Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/3/17

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Pitcher

Jacob deGrom FD 10600 DK 10400
Opponent - ATL (Colon) Park - @ATL
FD - 35.89 DK - 23.6

Although we have a 15-game full slate on our hands, the pitching is not great. Looking towards the bottom of the pricing, we don't have much. Antonio Senzatela does have some upside but is a young guy that can be wild at times. Luckily, we have a few solid options towards the top. Jacob DeGrom and the Mets will face-off with the Braves in an attempt to take the series. While the Braves have been hitting somewhat well to start the season, they are obviously one of the bottom offenses in the league. They sported a league 5th-worst .308 wOBA that was backed up by a 20% K rate and .137 ISO in 2016. Freddie Freeman and Matt Kemp are both dangerous but also strikeout a lot. Outside of those guys, there isn't much power and surely is a lot of strikeouts. Adonis Garcia, Tyler Flowers, and Brandon Phillips all hold 23%+ K rates and have wOBA's under .310 against righties. DeGrom, while usually not, has been one of the best arms in baseball when healthy. In his short 2016 stint, he sported a .248 wOBA and a 12 K/9. Without much pitching on this slate, you can go ahead and pay up for DeGrom in all formats. He's affordable on both sites and will be the highest owned pitcher on the slate. The match-up is safe and DeGrom has a built-in strikeout floor.

Jake Arrieta FD 10100 DK 10900
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @CHC
FD - 36.87 DK - 24.1

If you want to look at Arrieta through 19 innings and conclude that he's now a bad pitcher, by all means, go pick up my cash games. His peripherals are the exact same as last year and the only difference is the .380 BABIP, which has inflated his wOBA. He has held his high K rate and has simply run into bad luck to begin the year. The numbers will start to even out as the season progresses and fortunately, he matches up at home with a bottom-tier offense tonight. While the Phillies, like the Braves, often find a way to get it done, they still strike out a lot and get shut down on frequent occasion. Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco are there best 2 hitters against righties they have to offer and are still somewhat underwhelming, holding a high K rate in Franco's case and a low ISO in Herrera's. If Arrieta is able to work around those 2, he will be left with a cluster of guys with high K rates and low wOBA's against righties. Joseph, Altherr, and Rupp are all much better against lefties but are forced into the lineup due to the Phillies lack of depth. Arrieta may not be as safe as DeGrom, though the upside is right there. The match-up may go overlooked and I could see Arrieta coming in under-owned in tournaments. Make sure you get exposure to one of the livest arms in baseball against a team that is due for regression.

Catcher

Yan Gomes FD 2400 DK 2600
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @DET
FD - 7.3 DK - 5.37

Like most nights, catcher isn't very great. No matter the match-up, Yan Gomes really shouldn't be the top option of anything. However, take a look at our options and let me know who you would rather have. While Gomes is clearly no run-away option, he's in a solid match-up and has a great price on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Indians will face off with the Tigers and Matt Boyd, who is a lefty that struggles against righties. We'll touch on him later, but just know that the Indians righties are all in play. As for Gomes, his numbers are a bit difficult to decipher. He was great against lefties in 2014 but then came back and has been better against righties for the 2 years since. He does have some power and even though he hits low in the order, there are often a lot of runners on-base. Gomes is perfectly fine in cash and won't hurt your efforts in paying up at pitcher.

Derek Norris FD 2300 DK 2700
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @TB
FD - 8.32 DK - 6.54

At a position that lacks appeal, I'll always take Derek Norris against a lefty. his swing looks a bit revived this season and he has always been a hitter that drives lefties nuts. Dating back to 2015, Norris has held a .349 combined wOBA and even in his off-year (2016), hee still hit the ball hard 32% of the time. The Marlins come to town and bring Adam Conley with them. Conley is a youngster with a lot of potential and a lot of holes. He allowed a 34% hard contact rate and 13 homers to righties in 2016, backed up by very average peripherals. While Norris could easily have a horrible night, there is no sure-thing catcher on this slate. Norris is very cheap and has the upside to drive you home in tournaments. If you want to take a shot that's not too crazy, look at Derek Norris.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3700 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @DET
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.28

Edwin Encarnacion is obviously one of the elite hitters at 1B. He has an absolute ton of power and is one of the leading candidates to hit 2 HR every time he takes the field. DraftKings is usually great with pricing, but it looks like they slipped up here. For a guy that's typically priced in the high $4k's, I see no reason why Encarnacion is at $3.9K. He had a fantastic season in 2016 against lefties, posting a .385 wOBA backed up by elite peripherals (42% hard contact rate).The Indians opposing pitcher, Matt Boyd, is one I don't mind picking on with righties. Last season, he pitched 76 innings against them. In those innings, he allowed 15 home runs and a 341 wOBA. He doesn't have a strong putout pitch and struggles to put away right-handed bats (5.50 K/9). Encarnacion has a ton of upside in this match-up and the "floor" is there as well, in an offense that projects to be one of the highest scoring. At a very fair price around the industry, you can lock him into your lineup(s).

Eric Hosmer FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @KC
FD - 9.63 DK - 7.21
Brandon Moss FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @KC
FD - 8.85 DK - 6.36

Finally, both of these guys are getting it together. They are both solid hitters in a different way and the numbers will eventually come. Hosmer has a hit in 6 straight and Moss hit a homer 2 nights ago. The Royals are a team that has struggled as a whole to start the season and while I don't entirely think it's fake, they are a good team. They have good hitting and will nickel and dime pitchers to death like they always do. They take on a guy who seems to stick around forever for no reason, Mike Pelfrey. He is absolutely horrible and a guy you want to pick on every single time he starts. In 2016, Pelfrey allowed a .394 wOBA to lefties and backed it up with a putrid 36% hard contact rate. Everyone in this Royals offense is in play and you never know who Pelfrey will leave one over the plate for. Hosmer is a bit better in cash games and Moss is a guy I would restrict to tournaments. He a strict boom-or-bust style hitter with a lot of upside for cheap. Don't shy away from these guys because of the Royals reputation.

Anthony Rizzo FD 4300 DK 4800
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.37

If you want to get away from Encarnacion or the Royals 1B's, you can definitely look towards Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo is very expensive and should be rather low-owned because of it. He has a great match-up against Jerad Eickhoff, who is much worse against lefties. Since 2015, he's given up a .345 wOBA and allowed 25 homers in just 140 innings vs left-handed bats. He has trouble keeping the ball in the park and the Cubs are arguably the most lethal offense in baseball, especially at home in Wrigley Field. Rizzo is the bat that makes the order beat and he is a great way to look as a 1-off in a GPP, as well as a key piece to a Cubs stack. He's posted a .380+ wOBA against righties for his entire career and holds one of the lowest K rates at the first base position. There aren't many hitters batter than Rizzo on the slate and you really can;t go wrong against a righty.

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BOS
FD - 9.18 DK - 7.06

When looking at this slate, the Red Sox aren't a team that stands out. Kevin Gausman isn't known as a horrible pitcher and usually isn't a guy you want to pick on. However, digging a little deeper, the Sox have a lot of upside. Gausman, a righty, is much worse against righties. He allowed a .354 to right-handers since 2014 and can't keep the ball in the park. He's been atrocious to start the year and while we haven't seen enough to conclude anything yet, it hasn't been fun to watch. At Fenway park, I don't see Gausman having much luck. While Pedroia does hit lefties better, his .341 wOBA against righties is very solid. He hits the ball hard and has a lot more HR upside at home with the monster in left field. He's far too cheap on FanDuel and a lock and load in cash games. On DraftKings, there are some other ways to go and we will touch on one of them next. All in all, Pedroia is a solid option in all formats and nobody will fault you for paying up on DK if you like the spot.

Ben Zobrist FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.34 DK - 6.99

This Cubs offense is one of my favorite under-owned tournament stacks of the night. While Jerad Eickhoff is not a horrible youngster, he does struggle against lefties and hasn't been able to keep the ball in the park. Zobrist, a switch-hitter, hits righties very well. In 2016, he hit righties for .353 wOBA and hit 14 of his 17 homers against them. He also sports some of the better batted-ball rates in baseball, spreading the ball to all fields and striking out at a very low rate, whilst also hitting the ball hard nearly 35% of the time. If you like Kevin Gausman and don't want to target Pedroia, Zobrist is a great way to go in all formats. He has more than enough upside in Wrigley and should come up to the plate for more than a time or two with guys in scoring position. Zobrist is cheaper on DK and I do prefer him in cash games there.

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Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.2

 

Carlos Correa is finally back and swinging the bat well. While it doesn't really help us tonight, he has a double in 7 of his last 9 games. He's hitting the gaps and it's quite obvious that his injury is out of the picture. This Astros team is coming around a bit and face off with a bad righty at home. They have a ton of potential in this spot and I could see a breakout game. Correa hit righties well in 2016, sporting a .360 wOBA and notching 17 of his 28 homers against them. He drives the ball to all parts of the field and does a good job of hitting the low pitch for power. Nick Martinez, the opposing pitcher, is a guy who relies on the low fastball. He throws it nearly 62% of the time and struggles when it's getting tagged. Martinez, in general, is not very good. He allowed a .388 wOBA to righties in the only season (2015) in which he saw over 80 innings against them. The Astros are in a great spot as a team and Carlos Correa finds himself at the head of the monster. He's a solid option in both cash games and tournaments.

Aledmys Diaz FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @STL
FD - 9.23 DK - 7.03

While Correa is a very solid play on the high-end, there is a great case to be made for Aledmys Diaz. Diaz is a guy who has always beat up righties since entering the league (.391 wOBA in 2016) and has shown no signs of slowing. He will be facing off with Chase Anderson, who like Diaz, has extreme reverse splits. In 2016, he allowed a .394 wOBA to righties and allowed 17 homers in just 80 innings. This seems to be a perfect match-up for Diaz and I see him as a very safe option for his price. He should be hitting 2nd between Fowler and Carpenter, so expect the RBI opportunities to be there. If you are paying up at pitcher, shortstop is one of the first places I'm willing to pay down. Diaz would be in play for me if he was the same price as Correa, so at almost $1k cheaper, I love him. With that being said, Correa is still an elite option and I may end up having 50/50 exposure.

Third Base

Mike Moustakas FD 3300 DK 3700
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @KC
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.23

Mike Pelfrey is one of those pitchers you want to pick on at every point you can. Presumably hitting lead-off, Mike Moustakas is in a very good spot. As mentioned, Pelfrey allowed a .394 wOBA in 2016 against lefties and had no numbers to suggest that was a fluke. Mike Moustakas on the other hand, is a bit tougher to decipher. He had a breakout season in 2015 and showed signs of being a top 3rd baseman in the AL. Since, he's been injury-riddled and inconsistent. The swing is obviously back this year, already hitting 6 homers against righties in just a month. He's still very fairly priced on both FD and DK and in this match-up, is an incredible cash game option. If you are looking for a reason to fade, there are some other good options at third. Personally, I will have a lot of Moustakas in both cash and tournaments. Let's take a look at a couple other options.

Trevor Plouffe FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - MIN (Santiago) Park - @MIN
FD - 7.76 DK - 5.71

After Moustakas, we're looking for tournament options. Trevor Plouffe has always been a menace against lefties and there is nobody I like to target more than Hector Santiago. While I never fully stack against him, I will always have 1 or 2 righties who have power. Since 2015, he's given up an astronomical 52 homers against righties, which unsurprisingly leads the league. Target Field has been a plus field for righties over the last couple years and Plouffe doesn't need the help. He's sported a .364 wOBA over the last 5 seasons and while he has slowed down lately, the power is still there. He hits the ball hard on a consistent basis and should find himself in a solid lineup spot. People will be very hesitant to ignore Moustakas for Plouffe, which should keep his ownership way down. This is baseball and Plouffe could easily hit 2 homers. Third base is always a spot with a lot of options and tonight is no different. If you don't like Moustakas or Plouffe for whatever reason, let's take a look at someone you can pay up for.

Manny Machado FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - BOS (Pomeranz) Park - @BOS
FD - 9.25 DK - 6.94

Machado is expensive. At a position that has plenty to offer down low, I don't think this is necessary. However, Manny Machado is facing off with a left-hander in Fenway Park. It has to be touched on. He's a very big pull-hitter and has huge splits against left-handed pitching. In 2016, Machado held a .388 wOBA against lefties and a 39% hard contact rate. He is still not yet in his prime and will only be better this season. He faces off with another youngster in Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz, while a solid pitcher, relies on a curveball against righties. Machado held a .491 wOBA against the curve since 2015 and I don't think he will miss too often here. While he might strike out a time or three, let's hope he makes contact a time or two. Pomeranz is a good pitcher overall but gives up a lot of homers and the Orioles are a team that can certainly take advantage. In tournaments, I think most people pay up and leave Machado around 10% owned. While I may not have too much exposure personally, I see the merit.

Outfield

George Springer FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.22 DK - 8.53
Josh Reddick FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.17 DK - 7.78

In the outfield, we are going to take a look at 3 duos. They all have cash game appeal and make plenty of sense for tournaments. Starting us off, we have the Astros with Springer and Reddick. Both Springer and Redick are great hitters against righties, springing .380+ wOBA's since 2015. They face off with one of the worst pitchers on this slate, Nick Martinez. He hasn't pitched more than 50 innings in 2 years and when he did pitch, he was awful. he allowed a .366 combined wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate, backed up by more bad peripherals. Springer is priced up a bit and I could see the merit in sticking with Redick. He is just as safe as Springer and has the HR upside against the right-hander. On the contrary, the increased tag could draw lower ownership for Springer, who has a huge ceiling. All in all, both of these guys make a ton of sense in all formats. Feel free to fire away.

 

Michael Conforto FD 3700 DK 3500
Opponent - ATL (Colon) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.2
Curtis Granderson FD 2300 DK 3200
Opponent - ATL (Colon) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.08 DK - 6.76

Our second outfield duo comes from the New York Mets, who are facing off with Bartolo Colon. Colon is known as a guy who is pretty good, but it's not really true against lefties. He sported a .335 wOBA and allowed 18 homers against them in just 90 innings last season. He allowed a 34% hard contact rate and his 5.98 K/9 was extremely underwhelming. Both Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto are lefties who notoriously hit righties much better. In 2016, they both posted .348+ wOBA's and hit the ball hard 36% and 42%, respectively. SunTrust Park has played well for lefties and while the sample size hasn't been large enough to conclude anything, this park was made for Freddie Freeman, who is a lefty. Conforto has been hitting leadoff and is a safer play than Grandy. However, they both have a lot of power and the upside is limitless. On FanDuel, you almost have to play Granderson on FanDuel at just $2.3k. While the Mets aren't a team I'll look to stack tonight, I don't mind a 1-off lefty or two to round out your lineup.

Giancarlo Stanton FD 3800 DK 4300
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 11.49 DK - 8.25
Marcell Ozuna FD 3500 DK 3400
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 8.73 DK - 6.47

When people see a lefty against the Marlins, they immediately think Giancarlo Stanton. Rightfully so. He's arguably the best power hitter in the game against lefties and certainly hits the ball a lot harder than the rest of them. He has held a .400+ wOBA against left-handers when healthy and is a guy that should be pitched around. However, Marcell Ozuna isn't too far off. While he doesn't bring the same presence to the plate, Ozuna still holds a .389 wOBA and an insane 49% hard contact rate against lefties. Both of these guys are used to hitting in a big ballpark and Tropicana Field is actually an upgrade from Marlins Park. They face off with Blake Snell, who is a left-handed youngster that struggles against righties, per the usual. He's definitely not atrocious and he's not a guy you look to pick on. However, these are 2 elite hitters that could very easily end up under 20% owned in a very positive split. Nobody blinks an eye if either of these guys hit 2 HRs. Fire away.

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