Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/11/17

 

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Pitcher

Carlos Carrasco FD 9900 DK 9800
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CLE
FD - 36.44 DK - 23.9

Here we have perhaps the best reason for dipping into an all-day slate, because reliable starting pitching is looking somewhat scarce on the night shift. Carrasco's got virtually everything you'd want in your starter. The only knock on him is health, and since he's a much better bet to make it through six innings as opposed to six months, the risk here is minimal. He's been at a K/inning or better each of the last three years, and 2016 was the first time in that span his FIP crept north of 3.00 (still solid at 3.32). Meanwhile, the White Sox are in the middle of a total rebuild, leaving the offense with only a few pieces that inspire anything resembling fear. The ballpark is a mild concern, as it does favor offense, but Carrasco's career numbers at Progressive Field are only marginally worse than his overall marks. All told, it might not have all the ingredients of a no-brainer on some slates, but for all-day cash games on this one, Carrasco is the clear choice.

Jameson Taillon FD 8000 DK 8400
Opponent - CIN (Davis) Park - @PIT
FD - 32.67 DK - 21.41

So, compared to what we saw a couple of days last week, the pitching on this slate isn't actually that bad. There's nobody outside of Carrasco who qualifies as an ace, but we're got a handful of usable dudes -- Jeff Samardzija at home, Cole Hamel at the Angels, etc. So it's interesting that the projection system has identified Taillon as its top play of on the night slate for overall points. He's a former elite prospect, and he turned in solid work in his first big-league action last season after missing two seasons due to injury. The K totals weren't exactly eye-popping (20.3 K%, 7.36 K/9), but he's still just 25 years old, so there's room for growth in that area, and at these prices we don't really need him mowing guys down. Early lines have the Pirates installed as a -175 favorite in this one with an 8-run total, so the expectation is that he'll be able to keep the Cincinnati bats in check. The home park will help in that regard, as will Taillon's excellent control (1.47 BB/9 in 2016).

Matt Harvey FD 8700 DK 8300
Opponent - PHI (Buchholz) Park - @PHI
FD - 31.84 DK - 20.96

If you're looking for more upside, Harvey may be your guy (emphasis on "may be"). Truthfully, we're not entirely sure what to make of him right now. As recently as two years ago, he looked like an ace on the rise, stingy with free passes and long balls, while racking up Ks. Then 2016 happened. The velocity dropped and so did the whiffs, and he got hammered for a .353 BABIP and 4.86 ERA. The walk rate and homers allowed were still decent, and the peripherals say there's some bad luck involved, but it's clear Harvey lost something. Fast forward to this spring, and the velocity is back up and optimism around the erstwhile Dark Knight is cautiously rising. He was solid in his season opener against the Braves last week, but then again, that's not setting the bar extremely high. Still, it's firmly within the realm of possibility that he'll rebound and become something similar to the guy who recorded xFIPs of 2.63 and 3.24 in 2014 and '15, respectively. But it's far from a certainty. Nonetheless, he'll be in a decent spot against a mediocre Phillies lineup, and he's worth taking a chance on in tournaments, at the very least.

Catcher

Russell Martin FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.36 DK - 6.85

Welcome to Wily Peralta Day, Part Two. Let's hope the sequel exceeds the original, because the prices on the Blue Jays hitters are just too low. Peralta single-handedly sank boatloads of DFS stacks last week, when he shut down the Rockies. But algorithms are notoriously stubborn, and our projection system couldn't care less. Wisely, what it sees instead is a guy who doesn't miss bats, and whose control and home run suppression has gotten progressively worse over the last two years -- not to mention that Peralta has never posted a sub-4.00 FIP. Add the Rogers Centre and soft pricing to the mix, and you can expect to see a whole bunch of Blue Jays in this column. We'll admit that we're a little concerned with Russell Martin's 0-for-20 start -- especially considering how awful he was last April. But he bounced back from that and played up to expectations (a sturdy power source at a position where power's not always easy to find). He'll likely do it again, and the price, pitcher and park are right tonight.

Victor Martinez FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - MIN (Santiago) Park - @DET
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.08

For just a hair more, you can get the relative safety of V-Mart, and that would be my preference for cash games on the all-day slate. Whereas Martin tends to be a boom-or-bust guy, Martinez is a lower-variance, low-K guy with similar upside. Plus, his entrenched spot in the heart of the Detroit order is hard to beat at this price tag. The matchup is a pretty good one, too. Hector Santiago had made a career of outpitching his peripherals until it came crashing down last season, resulting in a 4.70 ERA and a 5.46 xFIP -- his second straight year with an xFIP over 5.00. He's a fly-ball pitcher with poor command, and even in a neutral park like Comerica, that's a bad combo.

Consider: Yan Gomes

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.55 DK - 8.28

The deeper you get into research on Tuesday's matchups, the more appealing that all-day slate is looking. James Shields at the Indians? Yes, please. Shields found a way to fend off the Tigers last week, but this is not a renaissance. He walked five guys in 5.1 IP, and over the last two years, the correlation could not be stronger: when the walks rise, the home runs are sure to follow. Shields has posted career highs in both BB/9 and HR/9 in successive seasons, notably getting bombed seven times while issuing 13 free passes over the course of four starts in late May/early June of last year. The guy who cranked out mid-3s FIPs like an assembly line from 2011-14 is gone, and there's no sign he's ever coming back. And then there's Encarnacion, the prototypical patience-and-power guy; in other words, Shields' worst nightmare. He's posted a double-digit BB% and an ISO over .260 each of the last five seasons. He's a great play on any site, but on FanDuel, he's almost impossible to pass up at the price.

Kendrys Morales FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.49

We're going to be picking on Peralta quite a bit today, folks. Morales showed last season that he's still got plenty of punch, hammering 30 HRs for the first time since 2009. The move to Toronto should help him come close to sustaining that production, because the Rogers Centre is much more hospitable to homers than Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium, and he's found a home as the Blue Jays' cleanup hitter. With Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista in front of him, that should mean ample RBI opportunities.

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @COL
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.92

Holy cow. Jered Weaver is in Coors Field and it's taken us this long to mention it? Hang your head in shame, Tony Wolters. So about Weaver. He's not good. There are Alpine peaks with declines less treacherous than the slope of his year-over-year fastball velocity. Did it bottom out at 84 mph last year? Maybe! He was up to 84.4 last week against the Dodgers. Progress! Listen, you're gonna have to burn a lot of salary to roster most of the Rockies tonight, but do it anyway. Weaver is stretching the boundaries of what it means to be MLB caliber, and the upside for anybody in the Colorado lineup is just too high to fade.

Devon Travis FD 2400 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.02 DK - 7.72

Travis doesn't have the double-HR upside of the other Blue Jays mentioned here, but he's coming at a steep discount, and he's got enough pop to more than return value. Also weighing heavily into these projections is the fact that he's hitting leadoff, which maximizes his chances for an extra at-bat, and every opportunity at the plate is invaluable in DFS -- especially when Wily Peralta is toeing the rubber.

Consider: Ian Kinsler, if you're playing early/all-day slates.

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Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.4 DK - 8.34

Home runs hold the greatest allure when grabbing bats against James Shields, and even though power isn't a key component in Lindor's game, he's still got it. But whether he goes yard or not, there's plenty to like about the emerging star, including plus-plus contact skills that raise his floor and solid speed to boost his ceiling. Last year, he struck out in just 12 percent of PAs and posted a .351 wOBA against RHP.

Troy Tulowitzki FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.39 DK - 7.63

Ok, Tulo's star power has obviously waned. MVP candidacies and Triple Crown dreams have long since faded. But while he's not the all-around offensive showstopper he was during his Colorado prime, he's still a pretty solid power hitter, putting up a .189 ISO last season, including .196 vs. RHP. That's pretty tantalizing in this park, and really, these FanDuel prices on the Toronto hitters just seem off.

Strongly consider: Trevor Story

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.95 DK - 8.72

See what I mean about the FanDuel prices? DraftKings' look closer to what we'd expect, and there you might be better off just splurging for the Colorado guys. But as for Donaldson, he's garnered a well-earned reputation as a lefty killer, but that's selling him short. He mashes, regardless of split. Last year, his wOBA and ISO (.405/.272) were actually higher against RHP. Deploy him freely tonight.

Alex Bregman FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 9.24 DK - 7.01

Of course, Nolan Arenado is in play here, regardless of the price tag. But from a points/$ perspectively, we've actually got Bregman as the top play at the position. Just was we weren't sweating his 1-for-32 start after getting called up last season, we're not overly concerned that he's sitting on 5-for-32 in 2017. In both instances, the underlying numbers said the hits would come, and last year, they certainly did, as he hit .309 with eight homers down the stretch and flashed the all-around offensive skills that made him one of the best hitters in the minors after the Astros made him a first-round pick in 2015. Tonight he'll get Ariel Miranda, a lefty whose numbers have looked more and more pedestrian with each new level he's reached since coming over from Cuba. He finished his first stint in the bigs last season with a 5.06 xFIP and 1.86 HRs/9.

Consider: Adrian Beltre. If he's activated and in the lineup for his season debut, he'll be in a good spot against lefty Tyler Skaggs.

Outfield

Carlos Gonzalez FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @COL
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.2

This one's all but a lock, especially on FanDuel, where he's coming at a discount relative to Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. CarGo still has as much upside as either, and unlike Arenado, he gets a bump for the favorable platoon splits. His career numbers against RHP are gaudy (.389 wOBA, .252 ISO) and at home against RHP they're downright absurd (.440/.314). Whether you're stacking Coors or just looking for a one-off, we think CarGo's the guy you build around.
Jose Bautista FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.71 DK - 8.42

It's still too early to know whether last season was a blip or the beginning of the end for 36-year-old Bautista. But even if it seems probable that his best years are behind him, it would still be surprising if he completely cratered. By just about any metric, 2016 was his worst year since 2009, but even so he still showed nice power (.216 ISO) and superb mastery of the strike zone (16.8% BB). With a nice matchup and a nice park, it's a good time to bet there's still something the tank for Joey Bats.

Giancarlo Stanton FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (Colon) Park - @MIA
FD - 11.73 DK - 8.41

Bartolo Colon isn't usually the first guy we target when homer hunting, but while he does a solid job of keeping the ball in the park, the one thing he doesn't do is strike guys out. That's great news for Stanton, because the K is his kryptonite. He's consistently pushing the 30% mark in strikeout percentage, but as is well established by now, when he makes contact, violent things happen. Even last year, in a season dogged by an epic slump, his hard contact percentage was 44%, even better than his already high career rates. Meanwhile, his ISO was a still-studly .249, with a .237 mark against RHP and .234 in the spacious confines of Marlins Park. There's always the significant risk of a goose egg when you roster Stanton, but it comes with tournament-winning upside.

Michael Brantley FD 3100 DK 5200
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.22

At the other end of the spectrum we find Brantley, a skilled contact hitter with marginal pop (10.7 career K%, .129 career ISO). He's rarely a bad cash game play, and luckily his upside will be lifted by the generosity of James Shields. Sitting between Lindor and Encarnacion, he should see as many pitches to hit as Shields can muster, with no shortage of run/RBI-producing opportunities. He's (really, really) pricey on DK, but we like him for cash games and/or if you're stacking Indians on FanDuel.

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