Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/21/17

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Pitcher

Alex Wood FD 9700 DK 12100
Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @PIT
FD - 36.12 DK - 23.81

When first glancing at this slate, one thing becomes very clear. Pitching is not easy to find. We have 1 elite option in Alex Wood and then not much after that. Fortunately, we do have a strong cash game option in Alex Wood. Wood and the Dodgers will travel into PNC Park to take on the Pirates, who are very average against lefties with a .316 wOBA. They have some big bats like Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte, but also have the Chris Stewart and Jordy Mercers of the world to even it out. Wood is having the best season of his career with a .259 combined wOBA and a 9.36 K/9. He has been good in nearly every start and has actually shown ace tendencies. He's the most expensive option on the board, but you really don't have an option in cash games. There is no pivot that you can say with even 50% certainty is as safe as Wood. All in all, he will be in close to 100% of cash games and I will be jumping on board there. As for tournaments, it'll be interesting to see how the trends end up. If Wood is going to be insanely owned, I may make a pivot towards our next guy in GPP's.

Tyler Skaggs FD 6600 DK 6700
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @LAA
FD - 29.8 DK - 19.7

If you're a big baseball fan in general, Tyler Skaggs is a name you know. He was a big prospect for a while, came up and produced, and then got hurt. He's now working his way back into things and is allowing close to 100 pitches on his arm each start. Skaggs is an extremely talented starting pitcher and he does have the upside to shut down an offense. As a lefty, I will say Skaggs is much worse against righties. He tends to float the fastball and we all know what can happen when you do that to an Adrian Beltre or Mike Napoli. Still, the Rangers have a bunch of lefties and the righties they do have can strike out plenty. The Rangers currently hold a 3.90 implied run total, which is the 2nd lowest behind the Pirates. As I mentioned, this slate isn't one for the kindhearted. Skaggs isn't safe, but nobody after Alex Wood is. Skaggs is cheap enough where you can pay up for all the bats and still have the upside to take down a tournament. To be clear, Wood will be in 100% of my cash games. 100%. In tournaments, I'll try to sprinkle some Tyler Skaggs and Zach Davies.

Catcher

Omar Narvaez FD 2400 DK 3100
Opponent - MIN (Gee) Park - @CHW
FD - 6.76 DK - 5.26

Catcher may be the only position uglier than pitcher. It also might be the only position where the highest owned guy is more heavily owned than Alex Wood. Yasmani Grandal is the only guy on this list with any type of upside, but we'll get to him in a minute. For now, let's focus on a punt in Omar Narvaez. Narvaez may not be a tremendous hitter, but he's held a .321 wOBA against righties and will find himself in the 5 or 6 hole. He is price is way too cheap and the match-up with Dillon Gee is solid. You can then recognize that Narvaez will only be 5-10% owned as most people were far more interested in Yasmani Grandal. I definitely like both and will do my best to get exposure where it should be. His price is super low and there is an unquestioned merit in paying up. Let's touch on the chalk now.

Yasmani Grandal FD 3400 DK 3800
Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.62 DK - 7.91

In cash games, it'll be pretty tough to get off of Yasmani Grandal. While Gerrit Cole is a pretty good pitcher, he's worse against lefties and there is literally no other quality catcher on the island. Grandal is a real hitter and he will be hitting behind elite options like Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Guys will be on-base and Grandal will have the opportunity to drive them in. Against lefties, Cole has sported a .345 wOBA and has allowed 15 homers in just 60 innings of work. PNC Park is better for lefties and Grandal is definitely fairly priced. He's the fairy obvious option at a catcher position that lacks consistency and upside. I will get exposure to both of these guys, but don't really have a preference either way. If money is no object, Grandal is the guy I take for raw points. If everything is being considered, let's take a shot on Omar Narvaez. This is a weird slate and you can use that difference in salary to be contrarian elsewhere as well. and not just catcher

First Base

Yonder Alonso FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.24 DK - 7.58

This is one of my plans to win on this slate. On a set of games with some very obvious ways to go (Orioles, Alex Wood), people are going to have some very similar lineups. I absolutely hate this in tournaments and will do anything possible to switch it up. Tonight, I think the best option at 1st base is going to be way under-owned. I could be way off here, but I imagine the public coming in around 15% on Alonso. If you're reading this later in the day and he is getting picked up by a lot of experts, he may be a bit more popular. In that case, I'd be more willing to look elsewhere. However, if the 15% I expect comes in, Alonso is one of my favorite options on the slate. He is an absolute menace against righties and will be hitting in the lefty-friendly SunTrust Park. Alonso was traded to the Mariners a bit ago and has yet to make a huge impact, but inevitably will. He has sported a .385 wOBA on the year with 19 homers against righties. In my eyes, Alonso is an elite 1B. He is up there with the cream of the crop against righties, let alone this one. Mike Foltynewicz is a lot like his counterpart in Julio Teheran. They both stink against lefties and are extremely effective against righties. We'll touch on Folty later, but he's held a .366 wOBA against lefties, so do what you will.

Trey Mancini FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - OAK (Smith) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.26 DK - 8.63
Chris Davis FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - OAK (Smith) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.05

The Orioles are the top offense on this slate and it's no secret. They hold an implied total close to  6 and is really the only offense you can target with no caution. Chris Smith is a name you probably never heard of, so you may think he's a youngster. Nope. Chris Smith is a 36-year-old right-hander who pitched in the majors for the first time in 2008. He absolutely stinks and has been bouncing around AA and AAA ever since. I guess you have to reward his effort, because it's not the performance that got him back here. He's been average in AAA at best and there is absolutely n0 reason for the Athletics to be pitching him. He's allowing a 2.09 HR/9 and can be targeted by everyone in this lineup. This is a guy who should have been sent home 8-10 years ago. Maybe the Orioles will sign and seal his final fate. Both Chris Davis and Trey Mancini rake against righties and both are great plays. Mancini is a bit safer for cash games and Chris Davis can hit 3 HR's without blinking. Mancini is also a bit cheaper, so will probably end up there anyways.

Second Base

Jonathan Schoop FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - OAK (Smith) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.69

Second base is a position you will need to hit on the head. We have a few very solid options and I do think at least 1 of them has a big game, if not more. Jonathan Schoop is the 2nd Baltimore Oriole we will look at and is my 2nd favorite on the team. He's actually phenomenal against righties, sporting a .363 wOBA with 16 home runs. Yes, 16 against just righties. He's hitting the ball hard 39.9% of the time and turning that into a 22% HR/FB rate. When Schoop comes to the plate, he's trying to do one thing. Hit the ball as far as humanly possible. With that being said, he's not stupid. He's not going to at like a brainless little-leaguer (*cough* Carlos Gomez *cough*) and swing at wild pitches with the bases loaded. Schoop is actually a very good baseball player and his instincts will kick in if he shouldn't be swinging for the fences. He's a must in an Orioles stack and can hit 2 HR without surprise. While you may be tempted to go Cano, I really think they are pretty even. Take your choice.

Robinson Cano FD 4000 DK 4400
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.89 DK - 9.07

While I slightly prefer Jonathan Schoop, I would be playing a lot of Robinson Cano in this match-up on most slates. I will still force myself into some Cano ownership, due to just how great of a matchup this is. Seeing Cano hit in a park like this is somewhat euphoric. It takes you back to the Yankee days when he would bunt balls over the wall and hit .320 with his eyes closed. When he gets into a park like this against a righty, he reminds you why the Mariners paid him a whopping 240 million dollars. While that's a whole other discussion, he's only $4000 tonight, so I guess we get a pretty big discount. He'll be facing off with Mike Foltynewicz, who we just touched on. He's given up a .366 wOBA to lefties on the year and has a constant battle against left-handers. This ballpark will only hurt his cause as it's played as the 4th best park in baseball so far for lefty power. Robbie Cano is still an elite hitter and he's held a .361 wOBA against righties. This match-up is absolutely perfect for Cano here and he is right on line with Schoop. I will likely end up with the guy I think will be less popular.

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Shortstop

Eduardo Escobar FD 2500 DK
Opponent - CHW (Fulmer) Park - @CHW
FD - 8.72 DK - 6.9

Eduardo Escobar is easily my most owned SS on the season. I feel like I play him every day and tonight will be no different. He is always priced so fairly and finds himself in the 4 or 5 hole on frequent occasion. He hits the ball hard and as a switch-hitter, is always holding the platoon advantage. Tonight, he faces off with a young righty in Carson Fulmer. Fulmer is a big prospect that has been rushed through the minors. He allowed a 4.11 xFIP in AA last year and hasn't been better this year. Fulmer will eventually be a strong starting pitcher in this league, but it will be a while. He's just 23 years old and is going to have some inevitable rough patches to start. The Twins are a lethal offense and even a guy like Eduardo Escobar can send one deep. The price is low as well, giving you freedom at other positions. Escobar is easily my top option at SS for both formats. As of now, he's in 100% of my lineups. That may not change.

Francisco Lindor FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.84

If I do end up fading Escobar on any roster, I will get some Francisco Lindor. Lindor is one of the most talented SS's in baseball and is elite against lefties. Eduardo Rodriguez and the Boston Red Sox move into Cleveland to face off with the Indians. Rodriguez is a tough pitcher to figure out, but he's not too great. He's allowed a 4.53 xFIP and a .371 wOBA to righties, compared to a .310 against lefties. he has, however, sported a .263 BABIP against lefties and a .400 against righties, so it makes sense. He's allowed 10 homers to righties already and the hard contact is there at over 30%. Lindor, a switch-hitter, is better against lefties. He's held a .373 wOBA and has hit 7 of his 20 homers against them. Progressive Field is pretty average for hitting and I do think the Indians put up more than a few runs. Lindor will be in the heart of the order and have opportunities to drive them in. The price is high, but it'll keep the ownership way down. This is an upside play and not a guy you play with Alex Wood, at least in my opinion. Eduardo Escobar is in a good enough spot for me at $2500.

Third Base

Manny Machado FD 4100 DK 5600
Opponent - OAK (Smith) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.99 DK - 11.6

Here we have my favorite hitter on this slate. While I think a lot of people share that sentiment, 3rd base is good enough to draw some ownership elsewhere. If Machado was at any other position, he may find himself close to 70% owned. I look for him to be around 30-40% here, which is fine with the limited options. We've looked at Chris Smith and there isn't much else to say. Unless he has some surprise magic pitch, I don't think he has too much fun here. This is a guy who was stuck in the minor for literally 8 years without moving up. That is not normal or common in any way. Most players are on the couch if not in the majors by 30, let alone 36. I give Smith props, but don't really care about how he does. I like these Orioles bats a hell of a lot more. Machado has 19 homers against righties on the year and a .336 BABIP that's on it's way up. Camden Yards is one of the best parks in the league for hitting and it's a big reason the O's are expected to put up so many runs here. All in all, the O's come down to ownership. Since I'm writing this the night before, I can't really tell how the industry is reacting. Keep an eye on Twitter and make a pivot if any hitter is over 60% in tournaments. I don't care if it's Barry Bonds against James Shields, I'll never play a guy over 60% in tourneys if I can help it. This is baseball and the chances of success with a pivot are almost always worth it.

Jake Lamb FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - NYM (Gsellman) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.7 DK - 8.91

If you're going on the wild side and avoiding Manny Machado, I think you still pay up. if you can find a 3B that ends up outscoring Machado, you are a long way towards cashing. Lamb is my favorite of the bunch and I think he has the best chance to have a huge game. The Diamondbacks are on the road in Citi Field, which has ranked 8th this year for power, though it has a lot to do with the Mets power lefties that are now gone. Lamb and the Diamondbacks will face off with Robert Gsellman, who has been absolutely atrocious. In 70 total innings, he's allowed 14 homers and a .369 wOBA to lefties. We know that Lambis one of the best hitters at 3B in the game and may be the best against righties, holding a .407 wOBA and smacking 22 homers. He plastered one against Colon just last night and will look to do it again here. He's much cheaper than Machado and I really do love him as a pivot in tourneys. If you're pressed for cash, I see nothing wrong with Lamb in cash, either.

Outfield

Adam Jones FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - OAK (Smith) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.61 DK - 10.54
Mark Trumbo FD 3100 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Smith) Park - @BAL
FD - 13 DK - 9.77

I could have gone with Trey Mancini here as well, but just threw him with Chris Davis at 1B. It's hard to deny the Orioles here, but it's also hard to ignore how obvious they are. The ownership is going to play a huge role on this slate and if you can somewhat narrow it down now, you have an advantage. In baseball, you don't want to target guys who will be more than 50-60% owned, no matter what. It's just not that easy to predict baseball and the chance of being pitched around is always there. There isn't much else to say about Chris Smith. Both Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones are better against lefties with respective .351 and .362 wOBA's. Jones is a lot safer and an elite cash game play, compared to Trumbo, who I like more in tournaments. Camden Yards is going to help the O's a good amount here and if they can get Chris Smith out of there early, it can get ugly. The A's have a few good bullpen arms, but they only see the game with a lead. If the Orioles get off to a quick start, they will be the bottom-end of the bullpen, which stinks.

Khris Davis FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.86 DK - 8.96

We haven't touched on the Athletics just yet, but they are definitely a viable stack. They just don't have many guys that profile as strong cash game options. We run into our first stand-along elite play in Khris Davis. Davis is one of the most powerful bats in the entire league and would probably lead the league in HR'f if his home was a better park. He plays half of his games in the Oakland coliseum, which is regarded as a bottom 3 park for hitting home runs. He's still found a way to put up 42 last year and 33 already this year. He now moves into Camden Yards and may be able to headbutt it out to left. If you're watching this at-bat, a Khris Davis HR looks like a popup off the bat. It just ends up going like 400 feet and landing in the 6th row. He faces off with Ubaldo Jimenez, who is a very underwhelming arm in 2017. He's allowed a .344 wOBA to righties and has given up 26 homers in just over 100 innings of work. I debated between Yonder Alonso and Khris Davis for HR of the night and decided on Davis. He'll be a mainstay in my lineups and I don't think he will be more than 20-25% owned. That's not too bad for a slate like this.

Matt Kemp FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - SEA (Albers) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.81 DK - 9.01

Raise your kid to be a pitcher. With the arms floating through the major leagues right now, I can't help but think something is going wrong. While we always run into a point like this in the season, it seems we're there a bit sooner this year. It's very rare that you see a guy like Andrew Albers or Chris Smith pitch at 31 and 36, but both are happening tonight. We have 2 guys on the White Sox who are better at giving up homers than walking in a straight line. There just seems to be an influx of absolutely atrocious arms on a nightly basis. Albers is a lefty and has never done anything at 31 years old. He's been good in AAA this year, but is a career 4.68 xFIP pitcher in the minors. Matt Kemp is a major league hitter and one that smashes major league pitching. He has struggled against lefties on the year, but has been hurt for most of it. He has always hit lefties better and there is no reason to think that will change. He's cheap enough for cash games around the industry and could go a bit under-owned with the popular options up top.

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