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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

08/06/2017
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/6/17

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Pitcher

Chris ArcherChris Archer FD 10600 DK 11300
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @TB
FD - 39.9 DK - 26.33

While we do have some big names on this slate, pitching is still a bit suspect. The good arms are in somewhat tough matchups and the ballparks aren't great. The one guy who stands out is Chris Archer. Archer and the Rays host the Brewers in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. We know how bad the Brewers are against righties. While a lot of the numbers are inflated by some crazy hitting in the first couple months, they still hold just a .324 wOBA. They also strikeout at an insane 25.5% rate, which is leading the league. Archer fits the mold perfectly to face these guys, as a K-heavy arm that relies on free swingers. He strikes out over 11 batters per 9 innings and has sported a .301 combined wOBA, he pitches better at home and has CGSO upside. Archer is the top option on the slate in both cash games and tournaments.

Jon LesterJon Lester FD 9500 DK 10200
Opponent - WSH (Fedde) Park - @CHC
FD - 37.9 DK - 24.93

If you want to pivot down from Archer, we do have a solid option in Jon Lester. While the Nats are a team you typically stay away from, they can be targeted from the left side. We still have Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman to worry about, but it's better than Harper and Murphy. Lester is lights out against lefties, which blanks at least 3-4 guys in the Nats order. Against righties, he's allowed a .330 wOBA. He's struck out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings and has finally started limiting the running game, albeit in a small way. The Cubs are also big favorites here at home against Fedde, who has a lot of learning to do. Lester will very rarely burn you and this is another match-up where he should go 6-7 innings, strikeout 7 and get the W. I will say he's a bit safer than Archer, though not by much. Lester does have the blow-up potential and it gets very ugly on the rare occasion. Vegas has the Nats below 4.25 runs, which you will very rarely see. Lester is a solid option in all formats and could potentially go under-owned.

Catcher

Victor MartinezVictor Martinez FD 2700 DK 3000
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.73

Victor Martinez has regained C eligibility over at FanDuel and makes for a great option tonight. V-Mart is actually the only Tigers bat we will touch on, but he is definitely in play. Ubaldo Jimenez has been absolutely pitiful so far in 2017 against both lefties and righties. Against lefties, Jimenez has allowed a .412 wOBA and 15 homers in under 50 innings. These are some of the bottom-barrel numbers you can have. Jimenez is bad and needs to get out of this league before long. The Tigers should put up some runs on him today and you can target them anywhere. Martinez will be in the 5 or 6 hole and hit from the left side. As a switch-hitter, he will hold the platoon advantage throughout the game. Camden Yards is a bam-box and Martinez has a much better shot hitting an HR here than in Comerica Park.

Welington CastilloWelington Castillo FD 3100 DK 4400
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.4

The Orioles come in as one of our top offenses on the slate. Facing off with Anibal Sanchez, the entire order is in play. Anibal Sanchez is one of the worst pitchers on the slate and it isn't close. In just over 60 innings of work, Sanchez has allowed a .365 combined wOBA. He's allowed 14 homers and hasn't shown any signs of slowing it down. He now moves into Camden yards and faces one of the toughest offenses around in the Orioles. Welington Castillo may be better against lefties, but a .331 wOBA over the last 2 years is nothing to scoff at vs righties. Castillo has as much HR upside as anyone at catcher and shouldn't be higher than 10% owned.

First Base

Chris DavisChris Davis FD 3300 DK 3600
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.28 DK - 9.88

Chris Davis is always going to be a boom or bust play and this is a perfect spot for him. If he is ever going to hit an HR in a spot, this is the one. Anibal Sanchez is absolutely awful and he's been allowing hits and runs up and down every start. He now moves into one of the toughest ballparks in the game to face the deadly Orioles. Chris Davis has been pretty solid this year against righties, posting a .329 wOBA and belting 14 homers. He has started to pick it up as of late and seems to always be completely overlooked at a fruitful 1B position. His price is very solid tonight and you need to fit Davis into some cash games and tournaments. This is one of those games where a guy could hit 2 homers without the blink of an eye.

Matt CarpenterMatt Carpenter FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.22

Chris Davis and Matt Carpenter are about as opposite as you can get. From a tournament-centric, swing for the fences type of guy in Chris Davis, to a patient, methodical hitter in Matt Carpenter. Carpenter and the Cards head into The Great American Ballpark to face off with the Reds and Homer Bailey. Homer Bailey, as we know, isn't very good. He's allowed a .391 combined wOBA and has had serious troubles against both sides of the plate. Matt Carpenter is one of the purest hitters in the game and his numbers against righties speak for themselves (.397 wOBA, 34% hard contact rate). The move to the Great American Ballpark is huge for these Cards and they have real HR potential here. Homer Bailey is one of the league's worst arms and the Reds bullpen isn't much better. Don't be afraid to take a shot on a very cost-effective Matt Carpenter.

Second Base

Jonathan SchoopJonathan Schoop FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.09 DK - 9.32

We've touched a ton on these Orioles, but you almost have to against Anibal Sanchez. He has been just so awful. With a .391 combined wOBA and a K rate that barely gets off the floor, you have to love the Orioles. Jonathan Schoop in particular, has made a name for himself in Baltimore. He has destroyed right-handers on the season with a .370 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate. He's one of the league's top overall 2B and I don't think the general public is ready to treat him that way. Schoop is a 40 HR threat and an amazing weapon at 2B. don't be afraid of the high price tag. Schoop has limitless upside in this match-up with a guy who gives up XBH's like it's nobodies business. All in all, the Orioles ae one of the best offenses on this slate and have the potential to go way overlooked.

Dee GordonDee Gordon FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - ATL (Sims) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.88 DK - 8.51

We know what the deal is with Dee Gordon. There's nothing fancy to it. We want him to get on first base and swipe a bag or two. He can do it each and every night and it can be tough to tell when to play him. He faces off with Lucas Sims tonight, who doesn't have a very strong move. I will bet Gordon is stealing every time he sees the bases. Sims is a pretty quality prospect, but still expected to struggle pretty heavily. The Marlins are expected to put up over 4 runs and have been playing much better in hitter-friendly SunTrust Park. Gordon is the spark plug for this offense and should be able to get things going against the youngster Sims.

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Shortstop

Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.72 DK - 9.37

The Red Sox haven't been mentioned yet, but are surely one of our top offenses on the day. They faced James Shields last night and did some quality damage. They see a very similar arm in Mike Pelfrey today. While Pelfrey is far worse against lefties, he's not good against righties. We'll get to him more later, but just know he stinks. As for Bogaerts, he got the game off last night and should be plenty fresh. He'll be in the top 5 of the order and has to be considered one of the top cash game plays. Bogaerts is terrific against both sides of the plate and often rides with the flow of the offense. The Sox are expected to put up a bunch of runs here and Xander should join in on the fun. His price is gold and his upside is unquestioned.

Eduardo EscobarEduardo Escobar FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.46 DK - 7.46

The Twins got shut down by Cole Hamels last night and will look to bounce back here against much weaker competition. In fact, they're facing off with a bottom 10% starter in the league. Nick Martinez is a guy we've been picking on for a long time and it looks like it won't stop anytime soon. He's allowed a .372 wOBA against lefties with peripherals that look in line. Eduardo Escobar may not be the best hitter in the world, but he sees a phenomenal lineup spot on a team projected to put up over 5 runs. He's got some power and enough speed to get it done. Escobar is certainly one of the safest options at SS and he comes in at a very feasible price tag.

Third Base

Miguel SanoMiguel Sano FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.76 DK - 9.54

Miguel Sano is a guy you want to target as much as possible. The man is going to hit 49 homers and he'll do it every year he's healthy. He smokes both righties and lefties and does it with a 45% hard contact rate. Today, he faces off with Nick Martinez. While Martinez is far worse against lefties, he's not good against righties either. He's held a .319 wOBA and allowed 11 homers in under 50 innings. Sano is a monster and has sported an .353 wOBA against righties with 19 homers. Third base isn't as stacked as normal and the top 2 in Sano and Devers stand out. Personally, Sano has found his way into more lineups. He's my pick for HR of the night and I have been 3/3 with him in the past. Let's see!

Rafael DeversRafael Devers FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.16 DK - 9.79

You won't often catch me playing a rookie in this price range. Rafael Devers is no ordinary rookie. Devers is a dynamic playmaker who can hit the ball anywhere and make things happen. He hits from the left side as well, which is a huge plus in this match-up with Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey, who just turned 33, has allowed a .377 wOBA and 11 homers in 40 innings against righties. It's plain pitiful. Fenway Park is a great park for hitting and the Sox are expected to put up over 6 runs by Vegas. Devers doesn't have enough MLB experience to really judge, but he did sport over a .370 wOBA against righties in AA/AAA. He's an elite option and nearly a must if you're stacking the Sox.

Outfield

Mookie BettsMookie Betts FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 15.35 DK - 12.56
Andrew BenintendiAndrew Benintendi FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.56 DK - 10.97

These 2 guys were staples in my cash games last night. Benintendi ended up hitting a homer and Betts was just fine. He could have and should have been much better, if not for some missed opportunities. They draw a similar match-up tonight in Mike Pelfrey. The big difference with Pelfrey is his inability to get lefties out. Benintendi is my favorite OF'er here and Betts should hop along for the ride. Pelfrey, as I've mentioned, allowed a .377 wOBA against lefties in 2016. He has a huge a huge HR issue and I expect Fenway to only magnify that. Both of these guys have sported +.370 wOBA's against righties and are more than suited to face off with Pelfrey. They should be highly owned and are top options in all formats. Fire away against Pelfrey.

Ender InciarteEnder Inciarte FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.7 DK - 8.3

Ender Inciarte is undoubtedly one of the best players around that nobody talks about. Outside of the 3 cities he dramatically impacted, he's basically an unknown. Let's take advantage of that and play him in a spot where he should be nearly 20-25% owned. Jose Urena is a very average rookie righty and he struggles to hold runners. Outside of Inciarte and his .300 AVG, he can swipe bases with the best of em. This entire Braves team is very sneaky tonight against a young Marlins arm who has been destroyed on the road. He's far from mature enough to pitch and I see this Braves order inflicting some damage.

Max KeplerMax Kepler FD 2600 DK 3000
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.2 DK - 8.79

We'll cap off our Twins exposure in the outfield with Max Kepler. Kepler, like Sano, is a name you should get used to. He's a mainstay in the least as a dynamic bat. In Keplers' case, he's held a .352 wOBA against righties with a 36.7% hard contact rate. He faces off with Nick Martinez, who we've touched on plenty. He has held a .372 wOBA against lefties and has had trouble keeping the ball inside the park. Martinez doesn't have a long future in the majors and we need to be stacking against him while we can. The Twins are setup to have a huge night and Kepler should join in on the fun. Kepler is always a risky option, but makes for a cost effective play with insane upside.

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Andy 08/06/2017

    You’ve been great man but not one cub can Fedde who gave up 7 in 3 innings his last start

  2. Henry Chang 08/06/2017

    only one Cub did anything, maybe he knew it.

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