Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/17/17
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If you've taken a even a cursory glance at the starting pitcher options for tonight, this pick only confirms what your already know: this slate is garbage. Even though the Rockies have cobbled together a solid staff and Marquez looks like a decent prospect, it's never fun to roster a pitcher in Coors Field and it's something we rarely recommend. But the combination of the Padres bats and this wretched pitching slate means we're willing to take a shot on Marquez, and hopefully get him at low ownership and solid prices. Marquez's numbers won't blow your mind (3.94 FIP, 7.9 Ks/9), but against the Padres, that'll play. San Diego has been one of the worst offenses in baseball this season, ranking 27th in wRC+ and 29th in wOBA vs. RHP. And that's with Hunter Renfroe in the lineup. With one of their only dangerous bats DL'd, there's just not much here to fear. Could they exploit the mile-high atmosphere and throw up a parade of crooked numbers? Sure. It's Coors. There are no rules. But they also have the highest K% in baseball vs. righties, so we see at least equal boom/bust likelihood for Marquez -- and even if the most likely outcome is somewhere in between, at least he's not costing you much.
And you thought the Marquez pick was gross. Chad Kuhl definitely comes with substantial risks, and though I'll admit to being a little skittish, the projection system really likes him -- at least from a value standpoint -- especially at his DK price. So, let's investigate. Kuhl has shown modest improvements lately, but even so, there's not a lot to be excited about in his 3.75 ERA/4.31 FIP and 7.3 Ks/9 over his last 10 starts. Really, his solid projections for tonight start with the opponent. The Brewers have been a below-average offense vs. RHP this season (97 wRC+), strike out in 25% of PAs (third most in baseball), and are getting a massive negative park shift. And that's pretty much the entire extent of the case for Kuhl. Certainly there's some stuff in there to like, and if he can work around the lefties successfully, he stands a good chance to deliver nice value tonight. But those lefties could be a problem. Kuhl's giving up a .388 wOBA in the split this season, so if you're rolling the dice on him in a couple of tournament lineups, it wouldn't be a bad idea to hedge with at least one Thames/Shaw-anchored Brewers stack somewhere in the mix.
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