Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/10/2017
Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/10/17

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Pitcher

EARLY

Carlos MartinezCarlos Martinez FD 10000 DK 12300
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @STL
FD - 37.43 DK - 24.6
We kick things off with an early afternoon game in St. Louis as the Cardinals continue their weekend series with the ever struggling Phillies. Carlos Martinez takes to the hill for the Cards and is in an excellent spot here. If we look to Martinez' game logs we see he has been the model of consistency this season. He fell apart late the last time out against the Reds after putting together 6 strong innings. His K rate is on the rise as his 9.98 K/9 sits nearly 1.25 higher than his career numbers, and his 3.39 xFIP is among the best in the bigs. Philadelphia meanwhile, despite showing some signs of life earlier this week down in Atlanta, are still the offense with a .305 wOBA, among the worst this season against right handed pitching while striking out 23.1% of the time against righties. I led off with Martinez here because for cash game purposes I love the safety he represents, however the system does feel you can do one better and save some salary in the process...

Jeff SamardzijaJeff Samardzija FD 9200 DK 10900
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @SF
FD - 38.48 DK - 25.28
Which leads us to the Shark. If you want to save some salary to load up on bats in the early slate, (and we'll get to why you might want to do that shortly) then Jeff Samardzija might be the way to go. For significant savings, particularly on DraftKings, you get an arm who isn't as highly favored to win as Martinez may be, but who the system loves from a PPD perspective, and that comes down to the strikeouts. The Twins strike out nearly 23% of the time against right handers, and Samardzija is one of the best in the game with his 10.62 K/9 ranking among the top ten in baseball. Despite their propensity to swing and miss however, the Brewers .331 team wOBA against the split is ranked seventh in Baseball at this point in the season, so if Shark isn't hitting his spot he could fall in to trouble early. I wouldn't completely fade Samardzija in cash game's, he's fine for all formats, with the potential upside being huge.

Gio GonzalezGio Gonzalez FD 8600 DK 8700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @WSH
FD - 29.98 DK - 19.86
Another nice GPP pick for the early slate, with significant upside potential for the price is Gio Gonzalez. Gio's 7.87 K/9 is down just a bit this season from his career totals but he hosts the Rangers this afternoon in Nationals Park, and Texas has been horrendous against southpaws this season with a .291 team wOBA and 25.9 strikeout percentage. Washington is a -188 early favorite in this one, and despite Gio's 4.55 xFIP and 4.80 SIERA he's allowed 2 runs or fewer in three of his last 5 outings, so he could prove a nice separation value play with monster upside potential.

MAIN

Chris SaleChris Sale FD 11400 DK 12700
Opponent - DET (Verlander) Park - @BOS
FD - 44.93 DK - 29.69
The evening slate is a little more cut and dry. Chris Sale. End of story. You want more you say? Alright then. Sale is going to cost you a pretty penny to roster into your SP slot, but the returns will be well worth it. The system Loves this guy, and with good reason, as the top raw projected point, and top point per dollar play on the evening slate and it doesn't even come close. Boston is coming in as -191 favorites against the Tigers, and despite the fact that Detroit sports a respectable .334 wOBA against lefties, Chris Sale isn't your typical lefty. First off, he is the best strikeout pitcher in the game right now, with 12.75 per nine. His 2.44 xFIP is also the best in the game, and honestly, any pitching stat you can name, if Sale isn't the best in baseball, he's probably knocking on the door. Cash game, tournament, doesn't matter, on the evening slate, Chris Sale is the play.

Catcher

EARLY

Brian McCannBrian McCann FD 3400 DK 3900
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.49 DK - 7.93
You're going to see a lot of love for the Astros on the early slate, and that should come as no real surprise. Houston has been one of the most explosive offenses in baseball this season, and they feature prominently in these articles on a near daily basis. Today, they get the added pleasure of stepping into the batters box against 34 year old right hander Ricky Nolasco. Twelve starts into the season, Nolasco has only 2 wins under his belt, he's is rocking a 5.05 ERA and his 4.45 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA don't suggest much better. McCann meanwhile is coming in with a .362 wOBA against right handed pitching which is fourth best among all catchers with 100 or more plate appearances this season. He's coming off of a strong series against the Royals in which he homered twice while going 7-12 at the plate. As a moderately priced play that bats in the middle of a potent offensive lineup McCann presents an abundance of fantasy potential for cash games, with plenty of tournament upside.

MAIN

Gary SanchezGary Sanchez FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @NYY
FD - 13.04 DK - 10.06
Just as we will see plenty of Astros love on the early slate, we can look forward to plenty of Yankees love on the Main slate, and with the right handed Chris Tillman throwing for Baltimore, that means we kick it off with Gary Sanchez. Sanchez has been a beast against right handed pitching this season, coming into the weekend series with a .353 wOBA and 122 wRC+ against righties. Tillman, who made his debut in early May just hasn't been the same since returning from that shoulder injury. His numbers through six starts this season show a sharp drop off from last seasons totals, with a 5.59 ERA and 5.53 xFIP, with a 1.27 K/BB ratio. As long as Sanchez is among the top six lineup spots, he's an excellent play.

Yan GomesYan Gomes FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.01 DK - 6.94
Everything we just covered with Sanchez against right handed pitching we can apply to Yan Gomes with lefties, and would you look at that, the Indians are facing a lefty tonight! Gomes has a .399 wOBa and 153 wRC+ against southpaws this season. He's reached base safely in four straight games, and last night opened the series against the White sox by going 1-2 at the plate with 2 walks and 2 RBI. If you're looking for salary relief behind the plate and just can't fit Sanchez into your evening lines, then Gomes makes an excellent value play.

First Base

EARLY

Ryan ZimmermanRyan Zimmerman FD 4000 DK 5100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.66 DK - 10.46
If you roll with Gio on the early slate, he should leave plenty of salary room for you to fit his cleanup hitter on the offensive side in as your first baseman. Zimmerman has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games, with 5 multi hit performances in that stretch. Zimmerman brings a .457 wOBA and 185 wRC+ into the weekend series against Texas, with home runs in 2 of his last 5 games. Today the Rangers will send Martin Perez to the hill, with his 4.64 ERA and 4.57 xFIP. Right handed hitters are hitting him with a .347 wOBa and 36.6 hard hit percentage. This bodes well for a power hitter like Zimmerman in hitter friendly Nationals Park.

Matt CarpenterMatt Carpenter FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @STL
FD - 11.46 DK - 8.74
If you don't roll Gio, and pay up for one of the pricier arms, then you need to find yourself some value and Matt Carpenter presents plenty of value at first. He didn't homer last night, but he did go 2 for 4 making him 5 for 12 with 2 home runs since moving to the St Louis leadoff spot. Today he will face young Nick Pivetta, making his sixth career start. Pivetta has been showing some heat with 9.25 K/9 but has struggled with location as evidenced by his 4.44 BB/9 and 1.85 HR/9. Carpenter could very well go yard again this afternoon, which would be the third time in 4 games.

MAIN

Eric ThamesEric Thames FD 3300 DK 4900
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.81
From a point per dollar perspective, particularly on FanDuel where he is severely under priced, the system sees Thames as an excellent play at first base on the evening slate. Thames is sitting in a tie with several other first basemen for second place with 16 home runs, which is just one shy of the 17 Zimmerman and Justin Smoak have. Against right handed pitchers he's got a .423 wOBA and 161 wRC+ which provides a favorable match up against Zack Godley. The 27 year old Godley has a 3.60 SIERA and 3.16 xFIP this season, and though he's only given up 2 home runs, this is Chase field, so the Park factor plays in Thames' favor.

Second Base

EARLY

Jose AltuveJose Altuve FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.98 DK - 10.16
We return for another dip in the Astros pool. This time with Jose Altuve, who sports the second best wOBA among all eligible secondbasemen with .388 and also has a 149 wRC+. Altuve was excellent on the teams recent road trip blasting two of his 9 home runs in the past six games, now he returns home to MinuteMaid Park and this afternoon will face Ricky Nolasco. While Nolasco is striking out a rather impressive 8.18/9 it's the balls in play that are killing him as he's allowing 2.45 HR/9, a .294 BABIP , and 1.38 WHIP. Altuve comes at a price, but he's well worth it as the top projected points play at the position for the day, and should be at the heart of any Astros stack.

MAIN

Starlin CastroStarlin Castro FD 3100 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.53 DK - 8.23
The system love Starlin Castro as one of the top point per dollar plays at second base today, and it's easy to see why. Castro has had a bit of a resurgence in the past couple of weeks, finding his way on base in 13 of his last 14 games, and scoring double digit FanDuel points in 5 of his last 7. On the season, he's rocking a .361 wOBA and 127 wRC+ with 9 home runs, and today he faces Chris Tillman. Right handed batters are hitting Tillman to the tune of a .304 wOBA with a 30.4 hard hit %. Although a Yankees stack is an excellent way to go with the evening games, Castro presents an excellent way to one off your exposure to the Yanks lineup at a reasonable price point.

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Shortstop

EARLY

Trea TurnerTrea Turner FD 4400 DK 5300
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.82 DK - 11.3
Last night we pushed Turner and he did nothing for us, but today I'm going right back to the well, because the match up can't be denied. Even with last night's lack of performance, Turner is returning an average of nearly 20 FD points per game over his last 6 contests with 2 triples, 4 walks and 7 stolen bases. Perez is allowing a .385 wOBA to left handed hitters this season along with a .472 BABIP and 1.85 WHIP. Don't let last night's 0-4 turn you off of Turner, I'm looking for him to return to form nicely today against Perez, and will definitely have a piece of the action.

Elvis AndrusElvis Andrus FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - WSH (Gonzalez) Park - @WSH
FD - 9.31 DK - 7.97
Yet another nice value on FanDuel, though I don't care for the DraftKings pricing here. Andrus is coming in to the afternoon with a 13 game hitting streak during which he has 6 doubles and 2 home runs. He's playing the Nats, so if you took Gio as your starting pitcher, then move along, but his FanDuel salary allows him to pair nicely with either of the more expensive options we presented to you above. A great cash game value.

MAIN

Francisco LindorFrancisco Lindor FD 3900 DK 5100
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.99
The Indians continue their weekend series against the White Sox tonight against David Holmberg. Holmberg, a 25 year old southpaw has bounced around a few different teams before finding himself back with the White Sox who originally drafted him. Since his debut in 2015 Holmberg has only made 14 big league starts, and 24 overall appearances. He's got a 6.02 career xFIP and 5.68 SIERA, while he walks as many batters as he strikes out. He's going to be completely outmatched on the hill against the Indians, and Francisco Lindor in particular. Lindor has been an extra base hitting machine this season, leading all shortstops in doubles (16) and home runs (12). He's got a .352 wOBA which climbs to .402 against lefties with a 44.3 hard hit percentage. I'll roll with Lindor in all formats this evening.

Third Base

EARLY

Wilmer FloresWilmer Flores FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.74 DK - 7.58
The Braves have called up Sean Newcomb who will make his big league debut in game one of the double header with the Mets. We don't know much of Newcomb outside of his minor league numbers, but even solid minor league numbers don't always translate to big league success, especially for a debut outing. Look for the New York batters to try and give him an unpleasant welcome to the big show. Wilmer Flores in particular has been hitting Left handed pitching very well this season, with a .431 wOBA and 173 wRC+ against southpaws and a 40 hard hit percentage. In new, hitter friendly Sun Trust Park, Flores is a phenomenal play, especially if hitting higher up in the order again.

MAIN

Josh DonaldsonJosh Donaldson FD 4400 DK 4900
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.62
The Don has officially returned! After spending the last half or April and most of May on the DL, Josh Donaldson is back to form and bringing the rest of the Toronto lineup up out of the gutter after a dismal start to the season. Since being activated on May 26th, Donaldson has reached base safely in all but one game with 5 home runs and three doubles in 41 at bats heading in to Seattle for the weekend series against the Mariners. Tonight Seattle sends Ariel Miranda and his 3.74 ERA to the hill. Miranda's 4.77 SIERA and 4.68 xFIP tell us he is due for regression and it could come off the bat of Donaldson who has crushed left handed pitching with a .408 wOBA against southpaws in his career.

Jake LambJake Lamb FD 4100 DK 5600
Opponent - MIL (Guerra) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.71
Thirtytwo year old Junior Guerra is making just his 25th career start today against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. Though he owns a 2.79 career ERA, his 4.47 SIERA and 4.36 xFIP paint a more accurate picture of the pitcher Jake Lamb will be facing when he steps to the batters box. Lamb has 2 hits in his last 3 games, both home runs, he also has 5 walks and 6 RBI. Against right handed pitching Lamb has a .440 wOBA and 7 of his 15 home runs have come against right handed arms in Chase Field. He's going to cost you, but Lamb is an elite play across the industry in all formats.

Outfield

EARLY

George SpringerGeorge Springer FD 4000 DK 5400
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.81 DK - 10.03
Josh ReddickJosh Reddick FD 3400 DK 4000
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.41
George Springer got the night off last night after never making it out of the batters box in 5 appearances during Thursday night's series wrap up in K.C., so he should be well rested for this afternoon's tilt at home against Ricky Nolasco and the Angels. the 0for on Thursday ended a 12 game hitting streak for Springer during which 9 of those games were multiple hit performances and 5 of which he went yard at least once. Josh Reddick meanwhile went 6-19 in the series against the Royals and if you can't afford Springer in your lineups, then Reddick makes for a nice pivot in an Astros stack, though I certainly encourage trying to fit both in together wherever possible. We've already covered why we want to target Nolasco, what better way to do so than with the top 2 in the Houston arsenal?

MAIN

Aaron JudgeAaron Judge FD 4600 DK 5400
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.8 DK - 9.1
Aaron Judge is lighting the big leagues on fire during his first full season run, leading all outfielders not named Trout with a ridiculous .457 wOBA and 193 wRC+ and his 18 home runs leads all of baseball. Sure he strikes out almost 30% of the time, but he also demonstrates patience at the plate with a 15% walk rate. Tonight he brings his .330/.436/.670 slash line to the plate against Chris Tillman, who's struggles this season we have already well documented. It's going to be tough, if not impossible to work Judge and Sale together in your lineups, but if you decide to go cheap at SP in your tournament line, then Judge certainly has the potential to make up for a Sale fade.

Jose BautistaJose Bautista FD 3700 DK 3400
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.41 DK - 8.57
It seemed like Joey Bats was beginning to turn things around with the return of the Don, but then he went on a 3 game skid, and 4 of 5 without making it on base. That said, he still comes in underpriced, particularly on DraftKings where they're practically begging you to play him. He's already 2-4 with a home run in the series opener as I write this. Tonight he faces Ariel Miranda, who isn't a terrible pitcher, but Bautista has a .372 career wOBA against lefties, with a 33.7 hard hit percentage against the split. Joey Bats is almost a must play across the baord on DraftKings, though I can understand if you want to limit him to tournaments on FanDuel.

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4 Visitor Comments

  1. Funny how there is no mention of rockies or cubs with a 12.5 over/under, 2 mediocre pitchers, and a 22 mph wind blowing out dead center.

  2. Jeff Hoffman is not mediocre my friend lmao

    • Your right. Cubs only have a 7 run projection. Small park with heavy winds makes kershaw mediocre even.

  3. After Sale who’s the the best tournament Pitcher to play?

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