Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/13/17

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Point Guard

Mike ConleyMike Conley FD - $7900 DK - $7700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 39.41 DK - 41.61
Conley headlines our point guard ranks tonight for one fairly straightforward reason - his match-up. The Nets have been jockeying back and forth with the Nuggets as the very best match-up for opposing point guards. Conley, meanwhile, is already arguably a value. He went out and put up 20/5/9 against the Warriors, and it goes without saying that the Nets are a significantly better match-up. They've played the league's fastest place with a bottom 3 defense, and a grizzled creator like Conley should eat them for lunch.

Damian LillardDamian Lillard FD - $8600 DK - $8600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 43.33 DK - 46.71
Lillard has been one of the most consistent point guards in all of daily fantasy sports recently, putting up nearly identical lines (averaging 29/6/6 and 46 fantasy points) in each of his last 3 games. And those weren't even phenomenal match-ups - he drew Boston's tough wing defenders, Russell Westbrook, and Dallas' reasonable defensive backcourt (and more importantly, their 2nd lowest PACE). Atlanta, meanwhile, has been a top ten match-up for opposing point guards all season thanks to the defensive downgrade they've seen from Jeff Teague to Denis Schroder. Lillard is a rock solid cash game option, even if he's unlikely to be atop big tournament winning lineups tonight.

George HillGeorge Hill FD - $6200 DK - $6100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.95 DK - 32.66
Hill has been sort of maligned as a daily fantasy commodity, but he's really been turning things around recently. He rocked Boston for 36 fantasy points in his last game, scored 42 against Atlanta few games before that, and has sprinkled in solid performances around those bombs. He can still no-show on you from time to time, but if you're in the market for a huge performance tonight he's one to keep an eye on. A lot of people are still using season long defense vs. position statistics, and those are going to be flawed by the fact that Chris Paul makes up a lot of the Clippers' numbers here. Austin Rivers isn't half the defensive force that Paul is, and I think we could be in line for a very nice Hill game here.

A quick note on Steph Curry: Make no mistake - this is an otherworldly match-up for Steph. He's reasonably priced, has had some huge games recently, and will likely be something of a chalk play. The question is, will he get his minutes? If you think so, you need to play him. If you think the minutes are too risky, then any of the above guys should do.


Shooting Guard

Tim Hardaway Jr.Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5700 DK - $5800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.11 DK - 30.09
Shooting guard is a little bit sketchy tonight, but I'm pretty into Hardaway here assuming Sefolosha is out again. We're definitely getting into the price territory where we at least have to think about it, but the Hawks don't seem to have any reservations at the moment. Hardaway Jr. might be as good a ball handler as Schroder at this point, and he brings something completely different to the table from Sefolosha offensively. He's averaged 37 minutes in the last two games, and looked terrific against the Kings. Now he's scoring dependent enough that he's going to have off nights from time to time, but have you seen some of the other options available to us here? They aren't incredible. The Trail Blazers haven't been the greatest match-up for opposing shooting guards this season, but I think the value and safety from my perspective is probably good enough that you don't need to worry too much about it.

Will BartonWill Barton FD - $5800 DK - $6400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 29.97 DK - 32.06
Gary HarrisGary Harris FD - $5200 DK - $5100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 26.88 DK - 28.48
And here are your high risk, high reward options tonight. Both Barton and Harris have put up 6x+ points per dollar on these prices recently, but they obviously carry quite a bit of risk on account of the match-up. The dream here is that the game stays close, and you get a bunch of extra possessions on account of what would then be a fast paced game. Both of these teams would be happy to play in a fast paced game - they both have a top 5 PACE this season - but the blowout risk is very real. On the same token, you could argue that they both rate to play a bigger role in the offense if the game starts slipping away. Either way, it's tough to recommend these guys for cash game purposes even if I do believe their "average" performance winds up paying value.

Evan FournierEvan Fournier FD - $5400 DK - $6000
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 28.68 DK - 31.1
Fournier is probably a FanDuel only play, but I think he's interesting largely because of the fact that many people are going to be a little bit frustrated with him at this point. He was great against Philly, horrific against Dallas, good against Houston, bad against Atlanta, and terrific against Toronto. Who's the real Evan Fournier? Hell if I know. But I do know that it looks like the Magic fully intend to play him 36+ minutes per game in normal game scripts right now, and the 8 point spread in Miami's favor isn't enough to scare me off here. The Heat are simply not a good match-up thanks to their absurdly slow pace, but Fournier looks like a reasonably safe cash game option given the lack of other options on this slate.

Also considered: Victor Oladipo and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. I like both roughly as much as Fournier, but they are a little bit more obvious plays. I'd be fine winding up with any of that crew.

Keep an eye on Gerald Henderson: He played 30 minutes against the Spurs and was excellent on his prices. If he starts again, he's a tremendous value here.

Small Forward

T.J. WarrenT.J. Warren FD - $4900 DK - $5000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 25.43 DK - 26.64
If you thought shooting guard was bad, small forward might give you hives. The Suns have had a pretty schizophrenic approach to doling out minutes recently, but Warren has actually been pretty steady in terms of both opportunity and production. It makes sense - he's a young guy, and they probably have to be thinking about the future. In his last 6 games he's paid 5x points per dollar in 5 of them, and then randomly lost a ton of minutes and was awful against Brooklyn. Is there a chance he falls out of favor once again? I suppose, but in a terrific match-up with the Pelicans, I'm willing to take my chances.

Harrison BarnesHarrison Barnes FD - $6200 DK - $6000
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 30.14 DK - 31.88
Barnes was a popular play against the Magic, and wound up being a total whiff. But did you see the insane game script there? Ain't going to happen tonight. Prior to his last game, Barnes had pretty well established himself as a $6,000 player on FanDuel, putting up great totals even in tough match-ups like the prior one against the Jazz. Deron Williams' return doesn't help anyone on the team's usage for sure, but I'll take my chances against what looks like the Celtics' 3rd unit of small forwards. If Jae Crowder returns this one goes down a little bit, but Barnes would still be worth a look.

Michael BeasleyMichael Beasley FD - $4300 DK - $4700
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 27.09 DK - 28.57
Dante CunninghamDante Cunningham FD - $3600 DK - $3500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 19.42 DK - 20.56
Two separate sets of question marks. With Beasley it's the opportunity. The Bucks are very short handed right now, but we unfortunately didn't get a good sense of their actual plans since their last game ended in a blowout. If he's going to play 30+ minutes he's a value on these prices regardless of the match-up, but do you trust the minutes? Cunningham has the opposite problem. He'll get minutes with Terrence Jones' injury here, but can he actually produce? No one stands on the court doing nothing as much as Dante Cunningham. He looked relatively decent against the Kings last night, though, so he might be a reasonable floor option in a great match-up that should feature lots of possessions with the Suns.

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Power Forward

Frank KaminskyFrank Kaminsky FD - $4800 DK - $5700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.62 DK - 30.42
Alex LenAlex Len FD - $4000 DK - $4500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.57 DK - 24.83
The underpriced back-ups. With Zeller and Chandler doubtful for Monday's games, it looks like Kaminsky and Len will be excellent punt plays once again. Kaminsky went off on the Clippers for 43.1 fantasy points in 36 minutes, and in an even better match-up with the Sixers, it's hard to believe he'll pay off less than 5x-6x points per dollar here. As for Len, he's a little trickier. He paid 5x points per dollar against the Rockets, but the Suns' minutes were all over the damned place on account of them getting blown out. I believe he'll see more minutes in this one, and like Kaminsky, he's also looking at a better match-up here. I wouldn't be upset to roster both of these guys, to be honest.

Paul MillsapPaul Millsap FD - $8000 DK - $7600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 41.82 DK - 44.17
It's never exciting to write Millsap's name into a pick's article, but that's actually because he's sort of consistent and boring. He put up nearly identical lines in his last two games, playing exactly 38 minutes, scoring 25 and 23 points, grabbing exactly 6 rebounds, and scoring nearly identical numbers of fantasy points. The good news for him? The Trail Blazers might just be his best match-up of the season. They've allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season, and unlike the Lakers and Nets (the first and second best match-ups), the Trail Blazers should be able to keep it close enough to let Millsap get his full run of minutes. He seems like a solid cash game option, even if he lacks the upside you're looking for in big tournaments.

James JohnsonJames Johnson FD - $6400 DK - $6200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 31.36 DK - 33
Johnson's getting more expensive, but he's also playing more and producing more than ever. He rocked 36 minutes off the bench against the Sixers, putting up his third straight 35+ fantasy point performance. More importantly, he played his highest minutes total since 1/13 in spite of Hassan Whiteside also playing a ton of minutes in their last game. He's shooting more than he ever has in the past, and he's also shooting better, falling below 50% field goal percentage just once since January 23rd. The Magic are basically a league average match-up here, so you can expect to see a lot of Johnson in cash games once again.


Steven AdamsSteven Adams FD - $6200 DK - $6000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.57 DK - 33.01
It's kind of boring, but given the current state of center in this league, that might be a good thing. The Thunder are so thin up front right now that Adams has been locked into a 37+ minute rotation in close games, and while Westbrook is chewing up a lot of the team's usage, Adams still has two 6x+ points per dollar games in his last 5. Gortat is a fairly tough match-up for Adams on the defensive end, but so much of Adams' value comes on the board and defending the paint that I think this actually profiles as a roughly league average match up for him when all things are taken into account.

Dwight HowardDwight Howard FD - $6800 DK - $6900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.6 DK - 37.56
Howard's a tough guy to evaluate, but I present him to you as the high upside alternative to Adams if you aren't excited about the New Zealander's ceiling. Howard's price has been held down by inconsistent minutes (and, let's face it, performance), but there are some real gems on his resume as well, like the 24/23 game against the Rockets. And, yes, he has had some ups and downs since then, which makes it easy to forget that he had a 5 game stretch at the end of January where he was paying these prices on the regular. The issues for Howard are two-fold. He's a bad free throw shooter, which can take him out of games late, and he can get in foul trouble from time to time. The good news here is that the Trail Blazers' simply don't have anyone on their roster that can match his strength and athleticism. He seems like a great high upside play.



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44 Visitor Comments

  1. I enjoy this article every day and find it helpful in filling out a roster. Sometimes it’s tough to tell what you’re advising people to do. For instance, in the George Hill write up, you point out that those going by full season Def vs Pos stats are going to be flawed as the LAC stats vs PG are much worse lately without Paul. But then in your Paul Millsap write up, you point out how bad POR has been vs PF. That is a full season stat. Over their last 10 games, they have given up the lowest FP in the league vs PF. Just don’t see where you stand concerning full season Def vs Pos averages. Personally, at this point of the season, I look at last 5 and last 10. It takes injuries more into account.

  2. Millsap is still a great play regardless of Portland’s last ten games. Especially with the lost of Plumlee. I get what your saying Brian, but I think Davis just wants us to take both stats into consideration and ultimately make our own decision. Plus he’s writing a paragraph on 10-15 players and doesn’t want to implement the same stat into every paragraphs. Like I said Brian I get what you are saying tho.

  3. Every day I always look at the games and come up with my own group of players that I will possibly use. Then I come to this site to compare my thoughts with the article and visitor comments. Usually everyday, each player I have selected is in this article and I end up creating lineups with variations of these players…But I get burned EVERYDAY!!! At that point I always say that I’m going to start going totally opposite of what this article says…So finally, for the 1st time, only 1 player that I have selected is named in this article (D.Howard). I was very high on him today but I will be X’ing him out and completely staying away from everybody in this article. It’s a curse!!! LOL
    1st 2nd
    Holiday Holiday
    Walker. Walker
    Batum. Thompson
    Booker. Booker
    Covington. Hayward
    Miles. Miles
    Ibaka. Ibaka
    Noel. Noel
    Vucevic. Gasol

  4. Hey with the dolphin logo who are you building around today ?

  5. I meant Hey Ryan with the dolphin Logo sorry about that

    • I’ll let you know in an hour or so. Tonight is gonna be tough. There’s a lot of value tonight. Going to be some really high scores. I’m just trying to slim down my list.

      • Awesome Sir I will wait on your info you have yet to steer me wrong :)!!!!!!!!!

      • This guy is real good thanks Ryan

  6. So Sat. I Saw E. Bledsoe was sitting out and B’ Knight was starting at PG. I read in the injury and news update Knight was a “must start”. Sounded like a great idea so i started him.
    Sun I was reading through the article and saw J. Leuer and a comment something like ….if you want to lock in 25 FP with a high upside then Leuer is it. He was not on my radar at all so i thought that a guy below 5k with a great shot at a big game? They must know something so I put him in my LU.
    I checked today and see no mention of injury. Here are the mind numbing results of these 2 “SUGGESTIONS’
    Knight = 1 FP
    Leuer =1 FP
    YEP, that is not a typeo that is a single digit. I am now getting DF bball advive from my neighbors cat. His name is Dan. I put my table down and he steps on players names to insert them in my LU. So far he has never picked any player that scored 1 FP.
    Now all the haters blast away at me for being overly critical of “FREE” advice. I gotta go see Dan……..

  7. I had Knight and Leuer and I was pissed especially about Leuer. Taj got 7 fps and was highly owned and Leuer came up and scored 1 damn point! Unbelievable some of the land mines they give you but you gotta filter some guys out and hope you’re right. They rarely nail a whole lineup but they give decent advice.

  8. Ryan if u guide me as well, I’ll give u 30% of what I win, a mans word is still good these days huh? But seriously that’s how bad I’m doing, I’m always two ppl short from going off and I need help.

  9. I said it a few days ago and I’ll say it again, this article like the rest are written giving u players they WONT play so when u do it lowers their actually players played rate. Is it coincidence that every player on here has a projected point total of within 1 or 2 points of 5x return on Fanduel? I agree with making ur own line ups and used to think that using things like this a reference and then re tooling ur line up was the move. Changing some value plays i.e. Knight and leuer thinking that I had scored some value. Now I’m thinking that I should do the same and go with Dan the cat and take ANY player in this article out of my line ups ASAP! There’s getting something wrong and even being wrong a lot is ok if the attempt if true. That’s the question is the writer truly trying to help u or themselves? Trying to show u something that u may not know or thought of or trying to stear u into a play that at best has 25% chance to make value. I have been reading this article all season and would love to see what they REALLY play for line ups. But I know that is NEVER gonna happen, even if they did show u anything it would b from a parody account they would NEVER show u their actually $10 single entry 25k to 1st entry or their Sunday million top 2 line ups. They would just show u mediocre to a little above results using their so called expert picks in GPP and double ups all with entry fees under $5. Good luck today and dolphin Ryan maybe u should write this u hit more picks in a day than they do in a week!

  10. I’m a bit more of a statistical analyzer. I usually have all the players in the article. This time I only have 2. I am beyond confident in my lineup I have though. This is always a good article. Try not to second guess yourself.

  11. So listen I won about 3500 playing a couple months ago on DK and have never sniffed the top since with the exception of a few nice cashes. I am playing $3 entry 20 lineups pretty regularly and have had some of the worst luck ever I have dropped nearly all of my winnings back. But winning was not a fluke I’ve done a lot of it You have to at some point make your own projections on a player or two each night using some ones optimizer and fill in the rest with this stuff and Rotogrindets etc. stats mean shot knowledge is king. I was one player away last night Luer killed me but tonight Knight could go off. I’m playing the 2 game slate at 4:30 I will let you know.

  12. how much stock do you put into defense v. position? How is someone like Dwight Howard a great pick yet the Trail Blazers are considered 4th in defense against the position??

  13. Here’s a guaranteed lineup to cash tonight in the 2 game 4:30 on DK it won’t win but it will return 100%
    J. Johnson
    T. Johnson
    M. Gasol

    Imagine if you built 20 lineups and doubled your money and what if a few hit top 100 or 20 that is what I’m after. Good luck feel free to use this lineup I will it was built with Rotoql and RotoGrinders and my own projections.

  14. When DVP is bothering me I go back and look at the stat lines of previous games and it reminds me that it is possible to be matchup proof depending on personal. Howard if he’s healthy can beat any team and go off at any time and can be unstoppable you have to ask yourself what is the other teams game plan who is gonna be on the court.

  15. If anyone wants to throw $3 in the 2 game 4:30 on DK and follow my screen name is Brilliance I have $60 in tonight and like my chances I even have a few guys on the list. We can all rip each other apart tomorrow win or lose lol.

  16. With Klay out. Is curry a must play. or is the blowout still to risky to expect 60 dk points.

  17. Alright here we go, unless more injury news comes in. Like I said, tonight’s gonna be tough, there’s a lot of value out there. I am gonna load up on 3 games. ATL/POR, NO/PHX, and PHI/CHA in that order. In 50/50’s I’m playing Lillard, Conley, Warren, Kaminsky, Noel, and Howard. I also like Milsap and Hayward. I may make a 2nd 50/50. In tournaments I like Saric, Ed Davis, Bazemore, Tony Allen, Mo Harkless, Dwayne Dedmon, Alex Len, and Covington on the cheap with guys like Milsap, Jokic, Wall, Curry, A. Davis. Because of Mason Plumlee being traded that leave a huge whole for Portland. Milsap and Howard will feast. Also Lillard and McCollum will have to pick up the slack. A lot of the offense ran through Plumlee. I think CJ McCollum may be the sleeper pick of the night. I’m not saying play him. I hate the SG position tonight and will probably go cheap across the board there. But if you have the salary to first McCollum in, do it. He won’t be highly owned tonight and could easily put up 50 fantasy points.

    • hey Ryan who are your favorite out of all of those cheap options? and is that your order from most liked to least liked?

      • On the cheap in order, Warren, Kaminsky, Saric, and Harkless. Now, that being said if Chandler doesn’t play for PHX, Len jumps up to even with Kaminsky. If word comes out that Nurkic isn’t going to play for Portland tonight, Ed Davis could be huge. He’s the only banger down low. I do worry about foul trouble defending Milsap and Howard. My tournament lineups are gonna be several combinations of PG- Curry, Holliday, Conley, Wall, Lillard, SG- Cheap, cheap, cheap, McCollum, SF- Warren, Hayward, Morris, Cheap, Cheap PF- Milsap, Jokic, Davis, Saric, Noel, Kaminsky, C- Whiteside, Gasol, Howard.

        • Ryan Thank you tonights slates are tough this is very very helpful Thank you sooo much

  18. Anyone have thoughts on Giannis vs Detroit?

  19. Pam, I hate to call you out but there is NO way that you have consistently won money by using players from this daily article. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, but outside of the no-brainer picks like Westbrook, Harden, etc., the picks listed here are consistently horrible.

  20. who’s the better play jokic or millsap

    • Those lineups that you gave us are those in order from most liked to least like ryan?

      • Dylan, kind of but not necessarily. It’s almost impossible to put them in order cause it depends price wise on the other players you like. In my 50/50 lineup I’m most confident in I like Conley, Lillard, Warren, Noel, Kaminsky, and Howard. I was able to fit them all in with other guys I think will pay 4x

    • I like Milsap for 50/50, Jokic for tournament. Unless you think the Warriors/Nuggets game stays close, then Jokic is the play across the board

  21. I’m thinking Kemba & Seth Curry (Williams questionable) and has been playing well. Iguodala with Klay out. Along with Kaminsky-A. Davis-Milsap sprinkled in. I also agree with Lillard,Jokic, and Howard with Plumlee gone. We’ll see

    • Does anybody have a great lineup that i can see to see what you guys think and what are good prices

  22. Brilliance hahaha and it wasn’t a fluke Derek cope won the Daytona 500!!!! If u don’t have a working proven algorithm and $ to play max entries on all GPPs $25 or less I WILL NEVER win big consistently! That’s the difference between people who write comments and write articles! Brilliance post a pic on twitter I’m sure u won’t cause if whatever reason. I’m not putting $ on dk to watch u fail no offense

  23. Also don’t sleep on J. Nelson @5400 vs GS Fast Pace, and questionable Stef D could be good. Also someone not on the radar Ish Smith @4000 last 3 27-28-30 fppg not bad. Good luck all get that $$$

  24. Do you trust McCollum tonight I have him in both my lineups

  25. Here you go Dylan. Walker-Seth Curry-Igoudala-Kaminsky-A. Davis-Ish Smith-Milsap-J. Nelson

  26. What do you think about this lineup?
    PG D. Lillard
    PG S. Curry
    SG C. McCollum
    SG G. Henderson
    SF K. Bazemore
    SF T. Warren
    PF N. Jokic
    PF A. Len
    C D. Howard

  27. Looks solid. One of my Favorites is Ante in Milwaukee his usage will be insane without Parker for the rest of the season

  28. The Westbrook vs Wall matchup will be exciting as well. Lots of fantasy points there for sure. I’ve been seeing Whiteside as a very popular pick hummm. But again, Ante is the man. He is now in my top 5 right now. 1.Bron of course 2.Westbrook 3.Harden 4. Durant 5.Ante. Just think 3 of those 5 were together dang. Good luck all…

  29. Hey Smarter (funny name btw) I don’t need to post pics just look me up on Grinders bro. I’m not a pro but I play and win here and there and even with an algorithm it does not predict 1.5 fps for 20 fps average games if you have that figured let me know. That’s why I posted and that’s why I like this site. It’s just a bunch of pros. The guys that run this site give info to others on other sites that I use to optimize my lineups. Don’t really give a crap what you say just do this for fun. I will let you know if I cash tonight bra.

  30. U whiney babies that pay ppl for picks are sad. It takes 5 minutes to come up with the ideas above. There in the selling if u win or lose biz, not the if u win biz or else they’d be rich on there own picks

  31. The lineup I posted cashed for $5 that’s a net $2 or a 60% ROI for you fucking math geniuses. It’s not a huge win but it makes money overall I won a whopping $4 lol. It’s a 7% ROI not huge but not a loss

  32. My Line posted 278.25 above and cashed.
    Curry 26.25
    Igoudala 23.75
    Kaminsky 37.25
    Davis 47.50
    Nelson 37.75
    Milsap 51.75
    Ish Smith 8.25 Only bust. This would have easily been a 300+ line had I subbed Smith for another. Let’s see what today holds…

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