Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - AT&T Byron Nelson
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
AT&T Byron Nelson
TPC Four Seasons Resort - Los Colinas, TX
Par 70 - 7,166
Greens - Bentgrass
It was another wildly unpredictable PLAYERS Championship last week that ended with Si Woo Kim picking up his second career victory. He did so by shooting three of four rounds under 70 and was only one of two players inside the Top 10 on Sunday to shoot a sub 70 round. Looking at the players that entered the tournament in the elite tier of pricing($9K+), Masters Champion Sergio Garcia was the only player to finish inside the Top 10 in DraftKings points thanks to his hole in one.
The PGA Tour now travels back to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson from TPC Four Seasons Resort. The course is a Par 70 that stretches 7,166 yards through tree lined fairways and firm conditions that should produce sub a 60% Driving Accuracy average. The course can be a bit of a beast with six of the 12 Par 4's over 450 yards and two of them over 500! Both Par 5's are reachable by almost all of the field as they sit in the 540-yard range and the Par 3's range from 174 yards to 221 yards. While it can be a beast don't just fixate yourself on driving distance as there has been shorter, more accuracy profiled players who have had success here. Last year was a perfect example of this. Looking at the 11 players who finished inside the Top 10, only four finished the season inside the Top 50 in driving distance and five actually finished outside the Top 100 in the stat.
Past Five Winners
- 2016 - Sergio Garcia(-15)
- 2015 - Steven Bowditch(-18)
- 2014 - Brendon Todd(-14)
- 2013 - Sangmoon Bae(-13)
- 2012 - Jason Dufner(-11)
Even with Texas winds and rain mixed in over the years, there has still been a winning score of -11 or better. This leads me into my favorite stats for the week.
The Stats & Fantasy Approach
My Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 4 Scoring
- Birdie or Better %
- Driving Distance/Good Drive %
With this being a course where players of different skill sets can win, it is no surprise that Strokes Gained: Tee to Green showed up right near the top in correlated stats in my research. Of the Strokes Gained metrics inside the scope of SG: T2G, my favorite is going to be Approach shots as birdies or better are hard to come by if you are not getting to the right spots on the green. The next highest correlated stat is Par 4 scoring which is also no surprise as the Par 70 has 12 of them. Birdie or Better % is a staple in my model each week as it directly correlates with fantasy scoring. While driving distance isn't a highly correlated stat, I will lean on it this week with some of the monster holes. With hitting fairways being very difficult plus the chance of wet conditions, distance can be an advantage with some forgivable rough. This is where Good Drive % comes in as we will want players who can still hit the green in regulation after missing the fairways.
For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanShareSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". They have also added Salary Differential, Subject Tags and Projections. All the tools you need to help you become a better daily fantasy golf player.
Top Course History Targets
Let's kick off this show with the World's #1 golfer. He has played here seven times in his career, making the cut each time. Looking at the cheatsheet he trails only Sergio Garcia in average course history over the past five years. DJ has finished T7, T8 and T12 while playing here in each of the last three years. Speaking of three, this is DJ's third straight week teeing it up after finishing T12 at the PLAYERS and runner-up at the Wells Fargo. On the sheet, he ranks 1st in Stats, 2nd in Course History and 1st in Form. Lock DJ into your GPP lineups.
Up next is the defending Champion of this event and your 2017 Masters Champion. He ranks #1 in Course History on the sheet as I only look at the lat five years in my model but overall he has played here 12 times, making the cut in nine of them with four Top 10 finishes including the win last year. He ranks #2 overall in my model behind DJ as he not only ranks 1st in CH but also ranks 3rd in form and in stats. I don't think you can go wrong building your lineups around either of these guys.
Top Current Form Targets
Kicking off the current form targets is a nice value play this week in Sung Kang. He is coming off a T30 at the PLAYERS and before that(not counting Zurich team event) he has finishes of T6, T11, 2nd and T49 the four tourneys prior. He ranks #2 in current form behind DJ but I decided not to list DJ in every section(lol). Kang also fits the stats model as he ranks 20th in SG: T2G, 20th in SG: APP, and 9th in Par 4 Scoring. He sits a bit lower in the Course History ranks as he missed his first two cuts here in 2011 and 2012 but came back last year and finished T34. I see him besting that this week and even though he will be popular(2nd in start recommendations on FanShare), he makes a great value on both sites here at the Byron Nelson.
World Golf Ranking (#63)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
The last five tourney current form was very close between Henley and Dufner but Henley gets the edge for me this week for a number of reasons. Dufner is the former winner of this event but Henley is definitely haveing the better season. He picked up a win back at the start of April at the Shell Houston Open and has three total Top 10's to Dufner's one. Henley also gets the edge in salary on both sites and also comes in a bit higher in the stats rankings. He ranks 10th in SG: T2G, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Bogey Avoidance and 14thin Birdie or Better % and also ranks lower down the list when looking at FanShareSports "Most Tagged List". All things considered, I will have much more exposure to Henley than Dufner but will have some of both for sure.
Who the Stats Like
World Golf Ranking (#69)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Finau is one of my favorite plays of the week as he is just one of four players in the field who rank Top 10 in all categories(Stats, Form, History) on my sheet. He ranks #2 in stats behind DJ with his 3rd rank in SG: T2G, 9th in SG: APP, 5th in Driving Distance, Top 10 in both GIR from 175-200 and 200+ yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring and 8th in Birdie or Better %. He has played here twice finishing T10 and T12 and is even a better player in 2017. Despite not winning yet(one in 2016), he has four Top 10 finishes which include three Top 5's. He is a top value/upside play on DraftKings and an even better value on FanDuel under $8K this week.
World Golf Ranking (#133)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Cauley comes in a bit farther down the list in my overall stats model(22nd) but stands out in a few categories and is a great value, especially on FanDuel in the mid $6K range. He is one of the players ranks a bit lower in the Driving Distance(64th) but still averages over 295 yards so it does not concern me at all. He does, however, rank 16th in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: APP, and 29th in Par 4 Scoring. Cauley is also coming in with a T5 at the team event Zurich Classic and had back to back Top 10's at the Valero Texas open and RBC Heritage
Top Low-End Value Plays
World Golf Ranking (#77)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Swafford comes in just under $7K on DraftKings and at the bottom of the $6K range on FanDuel and is one of my favorite value plays of the week. He fits the stats model ranking 13th in SG: OTT+APP, 10th in Driving Distance, 3rd in GIR from 200+, and 29th in Par 4 Scoring. He is definitely a GPP play with his up and down play missing five of 16 cuts this season but has the upside we are looking for in fantasy. He has a win at the CareerBuilder Challenge and three total Top 10 finishes in 2017. This will be his fourth trip to the Byron Nelson and he has improved his finish each year(CUT, T66, T34 last year).
World Golf Ranking (#196)
Vegas Odds (160/1)
Dipping down even further in the value pool, John Huh is one player that stands out on my cheatsheet. He fits the stats model nicely ranking 35th in SG: T2G, 32nd in SG: APP, 13th in Par 4 Scoring and 7th in Bogey Avoidance. He doesn't have the distance of other players but sits 20th overall in Good Drive % which is going to be key this week. He missed the cut here last year but made three straight before that including a T16 in 2014 and T8 in 2013. He has only been tagged five times so far and could be a very low owned option for stars and scrubs lineups.
If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/MLB talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!
**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**
AT&T Byron Nelson Update Thread
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.