Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/30/17

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Pitcher

Dallas Keuchel FD 10500 DK 9400
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @HOU
FD - 34.86 DK - 22.88

It looks like Cy Young Dallas Keuchel is back. While he hasn't been bad over the last year, he hasn't shown the same upside or consistency we have seen at other times. So far this season, he has held a .207 combined wOBA that's  backed up by an elite 22% hard contact rate allowed. He has been around 7 strikeouts for 3 seasons now and it looks like the type of pitcher he is now. He faces off with the Oakland Athletics, who are a very inept offense. Just looking at the lineup, it's not hard to see why we like picking on them. The projected top 3 in this order is Adam Rosales - Jed Lowrie - Ryon Healy. Khris Davis is the only bat to be scared of here and I expect Keuchel to pitch around him. Lower in the lineup, Keuchel should have some easy outs with the likes of Joyce, Decker, and Pinder. He's at home, where's he has pitched much better over his career. As long as he's able to do what he's been doing and staying inside the strike zone, he'll have a great game. He can get into trouble when he starts walking batters and is forced to make uncomfortable pitches to good hitters in bad counts. Keuchel is actually more expensive on FanDuel, and by a pretty good margin. I like him a lot more on DraftKings and would say he's definitively my top cash game option. On FanDuel, there's a discussion to be had with Archer more than $1000 cheaper. Let's take a look at the spot he's in.

Chris Archer FD 9100 DK 10500
Opponent - TOR (Sanchez) Park - @TOR
FD - 34.05 DK - 22.59

We know what were going to get when we roster Archer, but not at all. He is pretty consistent and after the 1st inning, you will have a pretty good idea of how your night is going to end up. This match-up with the Blue Jays will only exaggerate that. He had his worse start of the year last time out against the Orioles, who seem to always have his number. The Blue Jays are a far worse offense and I really don't see them getting to Archer. When looking at this lineup, it's far from what we saw last year, or even the team we saw on opening day. Outside of the somewhat dangerous duo of Bautista and Morales at 3-4, it gets ugly. The entire bottom half of the order lacks any type of power and strikes out a ton. Archer has sported a strikeout rate above 10 for 3 straight seasons and you can expect it to get there this season. Archer is still a better tournament option here, as he is on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. On FanDuel however, I don't mind him in cash games. He's  $1400 cheaper than Keuchel and has a much higher upside, as well as decent K floor against this putrid lineup. All things considered, Archer will end up being in a lot of my lineups.

Catcher

Jonathan Lucroy FD 2700 DK 4600
Opponent - LAA (Ramirez) Park - @TEX
FD - 8.62 DK - 6.46

On DraftKings, Lucroy is simply just too expensive. While our favorite catcher on the day, it's tough to justify the $4600 price tag. At a much cheaper $2.7K on FanDuel, he's in play everywhere. He has hit righties better for the better part of 3 seasons now and it looks to be the real deal. J.C. Ramirez on the other hand, is likely not the real deal. He has had 2 decent outings over the last month and I expect some people to buy in. He's a bullpen arm that had no reservations in this rotation. He has been giving up hard contact( (40% to righties) and the runs will surely follow. Globe Life Park is the toughest environment he's pitched in yet and the Rangers should get to him early. We will touch on him later as he does offer up some HR upside in Texas. Lucroy has been hitting the ball well and has been getting involved on offense over the last week. Either way, he's way too cheap on FanDuel and makes for an elite play in all formats.

Yasmani Grandal FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @LAD
FD - 8.64 DK - 6.21

Nick Pivetta will be making his major league debut here against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Dodgers Stadium. We obviously don't know much about the guy. He's struck out around 8 batters per 9 in the minors and seems to have pretty quality control. He has still held a 4.13 xFIP over the last 2 seasons, which definitely raises a red flag. As a guy without much hype, I don't see him coming out here and dominating the Dodgers in LA. Grandal has been seeing the ball well recently and has always hit righties better than lefties. He held a .351 wOBA against righties in 2016 and hit 23 of his 27 homers against them. Grandal comes in very fairly priced on both sites and is a guy would target over Lucroy on DraftKings. Make sure you keep an eye out on lineups as catchers are known to rest on Sunday.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3800 DK 5000
Opponent - SEA (Jong) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.17

Chase De Jong is a guy the Indians picked up from the Dodgers in the offseason. He's a strike-thrower with a good fastball and not much else. He's had trouble going around the order twice and even more so the third time in the minors. At the major league level, you can expect it to be a much bigger problem. This Indians team is extremely solid and one of the tougher offenses to attack in baseball. Against righties in 2016, Encarnacion sported a .370 wOBA and hit 33 of his 42 homers against them. Progressive Field is a slightly positive park for right-handed power and the Indians hit much better there. Encarnacion, like most players in good spots, is really expensive on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he's priced way down and makes for an elite option in all formats. Chase DeJong is not even a top 20 prospect for these Mariners and should struggle in his first start. Encarnacion is the beating heart of this order and has the most upside of anyone.

Freddie Freeman FD 4400 DK 5300
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.92 DK - 7.97

Freddie Freeman is a guy who is almost always in play to a degree. He is just simply one of the best hitters in baseball and is must-see TV at the plate. Freeman and the Braves will be away at Miller Park, facing off with Matt Garza. Garza gave up a .354 wOBA to lefties in 2016 and followed that up with a 37% hard contact rate and a 1.31 HR/9. Freeman, on the other hand, held a miraculous .410 wOBA against righties. He added 27 homers and 59 total XBH against them. There really isn;t too much else to say. He;s surrounded by a bunhc of scrubs, which is the only real reason to not like him. Other than that, he's facong off with one of the worst pitchers on the slate and has some of the best numbers around. If you have the salary and don't love anyone else, Freeman is a terrific way to go. Miller Park is a hitter-friendly park and the Braves have certainly followed so far.

Albert Pujols FD 2900 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.36 DK - 7.59

This game in Texas has two of the more intriguing offenses on this slate. We've touched on the Rangers and we'll get to them again. As for the Angels, they face off against a lefty in Martin Perez. Perez has been atrocious so far this season, allowing a .400 wOBA and a 44% hard contact rate against righties. Pujols, while nowhere near as good of a hitter as he once was, can still get it done at the plate. Last season, he posted a .350 wOBA and hit 10 homers off of lefties in just 142 at-bats. With most of those games coming in Angels Stadium, this guy has power. Globe Lie Park is one of the best parks in the league for right-handed power and Pujols has already taken advantage this series. While not as good of a play as Encarnacion and Freeman, Pujols is a cheaper GPP option with a ton of upside. you can fire him away on FanDuel at just $2900.

Second Base

Ben Zobrist FD 2900 DK 4800
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BOS
FD - 9.3 DK - 6.96

While Eduardo Rodriguez did improve against righties in 2016, he also allowed 15 homers to them in just 80 innings. The HR issue is real for Rodriguez and I don't see it disappearing against the Cubbies. Zobrist hit a homer just yesterday against a lefty and will look to make it 2 days in a row here. As a switch-hitter, Zobrist has hit lefties (.367 wOBA) better than righties (.357). Fenway Park is obviously one of the best parks in baseball for righties and you have to love this Cubs lineup. This interleague match-up has been full of runs so far and I don't think this game is any different. Zobrist will likely be hitting 4th in a brutal lineup against an average southpaw. Zobrist in particular, like a lot of the Cubs, is way too expensive on DK. However, it seems like everyone in a good spot is really expensive. His ownership could fall and this spot is a tremendous one. On FanDuel, Zobrist will be a mainstay in my cash games.

Rougned Odor FD 3200 DK 4900
Opponent - LAA (Ramirez) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.46 DK - 7.3

Rougned Odor smacked one off of the right-field foul pole against a righty very similar to J.C.Ramirez last night. Odor, who probably outplayed himself in his first season, is still a very good hitter against righties and a guy who has a lot more power than most 2nd baseman. In 2016, he sported a .348 wOBA and hit 27 homers against right-handed pitching. He does hold a high strikeout rate and his OBP isn't much higher than his AVG, so the risk is definitely there. Ben Zobrist is definitely a bit safer and comes in cheaper on both sites. On the same page, that will make Odor a lot lesser owned. He is a fantastic tournament option and has 2-HR upside at a position that lacks both safety and upside. If you're comfortable fading Zobrist, Odor is a phenomenal pivot.

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Shortstop

Trevor Story FD 3300 DK 5100
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.17 DK - 7.08

Ah, Trevor Story against a lefty is always fun. His at-bats are always a big rollercoaster with his swing-for-the-fences mentality on every single swing. While Chase Field isn't Coors Field, it is the 2nd best ballpark for righties in baseball. In 2016, Story sported a .409 wOBA backed up by a stupid 60% hard contact rate against lefties. He faces off with Patrick Corbin, who has always struggled against righties. In 2016, Corbin allowed a .363 wOBA and a 38.2% hard contact rate to righties. Story has one of the widest price gaps in the industry, priced $1800 cheaper on FanDuel. Even though he is a high-risk, high-reward hitter, the price is low enough on FanDuel where I'll take the upside in cash games. On DraftKings, I will reserve my ownership for Rockies stacks and tournaments. Looking elsewhere, we do have a few other options at shortstop.

Addison Russell FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BOS
FD - 8.36 DK - 6.22

Addison Russell is a guy we've been targeting a lot lately and it's been working out. He's been ripping the ball around the field and will remain in a fantastic spot in the order. He's a much better hitter against lefties and has an insane amount of upside in Fenway against a lefty. The opposing pitcher, Eduardo Rodriguez, is a very polarizing pitcher, albeit average at the same time. There have been rumors of him tipping pitches and he has supposedly fixed that. We haven't been able to tell. He's still allowing the alarmingly high hard contact rate and not striking out many batters. Addison Russell, in 2016, sported a .343 wOBA and also hit 9 homers in just 130 at-bats. Russell is cheap enough on both FanDuel and DraftKings and I like him in all formats. This Cubs offense is an interesting one and I'll be looking to target them a lot in Fenway.

Aledmys Diaz FD 2900 DK 4400
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @STL
FD - 9.73 DK - 7.41

Bronson Arroyo is still an arm we want to target. He may not be the extreme gas can we thought at the beginning of the season, but he is still not a good pitcher. He struggles against righty bats and will start struggling now that hitters have more tape on his new pitches. Aledymys Diaz, while a righty, has mashed righties dating back to his debut. In 2016, he sported a .393 wOBA that was backed up by a .941 OPS and .328 BABIP. He's cheap enough for cash games on FanDuel and a guy I would keep for tourneys on DraftKings. This entire Cardinals offense does have upside and I don't mind targeting them if you want to look outside of the box. We have a tendency to look away from things when they go bad and Arroyo could easily fall apart here. The Cardinals are a patient team and do a good job of letting a pitcher fall apart by themselves. Diaz will be hitting in the 2 hole here and is a guy I will have exposure to in a few different spots.

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4200 DK 5700
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.63 DK - 8.65

On DraftKings, this is a tough one. DraftKigs has done a really good job and priced up KB all the way to $5700. It makes sense. He's facing a lefty in Fenway Park. Bryant is undoubtedly one of the best hitters in the league against lefties and there is no doubt in my mind what will happen if Rodriguez is forced to throw good pitches to Bryant. Bryant, who is still just 25 years old, sported an insane .438 wOBA against lefties along with a 40% hard contact rate. With the green monster in left, Bryant can hit 3 HR's and nobody would flinch. The Cubs are guaranteed to see 9 innings of at-bats and you can look for at least 5 AB's out of Bryant. While I don't necessarily Love the Cubs as a whole, they have a few very strong pieces. If Rodriguez does fall apart, it will be interesting to see the stack that takes it down, as this offense has a lot of different producers. If you can afford Bryant without sacrificing at pitcher, go ahead and do it. This is one of the best spots he will be in all year-long and shouldn't be too highly owned because of the price.

Manny Machado FD 3300 DK 5000
Opponent - NYY (Montgomery) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.6

There were some talks in the comment section about this guy not being a good hitter. While a lot came to Manny's defense, let's just make this clear. Manny Machado is an elite hitter. He makes consistent, hard contact and pulls the ball at a great rate. In 2016, Machado held a .388 wOBA and backed it up with a 37% hard contact rate. While Yankees Stadium is better for lefties, it's still a plus park for righties. Montgomery, through just 15 innings, has given up 2 homers and a .479 wOBA to righties. While we don't have nearly enough of a sample size to judge, Montgomery was middling in the minors as well. He doesn't profile as a shutdown starter in the future and I don't see any reason to think the Orioles don't get to him. Machado is a great play in all formats at a solid 3B position.

Outfield

David Peralta FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - COL (Marquez) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.47 DK - 7.25

German Marquez has been very bad. While he is a guy who doe shave some potential, he hasn't clicked at all so far. Dating back to his debut (only 12 innings), he's sported a .436 wOBA and allowed 12 ER in 12 innings. With a .419 BABIP, his true wOBA is probably somewhere around .370. We haven't touched on the Diamondbacks at all yet, but they're definitely a stack that can be deployed on both sites. Chase Field is the top ballpark on the slate and the D-Backs have the 2nd highest implied team total on the day. Peralta has posted a .381 wOBA at home against righties since 2015, his last full season. Peralta is fairly priced on both sites and makes for a great option in all formats. Jake Lamb is my 2nd favorite option on the D-Backs and a combo of them is a great move in tourneys.

Carlos Beltran FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.77 DK - 6.44
Josh Reddick FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.55 DK - 7.3

We haven't touched on the Astros yet, but they find themselves in a great match-up at home against Jesse Hahn. Hahn, who has relied on a .183 BABIP so far this season, is not a good pitcher. While he might not bee too bad against righties, his numbers are well proven against left-handers. Dating back to 2014, Hahn has posted a .363 wOBA backed up with below average peripherals. He's also played half of his games in the O.Co, which is one of the friendlier parks in the league for pitching. Luckily, he'll be on the road today in the neutral Minute Maid Park. Both Beltran and Reddick hit from the left side and have the positive split advantage over Hahn. Redick has been better recently against righties, posting a .386 over the last 2 years. Beltran has always hit righties better than lefties and has shown some power already this season. Redick is a bit safer but will be highly owned. Beltran is cheaper across the industry and may fly under the radar a little bit.

Mike Trout FD 5000 DK 5800
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.8 DK - 9.78

Mike Trout against a bad lefty in a good ballpark? Yes, please. If price isn't a factor, he's the top bat on this slate. Unfortunately, price is a big deal. He's ver expensive and may be difficult to fit if paying up for pitching. Either way, he's firmly in play in the outfield. In 2016, Trout held a .416 wOBA and hit the ball hard 46.2% (lol) of the time against lefties. Globe Life Park is a huge upgrade for Trout and the Angels, who play their home games in the spacious Angels Stadium. Perez, who many think is a decent pitcher, is just that. He's good against lefties and really bad against righties. he struggles with the long ball in Glob Life and this Angels offense is a very concentrated one. Trout is a phenomenal play in any format and I'll likely end up with my exposure in tournaments, solely due to to the inflated price tag. If you like a cheaper pitcher, Trout is an elite cash play.

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