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    Nascar picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    02/18/2017
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy NASCAR Season Preview & Daytona Clash Picks

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    Welcome back NASCAR fans. It's only been three months since Jimmie Johnson was crowned champion at Homestead, Miami but there has been a ton of news and changes within the sport. The biggest change that took place was series sponsor changing hands from Sprint to Monster Energy who receives lead series naming rights(Monster Energy Cup Series) and race sponsorship at the All-Star race. In addition, Monster Energy will also become the Official Energy Drink of NASCAR. It is only the third main sponsor for the lead series in its history and is aimed at drawing a new, younger audience while maintaining the sports values and integrity for the existing fans. The biggest thing I can suggest to those that are still trying to grasp the new rules and points system(I will go over below) is give it time. The more I read and hear feedback from drivers, crew chiefs, owners and fans the more excited I get every day leading up to the first practice. That's right I am a super nerd and try to watch every practice, qualifying and listen to every podcast, radio show to try and gather the most information as possible. Let's get into the on-track changes and new points system.

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    With a new series sponsor comes a brand new style of NASCAR racing as all races will now be split into three stages. For the most part, the first two stages will be 25% of the total laps with the final stage making up 50% of the races total laps. I say for the most part as every track has negotiated with NASCAR on the lap totals which was dependant on track type and other factors. You can find the list of races and their stage lengths by visiting the NASCAR site. The first race with the new stage system will be the Daytona 500. The Advanced Auto Parts CLASH this Saturday night has its own segment setup that we will cover shortly.

    The biggest change, however, was not the way races are run but how the points are awarded. At first, it seems confusing so read this a few times and I will give my take at the end.

    • At the end of Stage 1 and Stage 2, points will be awarded to the Top 10 drivers
      • 10 points for 1st, 9 points for 2nd, 8 points for 3rd and so on down to one point for 10th
    • An additional bonus "Playoff" point will be awarded to the winner of both Stage 1 and Stage 2
      • Playoff bonus points are points the driver can use if they qualify for the playoffs. These points carry over through the first three rounds
    • At the conclusion of the Final Stage points will be awarded like this:
      • 40 points for 1st, 35 points for 2nd, 34 points for 3rd, and so on. Drivers who finish 36th-40th all get one point.
      • The winning driver will also receive an additional five "Playoff bonus points".
    • At the conclusion of the regular season(after Richmond in September) the Top 10 drivers in points will also receive additional playoff bonus points.
      • 10 points for 1st, 8 points for 2nd, 7 points for 3rd and so on down to one point for 10th in the standings.

    The biggest takeaway from this, in my opinion, is that NASCAR is really emphasizing winning not only the race but each Stage during the race. At first, I thought it would be a great change for the smaller teams and give them a better chance at winning but after analyzing for a few weeks, I think that not much will change in terms of who we see in the playoffs. The best teams and the best drivers will always find themselves at the front or near the front each week. What it does bring is much more excitement throughout the entire race and we should no longer have to see a "Fuel-Mileage Race". Another bonus that the drivers and teams are very fond of is the ability to bank up those "Playoff Bonus Points" which could give some drivers a nice cushion should they get in a wreck early in the playoff round.

    Another big change is the updated Damaged Vehicle Policy. The change affects the amount of time that teams and pit crews have to repair cars on pit road following an on-track incident. They will have a five-minute clock to make repairs which starts at pit entry and ends at pit exit. There will be no more replacing body panels and if a team with damage exceeds the clock or has to go to the garage, they are done for the race. While you may think this will stop drivers from being aggressive, it most likely will not. Why? Even if some fans don't believe these drivers are trying from start to finish, they absolutely are, especially now with the new points system. What this policy change does do is keep the slower, damaged cars, that have literally no shot to win, off the track making it safer for everyone involved.

    Wow, that took a lot words and I know I missed some stuff. We are all together in this thing we call DFS NASCAR, and as we should be doing in any sport, we will adjust on the fly. DraftKings themselves have stated will be looking at possible changes once some data starts coming in this season.

     

    Advanced Auto Parts Clash

    Daytona International Speedway - Daytona Beach, Florida
    Track - 2.5 Mile Tri-Oval Superspeedway
    31° Banking in the Corners

    The NASCAR season kicks off with the Advanced Auto Parts Clash from Daytona International Speedway. This is a non-points race with a limited field. Who gets in? All Coors Lite Pole winners from last season + previous Daytona 500 Pole winners + previous Clash(formerly Sprint Unlimited) winners. This year we have 17 entries into the race on Saturday night for the 75 lap, two-segment race to the finish. A competition caution will come at Lap 20 and split the segments.

    From a DFS perspective, I will be playing GPP only with the limited field. With qualifying coming in the form of "picking names out of a hat" I will be looking for a couple of the top drivers who are possibly starting near the back as it should be fairly easy to work your way through the field. Same goes for the value guys. I will be avoiding the cheaper, less experienced drivers who qualify inside the Top 5 or 10. Let's take a look at the weekend schedule and then get into the picks.

     

    The following is the initial schedule for the weekend:

    • First Practice - Friday @ 5:00 p.m. ET
    • Qualifying - Draw from a Hat
    • Practice 2 - Friday @ 6:30 p.m. ET
    • Race - Saturday @ 8:00 p.m. ET

     

     

    Top Clash Targets

     

    Joey Logano
    DraftKings - $9,400
    Qualified - 9th

    I will be building my lineups around Joey Logano this weekend. He is coming off a fantastic season where he came in second behind Jimmie Johnson for the Championship after three total wins, 16 Top 5's and 26 Top 10 finishes. He has also been one of the best here at Daytona over the past four races. He hasn't won the Clash but has finished 3rd,  4th, 6th and 2nd last season. His mid $9K price tag also makes it nice to build a nice balanced lineup or combine with another top tier driver for stars and scrubs.

     

    Denny Hamlin
    DraftKings - $8,600
    Qualified - 2nd

    It's the same story for Denny Hamlin who comes back to the Clash with some nice history like Logano. Hamlin hasn't been as consistent as Logano in this event with two finishes outside the Top 10(last four years) but has won this event two of the last three years. The best apart about Hamlin is that he comes at an even bigger discount with this small field, soft pricing setup.
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    Austin Dillon
    DraftKings - $6,600
    Qualified - 4th

    Dillon comes with a very affordable mid $6K price tag and will be my main target in the bottom of the salary range this week. He is entering his fourth full season in NASCAR and has already shown tremendous success at Daytona. His last four points-paying races here have resulted in a 12th, 5th, 9th and 6th last summer. He has also raced the Clash twice and after finishing 17th in 2015, he improved and finished 8th last year. Look for that trend to continue with  a Top 5 finish a real possibility which would be a huge bargain at his salary.

     

     

     

     

    Post Practice & Qualifying Update

    Qualifying Top 10

    1. #2 Brad Keselowski
    2. #11 Denny Hamlin
    3. #1 Jamie McMurray
    4. #3 Austin Dillon
    5. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
    6. #48 Jimmie Johnson
    7. #4 Kevin Harvick
    8. #88 Alex Bowman
    9. #22 Joey Logano
    10. #41 Kurt Busch

     

     

     

     

     


    If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.

     

    Good Luck everyone!

     

     

     


    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.

     

    image sources

    • NASCAR Daytona Auto Racing: (AP Photo/John Raoux)

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