Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/23/17

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 11500 DK 13900
Opponent - NYM (Wheeler) Park - @NYM
FD - 42.47 DK - 27.97

On a day with so much pitching, Scherzer still stands out as a cash game option. He's  the 2nd best pitcher in baseball and the only guy who contends with Kershaw in terms of consistency. He has gone 6+ innings and struck out 7+ in each of his 3 starts. Dusty Baker has already pushed him to 114 pitches so it's quite clear where his upside lies. If you know baseball, you know how good this guy is at everything. Last year, he held a .259 combined wOBA and struck out 12.35 per 9 innings. Yoenis Cespedes is expected to miss this game and that leaves the Mets lineup very weak. Jay Bruce and Neil Walker are the current 3-4 combo of this team which should also speak to the strikeout upside. There are a lot of guys like Rivera, Wheeler, D'Arnaud, Walker, etc that offer K upside without the HR downside. The one spot where Scherzer struggled in 2016 was with the occasional longball. That shouldn't be a problem tonight and if he allows one, I don't think anyone is on base. As long as Scherzer has his stuff working tonight, there is no doubt what will happen. He will dominate the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball and be a terrific late night hammer. His price is high but so is his "floor" and his upside is greater than anyone else. In baseball, anything can happen. Bartolo Colon hit a home run.  Scherzer is very expensive and there's always other options. Let's take a look at a few guys who might not be quite as obvious as Scherzer.

Yu Darvish FD 10200 DK 10800
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @TEX
FD - 34.39 DK - 22.69

In my cash games, I plan on sticking with Max Scherzer. He is extremely consistent and on a 25 game slate, not too difficult to fit in. However, he's way more expensive than anyone else and there is a guy who has a similar upside. Yu Darvish is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball when healthy and he certainly looks to be, throwing 100 pitches in just his 2nd start. Darvish has struck out over a batter per inning on this young season and has only had 1 real rough start. The Royals were previously a team who struck out little and made a ton of contact. This year, forget about that. They hold a 23% K rate against righties and it makes sense. They lost a few contact guys and added Brandon Moss (32% K) and Paulo Orlando (34% K). Darvish is one of the toughest pitchers to rack up hits against and teams become heavily reliant on power when his stuff is working. The Royals are probably the least powerful team in the league and that's evident with there 1st baseman that hits 4th, Eric Hosmer. He's a ground ball machine that should probably be hitting 7th or sitting next to James Loney. Sorry Royals fans. Darvish is cheap in tournaments and shouldn't be highly owned at all. There are a few ways to go at pitcher and is expect the crowd to be off of Darvish after last game. He will be my heaviest owned pitcher in tournaments after Scherzer. Those 2 stand way above the rest.

John Lackey FD 9200 DK 9800
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @CIN
FD - 31.95 DK - 21.13

After 2 phenomenal starts to begin the season, the fiery brewers smacked 3 homers in 6 innings. He struggled with his putout pitches and ended up being forced out of the game early. Lackey said after the game he simply didn't have his pitches working and that he needs to be a more consistent option. He is a veteran and has been good at bouncing back all career long. Even at the ripe pitching age of 37, Lackey saw his best-ever strikeout numbers last season (9.50 per 9). He's throwing his off-speed pitches more and decreasing the hard contact. The Reds are a team that has hit well to start the year. They're not a good offense and the numbers will regress. Lackey is very god against baserunners and while Hamilton can definitely run on him, don't expect some kind of breakdown because of it. Lackey will not get flustered by the base running antics and will be just fine by then team he reaches the 6 hitter, where it gets very ugly. The strikeouts are up for grabs here and I don't think Lackey is out of consideration for cash games. I do think he bounces back nicely against a Reds team that is a heavy underdog. Lock in the win if things go to plan.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.93 DK - 6.42

Shelby Miller is a guy we all know is terrible against lefties. It's already started this year. With just a .265 BABIP, lefties are sporting a .315 wOBA and high HCR. Miller has no changeup and absolutely no putout pitch against lefties. He will continue to struggle and Chase Field is a horrible environment for pitchers. Yasmani Grandal is a switch-hitter who is much much better from the left side. He hit 23 homers from the left side last year and posted a .351 wOBA in Dodgers Stadium. Chase Field is a top 3 ballpark and the entire Dodgers team is worth a mention. Grandal is a great cash game play and has plenty of tournament upside, even at high ownership. 

Victor Martinez FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 8.95 DK - 6.61

On FanDuel's backend, Victor Martinez is invisible. They can't change his price and they can't change his position. We almost have to play V-Mart in cash at his price against Kyle Gibson. Gibson is very bad against lefties (.380 wOBA in 2016) and had a hard time putting things together in 2016. He gives up a lot of flyballs and a lot of hard contact, which in result are homers. Martinez does still have the pop and this is a match-up where I could come out and see it play. He's sported a .360 wOBA against righties for 3 years now and only recently has the K rate increased. With Grandal just $100 more on FanDuel, it's an interesting call for cash games. On DraftKings, Martinez is 1B eligible and only a guy I would touch in deep tournaments. First base is stacked and there are plenty of guys I would play over Martinez at $3900. Target Field is a pretty neutral field that slightly plays into lefty power.

Yan Gomes FD 2300 DK 3000
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @CHW
FD - 7.65 DK - 5.63

If you need to punt at catcher here you go. I can't sit here and praise Yan Gomes. He's a pretty horrible hitter who has historically been a solid bat against lefties. U.S. Cellular Field is a hitter-friendly park and Gomez does have a bit of HR upside. He hit 8 last year against righties in a shortened season and 20 the season before. Derek Holland is a weak lefty who has been hit around to start the season. He sported a .346 wOBA against righties in 2016 and allowed 14 homers in less than 80 innings. The Indians offense will get to Holland and Gomes should have an RBI opportunity or two. As one of the weaker positions on every slate, it's never a horrible idea to punt catcher. With that being said, there are a few guys that stand out on top of the rest today.

First Base

Adrian Gonzalez FD 2700 DK 4200
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.34 DK - 6.82

Adrian Gonzalez isn't the sexiest name to click on. He doesn't hit that many home runs anymore and he's simply not as good as he once was. Still, he can swing the bat very nicely against right-handers and his eye hasn't missed a beat. He's still swinging at the same rate and hitting balls just as hard. With the move to Chase Field, he has a lot more upside than normal. He's also a bit too cheap, especially on FanDuel where they don't factor in Ballpark nearly as much. Gonzalez is one of the elite cash game options on the slate at such a low price against a pitcher who can get out lefties. The Dodgers have the 2nd highest team total on the board and you have to love the lefties. Gonzalez is the heart of this lineup and while Seager is definitely the best player, the offense seems to ride with Agon. Shelby Miller tends to fall behind in the count early (52%) and Avon held a .451 wOBA against righties in 2-0 counts or better. Gonzalez can be used in any format on any site. 

Freddie Freeman FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.49

Freddie Freeman is easily one of the best batters in the league against righties. He holds an elite number in every category possible and the only thing he hasn't been able to bring at an elite level was HR's. Those days are long gone. His swing angle has changed since the start of 2016 and his HR per AB nearly doubled. Freeman sported a .410 wOBA against righties in 2016 and followed with a solid 15% BB rate. Zach Eflin gave up 9 homers against leftie sin just 28 innings of work in 2016. He's not a good pitcher yet and we're not sure if he will ever be. For now, go ahead and target the Braves bats. They will make contact and they will hit the ball hard. Freeman is extremely expensive on both sites and I think he goes under-owned because of it. While Freeman is always an elite cash game play against a righty, I like him in tournaments tonight. He's going to under-owned in Citizens Bank Park against a righty who has a problem with the longball. Yes, please.

Anthony Rizzo FD 4200 DK 5500
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.74 DK - 8.61

Look, the Cubs are in a REALLY good spot here. Bronson Arroyo is simply not a good pitcher and he has relied on people not having film on him so far. His swinging strike rate has consistently gone down since game 1 and hitters will start teeing off. He's still allowing .567 wOBA and people are talking about him being decent. The Cubs are the best offense in baseball and they should be very highly owned. In cash games, you have to target them. Rizzo, in particular, is a consistent, high upside elite option in all formats. He's held a .380+ wOBA against righties in 3 straight years and also struck out only 16% of the time. He is expensive everywhere and rightfully so. If you're looking for a high-end option at first, look no further. 

Second Base

Jonathan Villar FD 3000 DK 4700
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @MIL
FD - 8.49 DK - 7.72

Jonathan Villar is really good and really consistent. He's also stupidly priced on FanDuel. He's not a $3000 player and in cash games, you lock him in. This is a guy who can score in a multitude of ways and even more so against righties. In 2016, he hit 19 home runs and stole 62 bases. He is just as good at stealing bags as Billy Hamilton and has even more baserunning freedom. We usually would never target Yadier Molina, but his putout rate has gone down over the last couple years and Mike Leaks isn't anything special at holding runners. He allowed a .324 wOBA against lefties and 13 homers in less than 90 innings. Miller Park is a very hitter-friendly park and the Brew Crew have been swinging a hot bat. Villar is an elite cash game option ith plenty of tournament upside. On FanDuel, I would recommend blocking in cash games. His floor is very high here and 2nd base is a position that doesn't offer much on the day. Let's take a look at Odor, who is a very nice tournament option.

Rougned Odor FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.3 DK - 7.17

Rougned Odor isn't nearly as safe as Jonathan Villar but he definitely has as much upside, if not more. He hit 26 homers against righties and posted a .340 wOBA. He faces off with Jason Hammel, a righty who is about as average as you can get. He sported a .344 wOBA and a 5.09 xFIP against left-handers. He also had a 1.45 HR /9 and Globe Life Park is extremely friendly for lefty power. Hammel came over from the Cubs, where he had an elevated BABIP and a lower than anticipated K rate. His BABIP has finally caught up to him and he's been taken advantage of lately. Odor struggles with K's and I  think this is a match-up where you can bet on him making contact, which is half that battle.  He's similarly priced to Villar and should be much lesser owned. If you're looking to take a risk in a tournament, this is a great one. 

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Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.5

I know Corey Seager is just 22 years old but he hits like a crafty veteran with youthful power. He posted a monstrous .400 wOBA against righties in 2016 and many claimed it to be unsustainable. While the sample size isn't big enough just yet, he currently holds a .465 wOBA comparatively in 2017. He also sees a ridiculous Ballpark jump from Dodgers Stadium to Chase Field, where the ball soars. I've touched on Shelby Miller plenty here so I'll keep it short. He gives up a ridiculous amount of hard contact against lefties and he's not hitting the good part of the bat. You can expect a Seager and these other left handed bags to to drive the ball and drive it far. Seager is as bid for the best play on this slate. On FanDuel, don't get cute. 

Addison Russell FD 2700 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.07 DK - 6.74

If Joe Maddon is going to keep putting Russell in the 4 spot, we have to keep targeting him. He has turned into a very nice hitter and almost always has someone on-base when he gets up. He die shut lefties better than righties but his numbers against righties haven't been bad. In 2016, he sported a .306 wOBA but also hit 12 homers. Bronson Arroyo is obviously just horrible and there's not too much else to say. Russell is still somewhat underpriced for the cleanup spot and should be part of your Cubs stacks. The Cubs stacks will be popular today and I don't see the Cubs going off with Russell being a part of it. 

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.9 DK - 8.85

The Cubs absolutely teed off on the Reds yesterday, putting together a 12-run performance. Bryant didn't go crazy but did have a run-scoring double and another BB. He will look to get his own part of the HR party today against Bronson Arroyo, who could be the worst pitcher in baseball against righties. While there is a chance that's and exaggeration, the numbers don't say so. He allowed an insane . 500+ wOBA against righties in 2014 (last time he pitched) and has sustained it so far this season. In Globe Life Park, there's no way I'm not targeting Kris Bryant. Bryant has some of the best power numbers in baseball and mashes in hitter-friendly parks. He posted 25 homers against righties last year and held a 46% yard contact rate. A few lines drives are evident here. Let's just hope it ends up in the seats. 

Manny Machado FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.75

Third base is a spot we're looking to pay up at today. Kris Bryant is the preferred cash game option against Bronson Arroyo. He's safe and has just as much upside as anyone on the slate. With that being said, there is a guy who's a bit cheaper that will be about 20% as owned. He has plenty of upside in Camden Yards against a lefty. His name is Manny Machado. Machado destroyed lefties in 2016  with a .388 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate. Camden Yards is a top 5 ballpark for righties and Machado sported  a .410 wOBA there in '16. Eduardo Rodriquez isn't a horrible pitcher. He throws pretty weak stuff and relies on soft contact. Machado is one who will swing and miss here. He will also hit the ball a couple times really hard. Expect a few line drives out of Machado and don't be disheartened with a few K's. With all of that being said, Bryant is the clear option in cash games where he's only a few hundred more expensive.

Outfield

Kyle Schwarber FD 3600 DK 5100
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.12 DK - 8.85

I feel like I ways write up Schwarber, but what could I do? Not write him up against Bronson Arroyo? Schwarber is an absolute monster at the plate and could end up being the best guy in the league at working counts. He has currently seen the most pitches in baseball and it feels like he's always on base or driving in runs. While the sample size is tough to gage, Schwarber has sported a .400 wOBA against righties everywhere. He drives the ball to all fields and Great American Ballpark will certainly benefit him. Oh ya, Bronson Arroyo is also pitching. Not sure if I've mentioned that. Go ahead and target these Cubs bats at will. They should have a solid day at the plate. 

Joc Pederson FD 2500 DK 4000
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.58 DK - 6.38
Andrew Toles FD 2300 DK 3300
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 7.74 DK - 6.61

We don't have the lineup as of yet, so both of these guys have the potential to be fantastic plays. Joc saw the 1 hole against Taijuan Walker 2 nights ago, which was a similar match-up. Assuming Joc gets the leadoff spot again, he makes for a great cash game option. His price is down on most sites and you can lock him in for 5 AB's. Toles is a speedy guy who aims for the gals and gets on base. He's a good cash game option if in the top 6. If lower, I don't mind him in tournaments. He will go low owned and has the potential to steal a few bags and drive in some runs. Both Toles and Pederson are strong against righties, respectively holding .340 and 3.61 wOBA over the last 2 seasons. Pederson is a bit more HR/K/BB and Toles is a safer contact option. With that being said, if Pederson is in the 1 spot, he will make hard contact against Shelby Miller. You can book that. Both of these guys are intriguing in both formats. 

Matt Joyce FD 2000 DK 2500
Opponent - SEA (Gallardo) Park - @OAK
FD - 7.34 DK - 5.33

You have to love Matt Joyce. He's always sitting around minimum price and ends up in fantastic match-ups. Today, he finds himself paired up with Yovani Gallardo. First, let's take a look at Gallardo. He posted a .349 wOBA against lefties in 2016 and an even worse 5.56 xFIP. Joyce on the other hand, has been phenomenal against righties. He sported a .381 wOBA and hit 12 homers in 2016. While the O.co is a very tough park, Joyce has been in tough parks his whole career. The price is way too low and it's a simple price play. Make sure you do check the lineup as he has seen some weird spots in the lineup recently. If he's sitting in the 2 hole, he's a great cash game saver.

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