Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/10/16

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James PaxtonJames Paxton FD 10100 DK 12300
Opponent - LAA (Skaggs) Park - @SEA
FD - 40.8 DK - 26.86

Despite the Angels striking out just below league average(19.6%) vs. left-handed pitching, they rank 29th in wOBA(.291) and 27th in wRC+(84) and don't pose a huge threat outside of Mike Trout. This has Paxton leading the way in PTS/$ when looking at the top tier pitchers tonight and he has been the hottest pitcher in the league(1.9 WAR) in the second half. He has won all five of his starts, posting a 1.41 ERA, 1.95 xFIP and has combined that with an elite 11.53 K/9 rate. He has also been a tick better at home where he has recorded a 2.15 ERA and limited opponents to a .212 average overall. All things considered, he is my top pitcher of the night.

Danny SalazarDanny Salazar FD 9200 DK 11700
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 34.31 DK - 22.7

While Salazar's ERA(4.32) and walk rate(3.96 BB/9) would have you think he is a GPP only play, I think you can actually consider him for cash games, especially on FanDuel. He has been at his best in the second half winning three straight starts where he went a total of 20 innings allowing just three earned runs while striking out 28 and walking just five. He is not qualified in the stat categories as he missed some time and has just 75 innings under his belt but sits behind only Chris Sale when looking at the K rate(12.6 K/9). When predicting strikeouts tonight he is tops on the list as he gets an elite matchup vs. the Rays who K 25% vs. righties and have struck out 28% of the time over the last 14 days.

Lance LynnLance Lynn FD 8300 DK 7800
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @STL
FD - 32.29 DK - 21.32

The second starting pitcher spot on DraftKings is tough tonight which will most likely lead me to pay up for two top tier options. If you just can't stomach rostering multiple punt/value plays, I think Lance Lynn makes a nice choice for some safety and salary relief. Nothing really stands out with Lynn as he has slightly above average strikeout upside(7.73 K/9) and an xFIP(4.59) that is almost a run and a half higher than the ERA(3.12) but he has been very consistent lately. He has held opponents to two or less earned runs in seven straight starts and in 17 of his 22 starts this season. The Royals are another team that doesn't strike out a whole bunch but ranks in the bottom third in almost all other statistical categories. The savings should allow enough room to upgrade to two more big bats.


Brian McCannBrian McCann FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.05

He trails only Gary Sanchez in raw points projections tonight but due to the big discount, leads the way in PTS/$ and is my top catcher of the night. While it might seem off playing a lefty/lefty matchup but digging into the numbers we quickly realize McCann has been a bit better vs. southpaws this season. He comes into with a .349 wOBA and 121 wRC+(.303/90 vs. RH) and has struck out just under 3% less. He faces a pitcher in Carlos Rodon who has elite K upside but walks over four and a half batters per nine and has allowed eight home runs in his seven starts(22.9% HR/FB rate). At these prices, he is safe in all formats.

Austin BarnesAustin Barnes FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - ARI (Banda) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.53 DK - 7.55

He has been out of the lineup since Sunday when he got hit in the throwing hand but is projected to jump back in the lineup on Thursday. He was actually expected back Wednesday but an extra day of rest doesn't hurt. He has provided us a limited 165 plate appearance sample size but has impressed with a .395 wOBA and 148 wRC+ and while the average sits a little lower vs. left-handed pitching, he has still provided the power numbers with a .387 wOBA and 142 wRC+. First game back it is a bit of a risk but the low salary more than makes up for it.

First Base

Eric ThamesEric Thames FD 2900 DK 3800
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIL
FD - 13.79 DK - 10.66

Thames leads the way when looking at raw points projections in the system due to his raw power upside and the matchup. His struggles lately have hurt his average but helped bring his FanDuel salary back below $3K where he is an elite PTS/$ play tonight. He has just two home runs in the second half but 25 for the season and sits in a great spot to add to the at total tonight vs. Kyle Gibson. Over his last three starts he has given up 18 hits, 10 earned runs and for the season has given up a 19.3% HR/FB rate and over 36% hard contact against. He should be limited to GPP only on DraftKings in the high $3K range but is safe in all formats on FanDuel if you are paying up for a pitcher.

Edwin EncarnacionEdwin Encarnacion FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.46

The story for Encarnacion is very similar to Thames as he had a big first half but is struggling to find the same rhythm over the past month.  The big difference and the reason for the larger salary is the fact EE strikes out about 7% less than Thames and provides much more consistent power overall with a proven track record. Tonight he faces lefty Blake Snell who hasn't lived up to his potential in his young career and has given up three earned runs or more in four straight and seven of his last eight starts. From a power upside perspective, he has also allowed at least one home run in four straight and eight of his last nine starts.
Also Consider: Kendrys Morales(TOR)




Second Base

Jose AltuveJose Altuve FD 4300 DK 5500
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.79 DK - 11.56

It will be tough to fit Altuve in cash games but if you do decide to pay up for one high-end bat you have to consider him tonight. He has been great all season but an absolute beast in the second half with an elite .430/.459/.667 slash line with a league leading 207 wRC+. The matchup vs. Rodon is almost perfect as Altuve's strength is his patience and amazing contact at the plate while Rodon's strength is the strikeout while he walks nearly five batters per nine. Even if Altuve doesn't hit one out, he will have plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points through hits, walks, steals and runs as the Astros hold the highest implied run total of the night.

Jed LowrieJed Lowrie FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.21 DK - 7.06

The lack of mid-tier Sp2 options on DraftKing is likely going to force us to roster two expensive pitchers which will force us to find multiple value options. My favorite place to punt on slates like this are the catcher position and middle infield positions. Enter Jed Lowrie who isn't going to flash much upside but comes very cheap on both sites and has been consistent. He enters the night with hits in six straight and nine of his last 10 games giving him a .337 wOBA and 115 wRC+ for the season. He also gets a boost tonight if he is back up in the three hole for the Athletics.
Also Consider: Logan Forsythe(LAD)



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Francisco LindorFrancisco Lindor FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.9

The safest player at the position tonight is Lindor for a few reasons. First of all, he has been incredibly consistent lately with hits in 16 of his last 18 games(.421 wOBA/167 wRC+) with four home runs and 11 runs scored. Then you consider he has absolutely mashed left-handed pitching this season(.391 wOBA/146 wRC+) and gets to face Blake Snell who has allowed 3+ earned runs in seven of his last eight starts and home runs in eight of his last nine starts and you have an elite play regardless of price.

Marcus SemienMarcus Semien FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.6

Back to Oakland for another value play up the middle. He started off the season slow then hit the disabled list for three months and has looked better since the All Star break hitting .265 with a .319 wOBA and 102 wRC+. Those numbers don't jump off the page by any means but for a low $3K price tag, he does have some power upside as he hit 27 and 15 home runs the last two seasons for the A's. The risk is a sacrifice we must make tonight if we are going to roster two high-end pitchers.


Also Consider: Paul Dejong(STL)



Third Base

Manny MachadoManny Machado FD 4200 DK 4800
Opponent - OAK (Smith) Park - @OAK
FD - 13.09 DK - 10.09

Last time I wrote up Machado I mentioned how he was tearing up the second half despite being limited in the power department. Well, that is not the case anymore as he has clubbed four long balls since I last recommended him and now has hits in 20 of 26 games since the All Star Break. While you would think the Oakland Coliseum would be a downgrade for hitters that hasn't been the case this season as it ranks 10th overall when looking at runs scored and 12th in home runs. Better yet, Machado gets to face Chris Smith who has given up a home run every time he has touched the mound this season and enters tonight with a 4.82 ERA and 5.40 xFIP. Machado is safe in all formats.

Derek DietrichDerek Dietrich FD 3300 DK 3400
Opponent - WSH (Roark) Park - @WSH
FD - 8.41 DK - 6.46

I went away from the system a bit with my value pick at third base. He ranks down a bit when looking at PTS/$ as he hits down in the five and six hole for the Marlins but has been very consistent lately with hits in 10 of his last 13 games including five multi-hit efforts and three home runs. That is more than we could ask for from a player in the low $3K range on both sites. The matchup isn't all the at bad either as Tanner Roark has been nothing more than just an average arm with a 4.82 ERA and 4.34 xFIP on the season.
Also Consider: Matt Chapman(OAK)





Chris TaylorChris Taylor FD 4000 DK 5100
Opponent - ARI (Banda) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.79
Cody BellingerEnrique Hernandez FD 2000 DK 3300
Opponent - ARI (Banda) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.41 DK - 7.3

The Dodgers have been an absolute force this season with .705 winning percentage, 15 game lead in the NL West, and they rank Top 5 when looking at overall run production. They have been even better against southpaws this season ranking 3rd in wOBA(.348) and wRC+(116) and second to only the Tigers with a .212 ISO. One of the offensive leaders and surprises this season has been Chris Taylor who comes in with a .312/.376/.546 slash line that includes 15 home run. He has pushed his way up the order and is now the Dodgers regular leadoff hitter which gives him a ton of opportunities and he has even added 15 stolen bases for extra value. Hernandez is always a viable punt option, especially on FanDuel, when facing a lefty as he has been much better with an average that stands 60 points higher with a .392 wOBA and 146 wRC+.

Domingo SantanaDomingo Santana FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.72 DK - 9.13

The Brewers let us down last night as they were shutout by the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon. Ok, I might have gone too far with "wonder". Either way, I will be going right back to the well tonight and it starts with Santana who has been occupying the leadoff spot over the past couple games. He isn't going to provide you with high average but has an elite .371 OBP for the season and has set a new career high in home runs, RBI, runs, and stolen bases. He and the Brewers once again get an opportunity to take advantage of a great matchup as Kyle Gibson has struggled giving up 17 earned runs over his last four starts. Santana is safe in all formats.

Mark TrumboMark Trumbo FD 3300 DK 3500
Opponent - OAK (Smith) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.4 DK - 8.66

For safety, I would much rather roll with Santana at the same price on FanDuel but it is going to be hard to avoid the value with Trumbo on DraftKings at a $1,000 discount. I still wouldn't trust him in cash games as he is just one game removed from a stint on the DL(ribs) and was in a slump before that but he comes with a ton of upside tonight. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, he has shown reverse splits and has been better vs. righties and faces a pitcher in Chris Smith who has given up a home run in every game this season and sits with a 4.82 ERA and even worse 5.40 xFIP in four starts and one relief appearance.







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1 Visitor Comment

  1. Note: Kyle Gibson will not be starting for the Twins it will be Dietrich Enns making his MLB debut. He is not available on either site tonight.

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