Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/25/17

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw FD 12700 DK 14300
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @SF
FD - 42.48 DK - 28.01

Holy cow, look at those prices. Gonna be an interesting night, folks. We've got a 14-game main slate that includes Coors Field, most of the better hitting parks in baseball, and Eric Thames, probably doing Thamesian things. Meanwhile, Kershaw will be eating up a mammoth chunk of your cap space and making it virtually impossible to get the hitters you really want. So be it. In cash games, he's just too good to pass up, especially in a terrible park for hitters against an average (or maybe worse) offense. The Giants lineup might just be trash. They entered Monday night ranked 25th in wRC+, and while the sample size is obviously too small to be reliable, this is really just a continuation of last year's ineptitude when they ranked 21st in wRC+ vs. lefties. If you a San Fran fan, these facts are troubling. If you're a cash gamer, they're just confirming what you already know: Kershaw is worth paying for.

Kyle Hendricks FD 8500 DK 10200
Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @PIT
FD - 31.1 DK - 20.45

Hendicks is in a decent spot tonight -- the Pirates are scuffling and the park is great -- but to be honest, it feels a bit like a half measure. He's in play, for sure. The question is, where do you feel comfortable playing him? He doesn't have the goods to keep pace with Kershaw in cash, and he's a little too costly for his limited upside in tourneys on most slates. That said, +$4K in salary savings is pretty significant, so if you can't find the bats to allow you to fit CK in, I suppose Hendricks is a fine place to turn if you believe his true talent lies closer to what we saw the last two seasons than what we've seen so far in this one -- and we do. Look, we're not saying he's gonna crank out another season with an ERA around 2.00, but positive regression is on the way. His current HR:FB ration is about 2.5 times the league average, and he's excelled at limiting homers in the past. The spotty command is a little more troubling, because without it, Hendricks isn't the same guy. But at this point we've got a sample size of 450 IP that tells us he's an excellent control pitcher, and a sample of 16 IP that says he's not. Which one do you trust?

Wade Miley FD 8100 DK 6900
Opponent - TB (Ramirez) Park - @BAL
FD - 31.47 DK - 20.69

Or, you could just go cheap. Miley's practically free on DraftKings, and we like him more there to pair with Kershaw, but he's worth a tournament flyer on FD, too. Of course, the park is problematic, and there are guys with more upside in this price range. Maybe. Because what on earth is going on with Wade Miley right now? All sample size caveats apply, but 11.37 Ks/9? We can't imagine him keeping that up, but the Rays could help his cause. Only the Brewers are striking out more early in 2017 and Tampa Bay had the highest rate in baseball last season. Of course, Miley's getting lucky on BABIP and strand rate, and the walks are too high, so we shouldn't forget that this is the same guy who's had an xFIP on the wrong side of 4.00 each of the last two years. But still. At this DK price, we'll take the ride.

Catcher

Matt Wieters FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 8.88 DK - 6.57

As far as Coors Field price bumps go, this one isn't so bad -- at least on FanDuel. Wieters is off to a sort of modest start with his new team, but as long as he's in the lineup, we feel pretty confident about what we're getting -- and against LHP, it's pretty good (you know, for a catcher). Over his career, Wieters owns a .347 wOBA, .194 ISO and .801 OPS in the split. Chris Rusin isn't the kind of guy we like to stack against (58% ground ball rate dating back to last year), but things can get sideways quickly in Colorado, especially for a bullpen arm/swing guy getting the starting nod for the first time this season.

Jonathan Lucroy FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @TEX
FD - 8.36 DK - 6.26

For offensive production from the catcher position, it doesn't get much better than Lucroy, who's posted a wOBA over .360 in three of the last five years and has been over .340 in four of five. Put that kind of guy in Globe Life Park and give him a price like the one we're getting on FanDuel and we're usually all over him in cash games. We're not too concerned about his slow start -- he's striking out in less than 8% of PAs, and he's not making an abnormal amount of soft contact. So if he's not getting fooled, the hits will come. A bigger issue is the Rangers' reaction to the situation, because Lucroy's been sitting a bunch lately and has been sliding down the order. We hate to take a guy hitting in the bottom third of the lineup in cash, but if Lucroy creeps back up, we'll be happy to plug him in tonight.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4500 DK 5000
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.55

Ok. Probably can't do Kershaw and still find room for Goldschmidt, but if you're looking anywhere else for pitcher, Goldy's our favorite hitter going tonight. You're probably already well-acquainted with the skill set, but there's not much this guy can't do. Power+speed+contact+patience = high upside and infrequent goose eggs. He's the total offensive package, and he's murderous against LHP (career .429 wOBA, .257 ISO). Also, the park is great and Clayton Richard is not. Play him everywhere you can afford it.

Albert Pujols FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.37

This one's more of a FanDuel/Kershaw lineup special, because the Pujols who was once the greatest hitter alive is a distant memory by now. But even though the skills have faded, there's still some life left in this bat. He's remains a really tough guy to strike out, and dating back to 2015 he's still flirting with a .200 ISO vs. RHP. And while the park sucks (technical term) for offense, the projection system is really eager to pick on Jesse Hahn tonight. The 27-year-old's career numbers are only a little worse than league average, but he's the kind of low-K, high-BB guy we like taking shots at in cash games when we get the chance.

Consider: Eric Hosmer, Mike Napoli

Second Base

Brian Dozier FD 3500 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.29 DK - 7.82

Once upon a time, Andrew Cashner was the key piece in a trade for Anthony Rizzo. A few years later, and he's got  a W/L record of 11-28 over the last 2-plus seasons. He's actually probably not that bad, but he's a fine guy to take aim at in a hitter's park like Globe Life. And while his career xFIP (3.88) tells a different story than his wins and losses (31-54) he also appears to be in decline. The control/command has tailed off dramatically since 2015, and the Ks dipped a bit too last year. Meanwhile, Dozier has become the kind of hitter we're comfortable with in about 90 percent of matchups. His career splits skew pretty dramatically in favor of southpaws, but he's been trending much closer to neutral since 2014, with a .340 wOBA and .211 ISO during that time.

Rougned Odor FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.17 DK - 7.07

Odor's matchup is a little tougher, and with only the most remote possibility of drawing a walk (career 3.9% BB rate), the floor is a little lower -- but for the sake a saving a few bucks he might be worth it to you, because the upside is very similar. Like most of his teammates, Odor hasn't delivered much yet in 2017, but we'd bet that the power is coming, because he's posted a .217 ISO vs. RHP in his first 2+ seasons. Meanwhile, Ervin Santana is just a guy at this point, so don't be to afraid of that 0.64 ERA he's posted this season. He's due from some major regression, with his xFIP sitting nearly 3.5 runs higher than his ERA -- right in line with the 4.27 he's put up since 2015.

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Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 11.46 DK - 10.01

It's hard to imagine a park better suited to Trea Turner than Coors Field. Those spacious gaps are just begging for triples, and he's got enough pop to lift one out from time to time -- even if last year's power outburst (13 HRs in 73 games) was as unexpected as it is unsustainable. Throw some stolen base upside on top, and you've got a SS who's tough to top if you've got the salary to roster him.

Dansby Swanson FD 2400 DK 3100
Opponent - NYM (Gsellman) Park - @NYM
FD - 7.19 DK - 5.53

And here's your cost-saving option. And believe or not, Swanson was actually the better prospect. He's struggled so far in 2017, but he flashed what he's capable of in limited run at the end of last year (3 HRs, 3 SBs, .302 avg., 17 runs, 20 RBIs in 38 games), and while he may never produce big-time totals  in the sexy categories, there's plenty to like about the former No. 1 overall pick. The downside, however, is that he's recently been dropped from the 2-hole to 8th in the order, which puts a cap on his value.

Third Base

Anthony Rendon FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.37

Like Wieters, Rendon's price bump is far from prohibitive (at least on FD), and we've got him as the clear top play at 3B there. After an injury-shortened and disappointing 2015, he bounced back with 20 HRs and 12 steals last season, and the run/RBI potential is massive in this lineup, even away from the best hitters park in baseball. We'd like him a little more higher in the order, but with a career .806 OPS vs. LHP, we're fine with him regardless of the lineup slot (at least on FD).

Manny Machado FD 3600 DK 4800
Opponent - TB (Ramirez) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.04 DK - 7.53

Or, for virtually the same price, you can get a pure stud. Coors obviously has a lot to do with Rendon getting top billing here, but Camden Yard is a pretty great place to hit, too, ranking seventh in overall park factors and eighth for right-handed homers. Erasmo Ramirez is a decent arm -- he doesn't hand out free passes, but is more or less mediocre in most other regards, with a K rate consistently below 7 per 9 and mild home run tendencies. In other words, Machado pretty clearly has the upperhand here. And don't sweat Machado's slow start -- that .213 BABIP ain't gonna last.

Outfield

Yasmany Tomas FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.73

Anybody taken a look at Tomas' career splits page recently? .394 wOBA, .260 ISO.  Even against a groundball pitcher like Clayton Richard, a Diamondbacks stack is looking pretty intriguing right now in tournaments. Regardless of the format, it'll be tough to resist Tomas at these prices against a southpaw in yet another extreme hitters park on this slate. Tomas' big weakness is a penchant for swinging at most everything, but the risk that profile usually entails is mitigated by Richard's utter inability to make guys miss (career 5.55 K/9). And while a 4.19 career xFIP isn't all that terrible, righties hit him pretty hard, sporting a .806 OPS and .350 wOBA.

Carlos Gonzalez FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - WSH (Undecided) Park - @COL
FD - 10.6 DK - 7.88

After getting pushed back, it looks like Joe Ross will be getting the start for the Nats tonight, which is fine. He's a nice up-and-comer, but it takes a better resume than the one he's compiled to push us off of CarGo at this price point (FD, especially, again) in Coors. I mean, sure, it looks like Gonzalez may have begun to decline. He's 31 years old with a long injury history, so it's gonna happen. But we don't think it's going to happen all at once. Other than an injury-shortened 2014, he hasn't had a season with a wOBA below .360 since his rookie year in Oakland. So take the bargain that FanDuel is offering and hope nobody else notices that it's just small-sample bad BABIP driving the price down.

Kole Calhoun FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.53 DK - 7.08

As mentioned earlier, the projection system is not impressed with Jesse Hahn, and while the projections for Calhoun aren't astronomical, he's looking like a nice value play. His spot in the order -- typically batting second, ahead of Mike Trout -- is plush, and he took advantage last season with career bests in walk and K rates, as well as OBP and runs scored. So if the Angels are putting up runs, he stands a good chance to be in the middle of it, and that's a significant factor here. Perhaps equally significant: Hahn's 4.50 career FIP vs. lefties.

Consider: Jayson Werth

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