Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/28/17
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John Wall FD - $10200 DK - $10700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 47.77 DK - 51.22
I'm not sure what you all had for dinner Saturday night, but I had a healthy helping of crow courtesy of John Wall. In this same spot, and then once again in the Saturday update, I stated my doubts against Wall as a plus 10K player, and at a sub 10k price, he paid 6.5X against the Cavaliers for 61.3 FanDuel points. Yes, this would have even paid 6X at his current price, which, as luck would have it, is back over 10K on both sites. I'm not going to argue with the algorithms anymore. It's all about the facts, and the facts are tonight the Wiz travel into L.A. to face the Lakers. The Lakers are a team, that while worlds apart from Cleveland, there are subtle similarities. They're ever so slightly worse at defense, and play at an even faster pace than the Cavs. Early returns from Vegas have this one at a 9 point spread, which gives me some pause, but for cash game purposes, I won't be questioning John Wall anymore.
Dennis Schroder FD - $7200 DK - $7800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.09 DK - 39.2
Paul Millsap remains out, which is bad news for Hawks and their fans as they're currently riding an 8 game skid in a tightly contested bottom half of the Eastern division top 8. The good news for us is that Dennis Schroder sees a 4.1% usage bump without Millsap on the court and has paid over 5X in his last two outings. In Sundays loss to the Nets, Schroder came 2 assists shy of a double double with 24 points, to go along with 3 rebounds and 2 steals. Tonight the Hawks host the Suns, who for pace of play and defensive purposes could be called the Nets "Western Edition". Schroder's downfall comes in ball protection, as he's averaging 5 turnovers in his last 4 outings. If you think he can protect the rock he's in a tremendous spot here.
Ish Smith FD - $4500 DK - $5000
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 27.18 DK - 28.65
This pick is of course conditional on Reggie Jackson sitting out another game. Smith has started three straight games, but the minutes have been somewhat erratic. With Jackson held out for last nights contest with the Knicks, Ish saw 35 minutes and was good for 15/6/5/1(steal) to the tune of 6.8X value. If Jackson is inserted back in to the rotation, then ish becomes more of a tournament play, if we know for certain he is going to see minutes in the thirites, then he is an excellent play for the price.
C.J. McCollum FD - $6900 DK - $7200
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 37.08 DK - 39.76
The question we have to ask ourselves here is which C.J. McCollum will we see tonight? Will it be the one that put up a 6X performance against the Wolves on Saturday, or the one that put up 2.5X barely showing up against the Lakers on Sunday? C.J. couldn't buy a shot on Sunday going only 5-13 from the field and no better from outside the arc. His peripherals were no better. You can pin part of the blame on the blow out and that Portland had this one in the bag early. Though, he did see 29 minutes in both of those games. Tonight he has to bring it as the Blazers host the Nuggets, and these 2 teams are currently tied for the 8th spot in the west. I'm expecting a big outing here against a Denver team allowing 5% more scoring and 10% more assists at the two. I'll have a lot of C.J. tonight, especially on FanDuel where his price is the lowest it's been since before the holidays.
Eric Gordon FD - $4900 DK - $5300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 29.06 DK - 31.71
Ryan Anderson is ruled out again tonight after missing Sunday's tilt with OKC with an ankle sprain, so look for Eric Gordon to run with the starting five once more. Sunday against the Thunder Gordon went 7 of 13 with 4 threes, 2 boards and an assist. Tonight, Houston draws another potential playoff preview with the Golden State Warriors. The Dubs are rather tough on opposing shooting guards, coming in slightly above average defensively at the position, but with starters minutes come added opportunity at bottom tiered pricing. EG is worth rolling in a couple of cash games with definite upside potential in tournaments.
Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5900 DK - $6500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.27 DK - 31.48
Tim Hardaway Jr. was riding a nice little hot streak against the tougher defenses of the Wizards and the Bucks, then cooled off against the Nets of all teams. in 39 minutes against Brooklyn he scored only 16 points to go along with 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals. He also gave it up 4 times. This was only the second time in his last 5 games he scored under 22 points, and the 4 turnovers were the most he's allowed in the same span. The Suns present another poor defensive opponent, so if THJ can find his shot, and keep the turnovers at a minimum the ceiling is 6X+. For cash games, you've got to love him at a 5X floor.
Andrew Wiggins FD - $7200 DK - $6800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 34.47 DK - 36.31
The Timberwolves certainly looked like a team that suffered a tough overtime loss to the Lakers the night before when they took on Portland Saturday. Wiggins 20 points, his lowest in 6 outings, was a team high against the Blazers in what would turn to another loss. He also failed to snag a single rebound Saturday which along with only 2 assists did nothing to help his fantasy value. The Wolves have had time to rest, and they and their young star forward should be looking to bounce back against the Pacers tonight. Indiana's coming in as a bottom ten defense at the three. The slower pace of these two teams is reflected in the 208 total coming in early from Vegas, and will have me looking elsewhere for tournament plays, but in cash games Wiggins makes for a fine play.
Taurean Prince FD - $3800 DK - $4800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 21.24 DK - 23.09
The Hawks are hurting at the wrong time. With Paul Millsap already out for several games, now they're without Thabo Sefolosha as well, missing his second straight tonight. This is good news for us as it opens value across the board. We've already touched on several benefactors to the Atlanta injury woes, and now we have Taurean Prince. Prince saw 38 minutes of action against the Nets on Sunday, and ended the night paying near 9X PPD. While small forward is a postion the Suns actually defend fairly well, they are still giving up 2% more scoring and 4% more assists than league average to the position, and then there is the pace factor, which is right on par with the Nets. I think Prince will see ridiculous high ownership tonight and I will be among those locking him everywhere, and won't let that scare me off him in tournaments either. with a potential 10X ceiling at a basement price, I'm all in.
Otto Porter FD - $5600 DK - $6200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.8 DK - 31.28
Otto Porter ran the boards against Cleveland on Saturday and filled the stat sheet nicely finishing with 10/6/1 along with 2 blocks and 3 steals. The added minutes came with Bojan Bogdanovic sitting out with back pain, and while recent reports have Bojan participating in practice Monday, and likely to go tonight, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wiz keep a watch on his minutes during this back to back set meaning Porter could be looking at more additional usage. Keep an eye on this situation, but if you think he's going to see minutes in the thirties, Porter is definitely in play.
Strongly consider: Robert Covington against the Nets.
Dario Saric FD - $7300 DK - $7700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 36.53 DK - 39.32
Richaun Holmes FD - $5700 DK - $6300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.54 DK - 32.8
Can you believe the Nets are playing tonight, and we've come this far without a detailed write up on a single opponent? Well, when that opponent is the Sixers you can understand why. The Sixers back court isn't really worth targeting even against the Brooklyn defense, their front court however, we can definitely discuss. With the loss of Joel Embiid, and Nerlens Noel traded off to Dallas, Dario Saric has emerged as a potential Rookie of the year candidate. Since the break He's shooting 46.5% from the field and 32% from beyond. He's adjusting very quickly to the NBA and seems to really hitting his stride as of late. Richaun Holmes meanwhile, has been subbing in at the 5 for Jahlil Okafor who has missed three of his last 4 with his status for tonight uncertain as I write this. In those 3 starts Holmes is averaging 14.3 points, and 9.6 rebounds and has paid as much as 9X this salary. This game is a DFS perfect storm, with two of the top 5 fastest paced teams in projected 221 total point game and a three point spread. I love Dario for cash games, and if Jah sits again, I'll have a ton of tournament exposure to Holmes.
Ersan Ilyasova FD - $4800 DK - $6000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 28.03 DK - 30.01
The other reason why we've been neglecting the Nets defense tonight, is because of the value coming out of Atlanta against an equally poor Phoenix defense. Starting at power forward for the injured Paul Millsap we have Ersan Ilyasova. Ersan hasn't been making much of an offensive impact filling in for Sapper, but did manage a season high 18 boards against the Nets on Sunday coming just one point shy of a double double. Phoenix is allowing 5%more scoring to opposing fours, and 3% more rebounds than league average. In 5 games since Millsap has been sidelined, Ilyasova has paid value 3 times, exceeding it twice. Tonight I like him for a high 5X floor with a 6x+ ceiling and is a great play in all formats.
Strongly consider: Larry Nance Jr. against the Wizards.
Brook Lopez FD - $6700 DK - $6900
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.02 DK - 37.55
While I love Richaun Holmes if Jahlil Okafor sits, I love BroLo that much more if Okafor plays. The Sixers have been the absolute worst in the league defending against opposing big men all season long, and regardless of who they run out at the five, Lopez is looking at a tremendous opporutnity to put on a great fantasy performance tonight. Over his last 5 contests Lopez has seen some subpar performances, getting his minutes clipped against Phoenix and Washington, but when he sees at least thirty minutes in the month of March he's scoring at least 30 fantasy points. This game has a mere 3 point spread, so the minutes should be there, which means the opportunity should as well. Lopez makes for a great cash game option, and if he's got Okafor defending against him there's a case for gpp exposure as well.
Dwight Howard FD - $7200 DK - $7600
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 37.65 DK - 39.73
With all of the Hawks injury woes, Dwight howard has been doing all he can to hold the team together. Over the 5 games since Paul Millsap has been on the shelf, he has double doubled consistently averaging 16 points and 12.6 rebounds in that span. Once again, Phoenix ranks among the leagues worst teams at the position, and their fast pace of play will present the Hawks with more looks on both ends of the court. Look for Howard to notch a 7th straight double double and have no trouble paying value in cash contests.
Jusuf Nurkic FD - $6700 DK - $7400
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.11 DK - 35.31
There is a lot to like about center tonight, as evidenced by the fact that Jusuf Nurkic is the third write up, when on many nights he is at the top of the list. Nurkic is coming off a poor shooting performance, going 4 of 15 from the field against the Lakers, but for fantasy purposes, he was able to at least snag 13 boards in that game to make up the difference. It was his second consecutive game coming short of a double double after making three straight. Tonight Portland hosts Denver in a showdown for the 8 seed in the west. The Nuggets while coming in right about league average at the five, are allowing 4% more scoring to the position, so look for Nurkic to move his scoring back in to the double digits and potentially start a new streak of double double performances tonight. A case can be made for any of these three in cash games tonight, and i like Nurkic as a good gpp option as well.