Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - Dean & Deluca Invitational

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE.

 

Dean & Deluca Invitational

The Course

Colonial Country Club - Fort Worth, TX
Par 70 - 7,209 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass Greens

**Click to Enlarge**

 

Past Five Winners

• 2016 - Jordan Spieth (-17)
• 2015 - Chris Kirk (-12)
• 2014 - Adam Scott (-9)
• 2013 - Boo Weekley (-14)
• 2012 - Zach Johnson (-12)

 

The Stats & Fantasy Approach

My Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Par 5 Birdie or Better %
• Scrambling/Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Bogey Avoidance
• Strokes Gained: Approach

This week we get another Par 70 that features 12 Par 4's, four Par 3's and two par 5's. This automatically thrusts Par 4 Scoring into the spotlight and will be my key stat for the week. Behind that, I am looking at Par 5 BoB% as not only will golfers need to birdie these holes but Hole one also produced eight or more eagles in each of the last three years, four coming from players inside the Top 10 last season. With the smaller than average greens we will see the average GIR % down putting an emphasis on Scrambling and SG: Around the Green. Those who can gain strokes on the field with their approaches will be the ones who will frequent the leaderboard come Sunday so I will be looking, very close, as always, at SG:APP. As you will see with the early weather update at the bottom of the article it is projected to be windy all four days so make sure to check out the FutureofFantasy Breakdown of Top Wind Players.

 

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanShareSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". They have also added Salary Differential, Subject Tags and Projections. All the tools you need to help you become a better daily fantasy golf player.

 

Top Course History Targets

Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (#7)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Draftkings ($12,000)

He has played here four times finishing no worse than a tie for 14th and is your defending winner after posting a winning score of -17 last season. He always pops up on stats as well as he leads this week's field in SG:APP, Par 5 BoB%, Bogey Avoidance, overall BoB%, and is 4th in Par 4 Scoring. The issue has been the putting and Spieth is coming off a missed cut after switching. In fact, he has missed three of his last four cuts(not including the Zurich team event) which make him nowhere near safe for cash games but could possibly open a nice GPP window as his ownership has been trending down big time since the Masters. If he figures out the speed with his new putter, there is most definitely winning upside and despite the struggles, still sits in the Top 10 of average DK points per tournament.

 

Adam Hadwin
World Golf Ranking (#49)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)

I really could have fit Hadwin in any one of these sections this week.  Of the players who have played here more than once in the last five years, he trails only Spieth in average course history ranking with a T22 last year and T5 in 2015. Hadwin now comes back to Colonial CC in career best form. He picked up his first career win at the Valspar back in March and has four Top 10's and seven Top 25's in 15 starts. He has actually only missed one cut all year and it was his first event of the season way back in October at the Safeway Open. Hadwin also ranks 11th overall in my stats model and is one of just four players this week to rank inside the Top 15 in stats, course history, and current form on my cheatsheet. At $8,400, he is safe in all formats this week.

 

 

 

Top Current Form Targets

Sung Kang
World Golf Ranking (#84)
Vegas Odds (64/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)

After missing seven of his first 10 cuts on Tour this season, Kang has completely flipped the script. Since then he has made eight of his last 10 cuts with a runner-up at the Shell Houston Open and five total Top 25 finishes. He also stands out in the stats model ranking 13th overall highlighted by a 5th overall rank in Par 5 BoB%, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 22nd in Scrambling, and 29th in SG: APP. He has shown the winning upside we need for tournaments and will be tough to fade in the mid $7K range, even with high ownership.

 

 

Sergio Garcia
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($10,800)

Right behind Kang in form(last 5 tournies) sits the 2017 Masters Champion, Sergio Garcia. Kang may have his number slightly over the past five weeks but Garcia has the Green Jacket and has not only made all nine cuts this season but has finished Top 25 in six of them. He finished T30 at the PLAYERS and T20 last week thanks to some pretty awful final rounds(78/74). On the bright side, he did shoot a 65/64 on Friday/Saturday last week but struggled a bit overall losing .768 strokes to the field on his approach shots. I am not too worried about one of the games top ball striker's and we definitely know the upside that he brings to the table. He hasn't played here in four years but his last two finishes were T13 and T14 in 2012 and 2011. One more trend I have been liking is that Sergio, even after the Masters win, has seen a drop in ownership both weeks and if that trend continues, he makes an excellent option in all formats this week.

 

Who the Stats Like

Pat Perez
World Golf Ranking (#40)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)

Another mid $7K value play that continues to stand out from a statistical standpoint even as we approach the summer months. While the Off the Tee and Approach stats are nothing to write home about, he ranks Top 10 in the field in SG: ATG, Top 20 in SG: Putting, Par 4 Scoring, Scrambling and is 2nd behind only Spieth in Par 5 BoB%. He also comes back to Colonial with some course history with his last appearance in 2015 ended up with a T5 and he has also picked up four career Top 10's here and eight cuts made in 11 trips. Then there is the form. Perez has been extremely consistent this season and outside of a WD at the Wate Management Phoenix Open, he has made every cut with five Top 10's and 10 Top 25 finishes. Safe in all formats.

 

 

Marc Leishman
World Golf Ranking (#36)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)

One of my favorite plays of the week is Leishman who ranks inside the Top 25 in all categories(stats, form, history) but really stands out from a statistical standpoint. He is 7th in my stats model highlighted by his 17th rank in the field in SG: OTT, 13th in Par 4 Scoring, 18th in Par 5 BoB%, 14th in overall BoB% and 23rd in Scrambling. That right there is a nice consistent recipe for success here at Colonial. Speaking of success here, Leishman has enjoyed just that over the years making six of six cuts here and is overdue for his first Top 10 finish. Looking at FanShareSports on Tuesday AM, Leishman has been tagged eight times with just three start(now four) and one sit recommendation.  If you are fading the golfers in the $10K range and going with more of a balanced approach, Leishman makes a great play in all formats.

 

 

 

Top Low-End Value Play

Martin Laird
World Golf Ranking (#108)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($6,600)

Although he is coming off a missed cut at the PLAYERS, Laird has been another one of the most consistent golfers on Tour this season, especially when considering his $7,200 average salary. This week he comes in well under that in the mid $6K range making him a top GPP target for me this week. He ranks 20th in my overall model as he falls inside the Top 40 in all categories. After making his first five cuts here at Colonial, he missed his first one last year but I am not concerned at all as he was in horrible form. Things are much different this year as he has missed just two cuts in 14 starts and picked up four Top 10 finishes along the way showing he also has the upside. Statistically, he ranks higher than average in the Strokes Gained Metrics but is highlighted by his Top 20 rank in Par 4 Scoring, Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance. Skills that are at the top of the list this week.

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/MLB talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

Dean & Deluca Invitational Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.