Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

03/19/2017
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/20/17

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Point Guards

Stephen CurryStephen Curry FD - $9900 DK - $9400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 47 DK - 51.3
There are a lot of great, expensive options on tonight’s slate. That’s what happens when you have a bunch of fast-paced, scoring heavy squads facing off against each other. This is a fantastic night just to be a fan and the OKC/ GSW game is close to appointment television. Without Durant the Warriors aren’t as explosive a team and this one should be close. I think Westbrook is a little too expensive all things considered, but Curry is still coming at somewhat of a value. He’s gotten his deep ball groove back in the last three, shooting 46% from behind the arc on his way to blowouts in the last two. This game has a 221 over/under to open and OKC’s favored by two. It’s a great game to stack and I think you see major minutes from Curry.

Dennis SchroderDennis Schroder FD - $7200 DK - $7100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 35.26 DK - 37.9
He’s not all that good a point guard in real life but he should be seen as a solid option tonight considering the Hawks are without Paul Millsap (and to a lesser extent Kent Bazemore). Schroder sees a moderate usage bump without Millsap on the floor and should be in line for a few more shots against a Charlotte team about league average defending opposing point guards. The one knock against Schroder here is with the minutes. Too often he’ll see a rather steep minutes’ reduction though some of that has been due to blowouts in the short term. He got up 14 shots in only 28 minutes against the Blazers on Saturday and I do see that as the floor for his field goal attempts. Not a total bargain, but point guard is one of the weaker value positions on the board today.

George HillGeorge Hill FD - $6100 DK - $6000
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 29.86 DK - 31.7
There’s some chance you see lineups made up more of middle tier plays today because it should be a bit tougher to fit in the huge salaries without a ton of possible punts (though of course things always seem to change there). Hill is in that range is never exactly the most exciting DFS play on the board. But he has a decent matchup against a league average Indy team against opposing ones. Hill seems a slight usage bump without Rodney Hood and the Jazz are very much in win-now mode. The key for Hill is seeing minutes in the mid 30’s. There’s no guarantee on that even in a close game though you can somewhat live with it on his price. He’s played 37 in two of his last four (but played only 31 in the other two). It’s a close one with Hill but he’s a fine cash game option at the weakest position tonight.

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Shooting Guards

James HardenJames Harden FD - $12200 DK - $12700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 60.8 DK - 65.56
This is going to look awfully similar to the write up we had on Harden the other night when he faced Denver. It’s a fantastic matchup against a team he just flat out destroyed on Saturday. Harden put up an absurd 40/10/10 line good for the play of the night. He was the entire Rockets’ team and while I don’t think you can expect the same performance he does represent an incredibly high floor. I suspect folks are making the decision between Harden and Westbrook tonight in the elite price tier. I’ll take Harden for the $1K+ discount in a game that should see a ton of points. Denver is second to last in the league in defensive efficiency this season thanks in large part to games like Harden put up the other night.

Klay ThompsonKlay Thompson FD - $7000 DK - $7200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 34.17 DK - 37.38
Klay’s heating up! His last four games have been really something to behold from a shooting point of view. He’s knocking down 54% from the field and a crazy 53% fro behind the arc. That’s good for a 27 point per game average including two that saw reduced minutes because of blowouts. Except high 30’s minutes in terms of run tonight in what should be a shootout. He hasn’t see much of a price climb even with the recent performance and comes as a solid value play. He’ll likely draw Oladipo for much of the game, but I’m not concerned there.

Evan FournierEvan Fournier FD - $5400 DK - $5600
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 27.46 DK - 30.17
He could fit a specific need tonight if needing to round out lineups along the middle pricing tier. Philly’s struggled this season against SG/SF types allowing league average scoring but above average rebounding and assists. Fournier’s put up 18 or more shots in two of his last three games and we want him jacking up threes in this one. He has solid scoring upside (at these prices) if he’s bombing from beyond the arc and scoring is the name of his game in this offense. He’s isn’t a favorite to add much (beyond some steals here and there) elsewhere along the fantasy line. But I like the chance at solid minutes and do think he draws a good matchup in the Sixers.

James HardenJames Harden FD - $12200 DK - $12700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 60.8 DK - 65.56
This is going to look awfully similar to the write up we had on Harden the other night when he faced Denver. It’s a fantastic matchup against a team he just flat out destroyed on Saturday. Harden put up an absurd 40/10/10 line good for the play of the night. He was the entire Rockets’ team and while I don’t think you can expect the same performance he does represent an incredibly high floor. I suspect folks are making the decision between Harden and Westbrook tonight in the elite price tier. I’ll take Harden for the $1K+ discount in a game that should see a ton of points. Denver is second to last in the league in defensive efficiency this season thanks in large part to games like Harden put up the other night.

Klay ThompsonKlay Thompson FD - $7000 DK - $7200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 34.17 DK - 37.38
Klay’s heating up! His last four games have been really something to behold from a shooting point of view. He’s knocking down 54% from the field and a crazy 53% fro behind the arc. That’s good for a 27 point per game average including two that saw reduced minutes because of blowouts. Except high 30’s minutes in terms of run tonight in what should be a shootout. He hasn’t see much of a price climb even with the recent performance and comes as a solid value play. He’ll likely draw Oladipo for much of the game, but I’m not concerned there.

Evan FournierEvan Fournier FD - $5400 DK - $5600
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 27.46 DK - 30.17
He could fit a specific need tonight if needing to round out lineups along the middle pricing tier. Philly’s struggled this season against SG/SF types allowing league average scoring but above average rebounding and assists. Fournier’s put up 18 or more shots in two of his last three games and we want him jacking up threes in this one. He has solid scoring upside (at these prices) if he’s bombing from beyond the arc and scoring is the name of his game in this offense. He’s isn’t a favorite to add much (beyond some steals here and there) elsewhere along the fantasy line. But I like the chance at solid minutes and do think he draws a good matchup in the Sixers.

Strongly consider Tim Hardaway if he draws the start for Bazemore. Gary Harris is also a solid play if Gallo sits again.

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Small Forwards

Joe InglesJoe Ingles FD - $4200 DK - $5000
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 23.2 DK - 25.31
He’s been the clear beneficiary of the Rodney Hood injury and assuming the latter is out again on Monday then you can fire Ingles right back into cash game lineups. He’s played 36 minutes each of the last two games as a starter and averaged an 11/4/5. That’s more than enough to get the job done on these salaries. He doesn’t have enormous upside considering where he falls in the offensive chain of command, but the minutes offset it as his versatility keeps him on the floor for long stretches. If Hood sits again you’ll see him again as one of the more popular plays on the slate because of the salary relief.

Thabo SefoloshaThabo Sefolosha FD - $3600 DK - $3900
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 22 DK - 23.16
It sure feels like he should see a bunch more minutes with both Millsap and Kent Bazemore sitting this one out. Though that wasn’t the case Saturday against the Blazers, I think it’s reasonable to expect at least 30 minutes out of Thabo if the game stays close. He’s a punt play plain and simple on the assumption that the Hawks being so shorthanded from key minutes’ guys will need him on the court for longer. Thabo doesn’t excel in any one particular area, but he’s coming at or around the minimums. Sometimes that’s good enough to get the job done on a night with a bunch of enticing expensive options.

Trevor ArizaTrevor Ariza FD - $5000 DK - $5300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 25.19 DK - 26.93
It seemed like just about everyone on the Rockets except Harden was a disappointment against the Nuggets on Saturday. But that doesn’t mean we should write them off tonight. While there’s no early line on the game (presumably waiting on the Gallo news) we can assume it will be right up there with the OKC/ GSW game in terms of implied points. Ariza still has a high minutes floor and can score when the three is falling. He didn’t see many looks (only 4, mesh) in the last game but he’s averaging more than double that on the season. Here’s to hoping others look at that last game as a one-to-one comp for what the expectation is tonight. Ariza has big upside at these prices.

Consider Terrence Ross on the cheap

Power Forwards

Ersan IlyasovaErsan Ilyasova FD - $4500 DK - $5000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 27.17 DK - 29.01
This follows some of the same line of thinking as the Thabo write up in that it sure feels like Ersan should see more minutes (potentially a lot) with Millsap and Baze off the court tonight. He only played 27 on Saturday, but that game was well out of hand by the fourth and that was the end of his run. He still managed an borderline great (at his prices) 23/4/1/2/1 line. The especially encouraging piece was his 11 shot attempts showing he can get looks when running with the starters. I think you see him as one of the more popular plays on FanDuel tonight considering we already know Millsap's status and Ersan is a relatively known quantity at this point.

Richaun HolmesRichaun Holmes FD - $4800 DK - $5100
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 24.16 DK - 25.2
Richaun was well on his way to an unreal game against the Mavs on Friday until the Sixers inexplicably blew out Dallas and the starters sat. Then yesterday he played 29 minutes filling in for an injured Okafor and 8/7/5/4/2 to more than pay off his price. At these salaries it’s all about the minutes for Holmes who will likely be a chalk play at least on FanDuel if he enters the game as the starter. He can put up numbers on a per minute basis and the Magic don’t have much in the way of interior defense when Vuce is playing major minutes at center.

Draymond GreenDraymond Green FD - $8100 DK - $7900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 38.74 DK - 41.21
With the Warriors causing to blowouts in the last two Green hasn’t been asked to do too terribly much. The games were easy and he only played 25 and 30 minutes respectively. Don’t expect that the be the case tonight and if it stays close, his defense versatility could mean upwards up 40 minutes if the game breaks right. Drayman does need all of those minutes at these prices considering he’s the (distant) third option on offense after Steph and Klay. He makes his bones on the glass and with about the best assist numbers you’ll see out of the power forward position. He’s not a lock in cash games and I do think a bunch of cheap value will crop up, but I see him as a solid floor guy.

Strongly consider Nikola Jokic and Blake Griffin on the expensive end.

Ersan IlyasovaErsan Ilyasova FD - $4500 DK - $5000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 27.17 DK - 29.01
This follows some of the same line of thinking as the Thabo write up in that it sure feels like Ersan should see more minutes (potentially a lot) with Millsap and Baze off the court tonight. He only played 27 on Saturday, but that game was well out of hand by the fourth and that was the end of his run. He still managed an borderline great (at his prices) 23/4/1/2/1 line. The especially encouraging piece was his 11 shot attempts showing he can get looks when running with the starters. I think you see him as one of the more popular plays on FanDuel tonight considering we already know Millsaps’ status and Ersan is a relatively known quantity at this point.

Richaun HolmesRichaun Holmes FD - $4800 DK - $5100
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 24.16 DK - 25.2
Richaun was well on his way to an unreal game against the Mavs on Friday until the Sixers inexplicably blew out Dallas and the starters sat. Then yesterday he played 29 minutes filling in for an injured Okafor and 8/7/5/4/2 to more than pay off his price. At these salaries it’s all about the minutes for Holmes who will likely be a chalk play at least on FanDuel if he enters the game as the starter. He can put up numbers on a per minute basis and the Magic don’t have much in the way of interior defense when Vuce is playing major minutes at center.

Draymond GreenDraymond Green FD - $8100 DK - $7900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 38.74 DK - 41.21
With the Warriors causing to blowouts in the last two Green hasn’t been asked to do too terribly much. The games were easy and he only played 25 and 30 minutes respectively. Don’t expect that the be the case tonight and if it stays close, his defense versatility could mean upwards up 40 minutes if the game breaks right. Drayman does need all of those minutes at these prices considering he’s the (distant) third option on offense after Steph and Klay. He makes his bones on the glass and with about the best assist numbers you’ll see out of the power forward position. He’s not a lock in cash games and I do think a bunch of cheap value will crop up, but I see him as a solid floor guy.

Strongly consider Nikola Jokic and Blake Griffin on the expensive end.

Jason SmithJuan Hernangomez if Gallo is out again.

 

Centers

Dwight HowardDwight Howard FD - $6800 DK - $7000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 36.26 DK - 38.21
Did you ever think you’d see this many Hawks in a picks article? Me neither. But that’s what happens when the best player on a team (and another auxiliary part) are going to sit out and leave somewhere in the high 50’s in the minutes on the table. Howard’s price is fair across the industry and he should see both a minutes and usage uptick without Millsap. Charlotte’s been hurt on the glass this season by opposing centers are allowing about 3% more rebounding than league average to the position. Dwight was one of the few Hawks who saw his full compliment of minutes against the Blazers on Saturday and put up a 14/10/3/5 (steals) that brought him to value. The defensive numbers are likely outliers, but you can almost pencil him in for a double-double if the minutes are there.

Mason PlumleeMason Plumlee FD - $6100 DK - $6600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.67 DK - 37.67
It sure seems like Plumlee will continue starting even when Gallo returns to the court (which could be today). Mason's been real good in the short term, averaging 33 minutes per game over his last three and a 12/10 in that time period. With Wilson Chandler still out there's room for minutes in the front court and Plumlee's recent play suggests he sticks in the starting lineup for at least the short term. He's seen a moderate price climb but I'm still very much buying in this matchup.

Strongly consider Bismarck Biyombo if Vucevic sits tonight.

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22 Visitor Comments

  1. Why do you suggest George Hill every time he plays? He’s paid below 4× value 3 of his last 5 games. He also leaves games often. He’s far from a safe pick.

    • Right and he lost minutes in one of those games because of a blowout. With implied close spreads he sees high 30’s minutes and sees a usage bump without Hood. Pretty simple really.

      • Why wouldn’t a player like prince be recommendEd that almost 50% of DFS Lineups chose anyway? Wouldn’t yall recommend a good pick like that over a hit and miss like hill?

    • Not a huge Hill guy or a revenge game conspiracy believer but this is Hill’s first game back to IND. The last game against IND he torched them for 45 FD pts. Not a game I love touching but Hill and Gobert in my eyes are nice plays if Hood sits.

      • you going to put up your analysis today? 😉

  2. He mentioned that the jazz need a win! So, he suggested hill! If I read that right!

    • They suggest Hill every time the Jazz play. I hope a lot of people read this article and jump on George Hill. Cause he won’t be in any of my lineups

      • Let em know Ryan!!!

  3. Usually is the same people always in these picks. George hill is 💩 And is always mentioned

  4. If you don’t like the picks why continue to use the site? George Hill has paid off for me multiple times, and it is a good spot for him to again. I hope he drops 40!

  5. G Hill narrative too. 48 DK points vs Indiana last game.

  6. I understand George Hill can have a great game. Im not saying he can’t. Im.just saying more often than not he pays below value. That seems odd to suggest a player like that every time. I also find it odd to suggest Biyombo if Vucevic sits. Vucevic hasn’t missed a game in almost 2 weeks and isn’t listed on an Injury report. Some of the comments about players makes me wonder if the guys on this site even watch bball.

    • I don’t see Hill all the time, just when he’s relevant. I only use this site daily though. I don’t think Hill tosses DFSR royalty money to drop his name on the Opti list if that’s whats being implied ha ha

  7. Ruben Badillo‏ @1RubenBadillo
    Nikola Vucevic is nursing an Achilles injury and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the 76ers tonight.

  8. George Hill is always a GPP. No “expert” in their right mind would recommend him in cash games.jameer nelson torched the Rockets the other night and is $600 cheaper on Fanduel. Huge O/U in that game. chandler and Gallo out. sooooo huh?

  9. Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic did not practice Sunday because his right Achilles tendon flared up.
    What It Means:

    Not a good sign for Vucevic’s availability on Monday as he sat out four games with the injury just two weeks ago. He also sprained his ankle on Thursday, likely causing the flare up in his Achilles. If he is unable to play, Bismack Biyombo will jump into the starting lineup with Stephen Zimmerman backing him up.

  10. My big guys tonight are Tim Hardaway Jr, Richaun Holmes and Ersan Iiyasova. Going 100 % on them and getting Westbrook and Harden in.

  11. Most players, in fact, all players pay less than value most of the time. For value to cash you need at least > 5x on DK for cash games and probably > 5.4 in Tourneys. This site recommends mostly cash game plays. I use the optimizer and sometimes it hits, sometimes it needs modified. The biggest problem is when the optimizer uses “value” plays. One night it was Rozier and he scored 13 and last night was Frazier and he scored 18. Of course Rozier had a monster game the next game and Frazier had good games the night before. You also have to consider blowouts. For example: DeRozan and Ibaka yesterday. Give them another 10 minutes and they crush value. If you think the game will be a blowout, don’t play the recommendations.

  12. George Hill is the type of guy that can win you a GPP. A couple of weeks ago, I looked at the top of the dribbler and see who won. I had a pretty good score, so as usual, I wanted to see what the difference was between my line up and the top guy. He had George Hill. That’s the type of guy that no one likes to take, but he puts up 30 and 10, you are looking good. I have one line up with Jameer as my other with Hill.

    One think I’m trying to do is take more chances, since that’s what some experts say. It’s not finding the 3,500 guy that gets 40, it’s the low owned good player that explodes.

  13. Totally Martin, that’s one thing I see a lot. People make their “value plays”. If a guy is 4,000 and he gets 22 points, that’s not going to kill you, but you aren’t winning anything with that. You need upside.

  14. I just don’t buy that. Doesn’t matter what type of contest I’m playing, I want to score as many points as possible. Even guys that get a ton of minutes aren’t “safe”. I’ve played the Brandon Ingram and Soloman Hill types that get 30-40 minutes and put up 7 points.

  15. A lot of pending injury news pending so a lot of this may change throughout the day or new value may pop up.

    Elfrid Payton $7,300. DFSR has presented Dennis Schroder who I like but, let me present you Payton who is $100 more and like Dennis has been playing well lately. In his L2 weeks Payton has been averaging 39.83 FD pts versus Schroder’s 34.37 FD pts. The Magic get the better DVP match up against Philly and this game has a higher projected total at 214 compared to the 203 in the CHA ATL game. Finally if you believe in revenge games the 76ers were the team that originally drafted Payton.

    Jamal Murray $4,400. While Jameer Nelson broke out against HOU last game I still think we can target Murray if Chandler & Gallinari sit. The game has a massive 236 projected total and Murray has been averaging 24 FD pts over his L3 and has hit double digit pts in six straight games. I don’t think Jameer gets almost 40 minutes this game and we see more Murray as long as the DEN SF’s sit.

    Russell Westbrook $13,400. The massive price makes Westy a GPP but a very good one. Against GSW he has his 62+ FD pts in his L2 games. He has hit 67+ FD pts 5 times since the beginning of February and has two 80+ pts in this time span. I can defiantly see fading him in cash but in a GPP it be tough to find a guy with a bigger ceiling than him tonight.

    Kemba Walker $8,000 gets a terrific match up against ATL and while the price is too high and recency bias will defiantly push most people to fade Walker, I see him as a nice GPP play because in his L2 against ATL he has averaged 39 FD pts. With this being said I like Kemba more for cash since his $8,000 tag limits him a tad.

    Sergio Rodriguez $3,700. You could go w/ TJ who has averaged 1 fantasy pt per minute without Okafor and Embiid not on the floor, but I like the magician at $3,700. L2 games he has put up 23.10 and 26.80 FD pts and against ORL this year he has averaged 23.9 FD pts in three games. A solid semi punt play.

    Jeff Teague $6,600 has been playing poorly but at $6.6K this is his lowest price since last November. This is the same guy that peaked $8,100 earlier this year. The Utah match up and the low projected total will scare many away, but I think this makes Teague a nice GPP play since he has had some success against Utah registering 39 FD pts this season and 38 FD pts last year against the Jazz. Tread with caution though.

    Stephen Curry $9,900 plays in the 2nd highest total at 225 against OKC. I think Curry and Westbrook will go at each other in a PG dual since Westbrook in his L2 has been successful against Curry averaging 62 FD pts while Curry over the past two seasons has averaged 48.7 pts against OKC. While Curry does not have 80 pt upside he also costs $3,500 less! I could see stacking these two guys in tournaments or just using Curry, either way I don’t see myself in a GPP without one of these dudes.

    Gary Harris $6,000 if Chandler and the Rooster both sit again I like Harris against the Rockets. The last game against HOU he put up 30 FD pts in 39 minutes and for the L2 weeks with all the injuries at SF as been averaging 37 minutes, 12 FGA per game, and averaging 28.87 FD pts. Again depends if DEN SF’s sit.

    Nik Stauskas $3,600 has two straight games of 23+ FD pts. Injuries have opened up opportunity for Nik with Okafor playing limited time against DAL in a blowout and getting hurt against BOS which has led to Stauskas capture 13 reb, 6 ast, 3 stl, 2 blk over the past two games. The oddest stat has to be the multiple games of 6 rebounds or more. If Okafor sits and for some unthinkable reason Nik can give us a trio of good games, at $3,600 Stauskaus has tremendous value.

    Will Barton $5,800 when Chandler and the Rooster sit, he tends to heat up and facing Houston in the the highest projected total he might be a good play. Barton did dud against HOU last gamet without the DEN SF’s present but in the L3 (without DEN SF’s) he has averaged 32.36 FD pts. I think his dud against HOU might scare some people off but over the course of the last two seasons Barton still has averaged 29.34 FD pts against HOU. Again depends heavily on DEN injury news.

    Tim Hardaway Jr $5,600. The price just seems too high yet Timmy will start tonight due to no Bazemore. As a starter he has averaged 26.62 FD pts, 33 minutes per game, 14 FGA per game. Combine this with the fact that as a starter Timmy has put up multiple 40+ FD pt games, I really like Grover tonight.

    Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot $3,800. I think you defiantly can stack the 76ers ORL game and TLC could be one of those guys not named Covington or Saric for Philly you should look at. As a starter for the L5 games TLC has averaged 19.18 FD pts, has scored double digit pts in four out of those five games, and is averaging 28 minutes per game. I like TLC as a semi punt cash play.

    Lance Thomas $4,400 if Porzingis sits Lance is a solid SF play that will most likely go over looked. Since February when Thomas started he has averaged 22 FD pts a game and he has flashed a GPP ceiling. I don’t love the match up but against the struggling Clips I like Thomas again if Porzingis sits.

    Taurean Prince $3,700 Again Bazemore is out and while THJ is a great play I like Prince at a sweet $3,700. Prince has played well in his L4 averaging 21.92 FD pts in 25 minutes per game. He did dud once in the L4 against the Spurs so we can almost dismiss that game, but against Philly 6X-8X should be realistic.

    Otto Porter $6,200. I love Porter tonight if Morris sits and even if he doesn’t, I still like Porter as an awesome GPP play. BOS struggles to rebound at time and Porter has defiantly taken advantage of this in the past when he grabbed 14 boards and dialed in almost 69 FD pt against BOS this year. The Wizards starters are always safe with minutes in the high 30s, double digit FGA, and consistent usage ratings. Play Porter

    Bojan Bogdanovic $3,900 has not been great lately after having flashed some GPP potential as a Wizard. But his price is down $200 on FD and if Morris sits I like a bunch of Wizards again. Still Bojan would be a GPP but worth a look.

    Chandler/Gallinari I like either one of these guys if one or the other sits. If both plays I prefer Chandler since him against Ryan Anderson is just abuse 101. If both sits I like the DEN guards and Plumlee at center becomes a legit option to play alone or stack w/ the Joker.

    Robert Covington $7,200 I like in a GPP game stack only.

    Kristaps Porzingis $6,500 is more probable to play most likely. I think the Knicks can keep it close considering how bad the Clips have been. I have concerns about rust after a two game layover so I am keeping KP as a GPP play but defiantly a guy who could do 6X.

    Dario Saric $7,800 has been hot as a hibachi lately. His last game against Philly he put up 41 FD pts. The price is high but at this point who does Philly have besides him and Covington in terms of scoring? Again stack this game.

    Jason Smith $3,900 price ticked up $400 but as a starter his Smith’s last two he has 35 and 22 FD pts. I think the 35 FD pt game was a little fluky due to the 15 FGA but at $3,900 I still think Smith has 6X upside.

    Juan Hernangomez $3,700 love the price especially against Houston. Juan’s value really is tied to the DEN SF’s and if he starts he has averaged 23 FD pts per game for the season. I think everyone wanted to believe as a starter this guy could put up 30-40 fantasy pts every time, but I think DEN is so deep even with injuries that this guy might not ever see double digit FGA attempts like he did when he scored 45 FD pts mid-February but took an insane 17 FGA against the GSW.

    Nikola Jokic $10,500 last game gave us one stinky dud against HOU without Chandler and Gallo. It should be noted he did have 5 fouls (only 21 minutes played) BUT he took 14 FGA and had a massive 32% usage rating. If Gallo and Chandler sit I don’t mind gambling on the Joker for a bounce back as a GPP due to the sky high price.

    Blake Griffin $8,700 at this price seems too low. Yes the Clips have been bad lately but they get the Knicks today who usually get abused by big men. I think Blake is way too athletic and versatile for any Knick defender to lock down. This was apparent this year when Blake blasted off for 53 FD pts. As long as Blake get 15-20 FGA I think we could see a big night.

    Rudy Gobert $7,900, DeAndre Jordan $7,600, Nikola Vucevic $8,000 are all fantastic plays for me tonight. While you can debate the merits of revenge games Vucevic is one player who consistently plays well against his former team the 76ers. Whether this is due to the fact that the 76ers are terrible or that Vucevic is gunning for them doesn’t really matter. I have said this multiple times but stack this game! No one on the Knicks can out muscle DeAndre Jordan, he simply is a brick wall against skinny KP, more athletic than Willy, and just taller and more skilled than O’Qinn. This year he put out a 49 FD game against the Knicks and tonight he could do something very similar. Rudy has played well without Derrick Favors and Hood in the lineup and against IND I think he has a double double written all over him. The main thing I don’t like is the projected game total which does limit his upside.

    Clint Capela $5,300 is best used in the pick and roll and that was very apparent last game against DEN where he had 13 FGA. Really Capela is at his best when he gets double digit looks and tonight I don’t think that will be an issue since I project his usage around 22%. He only needs 32 FD pts to be GPP worthy and in the highest projected game I think he gets his.

    Ian Mahinmi $3,600 I am playing this guy until I get him write for better or worse. Simply if Morris sits again Ian will be a sneaky play and will go less than 1% in GPP. He already has been taking away minutes from Gortat and against BOS last year he averaged 23 FD per game. With height and the ability to rebound I think he will operate over any BOS big man.

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