Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/21/17
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This one is bound to be chalk, so take that for what it's worth. Camden Yard is the best hitter's park on the slate, and Chris Smith is the owner of a career 5.62 FIP, so it's safe to assume we'll be seeing heavy ownership on the Baltimore bats tonight. That dampens our enthusiasm a little, but not enough to recommend the fade -- there's just too much upside here to take a complete pass. Eight hitters among the Orioles' projected starters have an ISO over .190 vs. RHP this season, and the only one who doesn't is Mark Trumbo (.178) and he hit 47 home runs last year. You can literally play anybody you want, but Trey Mancini might want to be the first place you look. He's putting up massive reverse splits in his rookie season with a .397 wOBA and .277 ISO vs. RHP, and you might catch him underowned -- at least on FanDuel -- if the 1-4 stack is highly popular. Re: Chris Smith, for a guy who's been hanging around the bigs for nearly a decade, there's not an extensive track record on him. He's got 131 IP under his belt, though, and during that time righties have given him the most trouble (6.00 FIP, .340 wOBA).
This one's all about Robert Gsellman, who's been blasted by pretty much everybody this season. After coming into the year with some decent hype, he's struggled badly, yielding identical .370 wOBAs to righties and lefties, and a .200+ ISO to both, as well. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks' projected starters have a cumulative .217 ISO and .356 wOBA vs. RHP this season, and the middle 1/3 of the order are the obvious building blocks. Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez are all in the .280-.290 range for ISO vs. RHP this season, and Martinez (.364) is the only one of the trio with a wOBA below .400. It gets dicier after those three, but Peralta (.363 wOBA), Pollock (.337), Decalso (.335) and Ketel Marte (.338) are all worth considering.
This one's a bit of a game theory play, because I'm guessing the combo of AT&T Park and a low-ish Vegas line will probably keep ownership levels on Milwaukee bats in check. And of course, the power-sapping environment in San Fran always drags down upside, but we still like all the Brewers lefties in their matchup with Chris Stratton tonight. Admittedly, we don't have much of a sample on which to judge the 26-year-old rookie, but what we've seen tells us he has big problems with left-handed sticks. Yeah, he's faced only 71 of them in his big-league career, but a .388 wOBA and more walks than Ks is too much to ignore on a slate that just doesn't offer us much in terms of under-the-radar offenses. Meanwhile, the Brewers have three lefties with an ISO over .200 vs. RHP this season (Thames, Walker, Shaw) and if Stephen Vogt gets the start, they've got four -- which astute mathematicians will tell us is about half their lineup. And we don't think have have to fade Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana or Keon Broxton, either. Braun is obviously the most appealing; he's got a .268 ISO and .384 wOBA vs. RHP this season, and the lack of stud pitchers means you should be able to afford his price tag.
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