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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/16/16
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Point Guard
Chris Paul FD - $9800 DK - $8800
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 46.93 DK - 49.27
Chris Paul and the Clips played the Bucks last night in what ended up being a very close game. They come right back tonight and face the Nuggets, who are a very similar team. Jameer Nelson and Jamal Murray will have the responsibility of covering Paul and they won't have much success. The Nuggets have ranked 24th in the league against PG's, allowing nearly 48 FP per game. Paul is still a bit under-owned in my opinion, as I think he is just as good of a DFS player as Stephen Curry, who is cheaper on both sites. Paul should be sitting around $10k on both sites and I absolutely love him on DK at just $8.8k. Paul should see around 35 minutes and hs been one of the most consistent players in the league this season when healthy. He looks to be at full health and the Clippers won't hesitate to push him for big minutes in a close game. With a floor of 40 and a ceiling of 65, I will have exposure everywhere.
Derrick Rose FD - $6800 DK - $6700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.89 DK - 35.85
Jeremy Lin FD - $5900 DK - $6000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.81 DK - 30.7
Lin and Rose are probably 2 of the last players anyone would of thought would be playing the way they are recently. They have both been absolutely tremendous, consistently hitting 30 with a few flashes of upside. They will face off with each other tonight in what figures to be a pretty high-scoring affair. Rose is a bit more expensive and it makes sense as he's ben a bit more consistent and has been seeing more minutes. For that reason, I prefer him in cash games. Lin on the other hand, is a guy I have a ton of tournament exposure to. He has a ton of upside and has been hitting cash game value in less than 30 minutes. He will continue to see more run and his price will slowly rise. Make sure to take advantage before his price rises and you need 40 fantasy points for value to be paid off. Neither of these guys are good defenders in the slightest and they will both be able to get open shots. All in all, Rose in cash and Lin in tournaments.
Mike Conley FD - $7700 DK - $7600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 38.57 DK - 40.75
Mike Conley, Mr. Consistent. After another 45 fantasy point performance last night, I'm convinced this guy is a machine. On the real, he is just a very consistent PG who does a fantastic job of controlling the pace of the game and doing what he wants with the flow on offense. This match-up with the Hawks is a pristine one as Dennis Schroder is absolutely atrocious on defense, as evidenced by his 28th FPPG allowed to opposing PG's. Conley definitely doesn't have the same upside as the guys priced around him but also has a much smaller range in scores and a very high floor. Conley makes fro an easy cash game play tonight and I don't hate him in tournaments either. he should see about 35 minutes in one of the best match-ups in basketball. If there's one PG I'm willing to trust with a good match-up it's Mike Conley.
Shooting Guard
Will Barton FD - $5300 DK - $5300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.81 DK - 32.95
Gary Harris FD - $5900 DK - $5800
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.28 DK - 28.94
Shooting guard is definitely one of the weaker positions on the slate, with very few options you can fully trust. Some people may look to DMar DeRozan as a high priced option, I'm very scared of Andre Roberson and his elite perimeter defense. I'm sure DeRozan will be just fine but I don't see him having the same upside as he does on most night. We are going to look to pay down instead and this Nuggets game looks like the perfect spot. Both Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari have already been ruled out, so the minutes and shots will be up for grabs. Harris is one of the safer plays on the board and I'll have him in 100% of my cash games. Barton is definitely a bit more risky in general, though he'll have a hard time messing up 35 minutes in a good match-up at his depressed price tag. Both of these guys should be popular but I'll just make sure I'm over the field. The Nuggets are a team you will want to look at a ton tonight as both of those guys take up a ton of usage and minutes.
J.J. Redick FD - $4000 DK - $4300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 21.67 DK - 23.8
We will stay in Denver here and take a look at J.J. Redick. Riddick isn't nearly as exciting as Harris or Barton but his price reflects that. At just $4k on both sites, Redick will need to get you 20-25 in cash games He should do that with ease against a Nuggets team that is shorthanded on the perimeter. Redick is one of the best 3 point shooters in the league nd Barton/Harris will have a tough time staying with him after DeAndre Jordan puts a shoulder into them. Redick is also much better with Paul on the floor, as he relies heavily on the amazing court vision and passing ability of CP3. Redick is a great cash game play and you can be sure that he will keep you in the game. He is a bit more uncertain in tournaments but has shown the upside in the past so I don't hate it. With that being said, Barton and Harris are preferred.
Small Forward
Carmelo Anthony FD - $8400 DK - $8100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 41.44 DK - 43.65
Kristaps Porzingis is currently doubtful to play and I would expect him to get listed out early in the day. Anthony has taken advantage when given the opportunity this season and I see no reason to think it won't continue, especially in this match-up. The Nets are the absolute worst team in the league against SF's, allowing over 50 FP per game. They have been even worse since trading away Bojan Bogdanovic, who was one of their better overall defenders. Anthony will have his way with this defense and I see no way I don't pay up for him. With only a few good options at the position, Anthony is currently in every single lineup of mine. If Porzingis gets ruled out, it will remain that way. This is a hill I'm definitely willing to stand on tonight. Anthony will be very highly owned and rightfully so. Jump aboard.
Vince Carter FD - $3900 DK - $4200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 21.06 DK - 22.72
It may be a bit scary to roster Vince Carter, I know. The problem is there isn't many other options. Outside of LeBron and Melo, small forward is absolutely atrocious. It's also extremely hard to pay up for LeBron, so you have to choose at least 1 other guy. Carter has seen 29+ minutes in 2 striaight games since Parsons got injures, so it looks like he's at least the temporary fill-in man. He can still shoot the ball alittle hbit and does a good enough job on defense to stay on the court. While the Hawks are a pretty boring match-up, Carter isn't a guy you really have to worry about with ace. You are just realistically hoping for 20 fantasy points and everything else is gravy.
Terrence Ross FD - $4100 DK - $4700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 20.04 DK - 21.67
Just when we though Terrence Ross was consistent, Terrence Ross happened. He has gone ahead and been absolutely atrocious in 5 straight starts, topping 20 fantasy points exactly 0 times in that stretch. This comes after a tim ewhere ROss hit value in 4 of 5 games, topping 30 in 3 of them. He is always going to be a very inconstsent player and it's just something you have t live with. I assum ehe will see some pretty good minutes here against the Warriors as they should be able to use his speed and shot pretty well. he could certainly get hot and be the must-have guy at SF< though it could easily go the other ways as wellWith that being said, small forward is really bad, so I see the merit in cash games.
Power Forward
Blake Griffin FD - $9500 DK - $8200
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 44.28 DK - 46.19
You can probably tell by now that this is a game we will be targeting a ton. With a 224 total and a 1.5 spread, you have to give it a lot of attention. The Nuggets have been one of the weakest interior defenses in the league for years now. While Jokic has given them a crazy offensive punch, he is nowhere near the defensive presence. Griffin will be able to dominate down low and I would expect one of his big games. Griffin didn't see extended minutes last night and I would expect a full workload tonight unless noted otherwise before the game. With Chandler out, Hernangomez will see a lot of minutes at PF and Griffin should be able to dominate. Hernangomez is far too small and inexperienced to stay wit players of Griffin's magnitude. Griffin has flashed his upside a few times and he'll bring it out a few more times before the season ends. He has a floor of 40 here with a ceiling that stands over 70 fantasy points. With power forward being somewhat weak, Griffin is a guy I will have a ton of exposure too. Update: Blake is sitting tonight along with DeAndre Jordan. Marreese Speights becomes a fantastic play tonight.
Paul Millsap FD - $7600 DK - $7100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 36.36 DK - 38.43
I know, you don't often see many bigs recommended against the Grizzlies. Paul Millsap is just a little bit different. As a guy who sees close to 39 minutes on a nightly basis and stays above 35 fantasy points, I'm not too worried about a match-up with Zach Randolph and Jamychal Green. Both Randolph and Green are average defenders at this point that are held up by Gasol and Tony Allen. Millsap is a guy I'm willing to play in cash games here, though I doubt I have him on any tournament rosters. The upside really isn;t there and I would much rather take a chance on a Hernangomez and pay up elsewhere. However, you can't go wrong in cash. he will put up his 30-40 fantasy points and move on to the next game. If that's what you're looking for, Paul Millsap is your guy.
Juancho Hernangomez FD - $3600 DK - $3900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.89 DK - 26.07
Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari have both been ruled out, which means about 70 minutes are up for grabs at the 3 and 4. With Mike Miller being the only other official 3, you can expect Hernangomez to pick up a ton of minutes. I expect around 30 tonight and I really wouldn't be surprised to see more. He has insane upside, especially priced close to the minimum on both sites. The Clippers are a pretty good match-up as well, as they will need big bodies to contest with the Clippers bigs. Blake Griffin will cover Hernangomez, which should be a quality match-up. Hernangomez is a bit quicker tan Griffin, but may not have the strength or IQ advantage. Hernangomez is extremely safe at his price and has plenty of upside if given the minutes.
Center
Guillermo Hernangomez FD - $6000 DK - $6200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.7 DK - 36.84
With Porzingis presumably out, Hernangomez is a fantastic play at center. Seeing nearly 30 minutes per game with Porzingis in, you have to think he sees at least 35 tonight. While Kyle O'Quinn can certainly steal some minutes, he will rarely see over 2o and doesn't force a real threat onto Hernangomez. Like Carmelo and Rose, Hernangomez has a dream match-up against the 76ers. Brook Lopez is definitely one of the better perimeter defenders, but lacks the ability or want to play defense or rebound at all. Hernangomez will have no problem doing either and he will rack up the fantasy points. The Knicks have done a great job of getting him involved on offense, giving him post and perimeter looks on the court. Sitting at just $6k on both sites, Hernangomez is a guy who could hit value in the 3rd quarter if he sees the minutes we are expecting. He makes for a tremendous cash game and tournament option once Kristaps Porzingis is ruled out.
Nikola Vucevic FD - $7700 DK - $7300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 36.26 DK - 37.89
Vucevic is just an upside play here as his floor is pretty scary in this match-up. The Warriors could easily go small which will result in Vucevic getting around 20 minutes. However, if the Warriors go small and Vicevic continues dominating, the Warriors will be forced to go back to Pachulia. If that happens, you have yourself a GPP-cash on your hands. Vuc has shown his upside in the past and he is far better than anyone on this Warriors team down low. If this game flow goes the right way, the sky is the limit for Vuc. Just make sure you be careful in cash games as you could be very disappointed when it's all said and done.
Mason Plumlee FD - $5800 DK - $5500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.78 DK - 33.04
Hernangomez is the guy I am going to in most spots, which I've said a few times already. With that being said, you have to love Plumlee in tournaments. The Clippers love to run out 2 bigs in Jordan and Griffin, which may force the Nuggets to play Plumlee at the 5 and Jokic at the 4. Plumlee has shown his upside in the past and this isn't a horrible match-up. DeAndre Jordan is an intimidating presence down low but lacks the skill and speed to stay with a guy like Plumlee. Plumlee will hit his upside if his shot is falling, which can make him deadly at times. All in all, this game has a lot of different ways to attack and Plumlee is a great way to cap it off in tournaments.
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Blake and Jordan OUT!
There’s so much vaule on this slate. You’re a fool if you don’t roster Westbrook tonight.
there are plenty of options at SF. what are you talking about?
Barnes
Hollis-Jefferson
Lance Thomas
Gordon Hayward
ummmmmmmm
Griffin and Jordan out so Speights at PF
Maybe it is a given but the triple dub king Russell Westbrook even at a massive $13,500 is in play for me tonight. No Lowry to slow down Westbrook and in the L10 Westbrook scored less than 60 FD points only twice with 48.7 and 59 pts. What makes the future MVP (yeah I said it!) appealing is that he has 80 FD pt upside.
Elfrid Payton $7,200 and Dennis Schroder $7,400 both have very elevated prices but as of late have been playing some great ball. Payton maybe a Westbrook lite has been averaging a torrid 43 FD pts over his L5. Earlier in January he dropped 42.8 fantasy pts. A course we should use caution since GSW is favored by 13.5 pts and this is the same guy that can’t shoot and finds absurd ways to turnover the ball. Then there is the German, Dennis Schroder who is averaging 38 FD pts in his L5 which is great but he gets MEM who is never easy but he put on skates for 36 FD last time out and the insane thing is the German has a massive 32% usage rating over the L5. Tough to say which one if not both will go off but defiantly take a look but be careful these dudes are like playing with fire.
Jamal Murray at $3,800 i simply a great play tonight. Without Gallo and Chandler he averages just shy of a fantasy pt per minute on most sites. Upper 20’s for minutes seems reasonable and the last game out where he got 29 minutes he registered almost 31 FD pts. 8X tonight is not out of the realm of possibility. Did I mention he is $3,800!?
Isaiah Whitehead $3,500, Spencer Dinwiddie $3,500, Caris LeVert $4,400. Listen, Net’s coach Kenny Atkinson drives everyone insane with his 20 minute allocation to all of his players which leaves us guessing which obscure D-League talent player will go off tonight? Well thing might be a little more clear now Kilpatrick is out for tonight, not crystal clear just not third world country brown water murky. Either way the listed three guys have all shown that they can put up 6X+ due to the fact that they get to face the NYK who are horrid against guards. Defiantly GPP but I could see at least one of these guys being in a winning GPP lineup.
The GOAT Mike Conley just Gronk Smashed 46 FD pts last night and get a nice match up against the German tonight. At $7,700 I like him for cash and GPP. I have not hard facts but it wouldn’t be surprising is one of the MEM guys (Mike or Marc) sat, per speculation but keep that in mind before lock.
I like Thompson (SG) who has been stroking the ball as of late but the game could be a possible blowout with Orlando. DFSR has covered the DEN SGs who I love, and I suspect Barton to be chalk and probably to go off. The one guy I can add is Norman Powell a guy who has really cashed in during Toronto’s injury woes. If Carroll sits I love Powell at SG at a perfectly priced $3,900 FD. Remember this was a guy that peaked at $5K on FD and has 30+ pt upside.
LeBron James price drop is great the UTAH match up not, but I think this makes LeBron a sneaky GPP play. This is the same God that put up 55.9, 60.6, and 60.4 pts in a 5 game span. At the $10,500 price this puts James in a nice GPP territory (Fingers crossed low ownership).
On the other side we have Gordon Hayward at $7,800. He has 6X CLE this year for 40+ pts and with maybe no Hood (doubtful) Hayward could go off. I like Hayward as a swerve off Melo since I assume Melo will be chalk teh doubtful Porzingis.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at $4,400 I like as long as he can keep his grubby paws to himself. Averaging 25 FD pts this year against the Knicks I like RHJ for cash, only if Kenny could play this guy 30 minutes…
Joe Ingles $4,000 no Hood possibly. Joey has averaged 21.42 in his L5 and get minutes in the mid twenties. I see Joe more of a cash game play with the possibility of 6X.
Lance Thomas $4,300 is intriguing. 32 minutes both of the L2 games. He got hot during the last game against the Nets and did 6X. His end of February start of March has been very solid with only a few blemishes. Defiantly not for the faint of heart but a GPP play for sure.
Matt Barnes $4,300 6X in the last two. You got to ask yourself does Barnes keep ripping down 9 boards a game? No signs of Durant anytime soon and Iggy (GPP) seems neutered, I think if Barnes gets 20+ minutes 6X is doable, but defiantly a GPP play for me. Maybe he see more run in a possible blowout tonight.
Nikola Jokic $10,600, so go Gallo and no Chandler which makes the Jokers usage and fantasy points per minute sky rocket. What also helps there is no Blake and DeAndre to contest his shots. Cash and GPP this guy ain’t no joke.
Serge Ibaka $6,000. Has played like total poo latley. If you buy into revenge games then please see Ibaka’s game against his former OKC team where he torched them for 47.8 FD pts. For people who think revenge games are foolish then I can you fading him. After last nights Lou Williams revenge, which was tilting since I faded I think I am going to get at least 1-2 shares of Ibaka on a GPP.
Marreese Speights $3,500 no Griffin no DeAndre. Min priced and I think he will be chalk but maybe for good reason since this guy has always been more of scoring F/C and can put pts up in bunches and the last time he did start he hit 5.8X in 27 minutes. I think 27 or so minutes seem right tonight and will be an almost must play for me.
Taj Gibson $4,200 started the L3 games. L2 he has hit 5X and 6X. Obviously with Westy, Gibson has been relegated to put backs and rebounds, however last game against Brooklyn Gibson’s usage sky rockets to 30%+. Maybe that was all part of Taj showing off back home in Brooklyn or maybe that was Westy finally getting him more involved. GPP for sure but enticing.
Zaza Pachulia $4,300 get’s the defenseless Vucevic. I think is Zaza sees 20+ minutes hitting value is very realistic since when he gets 20+ minutes he pretty much is a lock for making 5X-6X.
Kyle O’Quinn $4,200. Let’s face it if you look at the stats alone you will question why Kyle is still on the roster period, but when Porzingis is out is one of the biggest benefactors in terms of fantasy pts per minute. It is true that Melo’s usage sky rockets but his pts per minutes pretty much stay at 1. Kyle is no doubt a GPP play but maybe just maybe a sneaky one.
Joseph your advice is amazing! Do you run a site?
tons of value!….STM
I’m not playing Carmelo tonight, with porzingis off the court the opposite of what you think should happen, happens. His points go down
Funny you say this, his usage sky rockets to over 30% but his fantasy points per minute remains around 1.0. Best of luck tonight!
Subscribe to Joseph Rosero for 3 arbys sliders and a small fry. Luckily for me ive got a coupon and from 2-5 they are only a $1!!!
We have the meats! BTW Roast Beef and Cheddar Sandwich with Horseradish Sauce pure crack!
Also who will likely gaurd Tony Allen vs hawks?
I also like the Guillermo Hernangomez vs Lopez match up. Last meeting Lopez iced GH and was un-guard-able just raining threes. The game prior GH had the upper hand and Lopez was kept quiet. Correlation wise I am not big on playing too big men from opposing teams. With this being said I like playing Guillermo or Lopez but not both with maybe a slight edge to GH since no Porzingis…
Any help on who to chose from at SG Vince carter or joe Johnson I’m leaning more toward carter??
Thanks again, Austyn and Joseph! I keep hoping that people aren’t reading the comments section! I have not been able to win big on DK and I’m wondering if it is just because of the rooms I am entering. The large rooms with the big purses just seem overwhelmed with knowledgeable players. Even when I have a great room putting up over 300 points I am lucky to double up my money. Would you say that playing in the pricier rooms with lower purses and attendance would allow this information to be more successful? I just feel like the info here from you all should give me more of an edge to win than it has been. I am suspicious that either I am just entering the wrong rooms, or these sites are indeed “rigged” as the online haters like to claim.
What is your DFS goals? To win a GPP for life changing money, making a steady ROI, or just play for fun?
For me I play FD & DK usually at the start or the very end of the year due to the fact that most casual fans tend to play then and are willing to throw “x” amount into a GPP or 50/50. During this part of the season cashing in a 50/50 NBA contest can be a sweat if your playing on larger sites. On the other side sites like FD and DK have an immense amount of people and are really the only two sites that can guarantee/fill large GPP 100,000 to 1,000,000 winnings nightly.
With this being said try using Fantasy Factor, Draft, and Yahoo DFS. These sites will not have large pool GPP contests but they also will have a lot less sharks.
DFSR does not offer an optimizer or picks for these types of sites so learning lineup/salary management for each type of site is huge IMO. If you have any questions let me know.
And this is what we face tonight with Russell at $13,500 FD w/ a cap of $60k and and even on Fantasy Factor he is $14,500 with a $50k cap. I think you can play Russell on most any site w/ the value out right now but like Doug and James were saying today on the pod you really hope he goes nut for 70+ anything less is a big let down at this massive salary. On the other hand on Yahoo I am not finding it an issue to get Westbrook in without compromising my build as much but on Yahoo he is $64 (32%) out of a $200 salary cap.
Hi Joseph,
Thanks a lot for the info, again! : )
Life changing money is what I am after. I am going through some medical issues I can’t afford and I am trying my best to do it myself. This is just a pie in the sky, wouldn’t it be nice, kind of thing for me. I will try out your advice. Thanks again.
Hi Tim. Thanks for the info. I never really thought it was rigged, but sometimes its the easiest way to feel when an awesome room does poorly. lol I will take your advice on which rooms to choose. Thank you again.
Justin only play with what you can afford to loose, I wish you well and I hope whatever you are going through is resolved and you can live a healthy and happy life.
Keep playing, the only rigging is the capital to play multiple entries, I have taken down multiple entriy .and single entry gpp s. You can do it knowledge is good. Single entry and 3 max may be the best way but the big tourneys aren’t impossible.
Mr Rasero , , what do your core players look lite today for gpp slate on dk and fd
Mr. Rasero is my fathers name, call me Joseph. check out tomorrows article for DFSR and my early thoughts on the slate
LeBron is going to burn me tonight. Go figure.