ Redick - he shouldn't have a high ceiling on account of a relatively tough match-up, but he had put up a steady 24+ fantasy points per game until last game's blowout of the Lakers.

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $9900 DK - $10100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 48.84 DK - 51.86
Speaking of good big money options! LeBron was truly elite against the Warriors on Christmas day, and he seems really thrive when up against the "best team in the league." Psychological motivations aside, there are two main reasons to love LeBron here. The first is the same case I made for Thompson applies here as well - LeBron's season long minutes per game won't be in line for what you can expect in closer games because Cleveland spends so much time blowing teams out. What LeBron has in his favor that Thompson didn't have is Golden State's incredible pace of play. Thompson and the Warriors already have that pace priced in, but when a slow team like the Cavs plays against the Warriors the extra possessions really add up in DFS.

Aaron Gordon FD - $5000 DK - $5800
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.85 DK - 29.21
Will the Magic run the table and have a guy recommended at every position? Are we in for the first ever Magic stack of the season? Time will tell. Gordon's been a maddening DFS commodity this season because the minutes have been dancing all over the place, but for the most part he's produced when the minutes have been there. He's on three straight games with 36+ minutes, and has been truly elite on this FanDuel price in two of those games. Denver hasn't been nearly as bad against opposing small forwards as they have against guards, but Gordon is simply too good a scorer to be worth $5,000 on FD. Love him in all formats here.

Gordon Hayward FD - $7500 DK - $7900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 37.79 DK - 40.36
If you're in the market for a mid-range option at small forward tonight, I'd definitely take a hard look at Gordon Hayward. I think I'd prefer LeBron and Aaron Gordon in a vacuum, but Hayward's in a perfect spot where he's both slightly under-priced and playing against the league's 2nd fastest team.
He clustered 3 bad games in a row recently, but in a league average match-up you'd expect him to pay 5x on this price with relative ease - in a plus match-up with the Suns he's seriously dripping with value.

Also considered: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

Power Forward

Anthony Davis FD - $11600 DK - $11700
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 58.26 DK - 60.69
Terrence Jones FD - $5200 DK - $5700
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 31.86 DK - 33.6
Going double-Pelican is looking pretty hot and tempting (read: PHAT) tonight. The case for Davis is pretty straight-forward - he's a $12k player when he's playing 38-40 minutes, and all signs point to the Pelicans being (perhaps unwisely) willing to throw him right back into the fire for maximum minutes. The Pacers have been slightly worse against power forwards than they have against centers, which is relevant here because Davis will likely line up more at the 5 than the 4 here. As for Jones - he's the main beneficiary of the Pelicans finally (wisely!) giving up on the Omer Asik/Alexis Ajinca plan. Jones has a favorable match-up with a lot of opposing power forwards on account of his speed and athleticism, and Thad Young is less likely to punish his defensive inefficiencies than power forwards who rely more on strength and size. Jones has simply been excellent from a daily fantasy perspective in each of his last two games, and I don't expect that to change in a top 5 match-up for opposing power forwards.

Derrick Favors FD - $4700 DK - $4900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.11 DK - 30.45
Favors is a case study in why sites shouldn't just price according to recent performance, as he's basically two different players. On back to backs Favors has played less than 30 minutes and been basically unplayable, but been an excellent (and nearly unanimous) play when you can count on him for 30+ minutes. Once he settles back into 30+ routine minutes he'll be a $6,000 player, and I firmly believe we're seeing his lowest prices for the rest of the season. The Suns have been a top 10 match-up for opposing power forwards this season, and I think Favors continues to add to their misery here.

Consider: Markieff Morris. The Trail Blazers are the best possible match-up for opposing power forwards, and if the minutes weren't a risk, he'd be the top guy in the system at the position. I still might consider him in that class - he can put up numbers in a hurry (like he did in the 3 games prior to his last), but it's troubling that he'll occasionally lose his minutes. Still, it wouldn't shock me to see him in our optimal cash game line-ups before lock rolls around.

Center

Nikola Vucevic FD - $7100 DK - $6600
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 37.07 DK - 38.54
Vuc has quietly moved back into the starting line-up, and has been playing 32+ minutes per game on the regular again. It's hard to remember now because the Magic have an organizational commitment to being stupid beyond belief, but Vucevic was a solid $8,000 FanDuel option before Orlando decided to start a guy who occasionally scores 0 points from the field. Full Magic stack confirmed? Full Magic stack confirmed.

Cody Zeller FD - $5100 DK - $4700
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 26.49 DK - 27.57
Zeller has quietly returned from injury and paid 5x and 6.5x points per dollar in each of his two starts, but he's still priced like a guy who plays 20 minutes per game. The Celtics have been roughly league average against opposing centers this season, but this is a simple case of a price and opportunity mismatch. There's some chance that Zeller loses a few minutes in this one on account of not being able to handle Horford, but this can't be any worse a match-up than the Spurs were last week. Super high floor here, with a great ceiling as well.

Also considered: Dwight Howard, but mostly as an upside/big tournament play.

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